OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: They Blamed Canada

[Peat]

“People are making a lot out of one game.”

People after the first Bengals game “see Kenny is good, look what he can do when he isn’t hamstrung by Canada. 400 yards, Kenny looked great out there!”

I believe the general consensus was “Kenny looked better without Canada let’s see if he can keep it up” then he got hurt.

This. There's a reason a lot of people are bringing up "they need to see more of Kenny" as a reason for wanting him to start the next game, it's because it was only one game and its meaningless unless he can keep it up. Yeah, a lot of people said he looked great, I'd say he looked good to great, but looking great for one game isn't great. I saw a lot of caveats about that.

Also there's a few here about the Bengals being absolutely crap too now I look back too.

edit: Fwiw, watching the Bengals explode like rotten melons twice in about a month to the Steelers has tempered any optimism I might have taken from either game a lot.

 

[T1K]

To me bringing Wilson in is exactly what delaying the QB search looks like. It's handing a year to an almost certainly not the answer guy - who even if he is the answer only buys you a couple of years before you start again - rather than giving it to a guy who has slightly better odds and a lot more mileage if you hit.

The only way to find a franchise QB is through the draft, you’re not wrong there. However, if we’re going the FA route, I’d argue it would be difficult to find a better value option than Russ Wilson. Going into the season with just Pickett is a wasted year.

Russ was productive this year:
3070 pass yd
26 TD
8 INT
341 rush yd
3 rush TD
98 QB rating

 

[Peat]

The only way to find a franchise QB is through the draft, you’re not wrong there. However, if we’re going the FA route, I’d argue it would be difficult to find a better value option than Russ Wilson. Going into the season with just Pickett is a wasted year.

Russ was productive this year:
3070 pass yd
26 TD
8 INT
341 rush yd
3 rush TD
98 QB rating

If he's still a fully functional QB, why are Denver moving on?

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

If Russ gets cut I imagine he’d be signing for a 1 year prove it deal type of situation-- probably a 2 year deal with some sort of opt out. He already got paid, and I doubt any teams would be willing to offer him any significant guaranteed $ at this point of his career.

I don’t see why we should delay the QB search another year. Get a guy in there who can actually compete with Pickett. I hate the idea of crowning Pickett as the undisputed starter, make him work for it.

It's the Opportunity Cost.
You spend more $$ on a QB, you'll have less for other parts of your roster.

This team needs to get it's Offensive and Defensive Lines in order before they turn their attention to QB. There isn't going to be a QB in FA or draft that's going to be miles better than the trio we have.

Are there better QB's vs our 3? Certainly, but not at the margins of play or performance those QB's are going to command.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

If he's still a fully functional QB, why are Denver moving on?

Because Peyton can’t stand him. His extension hasn’t even started yet so he will count as dead cap 85 million over 2 seasons so most likely a post june 1 cut. He feels pressure that he isn’t there he is living off of screens short throws and occasionally deep passes out of play action go ahead and mock nix or penix to Denver

 

[T1K]

It's the Opportunity Cost.
You spend more $$ on a QB, you'll have less for other parts of your roster.

This team needs to get it's Offensive and Defensive Lines in order before they turn their attention to QB. There isn't going to be a QB in FA or draft that's going to be miles better than the trio we have.

Are there better QB's vs our 3? Certainly, but not at the margins of play or performance those QB's are going to command.

Russ had a much better season statistically than any of our QBs. Our trio of QBs is pretty terrible, not a good benchmark that we should be striving for.

 

[T1K]

If he's still a fully functional QB, why are Denver moving on?

Do you think those stats I posted aren’t that of a functional QB?

They’re moving on from him because he’s not worth his contract. There’s probably some personality issues, but that’s just speculation.

 

[Peat]

Do you think those stats I posted aren’t that of a functional QB?

They’re moving on from him because he’s not worth his contract. There’s probably some personality issues, but that’s just speculation.

I think statistics can be misleading.

And I think there's an obvious contradiction between 7th best QB by the stats not being worth keeping when he's 9th highest paid QB next year that begs questions as to what the hell is going on.



In any case, I just don't want a well paid FA QB. I think it's a move that keeps a team mired in the middle most times unless they're getting a chance to get a Stafford.

If we must go there, target a young-ish Mayfield-esque type who might be good when not being misused... which is pretty much what Pickett is anyway.

And as such, I'd rather go all in on Pickett. The bet pays off, you're laughing. The bet goes sour, then maybe you're in a situation that will force real change.


But in the specific case of Wilson, there's so much noise around who he is or isn't at this point, that I'd like to find lots of info about who he is before commenting on him as an individual. Broncos fans don't seem shocked or upset by this, which isn't exactly good news...

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Russ had a much better season statistically than any of our QBs. Our trio of QBs is pretty terrible, not a good benchmark that we should be striving for.

Well whatever stats Wilson had isn't going to be replicated in Pitt due to Tomlin's neanderthal football. Do you think Wilson would put up those numbers here?

Furthermore, if this is the offense we're going to have, then why pay a handoff monkey millions of dollars over what we currently have? Again Wilson is better but not at the cost he'll command.

And if you go headfirst into the QB market, then again the Oline/Dline gets neglected. Which is a significant part of this team's problem. In hindsight they would've been better off passing on KP and shoring up the trenches. Not calling the FO idiotic for this approach bc I thought KP was the correct pick there.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Tomlin is such an idiot. Talks about not being surprised about Rudy and his aggressiveness and confidence and abilties but then kept playing Mitch anyway. Imagine telling the media "Yeah he's good and we're not shocked" and then wonder why tf did you play Mitch over him then?

 

[T1K]

@Peat @Buddy Bizarre
Replying to both of you this way because it’s easier on mobile lol.

I would only be interested in Russ Wilson if he signs a short term deal for below average starter money - basically the contract we signed Mitch to before drafting Pickett. If Russ commands more money, he’s a pass.

If you want to go the reclamation project route like Mayfield, that would mean we’d be looking at Justin Fields - that’s more of a pass for me than Russ… Fields will require assets to acquire him and be in need of an extension, most likely asking for a Danny Dimes type of contract.

If you guys think our best course of action is to keep Pickett and bring in no competition, we’ll just have to agree to disagree.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

The only way to find a franchise QB is through the draft, you’re not wrong there. However, if we’re going the FA route, I’d argue it would be difficult to find a better value option than Russ Wilson. Going into the season with just Pickett is a wasted year.

Russ was productive this year:
3070 pass yd
26 TD
8 INT
341 rush yd
3 rush TD
98 QB rating

Rooney-Tomlin's Ego >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> actually winning anything meaningful.

Meaning that keeping the record of non-losing seasons, among other things, means more to them than making the right moves to win another Superbowl. Hell, make that to make the playoffs at all let alone win a game in them.

They are not morons. They know that the plan that they are following will never lead to winning anything when it counts. So, the only conclusion to make is that what matters to them is something other than the playoffs and Super Bowls.

 

[T1K]

https://x.com/schultz_report/status/1740121494343045508?s=46&t=YE2NPYWvXyArt8F6TGk8yA

More color on the Russ Wilson situation. PURELY a financial decision.

 

[Peat]

@T1K - Fair enough and happy to disagree but -

If Wilson has top 10 QB stats, why is he signing anywhere for Trubisky money?

And while that Schultz stuff looks v. informative, I refuse to believe any genuinely good QB is getting benched over an injury guarantee. I think there's got to be something more there.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Rudolph threw for 9 intended air yards per target vs the Bengals.

Pickett threw for 8.5.

Hell, by this metric, Trubisky was very aggressive.

The difference, at least post Canada, isn't about opening up the offence. It's about looking for Pickens... and I think it's about the Bengals being really bad.

Thanks I was hoping someone would share this kind of data. All I kept thinking was GO had an 82-yard TD and we’re talking like it was bombs away when we all saw that pass was within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage which is anathema.

 

[T1K]

@T1K - Fair enough and happy to disagree but -

If Wilson has top 10 QB stats, why is he signing anywhere for Trubisky money?

And while that Schultz stuff looks v. informative, I refuse to believe any genuinely good QB is getting benched over an injury guarantee. I think there's got to be something more there.

Which team is going to offer him top 10 QB money?

At this point of his career, a team with a good foundation offering him an opportunity to start is really all he should be looking for, but maybe money is his true motivation? Time will tell.

 

[Peat]

Thanks I was hoping someone would share this kind of data. All I kept thinking was GO had an 82-yard TD and we’re talking like it was bombs away when we all saw that pass was within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage which is anathema.

Tbf Rudolph threw plenty of bombs. But yeah, some of the conversation in some places seems tilted towards a more hyperbolic view.

I dunno if anyone's released the fancy passing target chart to get the ideal view.

Which team is going to offer him top 10 QB money?

At this point of his career, a team with a good foundation offering him an opportunity to start is really all he should be looking for, but maybe money is his true motivation? Time will tell.

Well as things stand, Derek Carr is projected to have a higher cap hit than Wilson next year.

Or to put it another way, there's always some psycho when it comes to QBs.

There's also a comfy bit of ground between top 10 and Trubisky money. Right now the 16th highest paid QB next year will get 23m. That's both quite a distance from top 10 and quite a distance from Trubisky.

How likely is it that out of all the teams with a good foundation interested in Wilson, one won't go to that money as a concrete expression of "the other teams say they like you, we're showing we like you"?

Also... how are the Steelers going to be the team with the best foundation calling? They have no OC and no recent history of hiring good ones. The OL is a problem. And the HC maybe isn't going to be a fan of letting Russell cook.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Tbf Rudolph threw plenty of bombs. But yeah, some of the conversation in some places seems tilted towards a more hyperbolic view.

I dunno if anyone's released the fancy passing target chart to get the ideal view.

Yeah it’s a perception v reality thing for me. And I’m fine if the perception is reality, I just don’t know that it is and were always quick to jump to conclusions.

 

[T1K]

Tbf Rudolph threw plenty of bombs. But yeah, some of the conversation in some places seems tilted towards a more hyperbolic view.

I dunno if anyone's released the fancy passing target chart to get the ideal view.



Well as things stand, Derek Carr is projected to have a higher cap hit than Wilson next year.

Or to put it another way, there's always some psycho when it comes to QBs.

There's also a comfy bit of ground between top 10 and Trubisky money. Right now the 16th highest paid QB next year will get 23m. That's both quite a distance from top 10 and quite a distance from Trubisky.

How likely is it that out of all the teams with a good foundation interested in Wilson, one won't go to that money as a concrete expression of "the other teams say they like you, we're showing we like you"?

Also... how are the Steelers going to be the team with the best foundation calling? They have no OC and no recent history of hiring good ones. The OL is a problem. And the HC maybe isn't going to be a fan of letting Russell cook.

There’s a huge gap between the cheapest FA “starting” QB (Jimmy G, 24 mil AAV) and the “backup” QB (Jacoby Brissett, 8 mil AAV). I’m suggesting giving Russ Wilson around 15 mil AAV (I overstated the Mitch contract a bit, mixed up his total contract value with his AAV). If Russ wants +20 mil, that’s an easy pass.

The QB market is always crazy and powered by desperation. Of course we can’t rule out a team offering something insane, but if we can buy low on a future HOFer, we should explore the idea.

As for the foundation of the Steelers, it seems better than Denver — our skill position players are better than theirs along with a better defense. The OC decision should be happening around the same time as free agency, maybe a little before so there should be some cohesiveness in that stuff, I’d hope.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Thanks I was hoping someone would share this kind of data. All I kept thinking was GO had an 82-yard TD and we’re talking like it was bombs away when we all saw that pass was within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage which is anathema.

This article has multiple charts showing pass distance from the line of scrimmage broken down various ways through week 15:

Steelers Passing Locations: Receivers Through Week 15

Today, I wanted to provide the other side of the coin to my Steelers Quarterback Passing Locations, looking at and providing takeaways on Pittsburgh’s receiving data for the regular season thus far. Here is the last receivers article I did following week eight, which will be referenced in this...

steelersdepot.com

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

If he's still a fully functional QB, why are Denver moving on?

I don’t think the Denver locker room is big enough for Russell Wilson and Sean Payton. Payton wants his guy at QB.
I still don’t trust Wilson enough to sign him

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Of all the teams they ran the playoffs odds for, the Steelers have the second lowest odds. 18 percent. Only the Raiders were worse at 12 percent.

NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering Week 17 of 2023 season

A new Next Gen Stats model provides the playoff probability of each NFL team still in contention. Which squads can help/hurt their postseason chances the most based on their performances in Week 17?

www.nfl.com

 

[JTG]

I don't even know where to start with this team. OL would be the natural starting point - particularly C and RT. I then would go after a DB and then a MLB. If our MLBs don't get decimated with injuries, we should be OK. Could be a good pick to take a nose also and move Benton to DE because he's fast and explosive enough.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Which team is going to offer him top 10 QB money?

At this point of his career, a team with a good foundation offering him an opportunity to start is really all he should be looking for, but maybe money is his true motivation? Time will tell.

Financial implications, etc here:

Has Russell Wilson played his last game for the Broncos? Why Denver is benching him now, and what's next

Wilson's five-year, $242.6 million contract signed in 2022 carries plenty of potential salary cap pain if Wilson isn't behind center in 2024.

www.espn.com

 

[T1K]

Financial implications, etc here:

Has Russell Wilson played his last game for the Broncos? Why Denver is benching him now, and what's next

Wilson's five-year, $242.6 million contract signed in 2022 carries plenty of potential salary cap pain if Wilson isn't behind center in 2024.

www.espn.com

That’s a financial hit to the Broncos… the team that signs him after he is cut gives him a new contract. I’m not advocating for trading for Russ.