HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[Belial]

Build a flux capacitor, travel back in time, and draft Michkov.

So your whole beef is that they didn't draft Michkov? You don't even know how that kid will develop for god sake...

 

[ReHabs]

Build a flux capacitor, travel back in time, and draft Michkov.

I don't think it has anything to do with Michkov in particular or specifically. It has more to do with the Habs organization's approach to high-end talent in general. A philosophy thing.

Drafting three goalies last draft and Florian 'can't score in the OHL' Xekhaj instead of literally anybody else with a pulse tells me they're very passive in this pursuit of skilled forwards while us long-suffering Habs know that the acquisition of skilled forwards should be priority number 1, 2, and 3. I would've found a way to acquire more first round picks to pick high-upside forwards... The likes of Josh Anderson could've been jettisoned if it got us a 2023 first round pick, imo.

I'll have it re-stated for the record: I was big on the Michkov wagon right up until the Habs announced their pick. I didn't like Michkov the player as much as Michkov the player who fit a certain player profile that I valued (ie forward with elite upside). The Habs would know better than any of us if Michkov, Benson, etc. was a worthy candidate at 5OA and how they matched-up against Reinbacher -- I cannot comment on that nor do I care. Until Michkov (or whoemver else) shows what they got in the NHL, they're now irrelevant. Like Wright, Cooley, etc. from the previous draft are irrelevant.

I really don't think we should be caught up on the player Michkov.

 

[StCaufield]

But we didn't. Because the ridiculously covid fluky circumstances/horseshoe up the ass that got us to the final finally ran out when we ran into an actual elite team. Maybe if we'd face NO elite teams that year, we would have won something.



This is something Habs fans always do. We extrapolate success when there isn't any based on small sample sizes. Brian Savage was never a 50 goal scorer. Similarly, Suzuki isn't a PPG player until he is, and Caufield isn't a 50-goal scorer until he is.

Caufield is the closest thing we have to s star talent, but he doesn't hold a candle to the Kanes, Crosbies, Hedmans, or Ovies of this world. He's too one-dimensional. We do have guys that can be somewhat talented in a vacuum. The problem is when you compare them to what other teams have. There is nothing in our system that makes our core more talented than... Arizona's for example. Or the murderer's row of the Atlantic. What sets us apart? The 6'2" safe defenseman we just drafted?



Thems a lot of pretty words, but the idea that "Most teams don’t even have to tank to win" isn't supported by data. Sadly, while everyone's allowed to have an opinion, opinions can be wrong. The data shows that teams that have rebuilt with talent are more likely to win cups and have long strings of success than complete randos.

As for our prospects, my opinion is that they're mid AF. Lots of potential NHLers. Zero elite talent. Canadiens fans live in a bubble where we constantly overvalue everything and expect things to go our way. We never seem to learn the lesson that our garbage isn't as awesome as we think it is.

You’re literally out here quoting everyone looking for arguments. It’s a fact that you can build a winning team while tanking or not tanking. This team needs to grow. Not blow everything up every year. We don’t even know how good Montreal is because they’re team hospital. How about wait and see before you think the sky is falling. If Monty keeps improving and we develop well then this team is trending upwards. What would you do? Trade our best players to tank? What more can they do to tank? Seriously. Bye bye Suzi? Canfield? Why not relocate lol

 

[DAChampion]

You keep coming again and again with this not enough talent thing but what should Hughes do right now in your opinion?

Hughes needs to build Rome in a day.

 

[WeThreeKings]

So your whole beef is that they didn't draft Michkov? You don't even know how that kid will develop for god sake...

You haven't noticed this yet?

There's a reason why my ignore list has made this board a more pleasant experience.

Just find the guys who equate everything to passing on Michkov, put them on IL and you can have actual discussions with people.

 

[DAChampion]

I don't think it has anything to do with Michkov in particular or specifically. It has more to do with the Habs organization's approach to high-end talent in general. A philosophy thing.

Drafting three goalies last draft and Florian 'can't score in the OHL' Xekhaj instead of literally anybody else with a pulse

There's nothing wrong with drafting goalies.

And Xhekaj was picked in the 4th round. There may well be 32 busts available in that round. They may also have picked him in the hope that he has a growth spurt, or something.

 

[ReHabs]

There's nothing wrong with drafting goalies.

And Xhekaj was picked in the 4th round. There may well be 32 busts available in that round. They may also have picked him in the hope that he has a growth spurt, or something.

Well, I can sympathize with the many people who feel last draft was a mess. Of course time will tell but if you take into account Bobrov’s less than impressive track record, you have no reason to give them or the Habs organization the benefit of the doubt.

You’re welcome to be optimistic but there is no way anyone can say F. Xhekaj was one of the best 200 prospects and prospective draftees in hockey. In itself it’s not a big deal, 4th round picks are irrelevant. But imo it would be a lot more comforting to see our team try to address major issues with orthodox approaches rather than constantly kick the can down the road or do unorthodox things that haven’t shown to be effective — such as drafting overage players and three goalies in the same draft.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

So your whole beef is that they didn't draft Michkov? You don't even know how that kid will develop for god sake...

The Michkov thing is not just about the player. It's about the philosophy and the allergy to talent in general. You specifically asked me about how they could have added talent to the team, so I replied.

Not tanking well (the purpose of this thread) is another issue I have with them.

You’re literally out here quoting everyone looking for arguments. It’s a fact that you can build a winning team while tanking or not tanking. This team needs to grow. Not blow everything up every year. We don’t even know how good Montreal is because they’re team hospital. How about wait and see before you think the sky is falling. If Monty keeps improving and we develop well then this team is trending upwards. What would you do? Trade our best players to tank? What more can they do to tank? Seriously. Bye bye Suzi? Canfield? Why not relocate lol

Well, let's see... Last year, they could have played Primeau a few games to start. They could have traded Allen for an asset and played Primeau half the year instead of resigning him to a ridiculous contract. They could have traded Anderson for a first if that was actually available as they say. They could have traded Edmundson earlier if a bloody 3rd was all they were going to get for him.

None of these would have qualified as blowing up the team, but they were obsessed with the nebulous component of "winning culture" rather than the very real component of "drafting talent."

Not sure what you mean about me quoting everyone. I reply to people that reply to me.

You haven't noticed this yet?

There's a reason why my ignore list has made this board a more pleasant experience.

Just find the guys who equate everything to passing on Michkov, put them on IL and you can have actual discussions with people.

It's a little cowardly to take potshots at me through a third party when you have me blocked. Your argument is a strawman. Being unable to acquire talented players for literal decades through a continuous comedy of errors and incompetence is my problem. The philosophy behind our current management that deprived us of a new talented player was just the straw that broke the camel's back. I'm a paying customer. I'm allowed to dislike the product that's being presented to me. They seem to have an allergy to high-end talent and I'm tired of it. KuLtuRe is just the new face of KaRakTer. That's all.

If you have a problem with that, you can ignore me all you want, but take your indirect, passive-aggressive potshots elsewhere.

 

[StCaufield]

The Michkov thing is not just about the player. It's about the philosophy and the allergy to talent in general. You specifically asked me about how they could have added talent to the team, so I replied.

Not tanking well (the purpose of this thread) is another issue I have with them.



Well, let's see... Last year, they could have played Primeau a few games to start. They could have traded Allen for an asset and played him half the year instead of resigning him. They could have traded Anderson for a first if that was actually available as they say.

None of these would have qualified as blowing up the team, but they were obsessed with the nebulous component of "winning culture" rather than the very real component of "drafting talent."

Not sure what you mean about me quoting everyone. I reply to people that reply to me.




It's a little cowardly to take potshots at me through a third party when you have me blocked. Your argument is a strawman. Being unable to acquire talented players for literal decades through a continuous comedy of errors and incompetence is my problem. The philosophy behind our current management that deprived us of a new talented player was just the straw that broke the camel's back. I'm a paying customer. I'm allowed to dislike the product that's being presented to me. They seem to have an allergy to high-end talent and I'm tired of it. KuLtuRe is just the new face of KaRakTer. That's all.

If you have a problem with that, you can ignore me all you want, but take your indirect, passive-aggressive potshots elsewhere.

They’ve been injured constantly. Stop rushing to judgments and see what we have here. I’m not expecting a cup by any means but tell me what you’d do. Trade everyone?

 

[Naslundforever]

This old timer rock band feud of disco-metal nicks needs some novelty.

Unrelated, but are there any un-drafted embryos triggering anyone yet?

 

[Twisted Sinister]

They’ve been injured constantly. Stop rushing to judgments and see what we have here. I’m not expecting a cup by any means but tell me what you’d do. Trade everyone?

TBH, this year, I don't really care. I cared last year. This year, fans can get all the perpetual bubble team dopamine wins they want.

 

[JoelWarlord]

We're off topic now but I don't really think it's true that the FO that traded a fan favourite DFD for Dach, Passed on a hockey Canada golden boy two way C to draft a big high ceiling winger, and gave 60 million dollars to Caufield are allergic to skill.

More on topic, I think we're pretty likely to end up picking in the 4-7 range again, just don't really see us taking the jump up to the ~80-85pt tier of teams in the 20-25th place range. We're in a good spot IMO where any unexpectedly good season would be the product of our young players unless Monahan magically stays perfectly healthy all year and becomes our best forward by far.

 

[Naslundforever]

TBH, this year, I don't really care. I cared last year. This year, fans can get all the perpetual bubble team dopamine wins they want.

Tanking and bubble teams are far from the only scenarios.

I’m done watching in the hopes bad washed up vets take out each other’s knee and lose at bad, boring hockey.

I am 100% hoping to see rookies get their ass handed to them all year because they have no nhl xp. THAT I find entertaining and hopeful, and worth following as a story + an actual ENTERTAINMENT PRODUCT when I watch (whether it be discovering new player skillsets or watching 2vs0 against the habs on bad pinches). I won’t be thinking “yeah ceiling is 5th best in the nhl in 8 years” while hoping Monty saves it.

There would be 0 joy (as in none) in NOT watching hockey for the next 4 years knowing somehow that on the 5th habs will ice an all star team and a sure-win Stanley cup.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

Tanking and bubble teams are far from the only scenarios.

I’m done watching in the hopes bad washed up vets take out each other’s knee and lose at bad, boring hockey.

I am 100% hoping to see rookies get their ass handed to them all year because they have no nhl xp. THAT I find entertaining and hopeful, and worth following as a story + an actual ENTERTAINMENT PRODUCT when I watch (whether it be discovering new player skillsets or watching 2vs0 against the habs on bad pinches). I won’t be thinking “yeah ceiling is 5th best in the nhl in 8 years” while hoping Monty saves it.

There would be 0 joy (as in none) in NOT watching hockey for the next 4 years knowing somehow that on the 5th habs will ice an all star team and a sure-win Stanley cup.

Globally, I'm in favor of a longer rebuild conceptually, which is why I'm arguing for it.

I just don't like the way the team is going (heading straight towards Detroit's mid rebuild), so my interest is diminished,

 

[dcyhabs]

Well, I can sympathize with the many people who feel last draft was a mess. Of course time will tell but if you take into account Bobrov’s less than impressive track record, you have no reason to give them or the Habs organization the benefit of the doubt.

You’re welcome to be optimistic but there is no way anyone can say F. Xhekaj was one of the best 200 prospects and prospective draftees in hockey. In itself it’s not a big deal, 4th round picks are irrelevant. But imo it would be a lot more comforting to see our team try to address major issues with orthodox approaches rather than constantly kick the can down the road or do unorthodox things that haven’t shown to be effective — such as drafting overage players and three goalies in the same draft.

I suspect "orthodox" approaches, that is old ex-hockey player GM traditions, explain why no Canadian team has won a cup since '93. Different teams have different problems but hiring exclusively from the old boys club and sticking to tried and true methods really don't work.

I was in Toronto for a few years when the team was actually reasonably good and they went with a lot of the typical strategies, trading top picks if they had hope of the cup, going with what people in the media were saying, lots of old guys, lots of dumb moves. Dubas may not have won but he vastly improved the team from what it was, and improved the decision making.

A number of recent cup winners have old GMs, but from what little I can see they surround them better. Most American teams don't have to seriously consider dumb takes from ex-players trying to fill time on hours of hockey discussions, either. At least Hughes doesn't seem to care about the chatter, MB listened way too often.

I don't put a lot of value in the publically available draft reports. They are for discussion, not building winning teams. No one really knows how players will do 3-5 years post draft, and many pretty simple algorithms (points corrected by league) do better than most draft lists. Who knows what teams use internally. I expect the public lists have less value out of the top 10, and rapidly decreasing value with every round after that. By the fourth or fifth round teams are looking for the dozen or less players likely to have real value so taking overagers or players they have a connection to (Point was chosen due to personal connections, for example) makes good sense. Trying to maximize incremental value when most picks have no value at all doesn't make sense. The habs have generally gotten good value out of late picks, so I won't criticize their later ones, the issue is their top 5 picks so far.

All to say that I don't think restricting your choices at pick 200 to guys Bob rated 210 or higher really makes any difference. If they know Florian and they think there is something there, fine. If they are accumulating Xhekajs as they accumulated Pitlicks it could be an attempt at keeping players happy or it could just be a silly move.

 

[StCaufield]

TBH, this year, I don't really care. I cared last year. This year, fans can get all the perpetual bubble team dopamine wins they want.

Cope. Go cry about Michkov more as we watch Rein develop into something special. If you don’t care then why are you here?

 

[bsl]

That is one of fave skits ever. Never says a word and just steps out. I’ve wanted to do that in many meetings

 

[bsl]

Man. Ive been wanting for a real rebuild for 30years.

Happy me : 4 first round picks in 2 years….
But no.

After all this pain, we ended with the worst first overall pick since Yakupov. Then we pick a bust with our 2nd first round pick.

The year after? We reach for a 30-40pts defenceman in one of the best draft for offensive players. And we traded our 2nd first rounder for an undersized 3rd line player in Newhook.

Ohhh yeah fefans will say : « Newhook is full of potential. 70pts player incoming » and « Reinbacher is Josi #2 » and « Slafkovsky is Rantanen » and « Mesar is Suzuki lite ». f*** that.

Can we just draft offensive players? We need a PPG forward. Alex Kovalev is the last one. Its been what? 15 years?

Good rant. Enjoyed

 

[rickthegoon]

Not 1 single practice in the books for the upcoming season and already a tank thread with 15 pages?
This is nuts

 

[StCaufield]

Not 1 single practice in the books for the upcoming season and already a tank thread with 15 pages?
This is nuts

Yup it’s pretty pathetic. How do you tank with a bunch of kids. Trade them? Why lol

 

[DAChampion]

Realistically I do think that this thread is premature. I only perceive two plausible road for the Habs to draft top-5 again:

1) A lot of injuries.
2) Gaining spots in the lottery.

But I guess that neither of those should be discounted. They're both plausible outcomes, ones that I wouldn't bet against.

But I expect the team to be about 10th from the bottom. A 10th overall draft pick is the sort of asset that Hughes would be better off packaging in a trade for a young impact forward than using.

 

[JoelWarlord]

I suspect "orthodox" approaches, that is old ex-hockey player GM traditions, explain why no Canadian team has won a cup since '93. Different teams have different problems but hiring exclusively from the old boys club and sticking to tried and true methods really don't work.

It's not a satisfying answer but IMO the no Canadian cup thing is largely just a fluke. Montreal made it in 2021, Vancouver lost in game 7 in 2011, Ottawa lost in 2007, Edmonton in game 7 in 2006, and Calgary in 2004 lost in game 7 in a cup they likely would have won under today's video review system. I'm just skeptical that there's some fatal flaw that's causing all these Canadian teams to be good enough to make it to the finals 5 times in 30 years and have multiple other deep conference finals runs, but then lose five straight finals appearances including three game 7 series losses.

The reason I'm skeptical of these kinds of grand narratives is that most of the guys running the cup winners of the past ~15 or so years have all been traditional hockey old boys club guys too. Ken Holland, Brian Burke, and Peter Chiarelli won cups and they're all punchlines now for being old-school hockey men. Stan Bowman is well...Stan Bowman, Sutter won two cups playing dump and chase grinding hockey, Rutherford is the quintessential hockey lifer and won two cups, two of the consensus best GMs in the league are Yzerman (which I disagree with but it is consensus) and Sakic, etc.

I think some Canadian teams have just made some individually weak hires and got some bad luck in conference/Stanley Cup finals series, and some of these old school hockey men (Burke, Chiarelli, Holland for example) just have a short shelf life in a cap system and were in the right place at the right time to win when they did.

You’re welcome to be optimistic but there is no way anyone can say F. Xhekaj was one of the best 200 prospects and prospective draftees in hockey.

Yeah I'm not really thrilled about the Xhekaj pick. Hopefully I'm wrong but I just don't think there's much upside there, to me the best case scenario is he's Pezzetta 2.0 and Pezzetta 1.0 is only really worth a roster spot exactly because he has no real upside so you don't feel bad about keeping him around for 800k to be good in the room and play 8 minutes a night so you can keep more talented players developing in the AHL.

I would push back on the goalie thing, as I really don't think there's any issue with it. They drafted goalies out of three different feeder systems to spread out the contracts and asset value effectively. Fowler was the last guy remaining in the consensus top tier of goalies and checks every box for the slot he was taken. Miller I can't say too much on but the Habs would benefit from a CHL goalie that they can add to Laval in a couple seasons, and I'm always in favour of taking late gambles on European goalies as you keep their rights so much longer (and you never lose them for Russian Gs), there's value in spreading all those things out so you aren't forced to try and fit 3 goalies in Laval.

 

[Frankenheimer]

What I like about the Hughes approach is the focus on building a core of relatively the same age group who can develop together. This is something that Bergevin didn't seem to care about. I'm curious to see what impact this approach has on the team in the coming years. There is at least a logic behind it.

It's also something that can only be achieved by trading draft picks (as these players would be too young) and trading veterans who will not be present during the core's peak years. So it's not a straight line necessarily. I guess the idea would be to have "two cores" roughly 4-5 years apart. Suzuki/CC are part of the first wave, Slaf/Reinman are part of the second.

 

[Scriptor]

Every successful recent rebuild (~20 years or so) has been mired in tanking or the consequences of tanking. So it's not extreme, it's a pragmatic viewpoint.

It's one extreme end, period, on the spectrum of rebuilding. The other extreme end is selling all youth and futures for one or two season cracks the cup through a veteran-laden team, perhaps servicing a D-first roster that plays anti-hockey in the hopes of winning games 0 - (-1).

It's also a means of rebuilding that requires little skill and a lot of luck and timing.

Edmonton and BUF are the examples of how it also takes timing and a lot of luck to pick generationnal players after being so bad that you are picking first or top-3.

BUF has yet to give enough flashes of having successfully rebuilt and Edmonton, despite having three 100-point Cs, hasn't proven fukc-all in the playoffs.

Toronto is another fine example of failing to be a successful playoff contender, despite stock-piling talent through complete suckitude.

A lot of hockey fans are seriously being mesmerized by shiny toys during the regular season that have failed miserably come playoff time to date.

Yay for Tampa Bay and PIT, but teams like WAS have been one-hit wonders. Ironically, WAS only won by playing better D and having an interested Ovechkin following that game plan for once.

COL won, but might also be a one-hit wonder, Cup-wise, although they should be yearly contenders for a few more years, which is the true definition of a successful rebuild.

It just isn't a tank and be good reality, or a don't tank and be crap reality. Either one might never yield a Cup-winning team, andbioth could lead to aCup-winning team.

Hybrid philosophies exist where, without necessarily picking in the top-3, adding extra (if not multiple) first round and second round picks, as well as strong prospects closer the NHL ,via trade, increases the level of talent within the system and shortens the time required for the rebuild to take root and provide a perpetual and regular contender.

Gorton applied this strategy in New York and seems be applying it here again, with the help of Hughes, relying on a newly formed development team, multiple first and second round picks, as well as strong prospects already along in their development and closer to playing in the NHL.

I'm satisfied with the HuGo approach that appears to have more direction than flipping a coin on tanking in a good year for that special player that only comes around once in a long while.

A successful rebuild, IMO, rather than tanking over and over again, requires hitting the ball out of the ballpark with later picks than top-10 first round picks (Caufield, Suzuki, Guhle, Mailloux, Hutson, Beck?), or via those trades for prospects or established players with remaining upside (Dach, Newhook, Matheson?).

Boston isn example of succeeding with Marchand (71st OA), Pasternak (25th OA), McAvoy (14th OA), Bergeron (45th OA), Krejci (63rd OA).

 

[Lshap]

Well, let's see... Last year, they could have played Primeau a few games to start. They could have traded Allen for an asset and played Primeau half the year instead of resigning him to a ridiculous contract. They could have traded Anderson for a first if that was actually available as they say. They could have traded Edmundson earlier if a bloody 3rd was all they were going to get for him.

None of these would have qualified as blowing up the team, but they were obsessed with the nebulous component of "winning culture" rather than the very real component of "drafting talent."

Do you believe Hughes had the power to finish last but deliberately chose not to? It doesn't work that way. Primeau might have played better than Allen and won more games. No-names like RHP and Pezetta should've helped us lose – guess what, they did the opposite.

Montreal finished 5th from the bottom in a year when seven teams were actively tanking for Bedard. It's fantasy to believe a GM can chart exactly where his team finishes in the standings.