HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[ReHabs]

Perhaps you missed the general concencus that the Habs were icing a bottom 5 roster this season?

Sitting in 5th overall 1/10 of the season in despite already major injuries to top 6 & top 4 players on a roster thin on today talent is pretty impressive... However said wins are achieved.

Weird to complain about that

Do you read the comments to which you reply?

Habs are getting outshot and outplayed and need goaltending heroics to steal points. It's not a sign of a good team. If you oppose tanking this season you can simply ignore this discussion thread.

 

[Fuonki]

Looks like we're in for a repeat of last year. Outchanced in every game we've played except the one against CBJ (which was essentially a tie at 5.3xG to 5.4 xG), yet still we're left with a 5-2-1 record thanks to gimmick OT/SO wins and some great goaltending. I'd be really happy if we would actually be outplaying teams with this young core, but right now we're just scraping wins with a veteran goalie.

Hopefully the losses start piling sooner rather than later 'cause we really could do with a Celebrini/Eiserman/Demidov/Catton in our prospect pool

 

[Twisted Sinister]

Do you read the comments to which you reply?

Habs are getting outshot and outplayed and need goaltending heroics to steal points. It's not a sign of a good team. If you oppose tanking this season you can simply ignore this discussion thread.

Welcome to the dark side.

I assure you that KuLtUre and uselessly comepetent goaltending will drive you up the wall this year as it did with many tankers last year.

Of course, trading Allen would help, but they won't do that in a million years... Because remember... KulTurE.

 

[ReHabs]

Welcome to the dark side.

I assure you that KuLtUre and uselessly comepetent goaltending will drive you up the wall this year as it did with many tankers last year.

Of course, trading Allen would help, but they won't do that in a million years... Because remember... KulTurE.

I'm conflicted about tanking. I really dislike it on a fundamental level because it runs contrary to the spirit of a sport competition and the draft lottery makes it less valuable for 'expected returns'. I also believe some organizations have a bad sporting culture and some have a strong one, but I think that culture aspect is affected more by winning games and expecting to win games and the spiritedness of the players on the roster more than anything.

That said, for a given 'lost' year, tanking makes a lot of sense. Particularly with the TETRIS some teams have to play with cap-hits and cap-efficiencies. I think it's not just reasonable but expected to "sell" pending UFAs for instance. So once again, the Habs didn't add a balance of roster improvements and basically damned the season from the onset*. If that is to be the case (it 100% is the case) then the Habs shouldn't be winning games they have to steal to win, and Jake Allen shouldn't be the goalies stealing games in the first place.

We're the only NHL team in the top5 of the standings with a negative Goal Differential.

Once again they are half-assing a tank season instead of whole-assing it.

Jake Allen cannot be traded, he has a bad contract courtesy of Kent Hughes.

*The addition of Newhook (0.5ppg currently) to place Drouin and Hoffman's combined contribution is not a roster improvement. Other than the growth of our own players and their return from injury, it is reasonable to say the Habs did not seek to improve the roster with established outside talent.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

I'm conflicted about tanking. I really dislike it on a fundamental level because it runs contrary to the spirit of a sport competition and the draft lottery makes it less valuable for 'expected returns'. I also believe some organizations have a bad sporting culture and some have a strong one, but I think that culture aspect is affected more by winning games and expecting to win games and the spiritedness of the players on the roster more than anything.

That said, for a given 'lost' year, tanking makes a lot of sense. Particularly with the TETRIS some teams have to play with cap-hits and cap-efficiencies. I think it's not just reasonable but expected to "sell" pending UFAs for instance. So once again, the Habs didn't add a balance of roster improvements and basically damned the season from the onset*. If that is to be the case (it 100% is the case) then the Habs shouldn't be winning games they have to steal to win, and Jake Allen shouldn't be the goalies stealing games in the first place.

We're the only NHL team in the top5 of the standings with a negative Goal Differential.

Once again they are half-assing a tank season instead of whole-assing it.

Jake Allen cannot be traded, he has a bad contract courtesy of Kent Hughes.

*The addition of Newhook (0.5ppg currently) to place Drouin and Hoffman's combined contribution is not a roster improvement. Other than the growth of our own players and their return from injury, it is reasonable to say the Habs did not seek to improve the roster with established outside talent.

Yep. That's what made me stop caring about the team this year in addition to their loser drafting decisions.

 

[Andy]

Habs are having trouble tanking because they have the good player syndrome: even when you’re having a bad game, stars and good players just need one chance to score or to set up a scoring chance.

Suzuki, Caufield, Monahan are keeping the habs in games they ain’t playing well and are even getting the team the wins with their talent.

Guhle last night also showed what good players do.

If Dach was still here, tankers would be even more frustrated. It seems the habs have a certain baseline talent level that is too high to tank and too low to be a playoff team.

 

[River Meadow]

Habs are having trouble tanking because they have the good player syndrome: even when you’re having a bad game, starts and good players just need one chance to score or to set up a scoring chance .

Suzuki, Caufield, Monahan are keeping the habs in games they ain’t playing well and are even getting the team the wins.

Guhle last night also showed what good players do.

If Dach was still here, tankers would be even more frustrated. It seems the habs have a certain baseline talent level that is too high to tank and too low to be a playoff team.

If Dach was still here, I would be excited..

What's the point of making the playoffs without Dach now?

It's really not appealing to make the playoffs now, just to get almost surely bounced in round 1, and then lose out on lottery/high pick.

 

[Andy]

If Dach was still here, I would be excited..

What's the point of making the playoffs without Dach now?

It's really not appealing to make the playoffs now, just to get almost surely bounced in round 1, and then lose out on lottery/high pick.

I don’t think they will make the playoffs. I just think the habs have some quality players that lift them out of the lottery position. We’ll see how the season plays out since the depth is still razor thin and an injury to any of these players can change things.

 

[ReHabs]

If Dach was still here, I would be excited..

What's the point of making the playoffs without Dach now?

It's really not appealing to make the playoffs now, just to get almost surely bounced in round 1, and then lose out on lottery/high pick.

We need to see some trendlines to know if this is really a lost season for us... Things to look at:

Guhle's growth into a top-pairing dman
Newhook's 'normal' level -- is he a 0.5ppg player like Drouin or does he have more?
Josh Roy will surely feature in the NHL this season
Justin Barron -- will he establish himself as an NHLer?
Slafkovsky -- will he look good at any point this season?
Monty -- is worth considering as a core player?
Suzuki -- what's his limit?
Caufield's pursuit of goals
Xhekaj -- is he capable of being a solid top4 dman?

If many of the above reveal themselves to be inconclusive or the player shows insufficient growth, then surely it is a lost and wasted season under Kent Hughes' stewardship. It's a long season, there are many twists and turns ahead of us so let's hope for the best.

I want to see some SALES myself. Stock up on some forward prospects.

 

[Jaynki]

The tank is not going well!

Sincerely, unless we are talking Celebrini, so an extreme luck. 18% at best if we finish last.

I am totally in to see this core take another step forward. It is way more important than a top pick at this point, especially since its so far from a guarantee of a star forward. (The harsh reality of real life NHL tanking.)

Caufield emerging as a superstar. Guhle Matheson solidifying their status as real top pairing, minute munching dman. Barron emerging as another strong young, top 4 D. Hutson and Reinbacher coming soon.

Even with Dach injuries and Slaf underproduction we have a lot of reasons to be optimistic.

 

[DAChampion]

Do you read the comments to which you reply?

Habs are getting outshot and outplayed and need goaltending heroics to steal points. It's not a sign of a good team. If you oppose tanking this season you can simply ignore this discussion thread.

They're fluke wins, losses will come.

 

[Gustave]

The tank is not going well!

Sincerely, unless we are talking Celebrini, so an extreme luck. 18% at best if we finish last.

I am totally in to see this core take another step forward. It is way more important than a top pick at this point, especially since its so far from a guarantee of a star forward. (The harsh reality of real life NHL tanking.)

Caufield emerging as a superstar. Guhle Matheson solidifying their status as real top pairing, minute munching dman. Barron emerging as another strong young, top 4 D. Hutson and Reinbacher coming soon.

Even with Dach injuries and Slaf underproduction we have a lot of reasons to be optimistic.

For context, 18% is not the effective percentage of picking the 1st OV, it reflects the odds of winning the loto, because teams 11 to 17 (?) can't pick first even if they "win" the loto. That adds to the real percentage of getting the first OV. It's 25.5.

 

[HuGo Sham]

If Dach was still here, I would be excited..

What's the point of making the playoffs without Dach now?

It's really not appealing to make the playoffs now, just to get almost surely bounced in round 1, and then lose out on lottery/high pick.

If Habs play into May, he might be able to

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

They're fluke wins, losses will come.

Is that a brownie or a piece of hash? Or something crude?

 

[Jaynki]

For context, 18% is not the effective percentage of picking the 1st OV, it reflects the odds of winning the loto, because teams 11 to 17 (?) can't pick first even if they "win" the loto. That adds to the real percentage of getting the first OV. It's 25.5.

Thank you for the clarification. Even finishing last it requires a good amount of luck.

 

[WeThreeKings]

It's not sustainable, we were above .500 when Monahan went down and finished bottom 5.

Just chill boys.

 

[Habitant#1]

These are the easy games of the season. Habs will show their true tanking colours as the games get tighter. Goaltending will regress. Injuries will mount.

In the words of Bane:
“Ahh yes, I was wondering what would break first: your spirit or your body?”

 

[Jaynki]

Do you read the comments to which you reply?

Habs are getting outshot and outplayed and need goaltending heroics to steal points. It's not a sign of a good team. If you oppose tanking this season you can simply ignore this discussion thread.

They are not getting outchanced tho. I dont know if its part of St Louis systems(or concepts.). We generate a lot of high quality chances off the rushes and of all the shots we receive, many are low quality and from the outside. It explain our strong 5v5 play.

 

[morhilane]

They are not getting outchanced tho. I dont know if its part of St Louis systems(or concepts.). We generate a lot of high quality chances off the rushes and of all the shots we receive, many are low quality and from the outside. It explain our strong 5v5 play.

The high low chances reminds me of the Therrien era. Great for goalie stats padding.

 

[Jaynki]

It's not sustainable, we were above .500 when Monahan went down and finished bottom 5.

Just chill boys.

On one hand i agree, i don't think we finish top 5. But on the other hand, i think our defensive is greatly underrated. Matheson and Guhle are playing at 1D level and Barron is emerging a strong top 3RD. If they keep the pace, we won't finish bottom 5, they are simply too good and impactful.

We are starving for offense but Suzuki, Caufield, Monahan if they stay healthy will still bring a good amount of production.

Personally, i prefer to see this core take a step forward and than picking high again. Caufield, Suzuki and Guhle were all 13-15-16OV pick and they consitute the core of the core.

 

[Gustave]

Thank you for the clarification. Even finishing last it requires a good amount of luck.

Damn right!

 

[DAChampion]

Is that a brownie or a piece of hash? Or something crude?

I think it's a slice of torta caprese. It's a placeholder avatar.

Eller winning the Cup is old news.

 

[Jaynki]

The high low chances reminds me of the Therrien era. Great for goalie stats padding.

On the other hand, offensively its the total opposite.

 

[WeThreeKings]

On one hand i agree, i don't think we finish top 5. But on the other hand, i think our defensive is greatly underrated. Matheson and Guhle are playing at 1D level and Barron is emerging a strong top 3RD. If they keep the pace, we won't finish bottom 5, they are simply too good and impactful.

We are starving for offense but Suzuki, Caufield, Monahan if they stay healthy will still bring a good amount of production.

Personally, i prefer to see this core take a step forward and than picking high again. Caufield, Suzuki and Guhle were all 13-15-16OV pick and they consitute the core of the core.

Yeah I don't think we will be as bad as last year. But we should still pick in the back end of the top 10 with some lotto odds.

My best case scenario without lotto is us being in range to get one of Catton or Demidov. Worst case scenario we should be looking at MBN, Lindstrom or Helenius.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Habs aren't very good, The wins are good for morale, which they'll need because it should be a long winter. I'm still seeing a last place team - last in the Atlantic - probably finish bottom 4.