OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Steelers need a new ball thrower for the handball game thingy

[Goalie_Bob]

i'm fine with gambling with the lower picks not the first when we have so many other needs. when we have those filled and still need a QB i'm all for not only trading up for one but also taking a chance on one.

So basically never. No team has every spot filled. And if you don't have a QB, it doesn't really matter.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

The problem is their BPA's scores get inflated by what their needs are.

It's no surprise that Harris was the #1 pick last year when they had the worst stable of RB's entering the draft.
Muth was the same- they had no TE's to write home about

Last year's draft was "get weapons for Ben for 1 more kick at the can"

You can go back years and find that this is the Steelers' draft strategy. Back in the late 90's they could have had Jevon Kearse (who was clearly the better pre draft player) yet choose Troy Edwards after the run on WR's.

Understood.

There are a couple Troy Edwards-ish examples but those are from a prior regime. Generally speaking, taking a guy who's on your board when you pick is not a "reach." Everyone wants to trade down and sometimes that works but people are all like "just do it" as if there aren't a bunch of moving parts and risks.

 

[The Old Master]

So basically never. No team has every spot filled. And if you don't have a QB, it doesn't really matter.

not never, just picking wisely

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

I just struggle a little with this line of thinking. You’re definitely not wrong but it’s just such a gamble to pass up someone you may like in this year’s class and hope a better one is available sometime in the next couple of years. It’s so unlikely the Steelers will be in a position to take someone without some serious question marks.

I don’t want them to take a QB just to take one. So if they aren’t sold I hope they pass. But if they don’t, I think we’ll be having a really similar conversation next year, and the next year, and the next year until they just take a shot on one.

Roethlisberger falling into their lap was such a fluke. I hope they don’t wait another 20 years to try to find their guy.

I think Tomlin knows AR2 has a breaking point.

Dude is already on the worst run in franchise history during the modern era for playoff futility,.

I know we all say he has a lifetime job, but I can’t imagine Tomlin getting another 3-5 year run of futility ala the 80s, given his woeful playoff failures the last decade.

I despise Tomlin, but he isn’t stupid either. He has to know if he doesn’t find a franchise guy ASAP and start winning in the playoffs again, AR2 may finally wise up.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Except the TE room hasn’t been good since Heath retired they tried Ebron Macdonald. There’s reports Williams was the pick if Harris didn’t fall to them

You're proving my point. They took Muth since their TE cupboard was bare. Not because Muth was the BPA

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

No matter when you pick them it is a crap shoot. Might as well get it started as soon as possible.

And that doesn't mean I would do it. I probably wouldn't. But if the Steelers think Willis can be a franchise guy, they should take him.

Another thing, there is nothing more exciting from a marketing standpoint than a team that needs a QB taking a QB in the first round. This is still a business and having an exciting story throughout the offseason and during the season can be gold for the team. Regardless of how good the guy is in the end.

Why would you do it this year when there is significant consensus that the QB's next year will be better?

 

[Peat]

i'm fine with gambling with the lower picks not the first when we have so many other needs. when we have those filled and still need a QB i'm all for not only trading up for one but also taking a chance on one.

I mean I'm perfectly happy to push it back, but it's still going to be a gamble and there's never going to be a time we don't have other needs. And if we push it back too far, we're gonna have a young kid developing when we're otherwise ready.

 

[The Old Master]

I mean I'm perfectly happy to push it back, but it's still going to be a gamble and there's never going to be a time we don't have other needs. And if we push it back too far, we're gonna have a young kid developing when we're otherwise ready.

true, but if you can get better odds, (just by waiting a very short year) you would be foolish not to.
edit; and gaining a great player as a bonus.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

You're proving my point. They took Muth since their TE cupboard was bare. Not because Muth was the BPA

He was there best player on the board and the the o line was also bare they went into that draft knowing they needed a LT RG and C they could have took any of those positions. KC would have took Muth had we past on him

 

[Peat]

true, but if you can get better odds, (just by waiting a very short year) you would be foolish not to.
edit; and gaining a great player as a bonus.

Well that goes without saying, as does the fact that if they pick one this year, they don't think that'll happen.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

He was there best player on the board and the the o line was also bare they went into that draft knowing they needed a LT RG and C they could have took any of those positions. KC would have took Muth had we past on him

Show me where Muth was ranked that high on other teams' boards

 

[Pengwins]

I’m getting that bad feeling that the Steelers will trade up, take Willis, and he will bust lol

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Show me where Muth was ranked that high on other teams' boards

Reports that Jacksonville considered him most people has him him TE 1 going into 2020 but pitts went off. Heck he is a consensus 1st pick in re draft of 2021

 

[xlm34]

I think Tomlin knows AR2 has a breaking point.

Dude is already on the worst run in franchise history during the modern era for playoff futility,.

I know we all say he has a lifetime job, but I can’t imagine Tomlin getting another 3-5 year run of futility ala the 80s, given his woeful playoff failures the last decade.

I despise Tomlin, but he isn’t stupid either. He has to know if he doesn’t find a franchise guy ASAP and start winning in the playoffs again, AR2 may finally wise up.

Everything they’ve done this offseason points to them “getting it”. I reserve the right to take back that statement if they trade a bunch to move up for Willis though.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Reaching has less to do with a team’s evaluation of a particular player and more to do with the value of the player in the grand scheme of the draft and their particular skill set. The Steelers can think Willis is a Top 10 pick all they want but that wouldn’t make it not a reach if they decided to draft him at 20 or trade up in order to get him.

Now let’s stop with the preemptive apologetics for the Steelers potentially making a bad pick in the first round.

 

[Peat]

Reaching has less to do with a team’s evaluation of a particular player and more to do with the value of the player in the grand scheme of the draft and their particular skill set. The Steelers can think Willis is a Top 10 pick all they want but that wouldn’t make it not a reach if they decided to draft him at 20 or trade up in order to get him.

Now let’s stop with the preemptive apologetics for the Steelers potentially making a bad pick in the first round.

But a ton of mocks and rumours have Willis going before 20? Or do you mean pure talent, completely ignoring position and value?

 

[The Old Master]

I despise Tomlin, but he isn’t stupid either. He has to know if he doesn’t find a franchise guy ASAP and start winning in the playoffs again, AR2 may finally wise up.

i can't despise the guy. he's a good dude. he's trying to be a father to a bunch of kid's that never had a father and just hit the lotto. (aka tony d. without the coaching smarts) and while i admire that part of him, he is lacking as a coach.

 

[DanielPlainview]

But a ton of mocks and rumours have Willis going before 20? Or do you mean pure talent, completely ignoring position and value?

One way I look at it is in the context of multiple drafts. If you had all the players from the last 4 or 5 drafts available today, where would you rank Willis amongst the QBs? I’d give him a second round grade somewhere amongst DeShone Kizer, Jordan Love, and Jalen Hurts.

 

[Empoleon8771]

But a ton of mocks and rumours have Willis going before 20? Or do you mean pure talent, completely ignoring position and value?

I think mock drafts are all over the place, to the point where you can't even make a prediction for what happens in the draft.

One mock draft from today has Pickett going #6 overall to Carolina, while another one has him going to Atlanta at #43 overall.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Also I just saw this on Reddit:

 

[bigdaddyk88]

One way I look at it is in the context of multiple drafts. If you had all the players from the last 4 or 5 drafts available today, where would you rank Willis amongst the QBs? I’d give him a second round grade somewhere amongst DeShone Kizer, Jordan Love, and Jalen Hurts.

But Kizer and love did not fall to the 2nd round they were both late 1st round picks. I do think the lack of real progress for Lance might keep Willis out of the top 10 but he would go before Mac jones if he was in last year class.

 

[Peat]

Measuring by multiple draft makes some sense, but you can only run a draft by what's in front of you, and while there's a ton of variance between mocks, you can use them together to make a consensus.

Let's look at this a different way by using The Athletic's consensus big board. That has Willis as 29OA. So 20th is a reach on paper if you go by rankings rather than asking where guys fall in tiers, but QBs always go earlier than pure talent suggests, right? 2021, 3 out of the top 5 QBs go earlier than ranked, with the exception being Fields falling and Lawrence being unable to rise any higher.

2020, it's 3 out of 4, 2019, 3 out of 3. So is it reaching if every team in the league does it? Or is every QB a reach? Either way, does it matter if it's not some gigantic leap from 3rd round to 1st?

I don't really want Willis (or any of the other QBs). But Willis at 20 doesn't seem a reach. Which possibly represents the consensus being stupid, but that one is it what it is.

 

[DanielPlainview]

But Kizer and love did not fall to the 2nd round they were both late 1st round picks. I do think the lack of real progress for Lance might keep Willis out of the top 10 but he would go before Mac jones if he was in last year class.

Kizer was 52nd overall, so mid-2nd. Green Bay reached on Love.

Willis probably wouldn't go ahead of Mac Jones. Kyle Trask, sure.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Measuring by multiple draft makes some sense, but you can only run a draft by what's in front of you, and while there's a ton of variance between mocks, you can use them together to make a consensus.

Let's look at this a different way by using The Athletic's consensus big board. That has Willis as 29OA. So 20th is a reach on paper if you go by rankings rather than asking where guys fall in tiers, but QBs always go earlier than pure talent suggests, right? 2021, 3 out of the top 5 QBs go earlier than ranked, with the exception being Fields falling and Lawrence being unable to rise any higher.

2020, it's 3 out of 4, 2019, 3 out of 3. So is it reaching if every team in the league does it? Or is every QB a reach? Either way, does it matter if it's not some gigantic leap from 3rd round to 1st?

I don't really want Willis (or any of the other QBs). But Willis at 20 doesn't seem a reach. Which possibly represents the consensus being stupid, but that one is it what it is.

Teams do feel pressure to get their next QB, and subsequently they overdraft. That's really what I'm getting at; I don't want the Steelers to do that. Willis has all the signs of a guy who will struggle in the NFL with throwing accuracy and game processing being weaknesses. His hype is almost entirely on some mythical potential and his mobility.

 

[Peat]

Teams do feel pressure to get their next QB, and subsequently they overdraft. That's really what I'm getting at; I don't want the Steelers to do that. Willis has all the signs of a guy who will struggle in the NFL with throwing accuracy and game processing being weaknesses. His hype is almost entirely on some mythical potential and his mobility.

Right, but if every team does it, how are we ever meant to get a guy if we don't?

I guess a better question is do you object to taking a QB above where he's ranked always, or just this lot because you think they suck?