Blue Jays Discussion: The official Danny Jackson Appreciation Society

[Eyedea]

The problem is that Atkins shortened the lineup significantly to add to the defense/bullpen, but those improvements haven’t been enough to compensate for a middling offense.

This season is looking a lot like those years under Ricciardi where they went 87-75 with Halladay (Gausman), Burnett (Bassitt) and Lilly/Marcum (Berrios).

Gurriel last year is essentially what Merrifield has been doing sans the baserunning/defensive flexibility. Varsho’s been relatively fine from a power standpoint. Not Teo but not Tapia either. Kiermaier has been good offensively.

Really, as has been mentioned by myself and others, I truly believe there’s a mirage at play. Players who performed well last year are scuffling this year, and the overall offensive numbers look underwhelming because they’ve been impacted by one of the more pitcher friendly parks this year (the dome). So while they might look bad, relative to the conditions they’re still good.

 

[MS]

Yankees and Angels both lose, so we pass the Angels and are 1 game behind NYY for the WC.

 

[canucksfan]

Jays can easily pick up a bat before the trade deadline as well. If Manoah comes back and is even a decent #3 starter the rotation is excellent. I still would like some depth if one of the starters gets injured though.

Unlike last year, I am not too concerned about the bullpen.

 

[Eyedea]

Jays can easily pick up a bat before the trade deadline as well. If Manoah comes back and is even a decent #3 starter the rotation is excellent. I still would like some depth if one of the starters gets injured though.

Unlike last year, I am not too concerned about the bullpen.

Technically they do have depth coming in the form of Ryu. Plus Green can really bolster the pen too.

 

[canucksfan]

Technically they do have depth coming in the form of Ryu. Plus Green can really bolster the pen too.

True but I am not too confident Ryu can start. Green will be a nice piece to add to the bullpen though.

 

[The Nemesis]

And hey, here's something interesting... Moreno is backing up Carson Kelly for the third straight game tonight.

Moreno: 53 GP (204 PA), .280/.318/.684 (avg/obp/ops), 2 HR (.085 ISO), 23 RBI, 21 RS (0.79 ZARP!), 20% K, 6.1% BB, 84 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

Kirk: 55 GP (192 PA), .266/.349/.698 (avg/obp/ops), 3 HR (.083 ISO), 21 RBI, 14 RS (0.55 ZARP!), 11.5% K, 10.4% BB, 99 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR

The gulf between them right now is enormous! If you're Gregg Zaun.

EDIT: for clarity, the runs scored disparity is likely because Moreno has spent the vast majority of his season batting 7th or 8th and thus when he's on base it's usually when the lineup turns over. Kirk has spent most of his time batting 5th-7th, meaning he's more likely to require being driven in by the bottom of the Jays order instead of the superior top-of-the-lineup hitters.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Moreno: 53 GP (204 PA), .280/.318/.684 (avg/obp/ops), 2 HR (.085 ISO), 23 RBI, 21 RS (0.79 ZARP!), 20% K, 6.1% BB, 84 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

Most of the damage has come vs LHP (157 wRC+). Worm killing machine with virtually zero power vs RHP (47 wRC+)

 

[McFly2544]

Ultimately once the scoring with RISP number normalizes, the team will be fine

last 12 games of the season will make or break playoffs

 

[Eyedea]

True but I am not too confident Ryu can start. Green will be a nice piece to add to the bullpen though.

Initially I thought he wouldn't even play this season but I've become pretty bullish on his potential return and impact. Whether that's from the pen or in the rotation I think he'll be ready to go multiple innings. The Rays had a similar timeline for Glasnow last year (June surgery) and had him stretch out in September to the point where he started in the final two weeks of the season + postseason (pitching 3-5 innings each game). Even three innings of effective lefty tossing and then piggyback him with a Francis/Richards has some value in September ball.

 

[LaP]

wRC+ is all about creating runs. That's literally in its name (weighted RUNS CREATED) That's the point, it's how well a player helps his team score runs in all facets of offensive contribution. And stats like it and other advanced metrics are designed to be better able to be used to predict future success than using something baseline like runs scored or RBIs which are highly contextual and dependent on things outside the player's control.

Also the Jays' +96 run differential was over the entire season last year. Comparing that to where they are now is like taking a hockey player through the first 3 weeks of the season and asking why he's not a 20 goal-scorer.

the offence does need to be better. I don't think anyone will argue that. But tilting at the advanced stats windmill here is a weird choice.

I don't think the problem of the Jays offense is the players. Outside of Kirk fitness issues (skills is fine there) i think the players are fine. They are all good players who could help a championship team. I think the composition is a bigger issue which will probably not show up in weighted runs created. I'm not a big fan of Jays three best hitters (arguably) batting with nobody on base in the 1st inning. Maybe i'm too old for that i should watch Golf instead XD

 

[Discoverer]

I don't think the problem of the Jays offense is the players. Outside of Kirk fitness issues (skills is fine there) i think the players are fine. They are all good players who could help a championship team. I think the composition is a bigger issue which will probably not show up in weighted runs created. I'm not a big fan of Jays three best hitters (arguably) batting with nobody on base in the 1st inning. Maybe i'm too old for that i should watch Golf instead XD

I think you'll probably find almost every team structures their lineup like that now.

 

[The Nemesis]

I don't think the problem of the Jays offense is the players. Outside of Kirk fitness issues (skills is fine there) i think the players are fine. They are all good players who could help a championship team. I think the composition is a bigger issue which will probably not show up in weighted runs created. I'm not a big fan of Jays three best hitters (arguably) batting with nobody on base in the 1st inning. Maybe i'm too old for that i should watch Golf instead XD

that's how lineups are structure now because someone recognized that it's only at the start of a game or in a perfect game scenario where your 1-3 hitters will come up with little to no chance of someone being on base given that hits/walks/game events will take the lineup out of its pre-set segmentation of 1-2-3, 4-5-6, 7-8-9. So instead you put your best hitters to the top of the lineup to ensure they get the most plate appearances possible and the most chances to effect the outcome of the game.

Consider that the most common hitters at the bottom of the Jays' lineup are Merrifield, Kiermaier, and whoever they might sub into the lineup (Kirk, Belt, and Varsho tend to sit somewhere in a muddy 4th-6th range based on being moved around a lot as they tinker with the order).

Merrifield is OBPing over .400 when he's 7th or 8th. Kiermaier is around .350 when he mostly hits 9th. Guys are able to get on base at the bottom of the order and thus turn things over to Springer-Bichette-Guerrero at the top of the lineup.

So it doesn't happen in the first inning of the game. That's literally only 1/9th or less of the game's total length. You take that small down bit there (where they might only get a solo or 2-run HR instead of a 3-run bomb. Or a double that gets stranded instead of one that maybe cashes in a run) for the fact that you'll have 2-3 more cracks at them coming up later and a reasonable chance there could or should be someone on at that point.

 

[theaub]

Honestly the bigger issue is that at almost no point have the Jays best hitters all hit in a row.

Which is part clusterluck but at a certain time the manager needs to stop putting black holes between productive hitters.

 

[Lightsol]

MLB intends to curb team spending on tech

Different pockets of management have talked about potential cost controls in areas outside player salaries.

theathletic.com

Major League Baseball and high-ranking club officials have discussed limiting how much teams can spend in areas other than player salaries, such as technology, player development, scouting and health, multiple people briefed on such discussions told The Athletic.

Different pockets of management have talked about the potential cost controls, whether it be owners speaking to one another, or in similar conversations between club higher-ups. But MLB’s executive vice president of baseball operations, Morgan Sword, is said to have discussed the concept again last week on a call with club financial officers, an official briefed on the meeting said.

A league spokesperson said MLB’s focus has been on technology vendors, rather than staffing.

“There is nothing happening on that front,” the spokesperson said. “What we are focused on is gathering information on vendor costs to find potential cost savings through efficiencies and to ensure equal access to all technology.”

But multiple officials who have been briefed on or participated in some of these conversations said the thinking extends to personnel, as well. At least some clubs would enjoy seeing caps on spending in any area that can influence on-field success, player salaries or otherwise. Executives with smaller-market teams have long lamented the task of keeping up with the spending capabilities of larger market teams.

Just before Opening Day, commissioner Rob Manfred told a story about an owner who was puzzled by how large his analytics staff had grown.

“I heard (the idea of limits) discussed at the ownership level,” said a different club official this week. “I don’t know where it originated. It’s about competitive balance. … I’ve been in the game 20 years. The number of people we have in our clubhouse working with the players has tripled, quadrupled in size.”

But with roughly 40 percent of the season complete, the standings suggest concerns over market size and competitive balance could be overwrought. Entering Tuesday, four revenue-sharing recipients — the Rays, Twins, Pirates and Diamondbacks — were in first place. Three others — the Marlins, Brewers and Orioles — were in position for wild cards.

Likewise, some teams would abhor the idea of spending limits, arguing that investing in technology or player development is a way of creating a fair advantage over other teams.

“Enough on the expense side,” another executive lamented of the league’s continued effort to tamp down costs. “You should be encouraging people to learn how to make money.”

Multiple club officials suggested that spending limits on non-players might make the most sense to pursue as part of a larger overhaul — including a salary cap for players, too. Whether the commissioner’s office and the owners will actually push for a player salary cap when the current collective bargaining agreement expires following the 2026 season is to be seen.

A cap on player salaries would require the approval of the Players Association, which has said it will not grant that approval. Most other employees in the sport, meanwhile, are not unionized.

If MLB does eventually try to restrict employee spending in some capacity, the league almost certainly would be leveraging the benefit of the sport’s antitrust exemption. The 30 teams likely would be collectively deciding not to compete with each other, in some way, in their hiring practices.

"Damn, we need to come up with more restrictions that can hamper the cheap teams so that New York and Boston dominate..."

 

[phillipmike]

Honestly thought getting Bradfield was a possibility but he is going higher and higher in drafts. Elite CF who can get on base, steal and has power. Could be ready by late 2024.

Get to know Orioles' No. 17 pick Enrique Bradfield Jr.

Yes, Enrique Bradfield Jr. can run. But that’s not all he can do. The speedy Vanderbilt outfielder can also hit for average, he can track down balls in center field and he has a strong throwing arm. Here’s more on the player selected No. 17 overall by the Orioles in

www.mlb.com

MLB had him ranked 16th and the Jays have the 20th pick. I could see him going in the top 10.

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[phillipmike]

 

[The Nemesis]

Just because we've done this dance like a half-dozen times already, friendly reminder that we will not be going down this road again. He's no longer on the team and that's that. Everything else is dead and buried and will not turn this thread into another clusterf***.

 

[kb]

Just because we've done this dance like a half-dozen times already, friendly reminder that we will not be going down this road again. He's no longer on the team and that's that. Everything else is dead and buried and will not turn this thread into another clusterf***.

Nem in training....

 

[Discoverer]

I'm a little surprised no one gave up a mediocre AAA starter or something the Jays could use to plug a hole at Buffalo, but it's hard to care too much about losing him for nothing considering he would be, at best, the 7th guy out of the pen.

I assume it would be Lukes going back down for Horwitz, and I guess that one doesn't really matter too much. Horwitz's power has completely disappeared since reaching AAA last year, but he's been an on-base machine, especially against righties. Plug him into Belt's defensive role with less playing time (1B/DH once in a while and never against lefties) and slot him in at the bottom of the lineup to see if he can get on base for the big bats.

 

[Hoverhand]

Moreno: 53 GP (204 PA), .280/.318/.684 (avg/obp/ops), 2 HR (.085 ISO), 23 RBI, 21 RS (0.79 ZARP!), 20% K, 6.1% BB, 84 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

Kirk: 55 GP (192 PA), .266/.349/.698 (avg/obp/ops), 3 HR (.083 ISO), 21 RBI, 14 RS (0.55 ZARP!), 11.5% K, 10.4% BB, 99 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR

The gulf between them right now is enormous! If you're Gregg Zaun.

EDIT: for clarity, the runs scored disparity is likely because Moreno has spent the vast majority of his season batting 7th or 8th and thus when he's on base it's usually when the lineup turns over. Kirk has spent most of his time batting 5th-7th, meaning he's more likely to require being driven in by the bottom of the Jays order instead of the superior top-of-the-lineup hitters.

thank you to this random old Score article for making this Eno Sarris tweet easy to find. I had completely forgotten what ZARP actually stood for.

 

[Discoverer]

Honestly the bigger issue is that at almost no point have the Jays best hitters all hit in a row.

Which is part clusterluck but at a certain time the manager needs to stop putting black holes between productive hitters.

I have a hard time pinning too much of that on the manager... he's done a lot of shuffling around (Varsho, Chapman, and Kirk in particular have moved up and down a lot) and it seems like whoever he plugs into an important spot immediately stops hitting.

 

[Hellcat]

Jays can easily pick up a bat before the trade deadline as well. If Manoah comes back and is even a decent #3 starter the rotation is excellent. I still would like some depth if one of the starters gets injured though.

Unlike last year, I am not too concerned about the bullpen.

It feels like they should be better than they are, 6-16 vs AL East, 31-15 against the rest of MLB.

They are giving too many easy wins against their division. They better start playing like they are playing for their playoff lives, because thay are.

 

[Hellcat]

Honestly the bigger issue is that at almost no point have the Jays best hitters all hit in a row.

Which is part clusterluck but at a certain time the manager needs to stop putting black holes between productive hitters.

The thought has always been if you put Meh! hitters between great hitters the Meh! hitter will see more fastballs. How true that is I dont know, I have more of an issue on how he is using his bull pen and how he lets games get away. Not sure if this guy is goign to finish the season.

 

[Nineteen67]

It feels like they should be better than they are, 6-16 vs AL East, 31-15 against the rest of MLB.

They are giving too many easy wins against their division. They better start playing like they are playing for their playoff lives, because thay are.

They don’t want to be in no man’s land at the trade deadline. Not that they have a lot that would bring a great return, but it’d be a good gesture to move Keirmaier or Chapman if they're out of it.
Less than 40 games to figure it out.