I guess for me, Smith seems like his offense is a bit of a one (maybe two?) trick pony: zone runs and play action. And if it’s working that’s great. But what happens when a team shuts down his run game? Does he have a good enough drop back passing game to overcome it? Based on his time as a play caller, that answer is no. In the playoffs with the Titans, once a team shut down Henry that was that.
I don't know that that's a fair conclusion to come to. There were 2 playoff games where Henry wasn't running wild.
2019 KC - 24 points on the 7th best scoring defense - It's not blowing anyone's hair back, but it's good enough to win in the playoffs. The Chiefs just won the Super Bowl scoring 26, 27, 17, and 25 (in OT). And they have Patrick Mahomes, not Ryan Tannehill. The 49ers scored 24, 34 (against the 23rd ranked scoring defense), and 22 (in OT).
2020 BLT - 13 points on the 2nd best scoring defense - I'll grant it's not good enough to expect to win scoring 13 points, but the Ravens defense was great that year. The next week, the Bills only scored 17 and 7 was a 101 yard INT return. So really the offense only put up 10.
You bring up the niners and that’s a valid point that you can be run heavy and be a contender. Shanahan’s kind of gone away from the under center play action passing game though and still has an effective and efficient passing offense.
Part of what I'm getting at is there is more than 1 way to skin a cat. Chiefs throw the ball a lot and won the Super Bowl. The 49ers don't and nearly won the Super Bowl. There's no sense in trying to copy other teams because different styles can win. And frankly, given the QB situation, if we're copying a team, it should be the 49ers.
I agree that effectiveness and efficiency are the key and I think the Titans were that with Smith at OC. 2019 they had the second fewest attempts, but 7th highest net yards/attempt. 2020 they were 3rd lowest in attempts, but 7th highest NY/A.
Whether it's under center play action or spread or whatever else is really getting into the nitty gritty and I would argue it's mostly dependent on the roster. Having a 240lb guy like Harris (or Henry) lends itself more to be under center IMO. McCaffrey at 200lbs, yeah, maybe you want to spread things out a little more.
And before anyone says "What about Atlanta?" Yes, it can't be completely ignored, but you still need good players, particularly at QB. I don't think old man Ryan, Mariota, Ridder, and Heinicke are good enough to run
any offense. It didn't work with Smith's offense, but it probably would have been even worse if they leaned into a pass heavy attack.