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HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

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WeThreeKings said:
Timing is an issue when coming back off a concussion, he hasn't even found his timing back in the AHL.
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Sid was not quite himself for a long stretch of games when he finally returned from his last one.
It's the multiple thing that can be scary.
I'm still frightened for Evans in many games. A next one could be a career ender.
 
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Lafleurs Guy said:
I was clear in my expectations. Bottom ten. When Dach went down I revised to bottom five. That’s about where we’re playing at. In line with expectations.

Good news (and bad) is that goaltending has been terrific. The loser points and OT wins have bumped us up- not good. But I think Montie is proving himself to be a legit starter and that’s great.
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I know, I'm saying that your expectations were too low/negative to begin with lol

We've had a mix of good & bad news this year. It's of course subjective & debatable, but I'd argue that the "bad" has been a bigger impact than the good.

Monty is not playing at unpredictably high level... Many of us, the team included (& I'm sure him) felt that he could very well earn a contract extension by playing at a solid #1 level. If anything, he had a bit of a slow start.

The injuries once again put us among the league leader in games lost... And it's been heavy on key pieces.
2x top 6 forwards, opening night top pair RD, and 3 other opening night players. Few teams have dealt with that much injury adversity through 30 games.

The point structure is the same for all teams. Vegas & Toronto have more OT wins than us, are they also "bumped up".
 
Miller Time said:
I know, I'm saying that your expectations were too low/negative to begin with lol
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The numbers bear out my prediction though. We’re playing like a bottom five team with spectacular goaltending.
Miller Time said:
We've had a mix of good & bad news this year. It's of course subjective & debatable, but I'd argue that the "bad" has been a bigger impact than the good.
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Absolutely. That’s why we went from bottom ten in terms of play to bottom five.
Miller Time said:
Monty is not playing at unpredictably high level... Many of us, the team included (& I'm sure him) felt that he could very well earn a contract extension by playing at a solid #1 level. If anything, he had a bit of a slow start.
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The Canadiens have - by far - the best goals against expected in the league. Even if we thought he’d be good, nobody could’ve predicted how good our goalies would be overall.
Miller Time said:
The injuries once again put us among the league leader in games lost... And it's been heavy on key pieces.
2x top 6 forwards, opening night top pair RD, and 3 other opening night players. Few teams have dealt with that much injury adversity through 30 games.
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Like I said, that’s what accounts us going from ten to five. We’d absolutely have even better offensively but defensively we are still very, very green.
Miller Time said:
The point structure is the same for all teams. Vegas & Toronto have more OT wins than us, are they also "bumped up".
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Sure. But they’re playing better hockey than we are.
 
Lafleurs Guy said:
The numbers bear out my prediction though. We’re playing like a bottom five team with spectacular goaltending.
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The numbers you choose to focus on...

The most important number, doesn't.

Lafleurs Guy said:
Absolutely. That’s why we went from bottom ten in terms of play to bottom five.

The Canadiens have - by far - the best goals against expected in the league. Even if we thought he’d be good, nobody could’ve predicted how good our goalies would be overall.
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This isn't baseball. Goals against is not solely a goaltender stat the way batting average is.

Lafleurs Guy said:
Like I said, that’s what accounts us going from ten to five. We’d absolutely have even better offensively but defensively we are still very, very green.
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That's what you think accounts for it...

This isn't football. Offense & defense aren't mostly mutually exclusive.

We are very very green top to bottom. Our fwd group is also one of the youngest in the league I believe... And the injuries up front have actually aged our group rather than make it younger as it typically does



Lafleurs Guy said:
Sure. But they’re playing better hockey than we are.
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Yes, and they have much better rosters.
 
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Miller Time said:
The numbers you choose to focus on...

The most important number, doesn't.
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I think the level of play is far more important. It’d be different if we were going for a playoff spot. That’s not the case though. We’re a developing team and we should be looking at how we’re actually playing now in order to make future decisions. Moreover, if we’re playing like a bottom five club I’d stagger be a seller now rather than following a mirage to go for the playoffs or trying to win now.

What matters now is how we’re playing. And we’re not playing well. Again though, it’s to be expected.
Miller Time said:
This isn't baseball. Goals against is not solely a goaltender stat the way batting average is.
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You just watched Carey Price in Montreal for the past 15 years. You’re going to tell me great goaltending doesn’t have a huge impact? Of course it does.
Miller Time said:
That's what you think accounts for it...

This isn't football. Offense & defense aren't mostly mutually exclusive.
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Sure. But I’m looking at our overall play and we’re being outplayed most nights. Goaltending, shootouts and 3 on 3 have us higher in the standings than our play warrants.
Miller Time said:
We are very very green top to bottom. Our fwd group is also one of the youngest in the league I believe... And the injuries up front have actually aged our group rather than make it younger as it typically does
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Yep. And I’m excited about the future.

That doesn’t mean I’m going to pretend we’re playing well now though.
Miller Time said:
Yes, and they have much better rosters.
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Right. And?
 
Lafleurs Guy said:
I think the level of play is far more important. It’d be different if we were going for a playoff spot. That’s not the case though. We’re a developing team and we should be looking at how we’re actually playing now in order to make future decisions. Moreover, if we’re playing like a bottom five club I’d stagger be a seller now rather than following a mirage to go for the playoffs or trying to win now.
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I see a different level of play than you do. Again, not baseball. Analytics are useful to a degree, but don't at all factor in crucial context in a dynamic interaction game like hockey.

I think if you were more inclined to differentiate btw subjective opinion and objective fact, your takes would be less problematic.

"I think" goes a long way ;)

Lafleurs Guy said:
What matters now is how we’re playing. And we’re not playing well. Again though, it’s to be expected.
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I think we are playing rather well, all things considered.

Lafleurs Guy said:
You just watched Carey Price in Montreal for the past 15 years. You’re going to tell me great goaltending doesn’t have a huge impact? Of course it does.
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And if you think what Monty has shown this season parallels Price... Nuff said 😂

Lafleurs Guy said:
Sure. But I’m looking at our overall play and we’re being outplayed most nights. Goaltending, shootouts and 3 on 3 have us higher in the standings than our play warrants.
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A weaker roster will of course get "outplayed" most nights.

A weaker roster that finds ways to win despite that, and do so with some consistency, is a positive sign.

Again. Not baseball. Goaltending & OT don't occur in a vacuum. Shout outs are the closest to that, and our 3-2 shoot out record & the 2 points net benefit they represent is hardly the driver of our current standings.

Lafleurs Guy said:
Yep. And I’m excited about the future.

That doesn’t mean I’m going to pretend we’re playing well now though.

Right. And?
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If a team is playing better than expected, that's a good thing. Not sure why one would cherry pick analytics to try to argue otherwise, but to each their own.

It's similar to the attempts you made last year to frame Suzuki's performance as reliant on Caufield... Starting from an opinion and then seeking to find small statistical samples to validate it, while ignoring key relevant data points that refute it, makes for poor assessments & bad takes.
 
Gravity said:
This grinding for OT script shit needs to stop. It's bloody brutal. Leaves this team neither here nor there.
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we've just not been a bottom 10 team this year.

Can we honestly say we were the worse team tonight? I don't think so. we're about a .500 team.
 
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