Blue Jays Discussion: The official Davis Schneider Appreciation Society

[weems]

I don't really expect us to sign Ohtani but it's funny because right when all the playoff debacle stuff happened, Davidi did say that he had talked to people and they believed the Jays would be in the mix and maybe this is their one blockbuster move that pushes us over the top.

Now today Bob Nightengale also said we're going to have strong interest.

Not only would he greatly improve our championship odds but Rogers would make a ton of money off the guy.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

For some reason I thought he had a long term deal signed already. His was the only contract I didn’t look up. That does change it a little


Love that he called this out. It really makes zero sense

Not sure what doesn't make sense about it. They changed the awards in 2011 so that the outfield awards were segregated by actual position. Prior to that it did not matter if you were RF/LF/CF (which usually meant 3 centerfielders would win).

Kwan had 16 DRS as a leftfielder. Varsho had 11 DRS as a leftfielder.
Kwan had 3.4 dWAR as a leftfielder. Varsho -0.10 dWAR as a leftfielder.
Kwan had 9 OAA as a leftfielder. Varsho had 1 OAA as a leftfielder.
Kwan had 8 RAA as a left fielder. Varsho had 1 RAA as a leftfielder.

Kwan won the gold glove for left field.

You can maybe argue that there should be no discrete fielding categories for outfielders or that Varsho should have won CF over Kiermieir, but like em or not those are the current rules.

Strictly as a LF Kwan put up better numbers, while Kiermieir had the same number of DRS (18) in centerfield as Varsho, to go with 8.5 dWAR (2nd among CF), and actually played enough games there to qualify.

 

[Discoverer]

Not sure what doesn't make sense about it. They changed the awards in 2011 so that the outfield awards were segregated by actual position. Prior to that it did not matter if you were RF/LF/CF (which usually meant 3 centerfielders would win).

Kwan had 16 DRS as a leftfielder. Varsho had 11 DRS as a leftfielder.
Kwan had 3.4 dWAR as a leftfielder. Varsho -0.10 dWAR as a leftfielder.
Kwan had 9 OAA as a leftfielder. Varsho had 1 OAA as a leftfielder.
Kwan had 8 RAA as a left fielder. Varsho had 1 RAA as a leftfielder.

Kwan won the gold glove for left field.

You can maybe argue that there should be no discrete fielding categories for outfielders or that Varsho should have won CF over Kiermieir, but like em or not those are the current rules.

Strictly as a LF Kwan put up better numbers, while Kiermieir had the same number of DRS (18) in centerfield as Varsho, to go with 8.5 dWAR (2nd among CF), and actually played enough games there to qualify.

Yeah, it shouldn't really be that surprising - considering the criteria they use, he was never likely to win any despite having a legitimate argument for being the best defensive player in baseball this year. (And I didn't realize this until today, but he doesn't even have a chance a Platinum Glove since only Gold Glovers are eligible - I assumed it was just a "best overall defender" award).

Next year should be interesting, assuming he's the full time CF. By any combination of DRS/UZR/OAA over the last two years, no one is remotely close to Varsho in run prevention in CF.

 

[GreytWun]

Not sure what doesn't make sense about it. They changed the awards in 2011 so that the outfield awards were segregated by actual position. Prior to that it did not matter if you were RF/LF/CF (which usually meant 3 centerfielders would win).

Kwan had 16 DRS as a leftfielder. Varsho had 11 DRS as a leftfielder.
Kwan had 3.4 dWAR as a leftfielder. Varsho -0.10 dWAR as a leftfielder.
Kwan had 9 OAA as a leftfielder. Varsho had 1 OAA as a leftfielder.
Kwan had 8 RAA as a left fielder. Varsho had 1 RAA as a leftfielder.

Kwan won the gold glove for left field.

You can maybe argue that there should be no discrete fielding categories for outfielders or that Varsho should have won CF over Kiermieir, but like em or not those are the current rules.

Strictly as a LF Kwan put up better numbers, while Kiermieir had the same number of DRS (18) in centerfield as Varsho, to go with 8.5 dWAR (2nd among CF), and actually played enough games there to qualify.

Have to overcompensate for the bad trade somehow.

 

[Puckstuff]

This probably means Hicks isn’t coming back.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Chapman QO was obvious, as was no one else getting one. Being a Luxury Tax team now when he turns it down we only get a pick after the 4th round I believe.

Mitch White will annoy some people but he did well after being demoted. May have figured something out, and was to be a minor league FA if not added. Teams use 40 man spots like eating candy in the offseason. Use them to add players and if the spots are needed later you can just DFA the player again who cares.

Brendon Little looks like meodicre minor league reliever who has some serious walk issues. Basically another Hayden Juenger but on the 40 man. I don't really get it but this may be another one of those add the guy and if you need the spot later DFA him things.

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[canucksfan]

Chapman QO was obvious, as was no one else getting one. Being a Luxury Tax team now when he turns it down we only get a pick after the 4th round I believe.

Mitch White will annoy some people but he did well after being demoted. May have figured something out, and was to be a minor league FA if not added. Teams use 40 man spots like eating candy in the offseason. Use them to add players and if the spots are needed later you can just DFA the player again who cares.

Brendon Little looks like meodicre minor league reliever who has some serious walk issues. Basically another Hayden Juenger but on the 40 man. I don't really get it but this may be another one of those add the guy and if you need the spot later DFA him things.

Ya White did a lot better when he got demoted. Can't believe I am saying this but I wouldn't want to lose him

 

[phillipmike]

2023-24 Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions

The world's best MLB free agent rankings and predictions, fresh for the 2023-24 offseason from the experts at MLBTR.

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Notables:
Bellinger: $264M/12 Years
Ohtani: $538M/12 Years (all predictions to the Dodgers)
Yamamoto: $225M/9 years
Snell: $200M/7 years

12 years and $264M for Bellinger? $200M for Snell? $150M for Nola, Montgomery and Chapman each?

If that’s the cost of free agency? Then I’m happy to sit it out.

They had 3 writers making predictions;

Tim Dierkes:
LF Jorge Soler: $45M/3 years
CF Kevin Kiermaier: $26M/2 years
3B Gio Urshela: $20M/2 Years

Anthony Franco:
CF Kevin Kiermaier: $26M/2 years
SP Tyler Mahle: $20M/2 Years
3B Gio Urshela: $20M/2 Years

Darragh McDonald:
3B Jeimer Candelario: $70M/4
CF/LF Jung Hoo Lee: $50/4 years
SP Nick Martinez: $25M/2 years

Jays Free Agent Contract Predictions:
Chapman: $150M/6 years
Hicks: $40M/4 years
Kiermaier: $26M/2 Years
Belt: $15M/1 Year

Former Jays:
Teoscar: $80M/4 Years
Gurriel: $50M/4 Years
Hendriks: $12M/2 Year

Not crazy about some of these predictions regarding contract but if I have to take one, I’ll take McDonald as Candelario, Hoo Lee and Martinez are in a higher tier than the other guys.

I also rather roll with internal replacements than waste $25M on Soler and Urshela or $20M on Urshela and Mahle eventhough I like Mahle as a bounce back.

Interesting that all 3 guys predict the Jays invest more into starters with 4 guys locked up plus Manoah, Ricky and Francis around.

 

[trellaine201]

Just curious would the Jays ever put Vlady back at 3B. It would sure allow for more options for a DH/1B. But I think we tried twice? Then moved Vlady to 1B. Personally I am fine with Vlady at 1B.

 

[dredeye]

Not sure what doesn't make sense about it. They changed the awards in 2011 so that the outfield awards were segregated by actual position. Prior to that it did not matter if you were RF/LF/CF (which usually meant 3 centerfielders would win).

Kwan had 16 DRS as a leftfielder. Varsho had 11 DRS as a leftfielder.
Kwan had 3.4 dWAR as a leftfielder. Varsho -0.10 dWAR as a leftfielder.
Kwan had 9 OAA as a leftfielder. Varsho had 1 OAA as a leftfielder.
Kwan had 8 RAA as a left fielder. Varsho had 1 RAA as a leftfielder.

Kwan won the gold glove for left field.

You can maybe argue that there should be no discrete fielding categories for outfielders or that Varsho should have won CF over Kiermieir, but like em or not those are the current rules.

Strictly as a LF Kwan put up better numbers, while Kiermieir had the same number of DRS (18) in centerfield as Varsho, to go with 8.5 dWAR (2nd among CF), and actually played enough games there to qualify.

Because he was the defensive outfielder and got nothing. I get the rule cbange kid of screwed him but it really doesn’t make sense

 

[Dr.Funk]

Just curious would the Jays ever put Vlady back at 3B. It would sure allow for more options for a DH/1B. But I think we tried twice? Then moved Vlady to 1B. Personally I am fine with Vlady at 1B.

That ship has sailed and has docked on the other side of the ocean.

 

[dredeye]

Have to overcompensate for the bad trade somehow.

What are you talking about? Who’s over compensating. He was the best outfielder in baseball this year but lost out because he played left field and centre. Just because you don’t like him doesn’t negate what he actually did on the field

Chapman QO was obvious, as was no one else getting one. Being a Luxury Tax team now when he turns it down we only get a pick after the 4th round I believe.

Mitch White will annoy some people but he did well after being demoted. May have figured something out, and was to be a minor league FA if not added. Teams use 40 man spots like eating candy in the offseason. Use them to add players and if the spots are needed later you can just DFA the player again who cares.

Brendon Little looks like meodicre minor league reliever who has some serious walk issues. Basically another Hayden Juenger but on the 40 man. I don't really get it but this may be another one of those add the guy and if you need the spot later DFA him things.

I wouldn’t put much thought into the trade. He’s just fodder at this point that if they can find a way to keep him maybe they can fix him

 

[canucksfan]

The biggest needs are LF and 3B. I am not confident in the current players in the organization to fill those roles. Plus it's also nice to have depth.

 

[dredeye]

What if the jays woo Ohtani by agreeing to sign Yamamoto as well? Just saying I’ve heard worse ideas lol

 

[Canada4Gold]

I'm not a huge fan of a lot of these mediocre FAs. Are the surer things or upgrades on our prospects? Sure. Do I want to spend 15 million for multiple years for that? Not really. Not at every spot anyway. Ideally the plan would be to blow your whole wad on Ohtani and backfill 3B with Orelvis/Barger, and find a OF solution somehow(they were trying Barger there in AAA). Realistically that's unlikely. Bellinger scares me but at least he's a for sure upgrade. Maybe. Candelario, Soler, Hoskins stuff that's been floating around is probably the most realistic but it's very underwhelming. If I can't get Ohtani or Bellinger I'd almost just say screw it and go for Yamamoto. Double down on the pitching. At least I'm getting some upside.

 

[Discoverer]

2023-24 Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions

The world's best MLB free agent rankings and predictions, fresh for the 2023-24 offseason from the experts at MLBTR.

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Notables:
Bellinger: $264M/12 Years
Ohtani: $538M/12 Years (all predictions to the Dodgers)
Yamamoto: $225M/9 years
Snell: $200M/7 years

12 years and $264M for Bellinger? $200M for Snell? $150M for Nola, Montgomery and Chapman each?

If that’s the cost of free agency? Then I’m happy to sit it out.

They had 3 writers making predictions;

Tim Dierkes:
LF Jorge Soler: $45M/3 years
CF Kevin Kiermaier: $26M/2 years
3B Gio Urshela: $20M/2 Years

Anthony Franco:
CF Kevin Kiermaier: $26M/2 years
SP Tyler Mahle: $20M/2 Years
3B Gio Urshela: $20M/2 Years

Darragh McDonald:
3B Jeimer Candelario: $70M/4
CF/LF Jung Hoo Lee: $50/4 years
SP Nick Martinez: $25M/2 years

Jays Free Agent Contract Predictions:
Chapman: $150M/6 years
Hicks: $40M/4 years
Kiermaier: $26M/2 Years
Belt: $15M/1 Year

Former Jays:
Teoscar: $80M/4 Years
Gurriel: $50M/4 Years
Hendriks: $12M/2 Year

Not crazy about some of these predictions regarding contract but if I have to take one, I’ll take McDonald as Candelario, Hoo Lee and Martinez are in a higher tier than the other guys.

I also rather roll with internal replacements than waste $25M on Soler and Urshela or $20M on Urshela and Mahle eventhough I like Mahle as a bounce back.

Interesting that all 3 guys predict the Jays invest more into starters with 4 guys locked up plus Manoah, Ricky and Francis around.

Man, a couple years ago when he was at his peak, there were enough red flags on Teoscar that an $80 million contract would have been risky. If he gets it now, considering the season he just had and the decline in power, all kind of peripherals... oof.

 

[phillipmike]

Man, a couple years ago when he was at his peak, there were enough red flags on Teoscar that an $80 million contract would have been risky. If he gets it now, considering the season he just had and the decline in power, all kind of peripherals... oof.

I believe Blair said the Jays last offer to him 2 seasons ago was around $80M. So if he gets it, then it should be seen as a win in a way. He beat on himself, lost the bet but still got $80M. But these predictions have him going to the White Sox or Angels, so he won, but at a cost.

I'm not a huge fan of a lot of these mediocre FAs. Are the surer things or upgrades on our prospects? Sure. Do I want to spend 15 million for multiple years for that? Not really. Not at every spot anyway. Ideally the plan would be to blow your whole wad on Ohtani and backfill 3B with Orelvis/Barger, and find a OF solution somehow(they were trying Barger there in AAA). Realistically that's unlikely. Bellinger scares me but at least he's a for sure upgrade. Maybe. Candelario, Soler, Hoskins stuff that's been floating around is probably the most realistic but it's very underwhelming. If I can't get Ohtani or Bellinger I'd almost just say screw it and go for Yamamoto. Double down on the pitching. At least I'm getting some upside.

Yeah I agree with you 100%. Go for ceiling. And maybe you trade one Berrios, Kikuchi or Bassitt in season if you get a good offer.

Though I just looked up Urshela’s stats. Averaged 3.6 WAR per 162 since leaving the Jays. Plus defender and .299 BA last season. Only 32. On a 1 year deal who can play SS if need be, wouldn’t be bad insurance for Barger and Orelvis at 3B.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I expect them to sign a 3B. If the plan was to give the reigns to Orelvis/Barger they wouldn't have been playing Barger in LF and Orelvis at 2B to end the year last year in AAA. I wonder what the odds are that Roden makes the team. Presumably they'll also sign a OF. But in a case where they don't/can't/or somehow get Ohtani and don't have enough money for a OF then Roden is probably the most ready natural OF who might be passable.

 

[Petes]

What if the jays woo Ohtani by agreeing to sign Yamamoto as well? Just saying I’ve heard worse ideas lol

If only they had 750M lying around….

 

[Canada4Gold]

Looking at the Jays 40 man roster. It's at 40 right now with Belt still listed confusingly(do they know something we don't?). Assuming no Belt that's 39. Parsons, Cimber, Little, Lopez, and Eden are easy DFA/non tenders. That makes it 34. Who are we protecting from the rule 5? Macko is probably the only one I add, though Dominguez, Van Eyk, Palmer, Britton, and Lantigua are also candidates. How many FAs we looking at? Starting OF, starting 3B, backup OF, perhaps another bench bat, perhaps another arm, whether it be starter, pen arm, or depth minor leaguer. 5 FA's, 1 rule 5 protection would put us back at 40 if all 5 guys mentioned get DFA. After that you're looking at White, Heineman, Clement, Lukes or trading Pearson, Richards, Espinal, Jimenez, Zulueta or Danner.

 

[Bjindaho]

2023-24 Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions

The world's best MLB free agent rankings and predictions, fresh for the 2023-24 offseason from the experts at MLBTR.

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Notables:
Bellinger: $264M/12 Years
Ohtani: $538M/12 Years (all predictions to the Dodgers)
Yamamoto: $225M/9 years
Snell: $200M/7 years

12 years and $264M for Bellinger? $200M for Snell? $150M for Nola, Montgomery and Chapman each?

If that’s the cost of free agency? Then I’m happy to sit it out.

They had 3 writers making predictions;

Tim Dierkes:
LF Jorge Soler: $45M/3 years
CF Kevin Kiermaier: $26M/2 years
3B Gio Urshela: $20M/2 Years

Anthony Franco:
CF Kevin Kiermaier: $26M/2 years
SP Tyler Mahle: $20M/2 Years
3B Gio Urshela: $20M/2 Years

Darragh McDonald:
3B Jeimer Candelario: $70M/4
CF/LF Jung Hoo Lee: $50/4 years
SP Nick Martinez: $25M/2 years

Jays Free Agent Contract Predictions:
Chapman: $150M/6 years
Hicks: $40M/4 years
Kiermaier: $26M/2 Years
Belt: $15M/1 Year

Former Jays:
Teoscar: $80M/4 Years
Gurriel: $50M/4 Years
Hendriks: $12M/2 Year

Not crazy about some of these predictions regarding contract but if I have to take one, I’ll take McDonald as Candelario, Hoo Lee and Martinez are in a higher tier than the other guys.

I also rather roll with internal replacements than waste $25M on Soler and Urshela or $20M on Urshela and Mahle eventhough I like Mahle as a bounce back.

Interesting that all 3 guys predict the Jays invest more into starters with 4 guys locked up plus Manoah, Ricky and Francis around.

Would love Yamamoto and Lee at those prices. There's a whole lot of crap amongst what is out there, but if the Jays could get Yamamoto, Lee, and say Hicks, I'd call it a good offseason.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

6 years for Chapman? Not so sure about that one.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Suntouchable13]

6 years for Chapman? Not so sure about that one.

I am fine with letting him go. We need more reliable hitters. He swings and misses a ton, for what? 15 homers?