Blue Jays Discussion: The off-season is on. (Robbie Ray wins AL Cy Young)

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I didn't realize they had so many interesting pitchers. And the Jays have exactly what the Marlins need: Kirk. He can hit, which will sell tickets (assuming anything can sell tickets in Florida), he can...sort of play defense, but he's young enough to improve, and he fits their overall structure and timeline better than Toronto (although he would actually hit home runs in Toronto, but whatever).

That's why I would zero in on Trevor Rogers and nobody else...assuming there isn't anything weird about his game (he looks okay from a distance; if not, one of their other great pitchers). Forget prospects. They've got enough prospects to cover any major losses to their pitching staff and the Jays are losing pitchers now. Throw in Stripling or Ryu if you have to, but focus ONLY on their good pitchers. If a long term catcher with high offensive potential on a team that doesn't have pretty much anything isn't enough to sway them, then forget them. You don't trade young offensive catchers for prospects during win now mode.

They could likely get a better deal elsewhere, and it would actually be better for them to keep all four of their great pitchers, but when a team is desperate and you've got what they need, you have to play hard ball.
 
Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro on building ‘championship-calibre team,’ future payroll, Rogers Centre renovation, more - The Athletic

On what the outlook for the payroll is in 2022 and beyond:

In each of the last two offseason debriefs with the media, Shapiro has discussed his expectation for the team’s payroll to increase, as they work to supplement the team’s young core with experienced players. While his meeting with Rogers ownership to discuss the offseason budget won’t occur for another month, Shapiro said he expects the club’s payroll to again increase in anticipation of next season.

“Every indication I’ve received, and I think every indication that we’ve been shown, which is a demonstration of consistent and strong support, along with us fulfilling our end of that bargain, which is demonstrating that the team continues to improve, and we continue to perform on the field, as well as front office and run the business side, leads me to believe that we will stay on plan and the payroll will continue to rise, despite the fact that we’re still lagging behind it a little bit in revenues due to uncontrollable circumstances,” Shapiro said.


During the 2021 season, the Blue Jays ran a payroll of about $136 million, per Roster Resource. Heading into next season, the Blue Jays have about $65 million committed to guaranteed contracts and another $50 million or so will be dedicated to arbitration and non-arbitration players, for an estimated total of $114 million as it stands now, leaving significant room to spend.

...........................

On the prospect of re-signing free agents Ray, Semien and Steven Matz:

All three players had excellent, bounce-back seasons after the 2020 season was unkind to them and have set themselves up well for free agency this year. Both Ray and Semien, in particular, look poised to be two of the most coveted free agents this offseason. And none of the three will come cheap.

Atkins has previously said the Blue Jays would be interested in bringing all three players back next season, and Shapiro commented on that possibility, too.

“We would love to sign all three of those guys back,” he said. “I can talk about each of them and how strongly we feel about them as teammates, as performers, as players and as people, and they’re guys that we’re going to go into the market and compete for, but I’m not a believer that you have to sign anyone back; I’m a believer that you have to get better."


“And as I sit down with Ross and sit in on our meetings of preparation, there are multiple ways for that to happen,” Shapiro continued. “We’ll have the resources to do it, both in young talent that we could trade, and in payroll, so I guess what I’d say is I’m confident, it may not be in the exact same shape and form, but we’re going to get better. We’ll find a way to do it.”

.............................

On the ways the team can improve the on-field product in 2022 and beyond

The Blue Jays will need to rebuild their rotation for 2022, replacing Ray and Matz, either by re-signing each or bringing in other equivalent starting pitchers who can fill those roles.

On the bullpen, Shapiro mentioned needing to add “experience and reliability” to that area of the roster. As for the lineup, the Blue Jays president echoed Atkins’ thoughts when he said the offence could benefit from some variety in both handedness — they were short on lefties in 2021 — and approach, namely, bringing in guys who are more patient to contrast with their many aggressive hitters.

“I would caution that just solving those problems will usually result in another set of problems coming up that we’re unaware of right now,” Shapiro added. “And there will be things that when you sit and talk to Ross in six months or eight months, there will be things that come up that we are not considering right now. So, some ability to adjust on the fly is really important, through either players in your system through trades, through some financial flexibility. There will be things that we have to do that we’re not expecting right now. But what we will do is continue to take the information that we have, the information that we can project, and continue to look to find ways to get better and that some of that will be through those things I mentioned.”
 
So I check the score and see it's only the top of four and they've been playing for 90 minutes. The game is on pace to take 4 hours and thirty minutes to play a 9 inning game. Every year MLB talks about speeding the game up but it doesn't seem to happen.

I go check the AFL stats and they haven't been updated!
 


Toronto Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro Full End Of Year Press Conference

October 18, 2021

SPORTSNET

Toronto Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro takes questions from the media after the team failed to make the playoffs.
 
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This account posted about the Jays returning to Toronto on July 30th before the media on July 4th.



FWIW, with the vaccination data that was out there it was very easy to predict the July 30th date. I sent a message in a Blue Jays Chat Group I'm in that predicted the return date, on June 14th.

I'm not 100% saying this guy didn't have inside information, but he easily could have framed a prediction as inside information. I think this is another case where all signs are indicating a greatly increased payroll for 2022, so he can make a pretty safe prediction and pretend that he heard it from someone inside the organization.

Low follower twitter accounts play this game a lot.
 


This account posted about the Jays returning to Toronto on July 30th before the media on July 4th.



Fun Fact: That tweet was actually incorrect at the time. The Jays were working on the returning for the 16th when that was tweeted.
 
Based on the comments from Shapiro, I'd bet that we can go to 180 or 190 before his talk with Rogers and potentially into the low 200s if something pops up.

Sportrac has us at 108 with arbitration estimates in.

If we are in the running for a top end starter, mid rotation starter and a quality infielder, there has to be 70+ in our warchest if we need it.
 
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Do you ever use Baseball trade value site?

They have this as the Marlins pitchers MTV

Rogers 96.7
Alcantara 78
Lopez 65.9
Sanchez 52.5

These are the Jays MTV's of players I'd say they'd be willing to potentially move in trade

Moreno 56.5
O Martinez 25
Groshans 24.5
Gurriel 22.9
Kirk 15.8
Jansen 14.9
Biggio 12
Hoglund 9.3
Pearson 9.1
Mcguire 9
Espinal 8.5
Hiraldo 8.5
Lopez 7.2

So say you arent moving Moreno for one of the top 3 marlins pitchers and it's Kirk. You'd have to start adding quite a bit and most likely looking at like a 3 for 1 to even a 5 for 1 type of move.

If you're willing to move Moreno for one of these guys, the trade becomes much more straight forward.

Obviously these values arent exactly 100% accurate but pretty cool website to get a gauge of players overall value.
 
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Do you ever use Baseball trade value site?

They have this as the Marlins pitchers MTV

Rogers 96.7
Alcantara 78
Lopez 65.9
Sanchez 52.5

These are the Jays MTV's of players I'd say they'd be willing to potentially move in trade

Moreno 56.5
O Martinez 25
Groshans 24.5
Gurriel 22.9
Kirk 15.8
Jansen 14.9
Biggio 12
Hoglund 9.3
Pearson 9.1
Mcguire 9
Espinal 8.5
Hiraldo 8.5
Lopez 7.2

So say you arent moving Moreno for one of the top 3 marlins pitchers and it's Kirk. You'd have to start adding quite a bit and most likely looking at like a 3 for 1 to even a 5 for 1 type of move.

If you're willing to move Moreno for one of these guys, the trade becomes much more straight forward.

Obviously these values arent exactly 100% accurate but pretty cool website to get a gauge of players overall value.

Alcantara for a middle infield prospect, Kirk, Pearson, Espinal is about 20 off (which might work given that they won't pay both he and Rogers).
 

so 2 roster players and 2 top prospects is atleast what they were asking. . i would rather sign who ever is in the free agent class then spend that capital.

god i hope they divert there attention to chapman. if that's the cost Cleveland is asking. he might have had a down year but he would be what we need a a elite defensive first 3b who in all regards should be a fraction of the cost then the guardians are asking. who will still smash out 30hr and give you atleast 80 rbi
 
so 2 roster players and 2 top prospects is atleast what they were asking. . i would rather sign who ever is in the free agent class then spend that capital.

god i hope they divert there attention to chapman. if that's the cost Cleveland is asking. he might have had a down year but he would be what we need a a elite defensive first 3b who in all regards should be a fraction of the cost then the guardians are asking. who will still smash out 30hr and give you atleast 80 rbi

I agree. I would rather use our draft capital to boost our pitching at deadline if needed than acquire more offence. This to me should be accomplished through free agency. I would personally stay away from Chapman, I just dont have a good feeling about the player.

There a various infield types available this off season for money and money only. Offer 1 a multi-year deal of 22 million per and go up to 25-26 per if its the right one. Based on our estimated payroll of 108 million heading into free agency, it still leaves us approximately 35 million to get to the 180 million payroll Shapiro speaks of. This is without the caveat that "if the right opportunity presents itself we can even go higher"!!!
 
So Atlanta finish's with 18 fewer wins than the Dodgers and gets to potentially play games 6/7 at home?

MLB playoff format is so stupid.
 
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So Atlanta finish's with 18 fewer wins than the Dodgers and gets to potentially play games 6/7 at home?

MLB playoff format is so stupid.

They seed division winners above Wild Card winners. I think that's a valid decision, but it can occasionally lead to a bit of an oddity. If LA had actually managed to win their division, they'd have the home field advantage.

LA has the best road record of all the remaining teams (SF and MIL were better, TB was tied), so how much does ATL having an extra home game really help them when? Especially since ATL had the worst home record of all playoff teams.
 
They seed division winners above Wild Card winners. I think that's a valid decision, but it can occasionally lead to a bit of an oddity. If LA had actually managed to win their division, they'd have the home field advantage.

LA has the best road record of all the remaining teams (SF and MIL were better, TB was tied), so how much does ATL having an extra home game really help them when? Especially since ATL had the worst home record of all playoff teams.

Sure but LA only finished second in their division to the team who had the most victories in the entire MLB.

They had the second best record in all of baseball.

They then had to play a single elimination game where they had to use their ace starter where much inferior teams went directly to the division series and had their ace starter ready to go game 1.

They then had to somehow play the Giants in the division round and MIL and ATL greatly benefit from an easier matchup.

The Braves had the least amount of wins by any team that made the playoffs. Theres just no way that a team that boasts that should be left with home field advantage in the championship series versus a team that finished almost 20 games ahead of them thru a 162 game season.

This format lends way too much advantage to being in a terrible division and teams that play in a stacked division get punished bigtime.
 
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Jeff Blair says he knows forsure that the Jays will attempt to trade for Jose Ramirez this offseason.

Not sure he has credible inside sources but interesting still.

:popcorn:
 
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To be honest, that cost doesn't even really seem that high to me. Mauricio would be a big piece (I'm guessing something like Martinez or Groshans from the Jays), but Vientos is a good-not-great prospect and Smith and McNeil, while they have some value, were awful last year. That doesn't strike me as particularly exorbitant.
It’s the Kirk plus top prospects and major league talent. I’m assuming they mean Lourdes. Kirk, Lourdes, Groshans plus seems like a huge package

I suppose they are all replaceable Groshans with Ramírez. We are loaded at catcher and lf is the easiest spot to fill. But that seems like a ton not to mention they want more.
 
Kirk, Lourdes, Groshans and some lottery ticket is a very fair offer for Ramirez. Cleveland could prefer another offer, but we should be in on any potential bidding war with that offer

But this team has so much flexibility and is also a contender that we could go in any direction to acquire more talent

Love what Shatkins have built, they just have to execute and take risks now to make this a perennial contender for the next decade
 
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