Blue Jays Discussion: The off-season is on. (Robbie Ray wins AL Cy Young)

[Kurtz]

Yeah, absolutely thrilled for AA, but I'm definitely bitter that the Jays missed the playoffs and a worse team won the World Series.

Imagine how bitter you'd be if you were the Dodgers: 106 wins and you have to play in the wildcard just for the privilege of playing the best team in baseball in a 5-game. Completely wore out Scherzer ahead of the Braves series.


And then the luxury tax bill arrives.

 

[The Nemesis]

It's sour grapes but f*** AA and f*** the Braves

Those 2012 trades should not be forgiven or forgotten so easily. How he thought this team would a world series contender with Thole and Navvarro as their catching battery will always be hilarious

Good on him for realizing that he sucked and taking a demotion to learn under Friedman and geniuses behind the Dodgers

But the Braves are a lucky ass team playing in the worse division possible and a lucky ass GM that got handed to him one of the more stacked prospect pools ever.

The Acuna and Albies contract should be deemed illegal. It's like the Leafs signing Matthews and Nylander to 4 and 3 a piece for max term

To be fair, he didn't take the Dodgers gig as a purposeful "demotion to be a learning experience." He left the Jays because he wanted autonomy and Shapiro wanted collaboration. And he overestimated the market for his services as other teams apparently weren't offering him the keys to their operation unadulterated. So he took the Dodgers AGM role because eventually it's what was there for him to take.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Toronto Blue Jays' Spencer Horwitz shows off bat and speed in AFL - MLB.com

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- The Arizona Fall League annually boasts the premier prospect talent in the game. Through play Wednesday afternoon, with myriad elite up-and-comers on the circuit, just one qualified player boasts a batting average north of .400: Spencer Horwitz.

“It’s a blessing to be here, the AFL is great competition,” Horwitz said after his two-hit, two-steal performance propelled Mesa to a 5-4 win over Scottsdale.

The Toronto first-base prospect has 20 hits through 12 AFL games and stands second with a .508 on-base percentage, and he batted .294 over 109 Minor League games this summer. Don't try to tell Horwitz -- who's struck out just 98 times in 653 pro at-bats -- that whiffs are an acceptable tradeoff for the pursuit of a little more power.

“I’m a big competitor in the box. I hate striking out more than anything,” he said. “I like to put balls in play, make things happen and do damage when the pitchers make mistakes. If I’m putting balls in play four to five times a game, I’m helping my team win, for sure. I know that.”

The left-handed hitter walked (70 times) more than he struck out (68) in 2021, and his .401 OBP over 105 games for Vancouver stood second in the High-A West.

While he totaled 12 home runs this year, nine of those came during his final 32 games (including two in his four-game stint with Double-A New Hampshire). Over that stretch, he produced a striking .414/.480/.734 slash line with 37 RBIs.

Horwitz, who had four stolen bases in the regular season, has equaled that number in 12 AFL games. The secret?

“Just getting some good reads, good jumps, good help from the coaches,” he said.

 

[dredeye]

So with only 4 days until qualifying offers have to be issued do we think the Jays give one to Matz? I think he’d almost certainly accept it so it feels like they won’t but I wouldn’t be surprised. Matz for 1 year at 18.4 isn’t that bad, it’s probably market value, but with a loss of pick attached it puts him in a bad enough spot he probably has to take it so the small reward of getting a pick if the off chance he declines isn’t really worth the potential using up a large chunk of payroll if that prevents something else later in the off-season with bigger holes than a 5th starting pitcher.

It’s good leverage for them to negotiate with him. Might be worth it in the end

 

[dredeye]

Toronto Blue Jays' Spencer Horwitz shows off bat and speed in AFL - MLB.com

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- The Arizona Fall League annually boasts the premier prospect talent in the game. Through play Wednesday afternoon, with myriad elite up-and-comers on the circuit, just one qualified player boasts a batting average north of .400: Spencer Horwitz.

“It’s a blessing to be here, the AFL is great competition,” Horwitz said after his two-hit, two-steal performance propelled Mesa to a 5-4 win over Scottsdale.

The Toronto first-base prospect has 20 hits through 12 AFL games and stands second with a .508 on-base percentage, and he batted .294 over 109 Minor League games this summer. Don't try to tell Horwitz -- who's struck out just 98 times in 653 pro at-bats -- that whiffs are an acceptable tradeoff for the pursuit of a little more power.

“I’m a big competitor in the box. I hate striking out more than anything,” he said. “I like to put balls in play, make things happen and do damage when the pitchers make mistakes. If I’m putting balls in play four to five times a game, I’m helping my team win, for sure. I know that.”

The left-handed hitter walked (70 times) more than he struck out (68) in 2021, and his .401 OBP over 105 games for Vancouver stood second in the High-A West.

While he totaled 12 home runs this year, nine of those came during his final 32 games (including two in his four-game stint with Double-A New Hampshire). Over that stretch, he produced a striking .414/.480/.734 slash line with 37 RBIs.

Horwitz, who had four stolen bases in the regular season, has equaled that number in 12 AFL games. The secret?

“Just getting some good reads, good jumps, good help from the coaches,” he said.

Not someone that was on my radar but will be now. First base prospect is an underwhelming one but if he’s legit it don’t matter

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[phillipmike]

 

[trellaine201]

I am going to guess Semien will strike it rich. 5/$130M.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Yusei Kikuchi declined his 1 year 13 million dollar player option after putting up a 1.1 fWAR, and 4.41 ERA this past season. If Kikuchi thinks he'd worth more than 13 million(on a 1 year deal) is Matz worth more than 18.4 million? 2.8 fWAR and 3.82 ERA. I would assume Kikuchi declined to get some term even if it's less than 13 average, but the point stands.

I'm good either way. Best case scenario might be not QOing him, signing him for something like 2 years 25 million, him proving the results again over 2 more seasons, still being QO eligible and we get the pick anyway 2 years later.

 

[Bjindaho]

Please don't quote Ben as if he is a viable source. He knows as little as anyone on these boards (or less in some cases).

If you think Matz can get 15+ on a multi-year deal, he should be qualified. If you don't, he shouldn't.

If 15 is fair money over time, then 18.4 is at worst a slight overpay to not have term.

 

[Bjindaho]

Yusei Kikuchi declined his 1 year 13 million dollar player option after putting up a 1.1 fWAR, and 4.41 ERA this past season. If Kikuchi thinks he'd worth more than 13 million(on a 1 year deal) is Matz worth more than 18.4 million? 2.8 fWAR and 3.82 ERA. I would assume Kikuchi declined to get some term even if it's less than 13 average, but the point stands.

I'm good either way. Best case scenario might be not QOing him, signing him for something like 2 years 25 million, him proving the results again over 2 more seasons, still being QO eligible and we get the pick anyway 2 years later.

The opt out on this also makes him eligible to go back home where he could make similar money.

 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

Is nobody insulted a little that this article basically paints the Jays as a small market that can't afford to keep stars?

Like we have the 4th largest media market in North America and second wealthiest owner outside Cohen in NY, but they say we can't afford Ray or Semien lol

The problem with Toronto, when compared to other cities, is taxes. When a player can go to a US city/ state and either pay very little to no taxes, it's going to win out more time or not. When you figure that after federal, provincial and municipal taxes, a player can lose up to 55% of their salary, that's a big hit.

 

[theaub]

The problem with Toronto, when compared to other cities, is taxes. When a player can go to a US city/ state and either pay very little to no taxes, it's going to win out more time or not. When you figure that after federal, provincial and municipal taxes, a player can lose up to 55% of their salary, that's a big hit.

Eh between jock taxes and the fact that most attractive MLB teams (New York, California etc) have high tax rates themselves this isn't a big deal in baseball.

 

[BlueForever75]

Jays should qualify Ray, Semien and Matz. Wouldnt be the worst case if any of them accept. Maybe Matz accepts to further increase his value working with Pete Walker another season. Ray took this approach and it paid off.

Matz on a 1 year deal isnt too bad considering it buys us another year of grooming both Manoah and Pearson to eventually replace him while not tying up dollars on a long term deal which in turn can be given to Berrios.

 

[Bjindaho]

Kyle Schwarber just became a FA. He could be an interesting lefty bat in the OF depending on cost.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Dominguez finally puts up a solid AFL start. 6 IP, 2 runs, only 1 earned(on a solo HR), 6 K's, 0 walks, 3 hits

Jimenez got pulled in the 3rd, no clue if it's injury related or not

 

[TGB]

I'm good either way. Best case scenario might be not QOing him, signing him for something like 2 years 25 million, him proving the results again over 2 more seasons, still being QO eligible and we get the pick anyway 2 years later.

30 year old pitchers coming off a hot end to a season against high caliber teams don't ask for 2 year contracts. They want term. He'll be looking for 5 years at least. The Jays better QO him.

Eh between jock taxes and the fact that most attractive MLB teams (New York, California etc) have high tax rates themselves this isn't a big deal in baseball.

Americans still have to pay US taxes even when living/working outside the country (it's based on citizenship, not residence), so that on top of Canadian taxes is pretty hefty; thus, the Toronto tax fans are always going on about is more real than they think.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

30 year old pitchers coming off a hot end to a season against high caliber teams don't ask for 2 year contracts. They want term. He'll be looking for 5 years at least. The Jays better QO him.



Americans still have to pay US taxes even when living/working outside the country (it's based on citizenship, not residence), so that on top of Canadian taxes is pretty hefty; thus, the Toronto tax fans are always going on about is more real than they think.

He might want 5 years but someone has to be willing to give him 5 years. I don't think there is a snowballs chance in hell that he gets a 5+ year contract. Not even a little bit.

 

[Bjindaho]

30 year old pitchers coming off a hot end to a season against high caliber teams don't ask for 2 year contracts. They want term. He'll be looking for 5 years at least. The Jays better QO him.



Americans still have to pay US taxes even when living/working outside the country (it's based on citizenship, not residence), so that on top of Canadian taxes is pretty hefty; thus, the Toronto tax fans are always going on about is more real than they think.

Canada and the US have a tax treaty which means that he only pays US tax.

My understanding is that for a guy like Stripling, he actually pays a lower rate than anyone on say NYY or Boston, because he'd pay his home rate for games in Toronto (he's from Texas with no state income tax). Again, my American tax law might be off, but I believe it is split up based on where they play, meaning different tax rates for every team they play.

 

[TGB]

He might want 5 years but someone has to be willing to give him 5 years. I don't think there is a snowballs chance in hell that he gets a 5+ year contract. Not even a little bit.

I don't know why you're so sure. He's 30, there's a good chance he'll be good for at least a few more years, and he'll likely pitch much better in easier divisions. Whether he'll actually be good or not over that time is pure guesswork, I think he got hot but is ultimately a 4 ERA pitcher, but good pitching is in way too much demand to believe absolutely nobody would be willing to give him what he wants under absolutely no circumstance.

Canada and the US have a tax treaty which means that he only pays US tax.

Well, we're going to have to get an expert in here to explain this because I keep finding all sorts of government websites that contradict this. Clearly there's all sorts of exceptions and clauses involved.

*From HR Block: "Most U.S. tax treaties have what’s known as a saving clause. The saving clause essentially states that a country may tax its citizens as if the treaty never existed. As a result, it renders most provisions of the treaty ineffective for Americans living in Canada, but leaves them open for Canadian citizens living in the U.S."

 

[as Pure as Evil]

So seems like chapman and one of montas and manaea might be had for less the jram. Might be the way to go,

 

[dredeye]

So seems like chapman and one of montas and manaea might be had for less the jram. Might be the way to go,

We should be all over it and have pieces they would want. Biggio would for sure be in the deal I would think

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I don't know why you're so sure. He's 30, there's a good chance he'll be good for at least a few more years, and he'll likely pitch much better in easier divisions. Whether he'll actually be good or not over that time is pure guesswork, I think he got hot but is ultimately a 4 ERA pitcher, but good pitching is in way too much demand to believe absolutely nobody would be willing to give him what he wants under absolutely no circumstance.



Well, we're going to have to get an expert in here to explain this because I keep finding all sorts of government websites that contradict this. Clearly there's all sorts of exceptions and clauses involved.

He is a 30 year old pitcher coming off 1 good bounce back season after being a home run factory the previous couple seasons before that. Teams aren't going to sign him through his 35 year old season betting on this season being real. It might be real but that doesn't matter. The absolute most I see Matz getting in term is a 3 year deal.

 

[Discoverer]

He is a 30 year old pitcher coming off 1 good bounce back season after being a home run factory the previous couple seasons before that. Teams aren't going to sign him through his 35 year old season betting on this season being real. It might be real but that doesn't matter. The absolute most I see Matz getting in term is a 3 year deal.

Completely agree. If the term is low enough, I could see him pushing up to 3 years. But there aren't any examples of guys like Matz getting 5 years, so I don't see why it would start now.

 

[hockeywiz542]