The Official 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot - Update: Scott Rolen the only one going to the HOF

2023 Hall of Fame Ballot - Who should get in?


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Mongo

Mongo likes candy!
Nov 27, 2008
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Pujols was an 86.6 WAR player in those first 11 seasons in St. Louis. He could've retired then and been an automatic HOFer. Jones' first half of his career wasn't on that level.

It's not that Jones' back half is a negative on his resume, it's that his front-half isn't so good that it outweighs the lack on longevity in his resume. If he had a few more good years, he'd go from fringe HOF to solid HOF.
He is one of the best defensive players of all time and in an important position. Which should be enough for the HOF and still hit well enough. His WAR from 1996-2005 is only behind Bonds and A-Rod in that time frame. Seems good enough.

I see people bringing up Edmonds and Lofton. Edmonds offense is basically even with Jones and Jones trumps him easily on defensive metrics. Jones’ dWar is 24.4 and Edmonds is 6.4. Edmonds was more flash than substance.

Lofton was very good in CF(15.5 dWar) but Lofton wishes he could hit as well as Jones. He was more of slap hitter so you can’t expect him to have the power and RBI numbers. Lofton was good at getting on base and stealing bases but teams would much rather have the 400HR/1200RBI guy.

Which is why Griffey and mays get mentioned as better players, and they are better players because they bring great defense and great to generational offense. Where as Jones is All-Time defense and average to above average Offense. But defense is part of the game and if you’re that good, you should be in the hall of fame.
 

Neutrinos

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Sep 23, 2016
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Jones is one of four players in baseball history to hit 400 home runs and win 10 Gold Gloves — the other three are Hall of Famers Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Schmidt.

I have a pretty obvious bias, but it's stupid he's not in.

Only 4 players in history have finished their career with at least 250 HR, 400 SB, , 2400 hits, and a 125 OPS+

Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Joe Morgan, and... Bobby Abreu

It can certainly help give us a greater appreciation for a player's career when we see they've achieved a career total in a few different categories that very few have

But should 400+ HR and 10+ Gold Gloves alone warrant induction? Those milestones could be achieved by a player who finishes their career with a .250 OBP, and 0.0 WAR. And while Gold Gloves look nice on a resume, it's an award that has often been heavily influenced by reputation or perception, and does nothing to provide us with the actual defensive value a player brought to their team

In fact, given how frequently throughout history the voters were negligent in their duties to identify the most deserving player, I don't know why we continue to assign any meaningful value to awards which were determined by their vote
 
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bleedblue1223

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Jan 21, 2011
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People keep saying basically equal to Edmonds on offense, and that's just not true. Edmonds peak had a much higher OPS+ and offensive WAR. They were similar in net. Edmonds had the advantage offensively, Jones had defense, and in net they were basically the same.

I'd personally put both in, but they are very much edge cases, where I'm not going to argue that much if they don't make it.
 

Unholy Diver

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Oct 13, 2002
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This is where we disagree. I just don't see how 10 GG's, 10 seasons of putting up 26+ homers, over 400 for his career, and always discussed as being at least a top-3 best defensive outfielder of all time isn't enough.

Dave Kingman has 400+ hr and 10 seasons of 26 or more too

If Jones makes it, the GG's and Fielding prowess will carry a lot of weight
 

Mongo

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Dave Kingman has 400+ hr and 10 seasons of 26 or more too

If Jones makes it, the GG's and Fielding prowess will carry a lot of weight

Why should it not carry a lot of weight? Half of your job as a position player is defense. His defense is as good as it gets in the history of the game.

Edgar Martinez was the first true DH put in the hall of fame. The knock on DH’s is that they didn’t play defense. Yet it seems nobody values defense at all and just regurgitate hitting stats. How can it be both ways?
 

Neutrinos

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Sep 23, 2016
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He is one of the best defensive players of all time and in an important position. Which should be enough for the HOF and still hit well enough. His WAR from 1996-2005 is only behind Bonds and A-Rod in that time frame. Seems good enough.

I see people bringing up Edmonds and Lofton. Edmonds offense is basically even with Jones and Jones trumps him easily on defensive metrics. Jones’ dWar is 24.4 and Edmonds is 6.4. Edmonds was more flash than substance.

Lofton was very good in CF(15.5 dWar) but Lofton wishes he could hit as well as Jones. He was more of slap hitter so you can’t expect him to have the power and RBI numbers. Lofton was good at getting on base and stealing bases but teams would much rather have the 400HR/1200RBI guy.

Which is why Griffey and mays get mentioned as better players, and they are better players because they bring great defense and great to generational offense. Where as Jones is All-Time defense and average to above average Offense. But defense is part of the game and if you’re that good, you should be in the hall of fame.

I don't think you can point to Jones' career dWar and where that places him on the all-time list as conclusive evidence he is "one of the best defensive players of all time"

Player A could post a 1.5 dWar in every season of his 15 year career, which would bump Ivan Rodriguez out of 8th place on the all-time list

Does that mean Player A is one of the best defensive players ever?

Player A peaked at 1.5 dWar, while Ivan Rodriguez was posting seasons of 3.3, 3.0, and consecutive years with 2.7
 

Unholy Diver

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Why should it not carry a lot of weight? Half of your job as a position player is defense. His defense is as good as it gets in the history of the game.

Edgar Martinez was the first true DH put in the hall of fame. The knock on DH’s is that they didn’t play defense. Yet it seems nobody values defense at all and just regurgitate hitting stats. How can it be both ways?

I'm not saying it shouldn't. I'm saying 400+ hrs and 10 yrs of 26+ is nice but won't be enough to get you in by itself
 

adsfan

#164303
May 31, 2008
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Yea, Walker getting in finally opened the door for him, the Coors Field bias died down.

Sheffield hopefully gets the call as well. Would be cool if he went in with a Marlins cap; would be the first player to do so.

Also, Beltre would be the 3rd guy with a Ranger cap - only the 2nd after Pudge who spent the majority of their career with the team/had their best years.
Gary Sheffield claimed that while he was with the Brewers, he "tried to lose games". To me, that is like being one of the 1918 Chicago "Black" Sox. He should NEVER get in the HOF, if Pete Rose doesn't. At least Rose always played to win a game despite his illegal and immoral gambling habit(s). Rose knew BB betting was a 3rd rail.

My wife says that Golden Teeth Gary was an ass. She rarely has a strong opinion about any "sportsman".

I couldn't find the quote above, but I did find this article about Gary Sheffield. Read it for yorselves. It suggests that he was a steroid user, one of many on the Yankees.


I would like to see Beltran and Billy Wagner get in next year. Andruw Jones always impressed me.
 
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Mongo

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I don't think you can point to Jones' career dWar and where that places him on the all-time list as conclusive evidence he is "one of the best defensive players of all time"

Player A could post a 1.5 dWar in every season of his 15 year career, which would bump Ivan Rodriguez out of 8th place on the all-time list

Does that mean Player A is one of the best defensive players ever?

Player A peaked at 1.5 dWar, while Ivan Rodriguez was posting seasons of 3.3, 3.0, and consecutive years with 2.7
15x 1.5 is only 22.5 but I understand your point. There are compilers, but Jones wasn’t a compiler and had multiple 3.0+ dWar seasons with a peak of 3.9.

But I also don’t need dWar only to know that the dude could play. He passed the eye test and has the defensive metrics to prove it. We can talk how a 1.5 can compile for however long. End of the day Jones still has the best dWar all time for CF.
 

Cas

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He is one of the best defensive players of all time and in an important position. Which should be enough for the HOF and still hit well enough. His WAR from 1996-2005 is only behind Bonds and A-Rod in that time frame. Seems good enough.

I see people bringing up Edmonds and Lofton. Edmonds offense is basically even with Jones and Jones trumps him easily on defensive metrics. Jones’ dWar is 24.4 and Edmonds is 6.4. Edmonds was more flash than substance.

Lofton was very good in CF(15.5 dWar) but Lofton wishes he could hit as well as Jones. He was more of slap hitter so you can’t expect him to have the power and RBI numbers. Lofton was good at getting on base and stealing bases but teams would much rather have the 400HR/1200RBI guy.

Which is why Griffey and mays get mentioned as better players, and they are better players because they bring great defense and great to generational offense. Where as Jones is All-Time defense and average to above average Offense. But defense is part of the game and if you’re that good, you should be in the hall of fame.
I think you're underrating Lofton and Edmonds here.

Lofton did not have much power, but he did hit for average very well and got on base very well, and those make up a lot of ground on Jones' superior power. Edmonds was a class above both as a hitter, combining a good batting average with good OBP and good power. Look at their batting runs above replacement for their above-replacement seasons:

Jones - 31, 28, 21, 20, 13, 12, 9, 7, 6, 1
Lofton - 34*, 19, 18, 17, 13, 10, 9, 7, 6*, 6, 5, 5, 2, 1, 1 (* strike years)
Edmonds - 52, 42, 39, 37, 36, 23, 23, 20, 17*, 14, 9, 4

Lofton of course also added a ton of extra value with his legs (+102 runs, compared to +8 for Jones and -4 for Edmonds).

The gap, of course, is significantly closed with Jones' superlative defense (+235 runs), but Lofton was no slouch (+108) and Edmonds was also quite good (+37). Eliminating poor years and focusing on peak pretty much shows the same overall results.

In the end, the three all come off pretty close to each other - 68.4 WAR for Lofton, 62.7 for Jones, and 60.4 for Edmonds. by WAA, they're also pretty close - 38.4 to 35.0. Lofton looks a little better because he was never really bad (save for his 1991 cup of coffee, Lofton had positive WAR every season of his career, and positive WAA for every year save two). Sorting by peak seasons shows basically the same results.

Basically, Jones had one area where he was maybe the most talented player in the history of the sport (defense in center field), but he did not really dominate in other areas that two of his contemporaries excelled in (getting on base, running the bases, hitting for power), which allowed them to close the gap in overall value. I'd elect all three, but I do not see any of them being clearly ahead of the other two, though if push came to shove I'd pick Lofton.

I can see an argument that the greatest ever in one area deserves more consideration, and Jones does have a very strong case as the greatest defensive center fielder ever. I'm not sure I'd be convinced of that argument, though - I'm not going to advocate for Mark Belanger for the Hall, though he would be my pick for the greatest defensive shortstop in history (Ozzie Smith is close but Belanger probably crammed about as much value in significantly fewer innings; Smith belongs because he was also a better hitter and baserunner and is clearly qualified in overall value).


Why should it not carry a lot of weight? Half of your job as a position player is defense. His defense is as good as it gets in the history of the game.

Half of your job in terms of time, but not half of your job in terms of value. The bulk of a position players' value is in their hitting (in aggregate), because the replacement value of a fielder is much higher.
 

Neutrinos

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15x 1.5 is only 22.5 but I understand your point. There are compilers, but Jones wasn’t a compiler and had multiple 3.0+ dWar seasons with a peak of 3.9.

But I also don’t need dWar only to know that the dude could play. He passed the eye test and has the defensive metrics to prove it. We can talk how a 1.5 can compile for however long. End of the day Jones still has the best dWar all time for CF.

It sure is! I initially typed 15 x 2, but decided to go 20 years instead, and forgot to complete the edit

Griffey peaked at a 3.4 dWar in 140 games, Devon White matched Jones' peak at 3.9, and Kiermaier has them all beat at 4.6

So, if we're picking an all-time defensive team, which is about identifying the best defensive player per position, is Jones the best, or were others just as good - or possibly better - but had shorter peaks?

It would interesting to see if elite defensive outfielders who played their home games on turf had a noticeably shorter peak than those who played on grass
 

Voight

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Feb 8, 2012
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Gary Sheffield claimed that while he was with the Brewers, he "tried to lose games". To me, that is like being one of the 1918 Chicago "Black" Sox. He should NEVER get in the HOF, if Pete Rose doesn't. At least Rose always played to win a game despite his illegal and immoral gambling habit(s). Rose knew BB betting was a 3rd rail.

My wife says that Golden Teeth Gary was an ass. She rarely has a strong opinion about any "sportsman".

I couldn't find the quote above, but I did find this article about Gary Sheffield. Read it for yorselves. It suggests that he was a steroid user, one of many on the Yankees.


I would like to see Beltran and Billy Wagner get in next year. Andruw Jones always impressed me.

Well, they let Ortiz + Piazza in and both (Ortiz more so) were alleged steroid users. The voters seem lenient so long as theres no inadmissible evidence.

He also has more (f)WAR than inductees Andre Dawson, Dave Winfield, Ichiro, Guerrero Sr (yes he debuted later than most but they are close in GP) and hes not far behind Gwynn, Raines, Yount and others.


Jones' first decade was outstanding but his stats/play took a nosedive after he turned 30 which I'm sure is being held against him. Its almost as if he would've been better off being forced to retire with a career ending injury in 2007.
 

Terry Yake

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Aug 5, 2013
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Gary Sheffield claimed that while he was with the Brewers, he "tried to lose games". To me, that is like being one of the 1918 Chicago "Black" Sox. He should NEVER get in the HOF, if Pete Rose doesn't. At least Rose always played to win a game despite his illegal and immoral gambling habit(s). Rose knew BB betting was a 3rd rail.

My wife says that Golden Teeth Gary was an ass. She rarely has a strong opinion about any "sportsman".

I couldn't find the quote above, but I did find this article about Gary Sheffield. Read it for yorselves. It suggests that he was a steroid user, one of many on the Yankees.


I would like to see Beltran and Billy Wagner get in next year. Andruw Jones always impressed me.
sheffield likely won't get in anyways due to his association with PEDs. that, and he was also an asshole
 
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blueandgoldguy

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Too much is being put on the last few years of his career. From 2001-2006, he averaged 38 HR and 110 RBI a year while winning a Gold Glove in each of those seasons. He's arguably the greatest defensive outfielder in the history of the sport.

Saw this tweet as well:

Seasons with at least 25 home runs and 25 defensive runs saved as a centerfielder: Andruw Jones - 4 The other 19,901 players in history combined - 2
High home run counts were nothing special during his prime though. Lots of players were hitting 30+ homeruns. The other players mentioned, produced high homerun counts during an era in which the long bomb was far less common.

Edmonds and Andruw Jones have similar Wars. Jones has like 2.0 more career WAR than Edmonds but played 150 - 200 more games. If one gets in, so should the other.
 
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blueandgoldguy

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He is one of the best defensive players of all time and in an important position. Which should be enough for the HOF and still hit well enough. His WAR from 1996-2005 is only behind Bonds and A-Rod in that time frame. Seems good enough.

I see people bringing up Edmonds and Lofton. Edmonds offense is basically even with Jones and Jones trumps him easily on defensive metrics. Jones’ dWar is 24.4 and Edmonds is 6.4. Edmonds was more flash than substance.

Lofton was very good in CF(15.5 dWar) but Lofton wishes he could hit as well as Jones. He was more of slap hitter so you can’t expect him to have the power and RBI numbers. Lofton was good at getting on base and stealing bases but teams would much rather have the 400HR/1200RBI guy.

Which is why Griffey and mays get mentioned as better players, and they are better players because they bring great defense and great to generational offense. Where as Jones is All-Time defense and average to above average Offense. But defense is part of the game and if you’re that good, you should be in the hall of fame.
And yet Lofton has the higher career WAR despite playing fewer games.

I would think the veterans committee will eventually decide to nominate the likes of Jones (assuming he doesn't reach it in the next 4 years), Edmonds and Lofton a few years down the road, just like they did with McGriff.
 

BigBadBruins7708

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I'm not saying it shouldn't. I'm saying 400+ hrs and 10 yrs of 26+ is nice but won't be enough to get you in by itself

No but its a good feather in the cap for a guy in the conversation of best defensive center fielder ever.

Would Andruw Jones make my Hall? Probably not. But in a Hall that has set the standard by admitting 2 guys who were average hitters with the calling card of great defense (Ozzie Smith and Rolen), Andruw Jones needs to be in as well.
 
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Neutrinos

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No but its a good feather in the cap for a guy in the conversation of best defensive center fielder ever.

Would Andruw Jones make my Hall? Probably not. But in a Hall that has set the standard by admitting 2 guys who were average hitters with the calling card of great defense (Ozzie Smith and Rolen), Andruw Jones needs to be in as well.

Rolen's stats per 162 games from age 22 - 35:

101 runs, 42 doubles, 26 HR, 105 RBI, .284 AVG, .370 OBP, .870 OPS, 125 OPS+

That level of production makes him an average hitter among Hall of Famers, not among his contemporaries
 

Neutrinos

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If Rolen is a HOF then Robin Ventura should be in

The HOF becoming more and more the hall of pretty good.
WAR per 650 PA across 14 year prime:

Rolen = 5.7
Ventura = 4.5
Longoria = 4.9
Beltre = 5.8
Larkin = 5.8
Sandberg = 5.1
Biggio = 4.3
Alomar = 4.9
Jeter = 4.5
Ozzie Smith = 5.2
Schmidt = 7.5
 
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Cas

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If Rolen is a HOF then Robin Ventura should be in

The HOF becoming more and more the hall of pretty good.
The Hall of Fame has never been only the greatest of the greats.

Rolen is also significantly better than Ventura, who really was no slouch, and was better than multiple third basemen already in the Hall (Traynor, Lindstrom, Kell). Ventura is challenging for the top 25 among third basemen all time.

Rolen compares favorably to pretty much anyone who isn't the top eight (Schmidt, Mathews, Boggs, Brett, Beltre, Santo, Jones, and Robinson). Rolen is in a group with Frank Baker, Jud Wilson, Ken Boyer, Graig Nettles, maybe Buddy Bell and Dick Allen - essentially, he's somewhere between the 9th and 12th greatest third baseman in the history of the sport. That's a clear Hall of Famer.
 

Voight

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Andruw Jones is one of the best center fielders of all time. Yes, he had a steep drop off in production at the end of his career. But I don't even know what to say at this point.

Too much is being put on the last few years of his career. From 2001-2006, he averaged 38 HR and 110 RBI a year while winning a Gold Glove in each of those seasons. He's arguably the greatest defensive outfielder in the history of the sport.

Saw this tweet as well:

Seasons with at least 25 home runs and 25 defensive runs saved as a centerfielder: Andruw Jones - 4 The other 19,901 players in history combined - 2

The issue is how many Cooperstown inductees had drop offs like that? His production literally declined by about 50%.

...and I agree.

I just don't think the dropoff of Jones the last few years should define his career. Just like Albert.

Pujols still managed roughly 15 WAR in the post-STL years, far from world beating but he wasn't a negative value player every year. He also had Seven 90+ RBI & three 30 HR years in that time frame - which are a bonus for the counting stats crowd.

Regardless, as others here have stated, his time in STL made him an indisputable hall of famer. There was 0 debate by the time he played his last inning as a Card (at that time).
 

Neutrinos

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The Hall of Fame has never been only the greatest of the greats.

Rolen is also significantly better than Ventura, who really was no slouch, and was better than multiple third basemen already in the Hall (Traynor, Lindstrom, Kell). Ventura is challenging for the top 25 among third basemen all time.

Rolen compares favorably to pretty much anyone who isn't the top eight (Schmidt, Mathews, Boggs, Brett, Beltre, Santo, Jones, and Robinson). Rolen is in a group with Frank Baker, Jud Wilson, Ken Boyer, Graig Nettles, maybe Buddy Bell and Dick Allen - essentially, he's somewhere between the 9th and 12th greatest third baseman in the history of the sport. That's a clear Hall of Famer.

Average WAR per 650 PA over their best 14 year stretch:

Schmidt = 7.5
Matthews = 6.7
Brett = 6.5
Boggs = 6.2
Beltre = 5.8
Rolen = 5.7
Jones = 5.6
Santo = 5.2
Robinson = 5.0
 
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GIN ANTONIC

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Good god… I can’t believe so many knowledgable posters on here don’t seem to grasp how good Scott Rolen was at baseball. He’s absolutely a hall of famer. He wasn’t a flashy player I guess but holy hell he got the job done at a super high level and everything we have on him supports that.
 

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