Blue Jays Discussion: The official Danny Jackson Appreciation Society

[Eyedea]

At what point do we retool by selling off our potential free agents? Chapman and Kiermaier should be able to get a pretty good return, but I kind of want to resign KK.

I don't see a point. The team isn't bad enough to get a top pick and it would be a disservice to the core members of the team to subtract rather than add. Collect the comp pick on Chapman, not sure if Kiermaier would get one at this point since his health is an obvious risk.

 

[MS]

At what point do we retool by selling off our potential free agents? Chapman and Kiermaier should be able to get a pretty good return, but I kind of want to resign KK.

What on earth? There is a 0% chance this happens. They'll be within a couple games of the playoffs at the deadline and then have an extremely soft August schedule. Unless something insane happens, the team will be buyers.

 

[Discoverer]

At what point do we retool by selling off our potential free agents? Chapman and Kiermaier should be able to get a pretty good return, but I kind of want to resign KK.

I don't know where that exact point is, but I know for sure it's when they're way more than 1.5 games out of a playoff spot with way less than 94 games left.

There's basically no chance they sell since there will be 54 games left after the trade deadline and the chances of them being far enough out to justify punting on the season are close to zero.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I don't see a point. The team isn't bad enough to get a top pick and it would be a disservice to the core members of the team to subtract rather than add. Collect the comp pick on Chapman, not sure if Kiermaier would get one at this point since his health is an obvious risk.

So if the team has a low probability of making the playoffs we just let assets walk for nothing or a late comp pick?

Past teams have traded away pending free agents and come out better for it. Obviously if the offers suck you don't take them, but the Yankees were only about 5 games out of the WC in 2016 and traded Chapman for a haul, then came back and finished 2nd the next year.

If you can get a good young prospect for Chapman who is closer to helping, that is much more value to the "core" going forward than getting a pick who won't arrive for at least 4 years. The pick should be the fallback not the default if we're out of it given where we want to be eventually. As far as Kiermaier we're unlikely to qualify him at the minimum like you said, so if he's healthy and not extended, he's almost a must trade if we're out of it. I don't get this thinking at all.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I don't know where that exact point is, but I know for sure it's when they're way more than 1.5 games out of a playoff spot with way less than 94 games left.

There's basically no chance they sell since there will be 54 games left after the trade deadline and the chances of them being far enough out to justify punting on the season are close to zero.

If we're 5 games out of the WC, depending on how many teams are between us, I'd pull the chute and quickly prepare for the next year. Get assets for pending free agents and give Barger, Schneider, Horowitz, Lopez, etc, some run. No point sunk cost fallacy-ing things if it's just not our time.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

What on earth? There is a 0% chance this happens. They'll be within a couple games of the playoffs at the deadline and then have an extremely soft August schedule. Unless something insane happens, the team will be buyers.

lol @ Zero percent chance. Every team is one or two injuries away from something "insane" happening. One of Guasman or Bichette go down, and things already get dicey.

 

[MS]

So if the team has a low probability of making the playoffs we just let assets walk for nothing or a late comp pick?

Past teams have traded away pending free agents and come out better for it. Obviously if the offers suck you don't take them, but the Yankees were only about 5 games out of the WC in 2016 and traded Chapman for a haul, then came back and finished 2nd the next year.

If you can get a good young prospect for Chapman who is closer to helping, that is much more value to the "core" going forward than getting a pick who won't arrive for at least 4 years. The pick should be the fallback not the default if we're out of it given where we want to be eventually. As far as Kiermaier we're unlikely to qualify him at the minimum like you said, so if he's healthy and not extended, he's almost a must trade if we're out of it. I don't get this thinking at all.

They aren't going to be >5 games out barring something totally unexpected and they have the softest part of their schedule in August.

This isn't going to be a thing.

lol @ Zero percent chance. Every team is one or two injuries away from something "insane" happening. One of Guasman or Bichette go down, and things already get dicey.

Ok, 1%.

If they go on a 12-game losing streak or something are are sitting below .500 then it's maybe a thing.

But this is a good team that will will be + or - a few games of the playoffs at the deadline. And it's a weird thing to even be discussing when the team is more likely to be in the playoffs than not right now.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

But this is a good team that will will be + or - a few games of the playoffs at the deadline. And it's a weird thing to even be discussing when the team is more likely to be in the playoffs than not right now.

This is a good, not great team. Saying we're more likely to be in the playoffs than not when we're out of it right now doesn't really make a lot of sense. It's not like the underlying stats suggest we're some kind of sleeping juggernaut that has just had a run of bad luck, we're 8th overall in AL run differential (both at Home and on the Road) with only one of the four teams above us for the WC being close(the annually disappointing Angels at +21). You're acting like I'm calling to blow things up. I'm literally asking what is the tipping point where you make the strategic decision to recoup value for an asset(s) that can possibly help us next year. Teams have to make difficult decisions like that all the time, and the smart/good teams tend to make the right decisions more often than not.

 

[MS]

This is a good, not great team. Saying we're more likely to be in the playoffs than not when we're out of it right now doesn't really make a lot of sense. It's not like the underlying stats suggest we're some kind of sleeping juggernaut that has just had a run of bad luck, we're 8th overall in AL run differential (both at Home and on the Road) with only one of the four teams above us for the WC being close(the annually disappointing Angels at +21).

There are literally statistical models that show that the team is like 70% to make the playoffs right now.

They've had a brutally tough schedule that gets much softer from mid-July to mid-September.

It's frankly an absurd thing to be talking about when the team is 1.5 games out not even mid-way through the season.

 

[AustonMarner]

"If people wanna quit watching the team because they don't agree with whatever, fine. Quit. Nobody cares. Don't call attention to it like your participation matters."

If the Jays lose significant fans do to mismanagement, it'll matter... maybe not to you at HFB but trust me, it matters.

Cheers

 

[McFly2544]

Jays season will come down to the last 12 games of the year, 6 vs Yanks, 6 vs Rays

They’ll most certainly keep pace until then with the softer 2nd half schedule

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[The Nemesis]

"If people wanna quit watching the team because they don't agree with whatever, fine. Quit. Nobody cares. Don't call attention to it like your participation matters."

If the Jays lose significant fans do to mismanagement, it'll matter... maybe not to you at HFB but trust me, it matters.

Cheers

I meant on an individual level with people whinging and being all dramatic on here. Nobody on here cares if some random user, especially one that rarely if ever posts here, decides they're done watching. Not enough to give a damn about a self-centered "I'm taking my ball and going home" whine post to announce that fact. Plus every potential Blue Jays fan on this site could quit their fandom tomorrow and it wouldn't even be a blip on Rogers' radar.

And most of that has had little to do with the quality and performance of the team, which makes it matter even less.

Also "me at HFB"?

You know I'm not like an employee of HF as a company or anything, right? Mods and front-facing staff on here are all volunteers that came from the ranks of regular posters at one point in time. I don't think I've ever interacted with anyone on here that was legitimately an employee of Crave/Mandatory/Evolve/whoever has owned the site aside from former head admin Buffaloed (who did also post as a fan aside from running the show)

 

[AustonMarner]

I meant on an individual level with people whinging and being all dramatic on here. Nobody on here cares if some random user, especially one that rarely if ever posts here, decides they're done watching. Not enough to give a damn about a self-centered "I'm taking my ball and going home" whine post to announce that fact. Plus every potential Blue Jays fan on this site could quit their fandom tomorrow and it wouldn't even be a blip on Rogers' radar.

And most of that has had little to do with the quality and performance of the team, which makes it matter even less.

Also "me at HFB"?

You know I'm not like an employee of HF as a company or anything, right? Mods and front-facing staff on here are all volunteers that came from the ranks of regular posters at one point in time. I don't think I've ever interacted with anyone on here that was legitimately an employee of Crave/Mandatory/Evolve/whoever has owned the site aside from former head admin Buffaloed (who did also post as a fan aside from running the show)

All I'm saying is fans matter to the team...
Whether you try to marginalize that or not...
But I do fully agree with you re: politics and sports and sports talk forums for that matter

and yes I know you're a mod and it's not easy
Thanks for everything either way
Bless

 

[Cloned]

The problem is that Atkins shortened the lineup significantly to add to the defense/bullpen, but those improvements haven’t been enough to compensate for a middling offense.

This season is looking a lot like those years under Ricciardi where they went 87-75 with Halladay (Gausman), Burnett (Bassitt) and Lilly/Marcum (Berrios).

 

[The Nemesis]

All I'm saying is fans matter to the team...
Whether you try to marginalize that or not...
But I do fully agree with you re: politics and sports and sports talk forums for that matter

and yes I know you're a mod and it's not easy
Thanks for everything either way
Bless

I was never saying fans didn't matter to the team. I was saying that whining, dramatic, performative shows made out of "quitting" the team don't matter to the fanbase, and especially here.

 

[jcs0218]

At what point do we retool by selling off our potential free agents? Chapman and Kiermaier should be able to get a pretty good return, but I kind of want to resign KK.

Everyday he's hustlin'!!!

 

[hockeywiz542]

MLB intends to curb team spending on tech

Different pockets of management have talked about potential cost controls in areas outside player salaries.

theathletic.com

Major League Baseball and high-ranking club officials have discussed limiting how much teams can spend in areas other than player salaries, such as technology, player development, scouting and health, multiple people briefed on such discussions told The Athletic.

Different pockets of management have talked about the potential cost controls, whether it be owners speaking to one another, or in similar conversations between club higher-ups. But MLB’s executive vice president of baseball operations, Morgan Sword, is said to have discussed the concept again last week on a call with club financial officers, an official briefed on the meeting said.

A league spokesperson said MLB’s focus has been on technology vendors, rather than staffing.

“There is nothing happening on that front,” the spokesperson said. “What we are focused on is gathering information on vendor costs to find potential cost savings through efficiencies and to ensure equal access to all technology.”

But multiple officials who have been briefed on or participated in some of these conversations said the thinking extends to personnel, as well. At least some clubs would enjoy seeing caps on spending in any area that can influence on-field success, player salaries or otherwise. Executives with smaller-market teams have long lamented the task of keeping up with the spending capabilities of larger market teams.

Just before Opening Day, commissioner Rob Manfred told a story about an owner who was puzzled by how large his analytics staff had grown.

“I heard (the idea of limits) discussed at the ownership level,” said a different club official this week. “I don’t know where it originated. It’s about competitive balance. … I’ve been in the game 20 years. The number of people we have in our clubhouse working with the players has tripled, quadrupled in size.”

But with roughly 40 percent of the season complete, the standings suggest concerns over market size and competitive balance could be overwrought. Entering Tuesday, four revenue-sharing recipients — the Rays, Twins, Pirates and Diamondbacks — were in first place. Three others — the Marlins, Brewers and Orioles — were in position for wild cards.

Likewise, some teams would abhor the idea of spending limits, arguing that investing in technology or player development is a way of creating a fair advantage over other teams.

“Enough on the expense side,” another executive lamented of the league’s continued effort to tamp down costs. “You should be encouraging people to learn how to make money.”

Multiple club officials suggested that spending limits on non-players might make the most sense to pursue as part of a larger overhaul — including a salary cap for players, too. Whether the commissioner’s office and the owners will actually push for a player salary cap when the current collective bargaining agreement expires following the 2026 season is to be seen.

A cap on player salaries would require the approval of the Players Association, which has said it will not grant that approval. Most other employees in the sport, meanwhile, are not unionized.

If MLB does eventually try to restrict employee spending in some capacity, the league almost certainly would be leveraging the benefit of the sport’s antitrust exemption. The 30 teams likely would be collectively deciding not to compete with each other, in some way, in their hiring practices.

 

[Discoverer]

The problem is that Atkins shortened the lineup significantly to add to the defense/bullpen, but those improvements haven’t been enough to compensate for a middling offense.

This season is looking a lot like those years under Ricciardi where they went 87-75 with Halladay (Gausman), Burnett (Bassitt) and Lilly/Marcum (Berrios).

Teoscar - 102 wRC+
Gurriel - 135 wRC+

Varsho - 97 wRC+
Kiermaier - 131 wRC+

There's a slight downgrade there while they went from a below average defense to elite and they added one of their best relievers. They also added Belt.

They've scored 317 runs this year. Through the same number of games last year, they had scored 323. That doesn't seem particularly significant to me.

 

[LaP]

Teoscar - 102 wRC+
Gurriel - 135 wRC+

Varsho - 97 wRC+
Kiermaier - 131 wRC+

There's a slight downgrade there while they went from a below average defense to elite and they added one of their best relievers. They also added Belt.

They've scored 317 runs this year. Through the same number of games last year, they had scored 323. That doesn't seem particularly significant to me.

In the grand scheme of things WRC+ doesn't help you if you don't run batters in. Advanced stats serve a purpose but some people consider them as sacred text which they are not.

We are getting close to the mid season and the Jays scored 22 more runs than they allowed. Last year they scored 96 more runs than they allowed. That's why they had a better record last year. Advanced doesn't run batters in.

 

[The Nemesis]

Teoscar - 102 wRC+
Gurriel - 135 wRC+

Varsho - 97 wRC+
Kiermaier - 131 wRC+

There's a slight downgrade there while they went from a below average defense to elite and they added one of their best relievers. They also added Belt.

They've scored 317 runs this year. Through the same number of games last year, they had scored 323. That doesn't seem particularly significant to me.

This.

Roster moves haven't shortened the lineup, it's been underperformance from Springer (to start the year), Chapman (after April), Kirk (though he's still ok, just not great like he was last season), and Vladdy (though "bad" Vladdy is still in the top half of qualified 1Bs by fWAR and top 10 by wRC+. So "bad" Vladdy is still better than quite a few first basemen in the league).

Chances are not everyone's going to dig their way completely out of their respective holes, but it only takes a couple before things start looking a lot better.

Gurriel's going to regress a bit because he always does, though it will be countered by the juice he gets from playing in Arizona.

though on the other hand Keirmaier is likely to regress some too. He's never been this kind of offensive performer in his entire career and it's hard to imagine that he suddenly started hitting for massive amounts of contact just this year. Guys can get the Bautista late-career power surge but rarely do they get a late-career batting average surge.

 

[Discoverer]

In the grand scheme of things WRC+ doesn't help you if you don't run batters in. Advanced stats serve a purpose but some people consider them as sacred text which they are not.

We are getting close to the mid season and the Jays scored 22 more runs than they allowed. Last year they scored 96 more runs than they allowed. That's why they had a better record last year. Advanced doesn't run batters in.

Advanced stats are a far better way of evaluating actual talent level and projecting into the future than basic stats are.

Either way, the post I was responding to said the Jays shortened the lineup with their moves (which I don't see considering the moves in and out and what those players are doing this year) and that the problem is a middling offense (when in reality they've only scored 6 runs fewer through 69 games compared to last year).

Also, last year at this point in the season they had a +26 differential.

 

[The Nemesis]

In the grand scheme of things WRC+ doesn't help you if you don't run batters in. Advanced stats serve a purpose but some people consider them as sacred text which they are not.

We are getting close to the mid season and the Jays scored 22 more runs than they allowed. Last year they scored 96 more runs than they allowed. That's why they had a better record last year. Advanced doesn't run batters in.

wRC+ is all about creating runs. That's literally in its name (weighted RUNS CREATED) That's the point, it's how well a player helps his team score runs in all facets of offensive contribution. And stats like it and other advanced metrics are designed to be better able to be used to predict future success than using something baseline like runs scored or RBIs which are highly contextual and dependent on things outside the player's control.

Also the Jays' +96 run differential was over the entire season last year. Comparing that to where they are now is like taking a hockey player through the first 3 weeks of the season and asking why he's not a 20 goal-scorer.

the offence does need to be better. I don't think anyone will argue that. But tilting at the advanced stats windmill here is a weird choice.

 

[Discoverer]

And hey, here's something interesting... Moreno is backing up Carson Kelly for the third straight game tonight.