OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Sneaking up onto training camp

[pistolpete11]

I accept its always going to be risk vs upside.

I do not believe Fields type athleticism has any particular correlation to a QB's upside.

I do believe that a high pressure to sack ratio is an unacceptable risk barring some weird tic to their game. Of all the NFL QBs drafted since they started measuring this, Burrow is the only guy to have a high pressure to sack ratio through college and become a star. Burrow is a freak. If we'd known now what we know now about pressure to sack, he'd have been regarded as high risk. Mayfield is the next best QB with that stat. Everyone else is a bust (barring an unlikely career resurgence from Fields). That makes sense to me as the most likely reason for a QB to accrue this stat - and it is very sticky from NCAA to NFL - is they simply don't realise they're in trouble quick enough because they don't read the game quick enough, and that's a killer. Guys like Burrow who do read the game quick enough to get the right pass regularly, but take big risks to get the right pass and who don't have the athleticism to escape sacks are rare. I suspect how often he gets sacked also might have something to do with the constant injuries too.

For me, for upside, I am looking first and foremost for things that indicate they have a high football processing speed and are big moment players. To me, those are the two biggest indicators of upside. Arm talent comes next. Like athleticism if it's there, but I'm mainly looking for the strength and agility to escape sacks. JJ McCarthy had nowhere near enough passing responsibilities in college to feel safe about him not to mention he just fires it without touch a lot, but I think he showed enough big time moments and ability to handle pure passing downs that I was interested. Strong arm too. I think Bo Nix's stats and tape suggest he might have that processing too, although I'd be a bit more nervous there given his long college history. Anthony Richardson should have gone back to the NCAA and learn to pass, but the reports that he aced his S2 test and his very low pressure to sack ratio makes me intrigued in the idea he could be the next Josh Allen. All three guys have big risks, but I can see upside.

I look at Jalen Milroe and I don't see upside and I see unacceptably large risks.

I don't know if accuracy is considered part of arm talent, but it's more important to me than having a strong arm or athleticism, too.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Accuracy throwing with anticipation and processing are the most impactful traits.

 

[WickedWrister]

I accept its always going to be risk vs upside.

I do not believe Fields type athleticism has any particular correlation to a QB's upside.

I do believe that a high pressure to sack ratio is an unacceptable risk barring some weird tic to their game. Of all the NFL QBs drafted since they started measuring this, Burrow is the only guy to have a high pressure to sack ratio through college and become a star. Burrow is a freak. If we'd known now what we know now about pressure to sack, he'd have been regarded as high risk. Mayfield is the next best QB with that stat. Everyone else is a bust (barring an unlikely career resurgence from Fields). That makes sense to me as the most likely reason for a QB to accrue this stat - and it is very sticky from NCAA to NFL - is they simply don't realise they're in trouble quick enough because they don't read the game quick enough, and that's a killer. Guys like Burrow who do read the game quick enough to get the right pass regularly, but take big risks to get the right pass and who don't have the athleticism to escape sacks are rare. I suspect how often he gets sacked also might have something to do with the constant injuries too.

For me, for upside, I am looking first and foremost for things that indicate they have a high football processing speed and are big moment players. To me, those are the two biggest indicators of upside. Arm talent comes next. Like athleticism if it's there, but I'm mainly looking for the strength and agility to escape sacks. JJ McCarthy had nowhere near enough passing responsibilities in college to feel safe about him not to mention he just fires it without touch a lot, but I think he showed enough big time moments and ability to handle pure passing downs that I was interested. Strong arm too. I think Bo Nix's stats and tape suggest he might have that processing too, although I'd be a bit more nervous there given his long college history. Anthony Richardson should have gone back to the NCAA and learn to pass, but the reports that he aced his S2 test and his very low pressure to sack ratio makes me intrigued in the idea he could be the next Josh Allen. All three guys have big risks, but I can see upside.

I look at Jalen Milroe and I don't see upside and I see unacceptably large risks.

Could include Lamar in this group as well. I think P2S is an insightful metric but it's not the be all end all, there's hits and misses across the spectrum.

You mentioned Bo Nix from this years class as being a guy that excelled in this stat and you're right. But the #1 and #2 picks Williams and Daniels had P2S higher than 20% their last year in college, especially Daniels. So while it's an important part of the eval, I don't think NFL decision makers exclude prospects on the sole basis of it.

I mean obviously you want guys to take as few sacks as possible, but the QB archetype has changed over the last 20 years. The ability to extend plays to break down NFL defenses is becoming almost a requirement of the position now.

 

[Peat]

I don't know if accuracy is considered part of arm talent, but it's more important to me than having a strong arm or athleticism, too.

I used arm talent to cover accuracy and arm strength, but I suspect that's not how most people use it. I prefer accuracy to strength if we're dividing stuff up, but am willing to sacrifice accuracy a little if needed and do really appreciate the way elite arm strength can open things up, and I'm not just talking the moonballs either. You want to stick the ball in a tight window, having real zip and velocity makes a difference.

 

[WickedWrister]

Re: Allar, I don't know where I saw it, if this video was posted in here already then I apologize. It's 2 years old at this point but it shows his improvement in his mechanics.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Re: Allar, I don't know where I saw it, if this video was posted in here already then I apologize. It's 2 years old at this point but it shows his improvement in his mechanics.

Kotelnicki is going a godsend for him. It sucks Andy will be a HC in 2 years

 

[WickedWrister]

Kotelnicki is going a godsend for him. It sucks Andy will be a HC in 2 years

Definitely some week 1 recency bias but this feels like PSU's best chance to win the Big 10 since Franklin got there.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Definitely some week 1 recency bias but this feels like PSU's best chance to win the Big 10 since Franklin got there.

The schedule was already set up as a 2 game season at usc in October and home for Ohio State in November but going from 45 percent motion to 65 in ine game under Andy. Having multiple plays over 40 yards and Andy building a swagger for him is great

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Could include Lamar in this group as well. I think P2S is an insightful metric but it's not the be all end all, there's hits and misses across the spectrum.

You mentioned Bo Nix from this years class as being a guy that excelled in this stat and you're right. But the #1 and #2 picks Williams and Daniels had P2S higher than 20% their last year in college, especially Daniels. So while it's an important part of the eval, I don't think NFL decision makers exclude prospects on the sole basis of it.

I mean obviously you want guys to take as few sacks as possible, but the QB archetype has changed over the last 20 years. The ability to extend plays to break down NFL defenses is becoming almost a requirement of the position now.

View attachment 905051

Rudolph is 2nd in this stat? And we dumped him for Russell Wilson?

 

[The Old Master]

Rudolph is 2nd in this stat? And we dumped him for Russell Wilson?

not so much we dumped him. we treated him like crap, so he bailed. imo

 

[Coastal Kev]

not so much we dumped him. we treated him like crap, so he bailed. imo

Exactly

 

[WickedWrister]

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Rudolph is 2nd in this stat? And we dumped him for Russell Wilson?

Yeah we dumped a back up qb for a guy whose won a sb

not so much we dumped him. we treated him like crap, so he bailed. imo

He is a backup Qb the Titans signed him because he wasn’t a threat to Levis

 

[The Old Master]

Yeah we dumped a back up qb for a guy whose won a sb


He is a backup Qb the Titans signed him because he wasn’t a threat to Levis

so how is this loser doing?

 

[Coastal Kev]

Yeah we dumped a back up qb for a guy whose won a sb


He is a backup Qb the Titans signed him because he wasn’t a threat to Levis

Remember your word of the day- DUMPED. Because that's what Russell Wilson does 34% of the time, dumps it off.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Yeah we dumped a back up qb for a guy whose won a sb


He is a backup Qb the Titans signed him because he wasn’t a threat to Levis

Peyton Manning has won a super bowl too. Should we offer him a contact?

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Remember your word of the day- DUMPED. Because that's what Russell Wilson does 34% of the time, dumps it off.

Would you call him a dump-ster?

 

[xlm34]

Even if the QB room is a dumpster fire, not bringing back Rudolph was the right call.

 

[WickedWrister]

Rudolph is 2nd in this stat? And we dumped him for Russell Wilson?

This was not my main takeaway but yes lol, at least in terms of NFL P2S ratio. Mahomes, Rudolph, Drew Lock, Mike White, and Josh Allen being your top 5 shows there's some variance with this stat

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Even if the QB room is a dumpster fire, not bringing back Rudolph was the right call.

This is a bad post

 

[Night Shift]

Ahhh.. Rudolph the Reindeer and Howard the Duck Hodges. The perfect yinzer children's book that will lasts thousands and thousands of years.

How did the deer and the duck bring the Steelers tob.500 with cool dude Tomlin? With pictures and a coloring book.

 

[xlm34]

This is a bad post

So is pining for Mason Rudolph.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

This is a bad post

No it isn’t at best Mason is a batch type that you go 2-2 with.

 

[Peat]

Could include Lamar in this group as well. I think P2S is an insightful metric but it's not the be all end all, there's hits and misses across the spectrum.

You mentioned Bo Nix from this years class as being a guy that excelled in this stat and you're right. But the #1 and #2 picks Williams and Daniels had P2S higher than 20% their last year in college, especially Daniels. So while it's an important part of the eval, I don't think NFL decision makers exclude prospects on the sole basis of it.

I mean obviously you want guys to take as few sacks as possible, but the QB archetype has changed over the last 20 years. The ability to extend plays to break down NFL defenses is becoming almost a requirement of the position now.

View attachment 905051

Through college excludes Caleb Williams. I thought it excluded Lamar Jackson too when I typed that, but misremembered as he's just over. He is just over due to one nightmare year and two okay years at around 17% though - his median year is below 20%. I'd happily rephrase it to median college year though as this is about the guys who just consistently get caught, not guys who spike bad.

You're right it doesn't exclude Jayden Daniels, and I'd have absolutely not picked him. Between his Pressure to Sack *and* being an older guy with only good season, he screams bust city. He could be amazing like Burrow but odds are not in his favour. Yeah, people succeed with those two things, but the misses outweigh the hits.

Finally, I think the importance of extending plays is part of what makes pressure to sack so important. Can't extend a play you get sacked on! Sure, extending plays involves risk, but by and large good players mitigate those risks. But also, when it comes to kids coming from the NCAA, I just look at it as the best diagnostic for processing publicly available. Infallible? Hell no. But someone should be able to tell you why it's wrong in this particular instance. You can make a case that Daniels capacity for big time throws under pressure means he can process and he'll claw back all the sacks he takes and be worth it, like Burrow. I don't particularly believe it but you can make it.

If there's a case for that 'Bama QB, I'm all ears. But my guess is if he does things so well you can ignore a 30% pressure to sack, he's not there at 20 anyway. Not unless NFL talent evaluators get a lot less optimistic about training QBs overnight.

 

[WickedWrister]

Through college excludes Caleb Williams. I thought it excluded Lamar Jackson too when I typed that, but misremembered as he's just over. He is just over due to one nightmare year and two okay years at around 17% though - his median year is below 20%. I'd happily rephrase it to median college year though as this is about the guys who just consistently get caught, not guys who spike bad.

You're right it doesn't exclude Jayden Daniels, and I'd have absolutely not picked him. Between his Pressure to Sack *and* being an older guy with only good season, he screams bust city. He could be amazing like Burrow but odds are not in his favour. Yeah, people succeed with those two things, but the misses outweigh the hits.

Finally, I think the importance of extending plays is part of what makes pressure to sack so important. Can't extend a play you get sacked on! Sure, extending plays involves risk, but by and large good players mitigate those risks. But also, when it comes to kids coming from the NCAA, I just look at it as the best diagnostic for processing publicly available. Infallible? Hell no. But someone should be able to tell you why it's wrong in this particular instance. You can make a case that Daniels capacity for big time throws under pressure means he can process and he'll claw back all the sacks he takes and be worth it, like Burrow. I don't particularly believe it but you can make it.

If there's a case for that 'Bama QB, I'm all ears. But my guess is if he does things so well you can ignore a 30% pressure to sack, he's not there at 20 anyway. Not unless NFL talent evaluators get a lot less optimistic about training QBs overnight.

Yeah I'm not disagreeing with it being a valuable stat. Like the data says you definitely want guys to end up in that top right quadrant. Caleb Williams hovering around 20% I think you could characterize as a yellow flag, Daniels 24.5% would be a red flag. Shedeur Sanders is probably going to be another guy well over 20% to get picked in the 1st round if not the top 10.

The only point I was trying to make is that is that it's just a piece of the evaluation and that there are some successful QB's that aren't under the 20% threshold. I'm okay with ignoring one red flag, but when you see like 3 more in other areas then I begin to question the profile.