HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[FrankMTL]

OK so we'd be picking 10th if the draft was taking place today (going by point percentage) which is "ok". I'm assuming Pittsburgh will pass us at one point as they're virtually at the same point percentage. There are 3 other teams that are super close to us in point percentage as well but we will have to lose a bunch of games in a row if we wan to get into that bottom 5.

 

[montreal]

OK so we'd be picking 10th if the draft was taking place today (going by point percentage) which is "ok". I'm assuming Pittsburgh will pass us at one point as they're virtually at the same point percentage. There are 3 other teams that are super close to us in point percentage as well but we will have to lose a bunch of games in a row if we wan to get into that bottom 5.

we were sitting 10th this time last year by points,

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with over 50 games left it's hard to say where things will end up since so many teams just don't seem to be very good this year so going to need some luck for sure.

 

[montreal]

it's shaping up so far as the bottom 5 and then 6th OA to 15th OA is still way too tight but with so many games left in the season it will take another month or so to see who drops off and who turns it around.

It's kind of silly that the Jacket have played 8 more games then the Sens, I don't think I have ever seen an NHL team with 8 games in hand.

could really use a few more games going to OT. Would like to see the Pens - Yotes game tonight go OT. The Pens have lost 4 in a row and the Yotes 3 so at least finally one of them has to win.

 

[Riggins]

6 of the bottom 7 being in the West is ridiculous. Thankfully they'll start playing each other a lot and hopefully that means Seattle and Calgary banking a bunch of points against the really trash teams and eventually jumping ahead of the Habs. A 2-5 or 1-6 disastrous road trip coming up would do wonders for our positioning.

 

[cphabs]

Buffalo is laughable, no matter how many top 10 picks they lay turds year after year. Maybe that's a little lesson for us here on team tank.

Buffalo IMO was doomed after they got rid of Ruff. Their new coaches and staff are pansies. No salt but look good in a suit. The last NHL game I went to was in Buffalo. This was 10 years ago. The rink was too loud with music and had laser beams with obnoxious adds that flashed at every break in play. I shit you not…. A PR representative was approaching fans, as they left the arena, asking how they enjoyed the game. The representative asked me and I said it was not enjoyable because of the noise, interruptions, and cost. Her response? “You’re paying for the experience…”

 

[Forum93]

Buffalo IMO was doomed after they got rid of Ruff. Their new coaches and staff are pansies. No salt but look good in a suit. The last NHL game I went to was in Buffalo. This was 10 years ago. The rink was too loud with music and had laser beams with obnoxious adds that flashed at every break in play. I shit you not…. A PR representative was approaching fans, as they left the arena, asking how they enjoyed the game. The representative asked me and I said it was not enjoyable because of the noise, interruptions, and cost. Her response? “You’re paying for the experience…”

You'd have a heart attack if you "experienced" the cost today

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Buffalo was the hot new team-de-jour. A lot of people had them in the playoffs. The surprise is that a roster with so much individual talent is doing so poorly as a group. Part of the problem was predictable – everyone knew it was a gamble to throw 21 year old Devon Levi into the full-time goalie position; turns out he's still very raw. I was rooting for him – he grew up in my neighbourhood and is a genuinely great kid who comes from a great family. But goaltending is part of a deeper, more systemic problem with that franchise.

I'm guessing here – aside from poor goaltending, Buffalo looks like it's missing leadership and a winning culture. They expected it to bloom during the Eichel era, but it turns out hockey talent and leadership are two different qualities. Now they're in the... um... Okposo era...? So who's the role model for these kids?

Again, I obviously don't know what the mood is in the dressing room, but the Sabres are a cautionary tale that building a winning team is more than adding pieces. They've drafted and traded well, yet somehow those positive moves still aren't translating onto the ice.

Buffalo’s biggest issue was losing its star center years ago. That set them back big time.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

6 of the bottom 7 being in the West is ridiculous. Thankfully they'll start playing each other a lot and hopefully that means Seattle and Calgary banking a bunch of points against the really trash teams and eventually jumping ahead of the Habs. A 2-5 or 1-6 disastrous road trip coming up would do wonders for our positioning.

Double edged sword.

We’re only where we are because of goaltending. That has artificially made us a lot better in the standings than we should be.

Good news though is that Montie looks like a genuine starter so maybe we’ve solved the goalie question going forward.

 

[JRichard]

Buffalo’s biggest issue was losing its star center years ago. That set them back big time.

And even today they have many injuries to important guys. 4 on IR including 2 top 10 fwds from last year, best scorer Thompson missed 9 games, goalie out. Not only in Mtl…

 

[rahad]

we were sitting 10th this time last year by points,

NHL Scores for December 11, 2022 | Hockey-Reference.com

NHL hockey scoreboard for December 11, 2022 and historical box scores on Hockey-Reference.com.

www.hockey-reference.com

with over 50 games left it's hard to say where things will end up since so many teams just don't seem to be very good this year so going to need some luck for sure.

Last year multiple teams tanked on purpose for Bedard. I don't think teams will tank hard for Celebrini.

We also had record breaking injury season with Caufield, Dach and Monahan . If Caufield, Ghule and Monahan stay healthy, we would have very hard time finishing in the bottom 5.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Last year multiple teams tanked on purpose for Bedard. I don't think teams will tank hard for Celebrini.

We also had record breaking injury season with Caufield, Dach and Monahan . If Caufield, Ghule and Monahan stay healthy, we would have very hard time finishing in the bottom 5.

By the standards of our play we should be a bottom five club. Goaltending has us above where we should be.

 

[Miller Time]

By the standards of our play we should be a bottom five club. Goaltending has us above where we should be.

And the disappointing production of Anderson and CC & the significant injuries to key forwards has us below where we should be.

net result... We're right around where we actually should be.

we were not a bottom 5 roster heading into the season as so many expected. It would've/will take a lot of things going terrible & nothing going right for that to happen.

With a very fortuitous season (or 2nd 1/2), we're fighting for a wild card spot late in the year.

with more of the same, we'll keep sitting in that 8-12 range, probably ending closer to 8 on account of veteran playoff teams improving their play in the stretch run and/or us selling on a few assets for futures.

 

[An0n]

And the disappointing production of Anderson and CC & the significant injuries to key forwards has us below where we should be.

net result... We're right around where we actually should be.

The offensive production of the Dmen (2nd in the league IIRC) offset the poor forwards' production.

So with the goalies, we're still above where they should be, IMO.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

And the disappointing production of Anderson and CC & the significant injuries to key forwards has us below where we should be.

net result... We're right around where we actually should be.

Not really. We’ve played a lot worse than our record indicates.

It’s absolutely true that as a team we should be scoring more. But the unexpectedly good goals against far outweighs that.

we were not a bottom 5 roster heading into the season as so many expected. It would've/will take a lot of things going terrible & nothing going right for that to happen.

With a very fortuitous season (or 2nd 1/2), we're fighting for a wild card spot late in the year.

with more of the same, we'll keep sitting in that 8-12 range, probably ending closer to 8 on account of veteran playoff teams improving their play in the stretch run and/or us selling on a few assets for futures.

Our analytics are that of a bottom five team. We SHOULD be a bottom five club based on our play. And I don’t think anyone should be surprised by that.

 

[Miller Time]

Not really. We’ve played a lot worse than our record indicates.

It’s absolutely true that as a team we should be scoring more. But the unexpectedly good goals against far outweighs that.

Our analytics are that of a bottom five team. We SHOULD be a bottom five club based on our play. And I don’t think anyone should be surprised by that.

Sure, I get that Moneyball take...

I just don't at all agree with its relevance.

Ignoring the roster context, or, worse, cherry picking positives & ignoring negatives in assessing the team is... A poor assessment

We "should've been" a bottom 5 team with a healthy Dach, Newhook, Savard, RHP... And a CC not performing poorly & an Anderson having a career worst year.

Monty is playing at the level many expected, Allen has lost 7 straight. It's a silly narrative that goaltending is the "only" reason we are where we are... It ignores all the other relevant factors contributing to both the analytics & the win/loss outcomes.

We are what we are.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Sure, I get that Moneyball take...

Hockey analytics are pretty simple. Is the play mostly in your end or the other team’s?

We’ve been outplayed all year man. You shouldn’t need Moneyball to see this.

I just don't at all agree with its relevance.

Ignoring the roster context, or, worse, cherry picking positives & ignoring negatives in assessing the team is... A poor assessment

Roster context? I mean we’d play better if Dach were here but he’s not. Our team play is what it is. I expected us to be bottom ten with Dach. Instead we’ve played like a bottom five team without him.

It’s to be expected with a club this young. And honestly it’s part of the plan.

Zero wrong with us finishing low this year. Hopefully it happens. Cause we’re not making the playoffs anyway. Our young players are developing, some by leaps and bounds. It’s all good.

This is what rebuilding looks like.

 

[Miller Time]

Hockey analytics are pretty simple. Is the play mostly in your end or the other team’s?

We’ve been outplayed all year man. You shouldn’t need Moneyball to see this.

Roster context? I mean we’d play better if Dach were here but he’s not. Our team play is what it is. I expected us to be bottom ten with Dach. Instead we’ve played like a bottom five team without him.

It’s to be expected with a club this young. And honestly it’s part of the plan.

Disagree on both accounts.

You're expectations at the start of the year we're different than mine. So far, mine are playing out more accurately... Happens . We'll see if it holds.

But it's quite obvious you are tilting your current assessment to fit the expectations you had, that's where the assessment falls flat.

 

[rochab]

My frustration is the number of players who are bad now and have untradable contracts or they will be bad by the time we are contending.

You want to be depressed look at the Canadiens page on Cap Friendly...

I know there's nothing Hughes can do about Anderson, Gallagher, or Armia but hopefully we can find trade partners for Allen, Pearson, Monahan, Savard and Dvorak. Hughes seems to not make any trades unless we get really good "value" for the player, but I don't think he takes into account of the effect of having a team of players that are young, improving, and growing together, with lots of available ice time. It's just so hard to watch this team win or lose... It's just such a fractured lineup.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Disagree on both accounts.

You're expectations at the start of the year we're different than mine. So far, mine are playing out more accurately... Happens . We'll see if it holds.

But it's quite obvious you are tilting your current assessment to fit the expectations you had, that's where the assessment falls flat.

I was clear in my expectations. Bottom ten. When Dach went down I revised to bottom five. That’s about where we’re playing at. In line with expectations.

Good news (and bad) is that goaltending has been terrific. The loser points and OT wins have bumped us up- not good. But I think Montie is proving himself to be a legit starter and that’s great.

 

[WeThreeKings]

My frustration is the number of players who are bad now and have untradable contracts or they will be bad by the time we are contending.

You want to be depressed look at the Canadiens page on Cap Friendly...

I know there's nothing Hughes can do about Anderson, Gallagher, or Armia but hopefully we can find trade partners for Allen, Pearson, Monahan, Savard and Dvorak. Hughes seems to not make any trades unless we get really good "value" for the player, but I don't think he takes into account of the effect of having a team of players that are young, improving, and growing together, with lots of available ice time. It's just so hard to watch this team win or lose... It's just such a fractured lineup.

I can't think of one player outside of Ylonen, who isn't playing in their right spot right now who is young and part of the future.

If we removed all of the guys above, you'd be stuck with putting guys like Roy in the NHL before they are ready. We don't want to repeat past mistakes.

 

[Rapala]

It's kind of silly that the Jacket have played 8 more games then the Sens,

It's actually unfair and if there is a competition bureau as part of the NHLPA they should be protesting vehemently. I find it disgusting.

 

[rochab]

I can't think of one player outside of Ylonen, who isn't playing in their right spot right now who is young and part of the future.

If we removed all of the guys above, you'd be stuck with putting guys like Roy in the NHL before they are ready. We don't want to repeat past mistakes.

No we don't have to call up Roy... We could call up Heinamen and Simoneau and these players I listed can be traded for other young fringe NHL players. We would also clear up cap space so that we can have alot more roster flexibility next year.

 

[WeThreeKings]

No we don't have to call up Roy... We could call up Heinamen and Simoneau and these players I listed can be traded for other young fringe NHL players. We would also clear up cap space so that we can have alot more roster flexibility next year.

Heineman's been injured for large swathes of the season and Simoneau hasn't deserved a call-up this year.

 

[Rapala]

Last year multiple teams tanked on purpose for Bedard. I don't think teams will tank hard for Celebrini.

We also had record breaking injury season with Caufield, Dach and Monahan . If Caufield, Ghule and Monahan stay healthy, we would have very hard time finishing in the bottom 5.

I dunno man. With the lottery structure the way it is I see more teams emulating the Detroit Buffalo Washington model from last season. Maybe not purposely tanking but not taking on costly rentals. The aging teams like Pittsburgh and Washington should actually be selling because they don't have a hope in hell.

 

[JRichard]

Heineman's been injured for large swathes of the season and Simoneau hasn't deserved a call-up this year.

Emil is back since Dec.1st. No way Pezzetta should play over him. Or Armia.