deadhead
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2014
- 51,053
- 22,223
Actually, yes. Though ripping off teams in trade is a long-shot proposition, those trades are few and far between. Ottowa only makes one of those deals every other year.2. So, if drafting players is a poor strategy, then how should a team acquire players? free agents? hoping you ripoff a few teams in trades? hope a few teams waive some good players?
However, taking advantage of teams competing for the Cup (or deluding themselves into thinking they're contenders) is a viable strategy, as long as you're realistic about the value of 1st rd picks in the 20s. Picking off RFAs from cap strap teams, picking up players on waivers or off the street (Verhaege, Nichushkin, etc.), college free agents, etc.
Even those top teams usually only have 2-3 high draft picks, they also find some top players by other means, late 1st and 2nd rd picks they develop, underachieving young players that contending teams lose patience with, etc.,
Drafting isn't enough unless you're well above average after the first 40 or so, because success in the top 40, as Jo Jo pointed out, is stochastic, similar to financial analysts and investment bankers, the illusion of superiority rarely holds up in a large sample. However, some teams do seem to find players later in the draft at a significantly higher rate than other teams - probably because there's less available information so investing in scouting skill pays larger dividends.