HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[Scriptor]

Cool, enjoy your 60-point forwards and defensive play. Thankfully...

Enjoy your 60 forwards and defensive play.



Cry more.



Newhook is 5'10" and 190. That's not 200. Average NHL height is 6' and average weight is about 200. If he makes our top 6, he'll contribute to it being undersized. Caufield is one of the smallest players in the league. Suzuki is no giant. 3/6 of the top 6 being undersized is not good.

Suzuki is not undersized, though. Do they need to be 6'6", 240 lbs or more to be the right size your model?

I don't understand how my question about knowing exactly how any draft pick will ultimately contribute dictates that am satisfied with 60-point players.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

Suzuki is not undersized, though. Do they need to be 6'6", 240 lbs or more to be the right size your model?

I don't understand how my question about knowing exactly how any draft pick will ultimately contribute dictates that am satisfied with 60-point players.

I always compare to very the rest of the league. I don't think a 5'10" forward that puts up 60 points brings sufficient utility to the top 6 re: Newhook. If you're in the top 6, I want to see size or high-end talent. Brayden Point isn't big, but he puts up 95 points. I don't see the point of a smallish guy that (from what I've seen) isn't that great defensively whose tippity top ceiling is probably 70 points.

If you want mediocrity, a player like that is fine. If you want an elite team, Newhook doesn't belong in our projected top 6 as it's currently structured.

 

[rik schau]

Certainly, he will probably contribute positively. But it isn't immediately obvious to me to what extent. If he becomes a semi-decent number two and the other guy becomes a 100-point forward, is everyone calling for management's head or are they coping and making excuses for them?

You know how it will go,it'll be a shit-show,a lot of whining and finger pointing, a smorgasbord of retractions etc.

 

[Sorinth]

Newhook is 5'10" and 190. That's not 200. Average NHL height is 6' and average weight is about 200. If he makes our top 6, he'll contribute to it being undersized. Caufield is one of the smallest players in the league. Suzuki is no giant. 3/6 of the top 6 minimum being undersized is not great.

If the goal is for the top 6 to average 6' and 200 lbs or more then from the nhl.com listings (No idea if they are more or less accurate then other places) then a top-6 consisting of the following comes in at 6' and 207lbs.
Caufield-Suzuki-Newhook
Slafkovsky-Dach-Anderson

So we would actually be league average for height in our top-6. Add to that the very likely case that the league's average top-6 is going to be smaller/lighter then average for bottom-6 players. So the numbers are probably skewed even when looking just at forwards. If it's Monahan instead of Slaf we drop to pretty much exactly the 6' 200lb average so still not undersized.

 

[Sorinth]

I always compare to very the rest of the league. I don't think a 5'10" forward that puts up 60 points brings sufficient utility to the top 6 re: Newhook. If you're in the top 6, I want to see size or high-end talent. Brayden Point isn't big, but he puts up 95 points. I don't see the point of a smallish guy that (from what I've seen) isn't that great defensively whose tippity top ceiling is probably 70 points.

If you want mediocrity, a player like that is fine. If you want an elite team, Newhook doesn't belong in our projected top 6 as it's currently structured.

Are you really comparing to the rest of the league, because most teams #5 or #6 forwards are nothing like Point. Since you mentioned Tampa by association, Palat played in their top-6 for years and hit 60 points once and came close once. More recently they have been using Hagel in the top-6 and his career high of 64 points.

If Newhook comes in and puts up 60ish points and is our 5th or 6th best forward we will have an elite forward group. If he puts up those 60ish points and is 3rd or 4th best forward then we are probably going to be average. If those 60 points represent one of our top producers then we will have a bad offence.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

If the goal is for the top 6 to average 6' and 200 lbs or more then from the nhl.com listings (No idea if they are more or less accurate then other places) then a top-6 consisting of the following comes in at 6' and 207lbs.
Caufield-Suzuki-Newhook
Slafkovsky-Dach-Anderson

So we would actually be league average for height in our top-6. Add to that the very likely case that the league's average top-6 is going to be smaller/lighter then average for bottom-6 players. So the numbers are probably skewed even when looking just at forwards. If it's Monahan instead of Slaf we drop to pretty much exactly the 6' 200lb average so still not undersized.

Wouldn't you want above league average? Ideally, I'd think you want to be above league metrics in all ways in order to field a team that's elite.

Are you really comparing to the rest of the league, because most teams #5 or #6 forwards are nothing like Point. Since you mentioned Tampa by association, Palat played in their top-6 for years and hit 60 points once and came close once. More recently they have been using Hagel in the top-6 and his career high of 34 points.

If Newhook comes in and puts up 60ish points and is our 5th or 6th best forward we will have an elite forward group. If he puts up those 60ish points and is 3rd or 4th best forward then we are probably going to be average. If those 60 points represent one of our top producers then we will have a bad offence.

Hagel had 64 points last year, but fair enough. Hagel is in their top 6 (ignoring that he's 6'2") and is a gritty energy guy. He's also an analytics darling from what I remember. He brings something to the line he's on other than being a body.

I don't know if you've watched Colorado at all in the last 2 years, but I haven't personally seen much from Newhook in terms of breaking out offensively or even defensive acumen.

Meanwhile, who are our Point, Stamkos, and Kucherov? Those guys are light years ahead of anyone we have on our team or in our system. Who's our Hedman? Who's our Vasilevskiy? That's the issue. We don't have the horses to compete with teams that are drafting those types of dominant players while we draft guys that are just gonna be all right.

You know how it will go,it'll be a shit-show,a lot of whining and finger pointing, a smorgasbord of retractions etc.

I'll be there with popcorn when it happens I think there will be a lot of cope too.

 

[DAChampion]

Meanwhile, who are our Point, Stamkos, and Kucherov? Those guys are light years ahead of anyone we have on our team or in our system. Who's our Hedman? Who's our Vasilevskiy? That's the issue. We don't have the horses to compete with teams that are drafting those types of dominant players while we draft guys that are just gonna be all right.

If you assume that every Habs prospect is going to bust then yes it logically follows that the rebuild will not be successful.

But that's not insightful.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Not a chance. They may have been disappointed on the O side but C'mon defensively, durability and age wise they aren't even in the same Galaxy.

Goes both ways. Offensively, Drouin is still better.

 

[Rapala]

Goes both ways. Offensively, Drouin is still better.

No he isn't better. Going by their first two NHL seasons which is the only data we need to compare at this point Newhook put up 27 goals and 66 points.
While Drouin put up 8 goals and 42 points and was returned to the AHL during his sophmore season. Drouins third year had him scoring 21 goals and 53 points which was a career high. I suggest we allow Newhook the courtesy of playing out a few seasons as a Hab before you decide to plant your flag on that hill. Drouin's numbers won't be hard to match at all.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Goes both ways. Offensively, Drouin is still better.

Newhook is a much better forward than Drouin. He will likely improve significantly now that he is playing for a coach who will let him play his game.

 

[SlafySZN]

I am really looking forward to see Newhook's impact on that team. For me, it remains, for the moment, a useless acquisition. IF Hughes thinks that the centerline is set with Suzuki-Dach-Monahan-Dvorak-Evans and in a near future, Beck, why acquire a player like Newhook who will end up playing on a wing ? He is not the type of winger Habs need. Plus giving a 1st rounder + a second rounder for that is very steep price to pay. Hughes won't get a "Dach" out of the magic hat every season. He could had waited, make the picks or trade one or the other (or both) for a higher (better) pick or a more needed player.

We lack talent. Newhook has talent and top 6 potential and he is 22 years old.

 

[Sorinth]

Wouldn't you want above league average? Ideally, I'd think you want to be above league metrics in all ways in order to field a team that's elite.

Sure but your complaint wasn't that we were average it was that we were undersized which is false.

Hagel had 64 points last year, but fair enough. Hagel is in their top 6 (ignoring that he's 6'2") and is a gritty energy guy. He's also an analytics darling from what I remember. He brings something to the line he's on other than being a body.

I don't know if you've watched Colorado at all in the last 2 years, but I haven't personally seen much from Newhook in terms of breaking out offensively or even defensive acumen.

Meanwhile, who are our Point, Stamkos, and Kucherov? Those guys are light years ahead of anyone we have on our team or in our system. Who's our Hedman? Who's our Vasilevskiy? That's the issue. We don't have the horses to compete with teams that are drafting those types of dominant players while we draft guys that are just gonna be all right.

Yeah 34 was a typo, the point was that 60 point complementary players are fairly normal for elite offensive teams. And even then the 60 points have a lot to do with the Point, Stamkos, Kucherov's that boost those numbers. When you play complementary players in core roles you get bad results, and that's been our problem for a long time now. But put those same players on a team that has the stars and just needs the complementary player and you get situations like Lehkonen. If Newhook develops into a 60 point player then he'd be an asset to every contender's top-6, so claiming there's no point to having a player like him is plain nonsense. He's not meant to solve our lack of star power up front but that doesn't make him pointless to have in the top-6.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

If you assume that every Habs prospect is going to bust then yes it logically follows that the rebuild will not be successful.

But that's not insightful.

I don't think they'll all bust, but I don't think any of them have the upside of Kucherov, Hedman, Stamkos, or Point.

Sure but your complaint wasn't that we were average it was that we were undersized which is false.

Yeah 34 was a typo, the point was that 60 point complementary players are fairly normal for elite offensive teams. And even then the 60 points have a lot to do with the Point, Stamkos, Kucherov's that boost those numbers. When you play complementary players in core roles you get bad results, and that's been our problem for a long time now. But put those same players on a team that has the stars and just needs the complementary player and you get situations like Lehkonen. If Newhook develops into a 60 point player then he'd be an asset to every contender's top-6, so claiming there's no point to having a player like him is plain nonsense. He's not meant to solve our lack of star power up front but that doesn't make him pointless to have in the top-6.

Fair enough, but who are our stars? One-dimensional Caufield? That's about it? Our core is already complementary players, unfortunately. How are we supposed to get the stars other than by drafting them? The problem isn't Newhook in a vacuum (provided he even develops)... The problem is Newhook in addition to what we currently have... which isn't much.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Newhook is a much better forward than Drouin. He will likely improve significantly now that he is playing for a coach who will let him play his game.

Lolol, yeah yeah. MSL, the magic man.

 

[Miller Time]

Lolol, yeah yeah. MSL, the magic man.

While it's silly to ignore the reality that coaching & environment have a huge impact on individual player performance, don't also discount the impact usage/ice time will have.

Newhook played under 14min/game in Colorado. I suspect he'll be over 17min this year. That alone will bump up his point production even if he makes no progress in productivity (p/60).

He also put up 28/30 pts at ES last year and only 2pts on PP in 82 games (7th in pp ice time for Avs fwds). Safe bet that he'll get a shot at regular pp role with us, doubling if not tripping his PP ice time.

 

[Scriptor]

Wouldn't you want above league average? Ideally, I'd think you want to be above league metrics in all ways in order to field a team that's elite.



Hagel had 64 points last year, but fair enough. Hagel is in their top 6 (ignoring that he's 6'2") and is a gritty energy guy. He's also an analytics darling from what I remember. He brings something to the line he's on other than being a body.

I don't know if you've watched Colorado at all in the last 2 years, but I haven't personally seen much from Newhook in terms of breaking out offensively or even defensive acumen.

Meanwhile, who are our Point, Stamkos, and Kucherov? Those guys are light years ahead of anyone we have on our team or in our system. Who's our Hedman? Who's our Vasilevskiy? That's the issue. We don't have the horses to compete with teams that are drafting those types of dominant players while we draft guys that are just gonna be all right.



I'll be there with popcorn when it happens I think there will be a lot of cope too.

When Montreal becomes more of contender (4more years, maybe 5), players like Stamkos (33), Hedman (32) and Kucherov (30) will be on the downswing of their careers, if not even retired by then. Who will Point, 31 or 32,by thence playing with?

It's unrealistic to expect that TB will draft another Stamkos, Hedman, or Kucherov, by then. Those players are few and far between. When Montreal starts truly competing, TB will be in a position like Boston finds itself today, with the cornerstones of their current offense either goner nearly gone and not producing like they did in their prime.

Toronto has a greater chance of remaining relevant with only Tavares gone by then, even though I don't believe that the character of their core will lead to a Stanley Cup.

Same with EDM that should still be milking McDavid and Draisaitl foray they are worth. Only Nugent-Hopkins should be on his way out by the time Montreal is truly competing, but,again, because of the top-heavy Cap structure in Edmonton, that team will likely lack the depth to win a Cup.

Colorado, IMO, will remain one of the biggest threats to win the Cup by the time Montreal aspires toddling as much, with only Johansen and Cogliano on their way out, or already gone at that point.

Younger teams like, BUF, if they continue building properly their talent pool and continue applying the same cap structure, will become the next powerhouses, but I think Montreal will be able to match up favourably -- if the current prospect pool tops out closet their ceilings in at least 50% of the cases.

That means Hutson or Reinbacher becoming an impact, top-pairing D, Mailloux or Engstrom becoming a solid 2nd pairing D, Roy or Newhook reaching their ceiling and other prospect not currently in the system topping out as middle-six forwards, or quality third and fourth liners; Beck, Heineman, RHP, etc.

Caufield - Suzuki - XXX
Slafkovsky - Dach - Roy/Newhook
RHP/Heineman - Beck - Newhook/Roy
Farrell - Kidney - Heineman

Missing ingredients, like a winger for the Suzuki line will either come from players like Roy exceeding expectations, a trade that weaponizes Cap space or the UFA market.

IMO, we will only know the true nature of the forces on hand in at least two, if not three, years.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Lolol, yeah yeah. MSL, the magic man.

He doesn't have to be a magic man to be better than most of the worthless incompetents coaching in the NHL. And when you add in coaches on contenders that are trying to win and can't spend time developing players there are a lot of bad teams for players that are projects and/or need development time.
Canadiens are probably the best location for Newhook at this point in time. In 2-3 years when they are contending prospects won't have as much leeway. They will still be better off working with Nicholas and MSL though.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

While it's silly to ignore the reality that coaching & environment have a huge impact on individual player performance, don't also discount the impact usage/ice time will have.

Newhook played under 14min/game in Colorado. I suspect he'll be over 17min this year. That alone will bump up his point production even if he makes no progress in productivity (p/60).

He also put up 28/30 pts at ES last year and only 2pts on PP in 82 games (7th in pp ice time for Avs fwds). Safe bet that he'll get a shot at regular pp role with us, doubling if not tripping his PP ice time.

This idea that Marty is some sort of developmental genius just isn’t true. He’s better than Ducharme, but he handled Slaf very similarly to what you’d expect from Julien and Therrien. It was brutal.

Sure, increased ice time and opportunity should help Newhook, especially if you’re sold on him. I was never that high on him, but willing to watch and see how it goes. I haven’t seen much of him over last 2 years, so my opinion is likely out of date. Hoping to be pleasantly surprised here.

 

[Sorinth]

Fair enough, but who are our stars? One-dimensional Caufield? That's about it? Our core is already complementary players, unfortunately. How are we supposed to get the stars other than by drafting them? The problem isn't Newhook in a vacuum (provided he even develops)... The problem is Newhook in addition to what we currently have... which isn't much.

Caufield isn't one dimensional and yes if he can score 50 goals regularly then he would be a star player at the same level of others you listed. Suzuki has a decent chance of getting there too, and getting Newhook can be seen as a way of helping. If they think he's about to breakout into a legit top-6 player then that gives Suzuki a much better chance at going ppg+ because too many games over the last few years he spent with the likes of Ylonen, Pitlick, Hoffman, Gurianov, Armia, arguably even Anderson likely doesn't help Suzuki's consistency. Swap Point and Suzuki to start their careers and I'm pretty sure Suzuki would be the guy with 90 point seasons and Point would be the one without a ppg season.

It took Point 5 years, and Kucherov 6 years to be ppg players following their drafts. So seems odd to be writing off guys like Dach or Slafkovsky as not having star potential. Hell were Kucherov/Point really ahead of Roy/Farrell at the same age? Tampa didn't know those 2nd round picks would be star players for their rebuild, so why should we expect to know each and every star player for ours?

I'd also point out that nothing says we have to get all our stars in the same "tank". Colorado got Landeskog and MacKinnon made the playoffs, spent a few years as a bubble team, and then ended up in the basement again getting Makar and traded for what turned out to be a tank pick and got Byram. Tampa was similar in that they got Stamkos/Hedman in tank #1, got out of the basement and then several years later ended up with another tank year to get Drouin.

So even if the tank is officially over that doesn't mean we won't still get another top picks sometime in the next 5 years. We never used to go into a season with the idea of tanking, yet we still managed a top-5 pick every 5ish years.

 

[Rapala]

Lolol, yeah yeah. MSL, the magic man.

So your stand has gone from Drouin is better to MSL the magic man?

That Newhook will be a better cheaper and a more consistent player than Drouin is a given. As I pointed out earlier he has had a better start to his career. Looking at Drouin's overall performance here I don't think it's possible to do worse production wise while being a better more rounded player. How does Marty even figure in your stance other than giving Newhook the same opportunities Drouin had?

 

[Miller Time]

This idea that Marty is some sort of developmental genius just isn’t true. He’s better than Ducharme, but he handled Slaf very similarly to what you’d expect from Julien and Therrien. It was brutal.

Sure, increased ice time and opportunity should help Newhook, especially if you’re sold on him. I was never that high on him, but willing to watch and see how it goes. I haven’t seen much of him over last 2 years, so my opinion is likely out of date. Hoping to be pleasantly surprised here.

Has nothing to do with "developmental genius"... No use creating strawmen with exaggerations like that.

Completely disagree with your Slaf assessment... And so does the kid.

Juraj Slafkovsky vows to return to Canadiens as more complete player next season

"I know what I need to work on, what type of player I am," he said. "My size and everything. I just need to make it work all together."

montrealgazette.com

“I know what I need to work on, what type of player I am,” he said. “My size and everything. I just need to make it work all together. In this league, it’s very specific and I’m trying to find a balance between all the things I can do. The coaches are helping me to find the best version of myself, so I can help the team win.”

Julien & moreso Therrien had very visibly problematic relationships with many young players. MSL quite clearly has more relational competency than either.

If you can't see the difference, that suggests you don't have the background to make those kind of assessments. I look under the hood of a car & don't know what I'm looking at beyond a very surface level even though I've driven for 30+ years... Being around something doesn't mean one understands the nuances.

How well MSLs approach translates to long term impact remains to be seen. But the early indications are quite clear that he connects better to his player's than any of our 3 previous coaches.

Quality relationships improve communication. I don't think that's a stretch?

Excellence in high performance environments is both increased and more sustainable when strong communication is present. I don't think that's a stretch either.

MSL is building that kind of environment. It sets us up well to get more out of our player development than we have in the past. If he succeeds, that doesn't make him a genius or guru, just a good (and potentially great) coach.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Has nothing to do with "developmental genius"... No use creating strawmen with exaggerations like that.

Completely disagree with your Slaf assessment... And so does the kid.

Juraj Slafkovsky vows to return to Canadiens as more complete player next season

"I know what I need to work on, what type of player I am," he said. "My size and everything. I just need to make it work all together."

montrealgazette.com

“I know what I need to work on, what type of player I am,” he said. “My size and everything. I just need to make it work all together. In this league, it’s very specific and I’m trying to find a balance between all the things I can do. The coaches are helping me to find the best version of myself, so I can help the team win.”

Julien & moreso Therrien had very visibly problematic relationships with many young players. MSL quite clearly has more relational competency than either.

If you can't see the difference, that suggests you don't have the background to make those kind of assessments. I look under the hood of a car & don't know what I'm looking at beyond a very surface level even though I've driven for 30+ years... Being around something doesn't mean one understands the nuances.

How well MSLs approach translates to long term impact remains to be seen. But the early indications are quite clear that he connects better to his player's than any of our 3 previous coaches.

Quality relationships improve communication. I don't think that's a stretch?

Excellence in high performance environments is both increased and more sustainable when strong communication is present. I don't think that's a stretch either.

MSL is building that kind of environment. It sets us up well to get more out of our player development than we have in the past. If he succeeds, that doesn't make him a genius or guru, just a good (and potentially great) coach.

Yeah yeah, you understand the nuances and I don’t. It’s the same old shit from you.

What do you want the kid to say? I’m completely lost and hope to continue to get my bell rung every 3 games.

Two of the last 3 coaches we had were possibly 2 of the worst ever. MSL being better than them isn’t much of an accomplishment. So far, there’s been some young guys play well under him and their relationship appears to be strong. This can turn in a hurry though. Right now, there’s no expectation to win. We will see if those relationships remain tight when the pressure is on.

MSL’s approach with Slaf was terrible. If you don’t see that then you probably don’t understand the nuances.

 

[1909]

We lack talent. Newhook has talent and top 6 potential and he is 22 years old.

He has not shown it so far. Let's hope for the best.

 

[1909]

Yeah yeah, you understand the nuances and I don’t. It’s the same old shit from you.

What do you want the kid to say? I’m completely lost and hope to continue to get my bell rung every 3 games.

Two of the last 3 coaches we had were possibly 2 of the worst ever. MSL being better than them isn’t much of an accomplishment. So far, there’s been some young guys play well under him and their relationship appears to be strong. This can turn in a hurry though. Right now, there’s no expectation to win. We will see if those relationships remain tight when the pressure is on.

MSL’s approach with Slaf was terrible. If you don’t see that then you probably don’t understand the nuances.

No. The probem was keeping him at NHL level last season. That's Hughes' and Gorton's decision. MSL did his best (Like Julien with KK), to shelter him. But he is not on the ice with him. Kid has to learn, and learn fast now about the NHL style of play.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

No. The probem was keeping him at NHL level last season. That's Hughes' and Gorton's decision. MSL did his best (Like Julien with KK), to shelter him. But he is not on the ice with him. Kid has to learn, and learn fast now about the NHL style of play.

Well I don’t think he should have been in the NHL, that much is true. I don’t think we’ve done him many favours since drafting him. Including his deployment last season. 1OA pick playing 10-13 mins a night. Barely any PP minutes, absolutely ridiculous considering the roster we have and who was getting minutes ahead of him.

Not much different than feeding DD top line minutes with Pacioretty while Chucky gets bounced around. Just foolish.