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Blue Jays Discussion: The off-season is on. (Robbie Ray wins AL Cy Young)

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Mitchell: Examining potential off-season trade targets for the Blue Jays - TSN.ca

TORONTO — At this time of year, the focus for outsiders is on the free-agent market.

But before front offices truly start to hone in and gauge where those prices will go over the next few weeks, much of their internal attention is spent on the trade market, trying to figure out what possibilities exist on that front first.

Investigating the chances of shifting around redundant assets for already cost-controlled pieces to avoid paying the free-agent market premiums is where things usually start.

The Toronto Blue Jays could be dabbling in this area this winter.

From major-league trade chips such as Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Alejandro Kirk, Randal Grichuk, Danny Jansen and Ross Stripling, to prospect names like Jordan Groshans, Kevin Smith, Otto Lopez, Leo Jimenez and Sem Robberse, there’s no shortage of assets that could pique another team’s interest in trade talks, depending on the magnitude of the deal.

For the Jays, the shift towards using higher-end prospects as trade chips started at the trade deadline, but dealing Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson in exchange for a season and a half of José Berríos won’t be the end.

This winter, however, it would not be surprising to see the Jays finally start to shift around some of their major-league pieces, something both GM Ross Atkins and president/CEO Mark Shapiro hinted at in their year-end availabilities last month.

“I'm not a believer that you have to sign anyone back — I’m a believer that you have to get better,” Shapiro said when asked about their top two free agents, Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien. “As I sit down with Ross and sit in on our meetings or preparation, there are multiple ways for that to happen. We'll have the resources to do it, both in young talent that we could trade and in payroll.”

Atkins doubled down on that assessment.

“Sometimes it may take an addition by subtraction,” Atkins said. “We haven't done much of that. We haven't subtracted from our major league teams. We have to be open to all avenues.”

After looking at the free-agent options at each position this week, we’ll finish things off with a peek at some impact players the Jays could attempt to trade for this winter.
 
Discoverer said:
I'm always hesitant to project too much based on one year (especially when UZR and DRS don't agree on his defense), but he's 35, has had chronic leg injuries for several years now, and is one of the slowest runners in the league, so there's no way I would expect even average defense out of him for his age 36-37 seasons.

I mean... none of this matter because the Jays definitely aren't getting Donaldson, but I suspect most people who want him back just want him because he's a Jays legend and not because it would actually be a good move for the team.
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There’s no way any of the former Jays players are coming back from those 15/16 teams simply because it’s time to move on and they don’t actually have the same value as they once did
 
Bjindaho said:
Canada and the US have a tax treaty which means that he only pays US tax.

My understanding is that for a guy like Stripling, he actually pays a lower rate than anyone on say NYY or Boston, because he'd pay his home rate for games in Toronto (he's from Texas with no state income tax). Again, my American tax law might be off, but I believe it is split up based on where they play, meaning different tax rates for every team they play.
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This is not true. American athletes absolutely pay Canadian tax. What they can get is a credit on their American taxes for Canadian taxes paid. See here or here, for example.
 
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Shocking, I know. I figured we wouldn't get confirmation until the deadline tomorrow.

Still expect Semien and Ray get QOs and Matz doesn't. Matz had a really good year, but his last 5 years doesn't make me want to pay $18.4M to a guy who ideally enters the year as our #5 starter. I think we can better utilize those dollars and find the next Matz for the back end of the rotation.
 
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SDig14 said:


Shocking, I know. I figured we wouldn't get confirmation until the deadline tomorrow.

Still expect Semien and Ray get QOs and Matz doesn't. Matz had a really good year, but his last 5 years doesn't make me want to pay $18.4M to a guy who ideally enters the year as our #5 starter. I think we can better utilize those dollars and find the next Matz for the back end of the rotation.
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Perhaps they haven't made the decision yet but would figure we'd hear about Matz decision soon too
 
Are we eligible for draft compensation for Marcus and Ray if they sign elsewhere? I forget the intricacies of the rule.
 
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Kurtz said:
Are we eligible for draft compensation for Marcus and Ray if they sign elsewhere? I forget the intricacies of the rule.
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They have to play the entire year with the same team. Essentially can't be traded mid season. If they were then a QO couldn't even be offered.

We get the pick for each when they sign elsewhere, assuming they don't resign here
 
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Canada4Gold said:
They have to play the entire year with the same team. Essentially can't be traded mid season. If they were then a QO couldn't even be offered.

We get the pick for each when they sign elsewhere, assuming they don't resign here
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Perfect, appreciate it!
 
Kurtz said:
Are we eligible for draft compensation for Marcus and Ray if they sign elsewhere? I forget the intricacies of the rule.
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Not sure if you saw(and liked) my post before the edit or after. I didn't realize you were asking about the not being traded the prior season rule. So I edited the entire thing.

Essentially if a player gets offered a QO the team will get a pick if they sign elsewhere prior to the draft. The team can only offer a player a QO under the current rules if they were on the same team the entire season and never gotten a QO before. If you see a player being QO'd you don't need to question whether they meet any requirements because they couldn't have been given the QO unless they met said requirements.

Ray, Semien and Matz all were Jays the entire season and have never been given the QO before. So all 3 were eligible. They chose not to QO Matz presumably because he'd likely accept and 18.4 million is a lot for a 4th starter when we have bigger holes elsewhere.

The rules could change with the new CBA, but the current rules will apply to this free agent class. The whole only 1 QO per career and can't get a QO if you were traded midseason rules were recent additions meant to help solve the issue where players were getting less because teams had to give up a pick to sign a player. However that creates compensation imbalance, some teams get a pick for a player who leaves while others don't. As well as a trade inbalance. A team trading a player would have gotten a QO while the team acquiring can't. That could all be solved if they were willing to add picks to the draft to give to teams who lose QO'd players, but the signing team doesn't give up anything so players don't lose money because teams aren't willing to lose a pick to sign them.

Still can't believe Semien didn't get a QO last offseason.
 
SDig14 said:

Matz had a really good year, but his last 5 years doesn't make me want to pay $18.4M to a guy who ideally enters the year as our #5 starter.
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Ah, but you see, young padawan, if you keep Matz, then Ryu becomes expendable and frees up his money so it can be used to resign Ray. Matz accepts and you still have a strong punch in Ray, Berrios, and Manoah, then potentially a good Matz, Pearson, and whomever else they can grab for one of their catchers (go, go Trevor Rogers!). When Matz's contract expires, he either looks great and you keep him on, or he's kind of blah and you let him go, freeing up even more money you need to extend Berrios since you now just demonstrated to him that this team is willing to pay the people who perform. And now you've got a maturing Pearson and possibly another young stud to replace Matz.

But if you don't make that extra effort to keep Matz, you have no extra money for Ray, and Berrios walks 'cause the Jays don't reward their good pitchers (as his agent will likely convince him). We're still on the hook for Ryu's remaining $40 million, and now he's older and riskier than ever. In two years, this rotation staff will consist of 35+ years old Ryu, Manoah, a Pearson they're forced to rush yet again because someone had to take Ray and Matz's spot, and yet another Roark type pitcher because the Jays don't seem to have as much luck with free agent starters as they do relievers.

Of course, Matz could turn down the QO regardless. I would. Now's the time he should be looking for something along the lines of 5 years, 10 million+ a year. Whatever he ends up with, it will be more than $18 mil.
 
TGB said:
Ah, but you see, young padawan, if you keep Matz, then Ryu becomes expendable and frees up his money so it can be used to resign Ray. Matz accepts and you still have a strong punch in Ray, Berrios, and Manoah, then potentially a good Matz, Pearson, and whomever else they can grab for one of their catchers (go, go Trevor Rogers!). When Matz's contract expires, he either looks great and you keep him on, or he's kind of blah and you let him go, freeing up even more money you need to extend Berrios since you now just demonstrated to him that this team is willing to pay the people who perform. And now you've got a maturing Pearson and possibly another young stud to replace Matz.

But if you don't make that extra effort to keep Matz, you have no extra money for Ray, and Berrios walks 'cause the Jays don't reward their good pitchers (as his agent will likely convince him). We're still on the hook for Ryu's remaining $40 million, and now he's older and riskier than ever. In two years, this rotation staff will consist of 35+ years old Ryu, Manoah, a Pearson they're forced to rush yet again because someone had to take Ray and Matz's spot, and yet another Roark type pitcher because the Jays don't seem to have as much luck with free agent starters as they do relievers.

Of course, Matz could turn down the QO regardless. I would. Now's the time he should be looking for something along the lines of 5 years, 10 million+ a year. Whatever he ends up with, it will be more than $18 mil.
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Wait...you think that Berios is going to walk if the Jays don't sign Matz? I don't think Berios will give a shit what happens to Matz if the Jays meet his asking price. That entire premise is honestly ridiculous.
 
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This front office is usually very calculated, but with how slow free agency is likely to move I'd be pretty aggressive in the trade market early on and in trying to extend Berrios.

Give him the 5 year, $110 million offer right away. Make it hard for him to test free agency.
 
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