Blue Jays Discussion: The off-season is on. (Robbie Ray wins AL Cy Young)

[weems]

Spotrac has Correa's calculated market value at 10 years 266M

 

[Kurtz]

Why can’t Toronto be a bigger market? I know our locale doesn’t help but do you think that is why we will never be considered a big market in the MLB?

We can't expect them to spend what the Dodgers and the Yankees spend on a regular basis. We had the 11th highest payroll this year and we have to account for future deals for the likes of Ray, Berrios, Teoscar, Vlad, Bo, etc.

So it's not even the dollar amount per year, but the number of years. It's one thing if Correa agreed to sign for 4 years at even $35 mil, but if you give him 8 years then that really complicates signing our stars down the line.

That's part of the reason why bringing back Ray/Semien is attractive - both guys are likely only to get 4-5 year deals.

 

[Bjindaho]

Spotrac has Correa's calculated market value at 10 years 266M

I call BS. I see him as by far the most attractive SS on the market due to age, D and history with the bat.

 

[weems]

They have this for SS

Correa 10 years 266M
Story 8 years 238M
Seager 9 years 286M
Baez 8 years 193M
Semien 4 years 78M

 

[Bjindaho]

They have this for SS

Correa 10 years 266M
Story 8 years 238M
Seager 9 years 286M
Baez 8 years 193M
Semien 4 years 78M

Yeah, no.

Correa should get the most IMO, but Seager will be close. Story is almost 2 years older and has some interesting splits that suggest that his power would go down (unless he's somewhere like Toronto where it is easy to hit and he'd be extremely well insulated). I think Semien is the 3rd best (even if I think that his offense will go down some). If Correa will take that contract, I give him that with a smile on my face (and Bo becomes a 2B or 3B depending on what else we do).

 

[Maestro84]

Shortstop FAs IMO:

1. Carlos Correra (yes I know, a cheater , but given his young age, power, defense and extensive pedigree I don’t see how he isn’t first)

2. Corey Seager (same age as Correra but hits with slightly less power, he’s elite at basically every aspect of the game though)

3. Marcus Semien (perhaps the best middle infielder in the world right now but the main downside is he’s much older than every one else I’m mentioning on this list so he won't have as many productive years left compared to the two above him)

4. Trevor Story (I’m getting Tulo vibes from this guy. They’re around the same age when they left Colorado and injuries along with the coors field affect could tinker with his long term production)

5. Javy Baez (loads of talent but he’s just way too wild and inconsistent to lock up to a deal for a half decade plus. He’ll likely be a contingency for the teams who need a middle infielder and strike out on the guys above)

 

[SDig14]

Are we even sure there are 5 teams in MLB willing to give $100-$300 million to one guy that also need a middle infielder? Teams didn't exactly make loads of money the last 2 years and teams like the Yankees and Mets didn't even seem willing to pay the luxury tax.

My guess is Correa and Seager get the big pay days, Semien gets a solid deal for 4-5 years (hopefully from us) and then Baez and Story may have to take a Semien type deal or a shorter deal in the 4 year range.

If a team gives Story or Baez 8-10 years they're out of the minds and deserve all the dead money that will come with it.

 

[Bjindaho]

My expectation is this:

Correa gets PAID - 10 years, 35-40M a year

Seager gets 10 years, 28-30M a year (he's significantly worse with the glove which hurts his stock a lot)

Semien gets something like 4 years at 25M a year (3 at 25 to us would be even better IMO)

Baez gets 5 or 6 years around 22M a year (probably from NYM honestly)

Story gets a QO from Colorado which tanks his market. On a one-year prove it deal, (around 22M) I would be perfectly okay with being the team that props up Story's value.

 

[Suntouchable13]

The money that might be flying around is scary. How do the Jays afford to keep all those guys? I am talking about Ray, Semien, and Berrios. Then You have to re-sign Vlad and Bo. Ultimately, probably not all of them will be here.

 

[The Nemesis]

The money that might be flying around is scary. How do the Jays afford to keep all those guys? I am talking about Ray, Semien, and Berrios. Then You have to re-sign Vlad and Bo. Ultimately, probably not all of them will be here.

True. Which is why the Jays are likely to be more cautious and careful about dealing with the FA market guys like Semien and Ray. Because if it came down to looking at the financial futures of those 5 guys you mentioned, then Ray and Semien are the ones you would have to "sacrifice" first to ensure you can keep the other 3 since they're more important (largely because of their ages).

I'd love both Ray and Semien back, but given the above you have to approach their deals with the classic negotiation setup of having decided on your starting point, optimal deal, drop-dead point, and contingency plan before you even begin to discuss terms with them

 

[Maestro84]

The money that might be flying around is scary. How do the Jays afford to keep all those guys? I am talking about Ray, Semien, and Berrios. Then You have to re-sign Vlad and Bo. Ultimately, probably not all of them will be here.

The Jays aren't Tampa, Milwaukee or Kansas they can afford a big payroll

 

[Maestro84]

My expectation is this:

Correa gets PAID - 10 years, 35-40M a year

Seager gets 10 years, 28-30M a year (he's significantly worse with the glove which hurts his stock a lot)

Semien gets something like 4 years at 25M a year (3 at 25 to us would be even better IMO)

Baez gets 5 or 6 years around 22M a year (probably from NYM honestly)

Story gets a QO from Colorado which tanks his market. On a one-year prove it deal, (around 22M) I would be perfectly okay with being the team that props up Story's value.

I doubt Semien signs for anything less than a 4-year long deal especially after the season he just had although it won't be nearly as long as the ones for Seager and Correa due to him being a few years older than them. I also think Seager's contract will be shorter and "cheaper" than Correa's by a decent margin as he's simply a better player imo

Fun thoughts, if the Jays can get one of these guys how would the infield shape up?

- If Jays get Correa, Bo moves to second and I'd lose respect for Bo if he pulls a Jeter and is unwilling to move from short. I doubt the Jays are willing to throw such money at anyone but because the Jays have Springer on their team, I suspect they will attempt a recruit

- If they get Seager, Corey is pretty much guaranteed to move to third as the hot corner was always his natural position anyway, he just had to move to short because LAD already had Turner. I have a feeling Seager is the Jays' top target for an infielder if they can't re-sign Marcus

- If it's Semien it will depend. It's a toss up between whether they will keep it status quo from this year or have them switch positions with one another

I'm not all that into Story or Javy but I'd imagine you'll see a similar instance to the one with Semien as both of them can play 2B and SS if I'm not mistaken

 

[phillipmike]

‎Baseball America: Previewing The Arizona Fall League on Apple Podcasts

[Norris] "...The reviews we were getting on Gabriel Moreno were, I think, the best reviews I’ve gotten on any player in my 8 years at Baseball America. I have him as best catcher in minors.” Podcast 20:41

More from the Podcast:
"...every review we got back from (indicating Moreno) to be an all-star, perennial all-star, or even better than that."

"...could not fathom the things that coming out of scouts. one of the quotes from the scout i got was [...it's not a question of whether Moreno is going to be all-star, it's amount of all-star games he's going to make until he hits 30]"

 

[aingefan]

‎Baseball America: Previewing The Arizona Fall League on Apple Podcasts

[Norris] "...The reviews we were getting on Gabriel Moreno were, I think, the best reviews I’ve gotten on any player in my 8 years at Baseball America. I have him as best catcher in minors.” Podcast 20:41

More from the Podcast:
"...every review we got back from (indicating Moreno) to be an all-star, perennial all-star, or even better than that."

"...could not fathom the things that coming out of scouts. one of the quotes from the scout i got was [...it's not a question of whether Moreno is going to be all-star, it's amount of all-star games he's going to make until he hits 30]"

No pressure, kid.

 

[SDig14]

I know that none of us affect actual decision making, but it's concerning how some in here some content with accepting we can't "afford" all our players. Do any of you think the Rays, Yankees or Red Sox are going to get worse in the next few years?

I don't see how letting Ray and Semien go to prioritize Berrios and the young guys doesn't make us significantly worse going forward. This is obvious, I know, but we need significant signings just to stay where we are now.

Vlad and Bo aren't even going to get their maximum annual salaries for likely 4 and 5 years, by which time even Springer is off the books.

I understand we may not be able to hand out crazy term to anyone other than Bo and Vlad, but I think we need to be aggressively spending on deals 6 years or less in order to win and win soon.

 

[Kurtz]

The money that might be flying around is scary. How do the Jays afford to keep all those guys? I am talking about Ray, Semien, and Berrios. Then You have to re-sign Vlad and Bo. Ultimately, probably not all of them will be here.

We should be able to afford all of them, assuming Semien/Ray agree to 3-5 year deals which would end when Bo and Vlad's deals kick in.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

Just front load any contracts and that should put us in a good position to keep our young core together.

 

[SDig14]

We should be able to afford all of them, assuming Semien/Ray agree to 3-5 year deals which would end when Bo and Vlad's deals kick in.

We should be able to do this rather easily without even needing a $200 million payroll.

And if we keep drafting and developing and scouting well in the international markets then hooefulky we keep the pipeline full of young and cheap players to supplement Bo and Vlad in 5 years when they are getting paid a ton.

 

[phillipmike]

No pressure, kid.

I'm convinced that they interviewed his mom, because i haven't seen a prospect get such a glowing review and barely be in anyone's top 3.

This might be a tier behind guys like Vlad, Franco and Acuna and ahead of guys like Bichette and Pearson.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Canada4Gold]

Moreno hasn’t played yet in the Arizona fall League which is weird. Dominguez starts today. Jimenez has played a bit. Have seen a couple of the others

 

[Suntouchable13]

We should be able to afford all of them, assuming Semien/Ray agree to 3-5 year deals which would end when Bo and Vlad's deals kick in.

I hope you're right

 

[Del Preston]

 

[Nineteen67]

I guess that settles it…..I’ll convince myself Houston is the lesser of two evils and cheer for them…

 

[phillipmike]

I believe we are in the midst of one of those magical Red Sox years where they win the World Series. I prefer someone from the National League wins, mostly the Dodgers.

But if I had to choose a team to win in the AL, I will say Houston because it isn’t Boston and mainly this could be Dusty Baker’s last year coaching. He deserves a WS.

Coached the Giants, Cubs and Nats and those teams all won World Series after he left though not immediately except for Washington.

Unfortunate that he was 6 outs away from a WS in 2002 when they were up 5-0 only to give up 3 in the 8th and 3 in the 9th to lose game 6 and eventually game 7. After this is contract wasn’t renewed. Crappy way to go out. And then the very next year he joins the Cubs and that was the year we had the Bartman interference.