HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[xposbrad]

2 points ahead of where they were at this point last year and everything about their point accumulation is pointing to heavy regression.

The tank will happen.

Last year, I was a lot more confident, this year I am not. I don't think we crack the bottom 10, and the near the playoff hunt will tease some fans. Ohhh we can make the playoffs, ohh anything can happen. Then come draft day and we are drafting like 13th and it was all for nothing.

Sorry get used to being mediocre and not drafting top 5 again.

 

[Lshap]

One thing that might help: There are fewer outright tanks this season because teams aren't rushing to the bottom to grab a generational pick like Bedard. Ottawa, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Edmonton, Seattle are trying to win and will likely end up with better records than us.

 

[salbutera]

One thing that might help: There are fewer outright tanks this season because teams aren't rushing to the bottom to grab a generational pick like Bedard. Ottawa, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Edmonton, Seattle are trying to win and will likely end up with better records than us.

All those teams were trying to win last year as well.

CBJ & Ana came into this season trying to win - it’s one thing to try it’s another to overcome years of losing culture, especially w parity in the league.

The marching between winning & losing is razor thin - competition from 1-32 has never been as great

 

[Lshap]

All those teams were trying to win last year as well.

CBJ & Ana came into this season trying to win - it’s one thing to try it’s another to overcome years of losing culture, especially w parity in the league.

The marching between winning & losing is razor thin - competition from 1-32 has never been as great

Last year, Ottawa, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Edmonton, and Seattle finished above us. This year they're blocking our way to a top-10 pick. I don't think that'll last. Those teams have decent rosters and are actively trying to improve, so I'm betting they'll start winning more than they lose and finish above us in the standings. At least most will. Plus, two of last year's tank teams – Philadelphia and Arizona – are doing well.

I actually don't think the Habs are overachieving. Rather, I think a few other teams are underachieving. Give it another month or so and we'll see the bottom-10 clear out and make room for Montreal around 7th or 8th.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Last year, I was a lot more confident, this year I am not. I don't think we crack the bottom 10, and the near the playoff hunt will tease some fans. Ohhh we can make the playoffs, ohh anything can happen. Then come draft day and we are drafting like 13th and it was all for nothing.

Sorry get used to being mediocre and not drafting top 5 again.

I don't expect a top 5 pick again, but we will pick in the top 10.

And don't forget the Buffalo Sabres drafted Zach Benson at 13 just last year, we got Caufield at 15. You can still find good players in the top half of the draft.

 

[Benstheman]

Definately can get a solid forward between 8OA and 13OA.

Unike last draft, i don't think there are elite forwards except for Celebrini. 1st liners and top 6 players?? sure. We have to find one with our pick.

 

[salbutera]

Definately can get a solid forward between 8OA and 13OA.

Unike last draft, i don't think there are elite forwards except for Celebrini. 1st liners and top 6 players?? sure. We have to find one with our pick.

Eiserman

 

[WeThreeKings]

Definately can get a solid forward between 8OA and 13OA.

Unike last draft, i don't think there are elite forwards except for Celebrini. 1st liners and top 6 players?? sure. We have to find one with our pick.

Demidov has an offensive upside just as high as anyone in the last draft save Bedard.. but the rest of his game and translatability will be a question that drives him down.

 

[sandviper]

2 points ahead of where they were at this point last year and everything about their point accumulation is pointing to heavy regression.

The tank will happen.

Despite the win, still pretty confident we’re going to lose a lot more. My concern is the idiot teams around us who can’t seem to figure it out; OTT, BUF…

 

[WeThreeKings]

Despite the win, still pretty confident we’re going to lose a lot more. My concern is the idiot teams around us who can’t seem to figure it out; OTT, BUF…

Buoyed by unsustainable goaltending and a lot of OT games.

The Habs will steal less games because of goaltending and won't get to OT near as much.

 

[rahad]

2 points ahead of where they were at this point last year and everything about their point accumulation is pointing to heavy regression.

The tank will happen.

I understand your point. we are similar in point from last season. At the same time, we also had record breaking injury in the 2022-2023 season.

Around nov-dec++ : we lost Monahan, Dach, Ghule, Slaf, Caufield and Gally.

Just having Monahan, Ghule and Caufield will make it hard to finish in the bottom 5. Maybe bottom 10? I don't see us finishing in the bottom.

We will probably end up #8-10.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I understand your point. we are similar in point from last season. At the same time, we also had record breaking injury in the 2022-2023 season.

Around nov-dec++ : we lost Monahan, Dach, Ghule, Slaf, Caufield and Gally.

Just having Monahan, Ghule and Caufield will make it hard to finish in the bottom 5. Maybe bottom 10? I don't see us finishing in the bottom.

We will probably end up #8-10.

6-10 looks like the reasonable assumption.. unless of course they continue to get goalie steals at the highest percentage of the league and continue to unsustainably get to and win in OT.

I doubt both those things continue and we still have a lot of injuries.. Dach and Newhook out really depletes the line-up.

 

[Lshap]

View attachment 786332

Buoyed by unsustainable goaltending and a lot of OT games.

The Habs will steal less games because of goaltending and won't get to OT near as much.

This Steal% chart reminds me of the 'Deserve-o-Meter', or whatever the hell it's called – rankings based on someone's personal feelings about how a team or player should perform. Meh... I'm not a fan.

I don't think Montembeault's performances are unsustainable. In fact, he's ranked #2 in the league on the 'Better-Than-You-Thought-o-Meter'.

 

[WeThreeKings]

This Steal% chart reminds me of the 'Deserve-o-Meter', or whatever the hell it's called – rankings based on someone's personal feelings about how a team or player should perform. Meh... I'm not a fan.

I don't think Montembeault's performances are unsustainable. In fact, he's ranked #2 in the league on the 'Better-Than-You-Thought-o-Meter'.

I mean you're free to disagree with any type of metric.. the only thing is, there isn't really any metrics out there to support the Habs maintaining the record they currently have.

Regression always hits, sometimes it hits a little bit too late, sometimes it hits too hard and corrects itself.. but regression comes and it will come for the Habs because there's nothing indicating that the team with the lowest amount of regulation wins in the entire league and the 6th worst goal differential in the league will continue to pace like this.

 

[Lshap]

I mean you're free to disagree with any type of metric.. the only thing is, there isn't really any metrics out there to support the Habs maintaining the record they currently have.

Regression always hits, sometimes it hits a little bit too late, sometimes it hits too hard and corrects itself.. but regression comes and it will come for the Habs because there's nothing indicating that the team with the lowest amount of regulation wins in the entire league and the 6th worst goal differential in the league will continue to pace like this.

I agree, I think the team will regress somewhat. I see them finishing in almost the exact same position as you do – between 7th and 10th. Except I don't think it'll be because Montembeault breaks down or the team craters like they did last year. I see a few teams currently below us improving and gradually passing us, leaving us floating a little below .500 and in the bottom-10.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I agree, I think the team will regress somewhat. I see them finishing in almost the exact same position as you do – between 7th and 10th. Except I don't think it'll be because Montembeault breaks down or the team craters like they did last year. I see a few teams currently below us improving and gradually passing us, leaving us floating a little below .500 and in the bottom-10.

They just won't steal games at that percentage as we go.. it's less about Montembeault cause he did it last year too, but to have another two goalies also contributing a near 30% steal rate in their starts.. it's unlikely that you'd get that level of goaltending out of 3 goalies over 82 games.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Buffalo roster is almost a full year younger than the Habs and their management refuse to spend to improve.

Yeah for sure, I agree that the Sabres are absolute cowards, but there is no way we stay ahead of them over 82 IMO. Our 3rd best overall forward is Sean Monahan, and while I do think Buffalo's core is overrated, there is just no comparison in the depth of talent between these two teams at the moment.

Seattle overachieved last season, they finished 4th two years ago. They don't have any game breaking talent to get them out of where they are.

Our top end isn't any better, and Seattle's depth is stronger than ours (especially with Newhook & Dach injured). I don't think Seattle is particularly great, but the Habs' record is a mirage. We're a bottom 5-7ish team that's currently getting a lot of OT luck, and I think Seattle is more of a mushy middle ~78-82 point team by the end of the year.

Calgary are apparently already planning to be sellers at the deadline and aiming for a re-tool this off-season.

So are we. The only reason we won't sell as much as Calgary is there isn't enough left to sell anymore. Calgary is probably the most likely of the non-obvious tankers to stay behind us but they're not really going to be able to trade everyone, it'll probably end up being just Lindholm and Hanifin and I think they still have enough in place to finish ahead of us.

I also don't expect the Habs to have a long 7-9 games losing stretch this season, outside maybe post deadline if they do lots of trades and have to add some of the prospects in the AHL to fill the holes.

I wouldn't count on any team necessarily losing 7 games in a row in today's NHL, but I don't see why we wouldn't expect this roster to go through some really bad stretches. Jake Evans is our 2C, Savard is our #2D, and we'll probably trade at least Monahan at the deadline. The 3rd line of Armia/Dvorak/Gallagher is probably the only line or D pairing on the roster that is appropriately slotted, every other line is not really up to NHL standard for its role in the lineup at the moment. Justin Barron is categorically not a top 4 defenceman at this stage in his career, Anderson is not and will never be a legitimate top 6 forward, etc.

I think we're in a pretty "good" spot where IMO the only way we will stay out of the bottom 5-8 range is if the Slafkovsky/Suzuki/Caufield line catches fire and sustains 1st line production the rest of the year which would be a very positive reason to be picking something like 12th instead of 6th.

 

[Riggins]

This is probably a 75 point team give or take a couple points. I'll be very surprised if they finish with 80+ points. We'll be in with a chance at Celebrini at least. Don't think there's too much difference picking #2-10 this year.

If we're looking at the 2024 and 2025 drafts, we'll have a few chances to add much-needed forward talent. A top 10 pick this year, another top 10-15 in 2025 and possibly a #11-16 from Calgary next year if they don't stink too bad(not counting on Florida helping us and finishing bottom 10). They really need to hit a homerun on one of those three picks.

 

[morhilane]

I agree, I think the team will regress somewhat. I see them finishing in almost the exact same position as you do – between 7th and 10th. Except I don't think it'll be because Montembeault breaks down or the team craters like they did last year. I see a few teams currently below us improving and gradually passing us, leaving us floating a little below .500 and in the bottom-10.

Oilers and Wilds should pass the Habs, they are on a very good stretch since changing coaches. Tampa should manage a last minute effort. That would put the Habs 9-10th.

Reading this thread, some people make it looks like the Habs are 16+ in the standings. They are 12th worst in point percentage, just a few loses away from the 7th-10th range. It doesn't even take regression, it just take playing a few more top teams.

 

[salbutera]

They just won't steal games at that percentage as we go.. it's less about Montembeault cause he did it last year too, but to have another two goalies also contributing a near 30% steal rate in their starts.. it's unlikely that you'd get that level of goaltending out of 3 goalies over 82 games.

Allen has borderline elite sv% when limited to 36GP or less he’s on pace for 32GP… so yes i believe Allen can continue that “level of goaltending” simply based off career trend

 

[Lshap]

Allen has borderline elite sv% when limited to 36GP or less he’s on pace for 32GP… so yes i believe Allen can continue that “level of goaltending” simply based off career trend

It looks like goaltending is becoming more platooned than ever. I wonder how many clear #1 goalies there will be playing 50-60 games, or if having a 1A / 2A duo will become the standard.

 

[Colezuki]

It looks like goaltending is becoming more platooned than ever. I wonder how many clear #1 goalies there will be playing 50-60 games, or if having a 1A / 2A duo will become the standard.

I think we're going to get to a point that 50 games equals a A and a 32 games equals a backup

 

[Lshap]

I think we're going to get to a point that 50 games equals a A and a 32 games equals a backup

It'd be interesting if goaltending becomes as micromanaged as pitching in MLB. Start the game with the goalie who starts strongest, bring in a relief goalie for the 2nd period, then bring in the closer for the final 10 minutes.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

f*** your case in point. Ottawa, Buffalo, and other teams have picked high forever and it gave them nothing. It takes more than that, but I wouldn't expect one track minds like yours that know nothing about building a team to understand. Like I said, we picked 5 times in the top 10 in the last 11 years already and it gave nothing up to now.

Cry me a river with your Ottawa and Buffalo. It's like you guys are a tape machine that plays the same shit over and over.

Drafting high is one of the components of building a successful team. It's not the ONLY component, but it does predict longterm elite success probably more than anything else. You're gonna use us as an example of managerial incompetence? Well, sure... You're correct. And? You're saying incompetent teams don't win regardless of drafting high?

We've got a genius over here, folks.

 

[Colezuki]

It'd be interesting if goaltending becomes as micromanaged as pitching in MLB. Start the game with the goalie who starts strongest, bring in a relief goalie for the 2nd period, then bring in the closer for the final 10 minutes.

Would be interesting but I don’t think you’d ever see a full one. I think it’s more likely a 2nd intermission sub