The New and really Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[zeke]

Who was the last player to score at a rate of 0.79 G/GP ??

probably Ovechkin, but he needed WAY more PP time to do it.

Every team in the league knows Matty. He is not going to surprise anybody. Not saying Matty can't do it but I'd be willing to bet that he does not score more than 55 in an 82 game schedule.

Goal Paces

Age 19: 40 (32es/8pp)
Age 20: 45 (38es/7pp)
Age 21: 45 (30es/15pp)
Age 22: 55 (41es/14pp)
Age 23: 65 (49es/16pp)

 

[ToneDog]

your going about this argument totally wrong . its not the goals per game that is unsustainable. its the shooting percentage
Matthews isn't going to shoot 18% for his career its impossible. Either way even if you set it to 14 to 15% below his career average he is pretty much guaranteed to score above 50.

i see similarities with ovechkin aswell. Ovy had his best scoring (G/P) season at 22years old.



all that being said ........ who cares , these are all projections and matthews could surprise everyone and score 70 next year.

Yup shotting percentage plays a big part but he can offset that by taking more shots on goal. No ? The way I see it, his Shooting percentage will dictates his goals/game average.

Another factor is the 82 game season versus a 56 game season. More difficult to keep up that average over the longer season IMO.

Now if Matty stays healthy for 70+ games, and scores more PP goals, it is possible he scores 60+ goals. I'd bet the under though.

 

[ITM]

Dubas defenders have to cling to technicalities to explain the regression. Yes, they made the expanded playoff setup. They failed to qualify for the round of 16, the traditional number of teams in the playoffs. And they were not close in that series to boot.

Are there members on the Leafs board that are neither Dubas defenders nor Dubas "attackers"?

I'd like to have exchanges with those people. And I'd like to have exchanges with those people who see them as neither because they are neither.

Having to endure the constant insistence of some that a contrary position necessarily means a prejudicial position is just so tiring and "woke" and propagandized.

 

[FreeBird]

TJ Smith was the best young coach in LEAFS NATION T0 bad boy wonder didn't see it

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

TJ Smith was the best young coach in LEAFS NATION T0 bad boy wonder didn't see it

wow, even better than his brother DJ?

 

[Leaf Fans]

TJ Smith was the best young coach in LEAFS NATION T0 bad boy wonder didn't see it

It's DJ Smith. Dubas did though. He hired him. He also gave permission for Ottawa to hire him. Other teams want to poach our talent now. Seattle just did it with Hakstol and the Rangers did it with Lilley among others. We have a strong organization from the top down. Carbary may be the next one to move from the Leafs to an NHL job in 2 or 3 seasons. Wonderboy is not even in our organization.

 

[Racer88]

It's DJ Smith. Dubas did though. He hired him. He also gave permission for Ottawa to hire him. Other teams want to poach our talent now. Seattle just did it with Hakstol and the Rangers did it with Lilley among others. We have a strong organization from the top down. Carbary may be the next one to move from the Leafs to an NHL job in 2 or 3 seasons. Wonderboy is not even in our organization.

Yup and Maholtra is still here……….

 

[Menzinger]

your going about this argument totally wrong . its not the goals per game that is unsustainable. its the shooting percentage
Matthews isn't going to shoot 18% for his career its impossible. Either way even if you set it to 14 to 15% below his career average he is pretty much guaranteed to score above 50.

i see similarities with ovechkin aswell. Ovy had his best scoring (G/P) season at 22years old.



all that being said ........ who cares , these are all projections and matthews could surprise everyone and score 70 next year.

Though he may not exactly be far off. Stamkos currently sits at a 17% career sh% (Matthews at 16.2%). We shouldn't blink of he ends up a few more seasons above 18%

 

[Leaf Fans]

Yup and Maholtra is still here……….

Well, the powerplay fizzled out last year, and it was his first year with the team. Hopefully, he can fulfill the role he was hired to do. I suppose he can't do worse.

 

[Havoc]

Marner disappears yet leads the Leafs in playoff points the last 5 years. The man is an elite player and would fetch an kings random-some.

Agree on the kings ransom but you do a total disservice to Marner claiming he didn't disappear. You must not think that highly of him then because a Marner that shows up in the playoffs is not losing in round 1 or 2 today.

Marner has been a disappointment in the playoffs the past few seasons. What he's done 3+ years ago is not relevant to the last series or the one before. If you think Marner didn't disappear you clearly have no idea who Mitch Marner is and the talent he possesses.

 

[Racer88]

Well, the powerplay fizzled out last year, and it was his first year with the team. Hopefully, he can fulfill the role he was hired to do. I suppose he can't do worse.

Hopefully no worse. Lol

 

[sparxx87]

I actually agree with you here that Vasy is in a different category, mainly because he performs so much better than anyone else Tampa has thrown in the net over the last few years that's it's a markedly noticeable difference. What the Islanders have done is consistently dress above-average goaltending to go along with their solid D. Lehner was a Vezina finalist 3 years ago, Griess just left the team as having one of the highest save% in Islander goalies history and Varlamov came 5th in Vezina voting this year. With Sorokin looking like another ace pickup, I think their goaltending department deserves some praise. It's not just their good D.




Your defense of Freddy is admirable but I push back that Andersen was once a much better goalie. Along with the injection of the high powered young core, he was the reason for the Leafs early success in the Matthews era. From 2016 to the end of the 2019 season, the Leafs enjoyed the 5th best team save% in the league. This wasnt due to their team defensive structure I assure you. They were bottom 5 in almost every way we track team D. The problem was that a massive workhorse like Andersen can't keep that up forever once Freddy started to slip and inconsistency crept more and more into his game, it was offset by the growth of the young players and when the start of the 2019 season came around things really went downhill for Freddy. He was still capable of going on a run but shots started going right through him and he seemed slow to react. It's like the play you are referencing. If he quickly recognizes the situation and collects the puck behind the net, theres no chance....or if that useless plug Marincin (who replaced the Leafs best playoff D in Muzzin who went down with injury) just pressures the guy, nothing happens as well as the changing players would have had opposing players covered. Or Andersen could have just hugged the post properly as Marincin was picking daisies in front of the net covering anyways. Lots of things went wrong on that play but I wouldnt put it down as a classic example of anything.

Why do you think Babcock got fired? It's because that run and gun system doesn't work so well when team goaltending falls from top 5 to below average. Once Keefe came on board, team D trended towards the top 10 and made up for the slippage in net and the Leafs have actually given Andersen all the rope in the world the last year and a half really. Yet here are the stats with the Leafs since Keefe was hired:

Campbell:
GP: 28
Save%: .920

Hutchinson:
GP: 17
Save%: .905

Andersen:
GP: 59
Save%: .903

The Leafs have been plagued by injuries for much of Keefe's tenure (including to Andersen himself) that may be affecting these numbers but it doesnt look good. Big gamble by the Canes to throw that money and term on a guy north of 30 trending in that direction.



I dunno, maybe it's the level of importance that goaltending takes in the game that makes it so mysterious then. I actually think the Leafs are looking at the Islanders successful tandem system when they picked up Mrazek, a guy like Campbell who plays well but wears down with too big a load.

When looking at team D numbers since Keefe came on board, the Leafs and Isles match up well defensively. Having another .920 keeper on the roster instead of what Andersen brought over that time will do wonders as well as give Keefe a confident option coming off the bench in the playoffs.

Fewest shots against ranking since Keefe was hired (league wide):
Toronto: 10th in the NHL
NYI: 11th in the NHL

Fewest High Danger Chances Against ranking since Keefe was hired (league wide):
Toronto: 8th in the NHL
NYI: 13th in the NHL

Fewest Expected Goals Against ranking since Keefe was hired (league wide):
Toronto: 5th in the NHL
NYI: 9th in the NHL

These number's are skewed by the strange covid year of course but I'm very interested to see how things play out.

Greiss having the best numbers in franchise history doesn't seem suspicious to you?

It's not defense of Freddy, it's an honest assessment. I've been critical of him when he deserves it but I don't believe that to be the case very often. I mean, when you're ridiculous enough to blame Anderson for not coming out to stop the puck behind the net (didn't have time) or Marty Marincin for not attacking the puck (d men outnumbered supposed to be in the middle) when 4 players look like novice houseleaguers and hang them out to dry in a critical moment then we're probably not going to agree.... Seeing an egregious mistake that costs the team in a critical moment then blaming it on the goalie or the one d man who didn't would make you a terrible teammate. I question your experience in team sports if thats your idea of accountability.

Anderson in Carolina will be interesting. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he posted career high sv% behind much better team defense but your concerns about health and where that may have him trending is fair. Hard to say without more insight.

Babcock got fired because the team stopped playing for him. For better or for worse, that couldn't continue. I still say that performance against Pittsburgh in Kasmir Kaskisuo's NHL debut is the most pathetic performance I've ever seen by pro athletes.... the age of this core quitting on their coach before they'd won a damn thing should have been the first of many red flags. Many said this at the time.

FOH with those numbers. I've wasted my time engaging with you if you actually think the Leafs and Islanders are comparable defensively. These numbers literally miss far, far more data than they actually record... and when we consider how 'danger' of shots is calculated with no consideration of who, how, and what the landscape in front we then start to see how far these numbers can be skewed. They provide zero insight as to how or why the chance happened, which is what we need to know. Any attentive fan can identify a shot attempt.

There's an interesting case study to be had about theory vs delusion as it pertains to analytics in hockey. No matter how many times some are told that teams don't use these numbers, and that these numbers are a business for websites to make money off hockey fans, people still pump them like they're gospel. In reality, they're snake oil... Having you out here thinking a Sheldon Keefe team defending as well as Barry Trotz.

 

[Racer88]

Greiss having the best numbers in franchise history doesn't seem suspicious to you?

It's not defense of Freddy, it's an honest assessment. I've been critical of him when he deserves it but I don't believe that to be the case very often. I mean, when you're ridiculous enough to blame Anderson for not coming out to stop the puck behind the net (didn't have time) or Marty Marincin for not attacking the puck (d men outnumbered supposed to be in the middle) when 4 players look like novice houseleaguers and hang them out to dry in a critical moment then we're probably not going to agree.... Seeing an egregious mistake that costs the team in a critical moment then blaming it on the goalie or the one d man who didn't would make you a terrible teammate. I question your experience in team sports if thats your idea of accountability.

Anderson in Carolina will be interesting. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he posted career high sv% behind much better team defense but your concerns about health and where that may have him trending is fair. Hard to say without more insight.

Babcock got fired because the team stopped playing for him. For better or for worse, that couldn't continue. I still say that performance against Pittsburgh in Kasmir Kaskisuo's NHL debut is the most pathetic performance I've ever seen by pro athletes.... the age of this core quitting on their coach before they'd won a damn thing should have been the first of many red flags. Many said this at the time.

FOH with those numbers. I've wasted my time engaging with you if you actually think the Leafs and Islanders are comparable defensively. These numbers literally miss far, far more data than they actually record... and when we consider how 'danger' of shots is calculated with no consideration of who, how, and what the landscape in front we then start to see how far these numbers can be skewed. They provide zero insight as to how or why the chance happened, which is what we need to know. Any attentive fan can identify a shot attempt.

There's an interesting case study to be had about theory vs delusion as it pertains to analytics in hockey. No matter how many times some are told that teams don't use these numbers, and that these numbers are a business for websites to make money off hockey fans, people still pump them like they're gospel. In reality, they're snake oil... Having you out here thinking a Sheldon Keefe team defending as well as Barry Trotz.

Ya…….what he said

 

[Blowfish]

Are there members on the Leafs board that are neither Dubas defenders nor Dubas "attackers"?

I'd like to have exchanges with those people. And I'd like to have exchanges with those people who see them as neither because they are neither.

Having to endure the constant insistence of some that a contrary position necessarily means a prejudicial position is just so tiring and "woke" and propagandized.

Fans from other teams otherwise everyone here will have an opinion one way or the other.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Are there members on the Leafs board that are neither Dubas defenders nor Dubas "attackers"?

I'd like to have exchanges with those people. And I'd like to have exchanges with those people who see them as neither because they are neither.

Having to endure the constant insistence of some that a contrary position necessarily means a prejudicial position is just so tiring and "woke" and propagandized.

I'd say I'm both actually. I defend Dubas when people say he's the worst GM in Leaf history but I don't understand those people who seem to think every move he makes is golden.

There's an interesting case study to be had about theory vs delusion as it pertains to analytics in hockey. No matter how many times some are told that teams don't use these numbers, and that these numbers are a business for websites to make money off hockey fans, people still pump them like they're gospel. In reality, they're snake oil... Having you out here thinking a Sheldon Keefe team defending as well as Barry Trotz.

Well said. You know I asked the fellow you're responding to here how he feels the Leafs played in the last two elimination games and he's yet to answer (unless I missed it, but I don't think I did). Could be because I said forget the numbers for a moment, just tell me what you think.

People will start in about how the eye test sucks, sure I get it. But the eye test isn't useless either and there are some cases where the numbers are so far removed from what they eyes see, that you just know the numbers are off. That's my opinion anyway and pretty sure I'm right. And I'm still waiting for someone to share the opinion based on the eye test that the Leafs played well in the last two (or last four) elimination games. One poster responded with numbers showing that we outshot the opposition, sigh.

 

[ottomaddox]

So what's the latest on Kyle Dubas?

 

[Gary Nylund]

So what's the latest on Kyle Dubas?

Apparently he's "new and really improved" (see thread title). I dunno though, I'm thinking he needs a new plan but he's stubbornly sticking to the old plan that's not working.

 

[sparxx87]

I'd say I'm both actually. I defend Dubas when people say he's the worst GM in Leaf history but I don't understand those people who seem to think every move he makes is golden.



Well said. You know I asked the fellow you're responding to here how he feels the Leafs played in the last two elimination games and he's yet to answer (unless I missed it, but I don't think I did). Could be because I said forget the numbers for a moment, just tell me what you think.

People will start in about how the eye test sucks, sure I get it. But the eye test isn't useless either and there are some cases where the num of bers are so far removed from what they eyes see, that you just know the numbers are off. That's my opinion anyway and pretty sure I'm right. And I'm still waiting for someone to share the opinion based on the eye test that the Leafs played well in the last two (or last four) elimination games. One poster responded with numbers showing that we outshot the opposition, sigh.

The disconnect seems to come with the idea that you and I could watch a game and give a comprehensive analysis of everything that happened which obviously isn't possible... but if we're on staff and do diligent work in the video room, focus on specific player/area, we can paint a far clearer picture than any block of these stats that literally miss more data than they record.

It's really changed around here. Used to be so many more interesting and insightful posters who understood this is art. I'd enjoy considering the theory and philosophy of others as to the how and why because theres more than one way to win... but at some point the numbers section spilled over with a "numbers don't lie" attitude and they've been spreading like a disease ever since.

Interesting to see these stats people put in their place in the basketball or football communities vs in hockey, where they could literally become the GM of your favorite team.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The disconnect seems to come with the idea that you and I could watch a game and give a comprehensive analysis of everything that happened which obviously isn't possible... but if we're on staff and do diligent work in the video room, focus on specific player/area, we can paint a far clearer picture than any block of these stats that literally miss more data than they record.

It's really changed around here. Used to be so many more interesting and insightful posters who understood this is art. I'd enjoy considering the theory and philosophy of others as to the how and why because theres more than one way to win... but at some point the numbers section spilled over with a "numbers don't lie" attitude and they've been spreading like a disease ever since.

Interesting to see these stats people put in their place in the basketball or football communities vs in hockey, where they could literally become the GM of your favorite team.

Exactly this. Discussions here would much more interesting if more people acknowledged that nobody here has flawless opinions. Nobody who bases their opinions on the eye test sees everything, and nobody who worships numbers get it all right either because while number don't lie, they never tell the full story and the people who input the numbers make mistakes.

 

[sparxx87]

Exactly this. Discussions here would much more interesting if more people acknowledged that nobody here has flawless opinions. Nobody who bases their opinions on the eye test sees everything, and nobody who worships numbers get it all right either because while number don't lie, they never tell the full story and the people who input the numbers make mistakes.

"like"

Add that anything beyond the black and white (goals, assists etc) is subjectively collected, and that numbers and statistics aren't the same. Numbers may not lie, but statistics can mislead or be completely manipulated to paint a different picture and we see it all the time... Unfortunately there's even moderators who participate in the foolishness so it's unlikely to change.

 

[zeke]

Greiss having the best numbers in franchise history doesn't seem suspicious to you?

It's not defense of Freddy, it's an honest assessment. I've been critical of him when he deserves it but I don't believe that to be the case very often. I mean, when you're ridiculous enough to blame Anderson for not coming out to stop the puck behind the net (didn't have time) or Marty Marincin for not attacking the puck (d men outnumbered supposed to be in the middle) when 4 players look like novice houseleaguers and hang them out to dry in a critical moment then we're probably not going to agree.... Seeing an egregious mistake that costs the team in a critical moment then blaming it on the goalie or the one d man who didn't would make you a terrible teammate. I question your experience in team sports if thats your idea of accountability.

Anderson in Carolina will be interesting. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he posted career high sv% behind much better team defense but your concerns about health and where that may have him trending is fair. Hard to say without more insight.

Babcock got fired because the team stopped playing for him. For better or for worse, that couldn't continue. I still say that performance against Pittsburgh in Kasmir Kaskisuo's NHL debut is the most pathetic performance I've ever seen by pro athletes.... the age of this core quitting on their coach before they'd won a damn thing should have been the first of many red flags. Many said this at the time.

FOH with those numbers. I've wasted my time engaging with you if you actually think the Leafs and Islanders are comparable defensively. These numbers literally miss far, far more data than they actually record... and when we consider how 'danger' of shots is calculated with no consideration of who, how, and what the landscape in front we then start to see how far these numbers can be skewed. They provide zero insight as to how or why the chance happened, which is what we need to know. Any attentive fan can identify a shot attempt.

There's an interesting case study to be had about theory vs delusion as it pertains to analytics in hockey. No matter how many times some are told that teams don't use these numbers, and that these numbers are a business for websites to make money off hockey fans, people still pump them like they're gospel. In reality, they're snake oil... Having you out here thinking a Sheldon Keefe team defending as well as Barry Trotz.

So even though the Keefe leafs post better defensive numbers across the board, you refuse to believe they're good defensively?

Why, exactly? What are you basing your opinion on?

Do you have any actual reasons beyond "lol leafs sukz!" ??

 

[Dekes For Days]

Anderson in Carolina will be interesting. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he posted career high sv% behind much better team defense

Carolina has worse team defense.

Babcock got fired because the team stopped playing for him.

Babcock got fired because Babcock was bad, all on his own.

I've wasted my time engaging with you if you actually think the Leafs and Islanders are comparable defensively.

Leafs and Islanders have factually been comparable defensively over the past year and a half.

 

[Deebo]

Apparently he's "new and really improved" (see thread title). I dunno though, I'm thinking he needs a new plan but he's stubbornly sticking to the old plan that's not working.

I think the title is suggesting that thread is new and improved, not Dubas himself.

After reading the a few posts in the thread, that doesn't appear to be true either.

 

[Dekes For Days]

But the eye test isn't useless either and there are some cases where the numbers are so far removed from what they eyes see, that you just know the numbers are off.

The numbers are rarely different from what the eyes see though. If your eyes are seeing different, then that sounds like an issue with your eye test. If two eye tests are seeing something different, then clearly the eye test isn't as infallible as you like to pretend. So the question then becomes, who is right?

Is it person A, who has his personal eye test (and all of the biases that come with it) and nothing else?
Or is it person B, who has his personal eye test, and every single statistic supporting what his eyes saw?

I think the answer is pretty clear.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think the title is suggesting that thread is new and improved, not Dubas himself.

After reading the a few posts in the thread, that doesn't appear to be true either.

I know, I was kidding.

Predictable. And agreed.