Toggle sidebar

Blue Jays Discussion: The off-season is on. (Robbie Ray wins AL Cy Young)

  • Xenforo Cloud will be upgrading us to version 2.3.5 on March 3rd at 12 AM GMT. This version has increased stability and fixes several bugs. We expect downtime for the duration of the update. The admin team will continue to work on existing issues, templates and upgrade all necessary available addons to minimize impact of this new version. Click Here for Updates
  • We're expeting server maintenance on March 3rd starting at midnight, there may be downtime during the work.
Status
Not open for further replies.
2021-22 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions

Edit: So I have to do this again. I missed a bunch of Jays predictions.

Tim Dierkes Jays Predictions:
7. Robbie Ray $130M/5 Years
29. Kenley Jansen $26M/2 Years
31. Kyle Seager $24M/2 Years

Steve Adams Jays Predictions:
7. Robbie Ray $130M/5 Years
15. Kyle Schwarber $70M/4 Years
29. Kenley Jansen $26M/2 Years
31. Kyle Seager $24M/2 Years

Anthony Franco Jays Predictions:
7. Robbie Ray $130M/5 Years
17. Rasiel Iglesias $56M/4 Years
35. Eduardo Escobar $20M/2 Years

None predicted the Jays re-sign Semien or Matz.

Those are some ugly contracts but the players do improve and compliment the team.

On average these 3 guys spent $50-60M. So if I had $55-60M to spend this offseason for 2022, this is what I would do:

3B Trevor Story $126M/6 Years
SP Carlos Rondon $25M/1 Year
SP Justin Verlander $40/2 Years
Total: $66M

I know I’m cheating because I’m spending $5M more but I’m chasing impact here with minimal term. Story at $126M is ridiculously low and if that’s all it takes, I would definitely have interest.
 
Last edited:
phillipmike said:
2021-22 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions

All 3 writers predict that the Jays will re-sign Ray and not re-sign Semien.

1 writer predicts the Jays will sign Ray and Schwarber.

Another says the Jays with sign Ray and Iglesias.

And the final writer says the Jays will just sign Ray.
Click to expand...
I wonder if management would be in favour of DHing Schwarber most of the time and then sending him out into left whenever they need to get someone off their feet or they have another Springer situation. Id certainly be fine with the defensive shortcomings if it meant we had a lefty bopper in the lineup.
 
I still think the Jays are going to sign Seager.

No, not THAT Seager, heh.

And I hope everyone has made their peace with not resigning Semien. Boras, plus gold glove, plus expressing a desire to player elsewhere in the past...he's gone. Long gone. The money alone will be insane (they will go for $30, no doubt about it; $35 for Jays).

Canada4Gold said:
1st signing off the offseason was reported to be a guy the Jays were at least mildly interested in
Click to expand...

Analysts are always reporting this team or that team is interested in someone, and most of the time they're wrong. And even when they're right, deals fall through all the time. Best not to give any thought to free agent speculation. It's almost always guesswork.

phillipmike said:
2021-22 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
.
Click to expand...

That article makes it sound like Matz was never interested in rejoining the Jays, as I've been saying all year, which is why they should have QO'd him. He would have rejected it anyway (but, just fyi, and this is more likely, he asked the Jays not to QO him. Yes, honour in negotiations is a thing).
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Brown Dog
Hoverhand said:
I wonder if management would be in favour of DHing Schwarber most of the time and then sending him out into left whenever they need to get someone off their feet or they have another Springer situation. Id certainly be fine with the defensive shortcomings if it meant we had a lefty bopper in the lineup.
Click to expand...

Definitely feels like we'll be in the market for a left handed outfielder/DH like a Schwarber or Conforto. It doesn't seem like they're comfortable with using Kirk as a primary DH and running 3 catchers, and as currently constructed we don't really have 9 everyday players where we can rotate the DH unless you're looking at adding a 3B and playing both Biggio and Espinal everyday. Schwarber probably more likely with Conforto getting the QO.

Different topic entirely but I'd personally be all in for Corey Seager. No clue whether he'd be interested in coming here, but feels like the perfect fit.
 
He wouldn't really fit on the team, But I'd love Chris Taylor for my own personal reasons. big fan of him.
 
jetsforever said:
Strange, the opposite (Semien not Ray) seems more likely IMO
Click to expand...

Semien's likely to go out West and 2nd is really the only position Biggio can play decent defensively. For that reason I don't expect the Jays will be willing to outbid others enough to get Semien to stay and to push Biggio to the bench when they have other positions they need to address too. Meanwhile Ray probably takes the most money and while other teams will likely pony up he's had the most success with Pete Walker and the Jays absolutely have to bring in a high end starter so I feel like it's more likely the Jays would be the amongst the highest bids knowing he's done it here rather than other teams gambling he'll take what he's learned from Pete Walker to become successful and stay successful elsewhere.

Either scenario is possible, but for those reasons I think it's way more likely for the Jays to be the higgest bid of Ray rather than be the highest bid on Semien which might not even get it done if he wants to go out West.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jetsforever and Dr.Funk
trellaine201 said:
And I will be very surprised if either Semien , Ray or Vlady have the same numbers moving forward. Too bad we didn’t make the post season.
Click to expand...
I have no idea why you would expect Vlad not to be able to replicate the season he just had. He is going to be a top hitter in baseball right into the next decade. He isn't going to forget how to hit by spring!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kurtz, CherryToke, kb and 2 others
Avilaj07 said:
With the Marlins supposedly interested in Kirk, I wonder if we could snag Alcantara from them in some sort of package.
Click to expand...

I don't want them to move Kirk and I don't want them to move Jansen. But it make a ton of sense to move one of them this offseason, leaving them with a really good young catcher (whichever they keep), a cheap/young backup (McGuire), and an elite prospect at AAA ready to be called up any time (Moreno).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kurtz, hoc123 and jetsforever
TheImpatientPanther said:
Sorry if asked before but how is the compensation pick determined for Semien?
AAV?
And what pick do we think we will get if he goes elsewhere?
Click to expand...

If you give a QO and the player declines and signs elsewhere you get a pick the location depending on whether you received revenue sharing or not, whether you exceeded the luxury tax or not and whether the player signed for more than 50 million total or not.

In the Jays case they would get a pick between rounds 2 and 3 because they neither exceeded the luxury tax(would be between round 4 and 5), nor received revenue sharing(between round 1 and 2 for guys who sign more than 50 million, and between rounds 2 and 3 for those less than 50 million)

The qualifying offer rules, explained

That link is from 2017 but it's the same rules
 
  • Like
Reactions: xtra
phillipmike said:
2021-22 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions

Edit: So I have to do this again. I missed a bunch of Jays predictions.

Tim Dierkes Jays Predictions:
7. Robbie Ray $130M/5 Years
29. Kenley Jansen $26M/2 Years
31. Kyle Seager $24M/2 Years

Steve Adams Jays Predictions:
7. Robbie Ray $130M/5 Years
15. Kyle Schwarber $70M/4 Years
29. Kenley Jansen $26M/2 Years
31. Kyle Seager $24M/2 Years

Anthony Franco Jays Predictions:
7. Robbie Ray $130M/5 Years
17. Rasiel Iglesias $56M/4 Years
35. Eduardo Escobar $20M/2 Years

None predicted the Jays re-sign Semien or Matz.

Those are some ugly contracts but the players do improve and compliment the team.
Click to expand...

Not sure I agree with all the projections of them paying out for a closer. They need pen depth, which means spreading that money around instead of chucking millions at a closer
 
Canada4Gold said:
If you give a QO and the player declines and signs elsewhere you get a pick the location depending on whether you received revenue sharing or not, whether you exceeded the luxury tax or not and whether the player signed for more than 50 million total or not.

In the Jays case they would get a pick between rounds 2 and 3 because they neither exceeded the luxury tax(would be between round 4 and 5), nor received revenue sharing(between round 1 and 2 for guys who sign more than 50 million, and between rounds 2 and 3 for those less than 50 million)

The qualifying offer rules, explained

That link is from 2017 but it's the same rules
Click to expand...

Appreciate it, thanks!!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Top Bottom