HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[WeThreeKings]

Buffalo will drop below us after trading what's left of their leadership so I'm predicting 8th pick

Pretty hard to make up 7 pts in 20 games.

 

[habsfan891]

Pretty hard to make up 7 pts in 20 games.

Not when you lose 15 of them isn't lol

 

[WeThreeKings]

Not when you lose 15 of then it isn't lol

We are only projected to pick up 12 more points.

 

[habsfan891]

We are only projected to pick up 12 more points.

I hope your right

 

[Riggins]

Expected loss vs. Carolina happened. Remain on track for a 70 pt season. We should expect a loss on Saturday against Toronto, especially since they'll roster all their additions and look to prove a point after losing twice to Boston.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Opponents[/TD]
[TD]Expected Result[/TD]
[TD]Actual Result[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NSH; CAR; TOR[/TD]
[TD]W; L; L[/TD]
[TD]W; L;[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CBJ; BOS; CGY[/TD]
[TD]W; L; OTL[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]EDM; VAN[/TD]
[TD]L; L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SEA; COL; PHI; CAR[/TD]
[TD]OTL; L; OTL; L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FLA; TB; TOR[/TD]
[TD]L; OTL; L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYR; PHI; NYI; OTT[/TD]
[TD]L; OTL; OTL; W[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DET; DET[/TD]
[TD]W; L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Expected Points[/TD]
[TD]Actual Points[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]2 pts[/TD]
[TD]2 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

That's expecting a 14 game stretch of 0-8-6 where we go to OT 6 times and lose them all. You know the Habs way better than that!

The model at the Athletic has it projected like this in our range:

4. CBJ 71
5. ARI 73
6. MTL 74
7. OTT 76
8. BUF 81

 

[WeThreeKings]

That's expecting a 14 game stretch of 0-8-6 where we go to OT 6 times and lose them all. You know the Habs way better than that!

The model at the Athletic has it projected like this in our range:

4. CBJ 71
5. ARI 73
6. MTL 74
7. OTT 76
8. BUF 81

Yeah, I do expect some of those OTLs to turn into Ws, etc.

I mentioned in the initial post of the table that we can expect more than the low projected total but the few extra points we do pick up aren't likely to materially impact our standing.

 

[HabsMD97]

In the past 19 games, the habs are 5w-11L-3OTL for a .342 pts%. In that span they played 5 games against top 11 teams, 5 games against mid 11 teams and 9 games against bottom 10 teams.

They have 19 games left this season : 9 games vs top 11 teams, 6 games against the mid 11 teams and 4 games against the bottom 10.

With the increased difficulty of teams and taking into account the past 19 games (same num of games as the amount remaining) I think the BEST record we can expect is 4-12-3 which is a .289 pts%.

For comparisons sake, the had a .295 pts % during March-April of last year.

This would put them at 69 pts on the season (nice) which is just below their expected record heading into the season.

 

[Maitz]

I think we win 8 games and have 3 OTL until the end of the season, they will have unexpected wins

 

[overlords]

don't forget that the good teams start resting their good players and playing their garbo goalies against us towards the end

 

[HabsMD97]

don't forget that the good teams start resting their good players and playing their garbo goalies against us towards the end

that only happens the last 2-3 games of the season and the beauty is that we play Detroit back to back at the end of the season who are fighting for their playoff lives so they will 100% try their best in those games.

 

[sandviper]

Should close this week out with a loss to Toronto and keep us on schedule.

Toronto… wouldn’t surprise me if we beat those losers.

 

[Sorinth]

that only happens the last 2-3 games of the season and the beauty is that we play Detroit back to back at the end of the season who are fighting for their playoff lives so they will 100% try their best in those games.

True but before then teams do get caught looking past the bad teams and not taking them as serious as they need to. Often because they're much better they can then fight their way back late in the game but good teams lose to bad teams all the time for a variety of reasons.

 

[HabsMD97]

True but before then teams do get caught looking past the bad teams and not taking them as serious as they need to. Often because they're much better they can then fight their way back late in the game but good teams lose to bad teams all the time for a variety of reasons.

yeah but that's been their reality the entire season and last season as well. As posted above, they had a .295 pts% during the last 2 months of last year.

 

[Sorinth]

yeah but that's been their reality the entire season and last season as well. As posted above, they had a .295 pts% during the last 2 months of last year.

Last year the Habs also had an awful December/January and this year they didn't. I wouldn't rely too much on what they did last year, and although who we faces does obviously have an impact, it's not as clear cut as we will lose against the good teams and only collect points against the bad/mid level teams, in our last 4 games all against playoff teams we went .500. We will no doubt lose more games then we win to finish the season but there will be games we get points in that we wouldn't predict based on the schedule. And you're basically double or even triple counting the strength of schedule metric since last year our strength of schedule was also considered very tough.

 

[slybel]

I just want the kid to get 85 points...

Its getting really sad... after the 94 cup... only 3 good SC run....

 

[Goldenhands]

With Savard still on the team, only Allen moved, Im expecting the Habs to end up 6-8 worst, my money is on Helenius at that spot.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Coyotes host the Red Wings tonight. I expect another loss.

 

[Sorinth]

Yeah, I do expect some of those OTLs to turn into Ws, etc.

I mentioned in the initial post of the table that we can expect more than the low projected total but the few extra points we do pick up aren't likely to materially impact our standing.

You've been right so far with your predictions so maybe I shouldn't question the model, but generally just putting the odds of a win/loss/OTL, multiplying by 2 for points, and adding them all together would produce a better result. So for example 0.75 for a game tagged as a W, 0.5 for an OTL, and 0.25 for a L would probably be better, and if you expect some of those OTL to actually be wins then maybe even 0.6 instead of 0.5.

 

[Habsfan2992]

Drafting 1st-3rd isn't a guarantee of getting a game breaker and there are great players taken 7th-9th too. Berniers vs. Clarke, Lafreniere vs. Quinn, Dach vs. Zegras, Kotkaniemi vs. Hughes, Patrick vs. Mittelstadt.

If you don't trust the scouting staff now then where the team finishes is irrelevant. And you should frankly be less in favour of a tear down rebuild that would necessitate moving guys like Suzuki than what Montreal is doing right now.

The 1st part is very correct. Look at a lot of us Habs who wanted Shane Wright to be picked 1st over all for us. If we did that most people would be throwing KH under the bus for not picking Slaf. So yeah there is never a guarantee.

 

[HabsMD97]

Last year the Habs also had an awful December/January and this year they didn't. I wouldn't rely too much on what they did last year, and although who we faces does obviously have an impact, it's not as clear cut as we will lose against the good teams and only collect points against the bad/mid level teams, in our last 4 games all against playoff teams we went .500. We will no doubt lose more games then we win to finish the season but there will be games we get points in that we wouldn't predict based on the schedule. And you're basically double or even triple counting the strength of schedule metric since last year our strength of schedule was also considered very tough.

After 63 games this year the habs have 58 pts, last year they had...56. This year they have 3 LESS wins in regulation than last year and 2 LESS wins overall. The only difference this year is we are losing more overtime games. We went .500 against playoff teams yet we're in the same position as last year. Seasons have ebbs and flows, but everything evens out to the true talent level over a full season. The habs suck and will continue sucking this season, 4 games doesn't change that. True talent wise they are a 68-70 point team and that is where they will end up. For every win against the bruins and avs of the world you will lose to the sens and sabres of the world, except losses to the worst in the league will be much more frequent than wins against the best. It will all even out to 68-70pts.

 

[Sorinth]

After 63 games this year the habs have 58 pts, last year they had...56. This year they have 3 LESS wins in regulation than last year and 2 LESS wins overall. The only difference this year is we are losing more overtime games. We went .500 against playoff teams yet we're in the same position as last year. Seasons have ebbs and flows, but everything evens out to the true talent level over a full season. The habs suck and will continue sucking this season, 4 games doesn't change that. True talent wise they are a 68-70 point team and that is where they will end up. For every win against the bruins and avs of the world you will lose to the sens and sabres of the world, except losses to the worst in the league will be much more frequent than wins against the best. It will all even out to 68-70pts.

4 games don't mean much but your telling us we should ignore the past 60+ games.

I mean seriously you claim our true talent is 68-70 points and the proof is the 58 points in 63 games which actually put us at just over 75 points? Like come on.

 

[Gustave]

Can OTT and CLB really pass us? Those 4 points seem insurmountable with the way we keep collecting OT points.

 

[Sookind]

Arizona up 3-0 against Detroit but it's Arizona will wait til the end

 

[HabsCowboysOwn]

Arizona up 3-0 against Detroit but it's Arizona will wait til the end

Habs fans: Wow the shitty Yotes are winning 3-0, that's huge for the tank!

The shitty Yotes after blowing their lead and losing that game 6-3:

 

[montreal]

I badly want us to finish in front of the Yotes as I worry they would pick Demidov as we'll see what happens to Silayev's stock after that hit on his knee.