Blue Jays Discussion: The official Danny Jackson Appreciation Society

[Dr.Funk]

Today is the draft? I legitimately forgot about it-

anyone know how to watch?

TSN2

 

[canucksfan]

Looks like some good talent on the board still

 

[Dr.Funk]

Arjun Nimmala SS

 

[TheBeastCoast]

High upside pick.

 

[Discoverer]

I'll take a risky, crazy high-ceiling prospect at 20th all day.

 

[weems]

 

[canucksfan]

I like this pick. High risk and high reward.

 

[phillipmike]

Nimmala a good pick. I saw some mocks with him going in the top 10 a few months ago. But fell because he was striking out a lot. This is from Fangraphs;

Even though he's one of the youngest prospects in the class, Nimmala is a ferocious rotator and is already able to generate considerable power because of the strength and quickness of his hitting hands. While aspects of his swing make him vulnerable to breaking balls on the outer third, Nimmala is able to create big power in a relatively short distance, and his swing isn't overly noisy or hard to maintain. He has a tendency to pull off of stuff bending away from him and struck out much more than expected during his senior spring, enough that he slid from the top third of the first round to the back based on his spring look. There are past examples of players who were suddenly K-prone as seniors and things still worked out (Nolan Gorman) and others when the strikeouts were a meaningful signal (Keoni Cavaco). At his size, Nimmala is more likely to end up at third base than he is to stay at shortstop, which means he has very little hit tool margin for error. The skill foundation here is still very enticing, and model-driven teams are likely to be on Nimmala because of his age and power. His upside hasn't changed but the perception about his likelihood to hit it has.

Fangraphs also had him going to the Jays this morning.

2023 Mock Draft 1.0

With the draft set to kick off Sunday, our lead prospect analyst presents his first mock.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Really like the pick. Reminds me of a more riskier Bichette with less of a hit tool but more potential power.

Chase Davis with unreal power was a name the Jays were linked to and he went right after us to the Cards. Another name I was interested in.

And of course one of my favourites in Bradfield went to Baltimore

 

[red devil]

 

[MS]

I'm about the furthest thing from an MLB draft expert and I don't really know anything about this player, but hearing 'lots of swing and miss' at low levels is always a bit of a red flag to me.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I had to do a double take. Didn’t realize Topi Niemela was. 2 sport athlete

I like the high upside shot. Another SS doesn’t surprise me at all. Of course they can always move around the field if you need them to as they develop, but man do we take a lot of them. I’m not even complaining either.

 

[metafour]

I'm about the furthest thing from an MLB draft expert and I don't really know anything about this player, but hearing 'lots of swing and miss' at low levels is always a bit of a red flag to me.

He was #8 on Keith Law's board.

Nimmala is one of the youngest players in the entire draft class, certainly the youngest on my Big Board, as he won’t turn 18 until November, which will appeal to all the teams that value age in their draft models. But he’s also very talented and would still be a first-rounder even if he were 18 already. Nimmala is a lean 6-1 and already shows above-average power with a strong swing that makes excellent use of his hips to generate that contact quality. He’s a rangy shortstop with good hands and an easy plus arm, and although he’s probably just an average runner in the end, he’s certain to stay at the position long term. Where he falls short of the high school hitters above him is in his present hit tool, as he’s shown more propensity to swing and miss than his peers but seems to hit velocity fine. If he didn’t have that, he’d be in that uppermost tier of players, since he’d have the hit tool, power and defense at a critical position. Instead, he offers the potential for that sort of player with a slightly longer timeframe and greater risk around his ability to hit when he enters pro ball.

 

[MS]

He was #8 on Keith Law's board.

Yeah, I know he's rated highly by a lot of sources. But my perception is certainly that guys who have 'too much swing and miss' and 'trouble with breaking balls' at low levels tend to struggle more and more moving up levels.

And again : otherwise I really can't comment on that player. Those phrases are just always a red flag to me.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

now lets snag sykora in the third

 

[canucksfan]

Yeah, I know he's rated highly by a lot of sources. But my perception is certainly that guys who have 'too much swing and miss' and 'trouble with breaking balls' at low levels tend to struggle more and more moving up levels.

And again : otherwise I really can't comment on that player. Those phrases are just always a red flag to me.

One thing to keep in mind, he's very young and he can use the Dunedin training facilities as well.

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[MS]

One thing to keep in mind, he's very young and he can use the Dunedin training facilities as well.

For sure, but picks like DJ Davis (over Corey Seager) and JP Arencibia still stick pretty firmly in my mind.

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[phillipmike]

Here are some Keith Law quotes:

“a steal for Toronto”

“one of the youngest players in the draft class”

“highly projectable shortstop who is going to end up with maybe 70 power, at least 60, and has a powerful right-handed swing”

“very likely to stay at shortstop, with great instincts and a plus arm”

Damn, 70 grade power? That’s borderline Vladdy.

Nimmala’s rankings by the various publications:

17 - BA

8 - The Athletic

11 - MLB Pipeline

11 - ESPN

So to get him at 20 overall looks good.

 

[metafour]

Yeah, I know he's rated highly by a lot of sources. But my perception is certainly that guys who have 'too much swing and miss' and 'trouble with breaking balls' at low levels tend to struggle more and more moving up levels.

And again : otherwise I really can't comment on that player. Those phrases are just always a red flag to me.

Yes of course. This is obviously a high-risk profile, however it should be noted that there have been some examples of top HS talents who "slid" after swinging-and-missing more than expected in their SR seasons and then quickly asserted themselves as elite prospects: Nolan Gorman and James Wood (who was utterly horrendous his senior season).

Of course, there are also guys who swung and missed as HS seniors and then continued to do that as Pro's and became complete flops. Then again you also have guys liked Austin Martin who had "70 grade hit tools" who somehow can't even hit at a .250 clip all of a sudden in the minors.

In a historically strong draft the Jays got screwed with the loss of a 2nd round pick resulting in a bottom-tier bonus pool, and yet they still managed to land a ~Top 10 talent with elite upside. I think they played the draft correctly given where they were picking.

 

[phillipmike]

For the 1st time in AL East history, the Yankees and Red Sox will head into the ASB as bottom 2 in the division

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[stickty111]

For sure, but picks like DJ Davis (over Corey Seager) and JP Arencibia still stick pretty firmly in my mind.

Wait did that happen? I know every team has misses like that but didn't know that one.

 

[metafour]

Wait did that happen? I know every team has misses like that but didn't know that one.

It did but Davis was a deliberate underslot pick at #17, whereas Seager ended up going over-slot (and was a known over-slot guy). This was the draft where the Jays took Stroman at #22 after he fell from the Top 10.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

He was #8 on Keith Law's board.

How's your boy Gunnar Hoglund doing, bud?