The New and really Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[killer1980]

Love the fact he ditched the glasses at the preseason presser to make us think he's different this year. He has to change a lot more than his eyewear to convince me he knows what he is doing. Also, the players, except Tavares, all talked about themselves. There was no regard for the fans that they clearly care nothing about. Let's hope when they tank early, they clean house this year and don't ride out the contracts of the slugs they now have.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Dekes For Days]

Is there even such a stat or are we talking about high danger scoring chances?

Both chances and shots are tracked. Leafs were 5th in scoring chance shots against, and Islanders were 6th. Leafs were 5th in high danger shots against, and Islanders were 3rd.

 

[Zybalto]

What is a high danger shot? Who decides and how consistently are these decisions made? Is there even such a stat or are we talking about high danger scoring chances? Or are these tracked separately? Not trying to give you a hard time here and I appreciate your posts and how much thought you put into them. Just saying there's a fair bit of ambiguity in these stats.

A good example of skewed stats was the empty net Tavares missed against CLB. I was told that this was a high danger scoring chance and I was saying that the CLB goalies weren't THAT good, and that was I thought an example of where the stats flattered them - a high danger chance for sure, but the goalie had nothing to do with the fact that no goal was scored on the play.

High Danger scoring chances and High danger shots that hit the net are two different things. Theres really too much to try and write down but there is a difference.

For example, in the Columbus series, the Leafs had 61 high danger chances for but only 44 chances that hit the net (Tavares would be a missed chance here) and only 4 that actually were goals. The reason that goal number was so low was a mix of poor finishing and great goaltending, a stat that is universally considered a luck stat, PDO. The fact Columbus set the playoff save record the very next game showed what kind of zone they were in (against the eventual cup champs no less).

 

[Canadian Finn]

Why would another team trade you a marner equivalent making 3 million less?

A team could realistically trade you a lessor player making less and perhaps throw in some other asset(s).

because marner is overpaid.

his equivalent makes less money.

 

[Gary Nylund]

High Danger scoring chances and High danger shots that hit the net are two different things. Theres really too much to try and write down but there is a difference.

For example, in the Columbus series, the Leafs had 61 high danger chances for but only 44 chances that hit the net (Tavares would be a missed chance here) and only 4 that actually were goals. The reason that goal number was so low was a mix of poor finishing and great goaltending, a stat that is universally considered a luck stat, PDO. The fact Columbus set the playoff save record the very next game showed what kind of zone they were in (against the eventual cup champs no less).

I think our finishing has been pretty bad in recent playoffs. I don't have any numbers to back that up so take it FWIW, not sure I agree with calling it bad luck though.

 

[ITM]

Fans from other teams otherwise everyone here will have an opinion one way or the other.

Well, that's the goal, but it's not true against the criticism. There are (far too many) people who "argue" only according to tribal allegiance and who will all but admit that their participation here isn't primarily for the club, but against "other" Leafs fans who don't sound EXACTLY like them.

As for fans from other teams...You might have something there. And by there, let it be known, it really does look greener over "there".

I'm talking to you Hockeytown.

 

[Zybalto]

I think our finishing has been pretty bad in recent playoffs. I don't have any numbers to back that up so take it FWIW, not sure I agree with calling it bad luck though.

Oh it has been, at least when compared to the regular season. Besides some obvious reasons of math, the reason to call it luck is like looking at the Price save on Spezza. The chance is so small that Price would save that shot but he somehow did. That save and the inexplicable Tavares miss are a perfect example of the kind of the luck the team has had. I mean, Tavares gets that over and probably makes it 9/10 times.....and they've somehow managed to be the first round team most affected by injury too. I don't have the data but I'm guessing posts hit are up there as well.

Remember that time the Leafs got a bounce in a series to win a game? Remember that softie the opposing goalie gave up in an elimination game? Remember when that depth player coughed up the puck while under no pressure to hand the Leafs a win? I don't.....and the Leafs have badly outshot the other team in almost every big game in the playoffs. It's maddening really.....as is the criticism of Matthews who was, hands down, the most dominant force on either team in the last series.

 

[Gabriel426]

Oh it has been, at least when compared to the regular season. Besides some obvious reasons of math, the reason to call it luck is like looking at the Price save on Spezza. The chance is so small that Price would save that shot but he somehow did. That save and the inexplicable Tavares miss are a perfect example of the kind of the luck the team has had. I mean, Tavares gets that over and probably makes it 9/10 times.....and they've somehow managed to be the first round team most affected by injury too. I don't have the data but I'm guessing posts hit are up there as well.

Remember that time the Leafs got a bounce in a series to win a game? Remember that softie the opposing goalie gave up in an elimination game? Remember when that depth player coughed up the puck while under no pressure to hand the Leafs a win? I don't.....and the Leafs have badly outshot the other team in almost every big game in the playoffs. It's maddening really.....as is the criticism of Matthews who was, hands down, the most dominant force on either team in the last series.

I think scoring 3 goals while without conceding an empty net goals in 5 minutes is pretty lucky.
I think it is a little of both luck and bad finishing. Then again, can a team really be unlucky three years in a row?
Also, if relying on a bounce is the difference between winning a series or not, thats not a contending team.
If this version of the Leafs wants to win a Cup, they need a lot more than a bounce here and there.
All the players need to play better, a lot better, and thats start with the top and trickle down to the bottom.

 

[zeke]

Touche. There's a lot of nuance to this conversation but I'd also include that the 'why' is always debatable, too. The number of shots is almost black and white, but why they happened and how dangerous they were are open for debate.

Goals are facts, but there's a number of different ways to determine good from bad. Some are good defense and goaltending getting beat by great offense, others are paying for mistakes... Again, all things you need to intently watch for to determine. Stats aren't answering any of my questions as to how and why which are the two most important factors in determining how likely they are to be repeated.

All this work just to deny the obvious, despite all evidence we have.

 

[egd27]

What is a high danger shot? Who decides and how consistently are these decisions made?

And who records the position of the shot?
When do they do it?
Is it someone different in each rink?
How do they ensure there is no home bias like there can be in hits (or even simple shot counts)?
How is it determined if the shot is from the "edge" of the HD area, is it in or out?

So many questions.

 

[zeke]

And who records the position of the shot?
When do they do it?
Is it someone different in each rink?
How do they ensure there is no home bias like there can be in hits (or even simple shot counts)?
How is it determined if the shot is from the "edge" of the HD area, is it in or out?

So many questions.

Maybe all the stats in every arena are biased towards the leafs.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Remember that time the Leafs got a bounce in a series to win a game? Remember that softie the opposing goalie gave up in an elimination game? Remember when that depth player coughed up the puck while under no pressure to hand the Leafs a win? I don't.....and the Leafs have badly outshot the other team in almost every big game in the playoffs. It's maddening really.....as is the criticism of Matthews who was, hands down, the most dominant force on either team in the last series.

But have they outplayed the other team? I asked you this before, I don't believe you ever answered so I'll try again. Forget the stats for a moment, what was your impression of how we played in the series deciding games against CLB and MTL. My impression was that in both games (and especially the MTL game) we played uninspiring hockey, it looked like game 7 of a 7 game road trip against AZ where we just weren't um, I'll steal a phrase from Marner and say we didn't look like we were "engaged". The fact that that can happen in the most important game of the season completely blows my mind and is my #1 concern about this team. And IMHO, we certainly did NOT out play the other team in either game. Anyhow, just curious as to how you saw it.

I think scoring 3 goals while without conceding an empty net goals in 5 minutes is pretty lucky.
I think it is a little of both luck and bad finishing. Then again, can a team really be unlucky three years in a row?
Also, if relying on a bounce is the difference between winning a series or not, thats not a contending team.
If this version of the Leafs wants to win a Cup, they need a lot more than a bounce here and there.
All the players need to play better, a lot better, and thats start with the top and trickle down to the bottom.

Excellent point!

Good question!

Agreed. All this talk about luck ... after so many years of failure, I'm not buying it.

And who records the position of the shot?
When do they do it?
Is it someone different in each rink?
How do they ensure there is no home bias like there can be in hits (or even simple shot counts)?
How is it determined if the shot is from the "edge" of the HD area, is it in or out?

So many questions.

Exactly. I mean I guess you could say that all that stuff evens out over time and that's valid to a point. However over the course of one playoff series, those numbers mean very little to me and our results vs the stats over the last few years is a big reason why I feel that way.

 

[egd27]

Maybe all the stats in every arena are biased towards the leafs.

You have that many relatives working in NHL arenas? Nice

 

[The CyNick]

He's done a ton of good things IMO. Trades especially, Muzzin and Campbell for what we gave up is maybe my favourite.

Muzzin trade was very meh. High price to get a decent but not high end D man. Campbell trade itself was good, but Dubas has blown tons of assets on the position unnecessarily.

Other trades have been awful. Marleau. Kadri. Foligno. And those came at big price tags.

 

[NinjaKick]

advanced stats can be a good tool to support the eye test. no doubt... relied on exclusively though, and you get fractions of the picture. whereas if you watch the game, you get the full picture.
just my 2 cents.

 

[ULF_55]

because marner is overpaid.

his equivalent makes less money.

Another team would trade you an equivalent player making much less because marner is overpaid?

Not sure how this makes any sense ... what is in it for the other team to trade an equivalent player making less?

 

[The CyNick]

advanced stats can be a good tool to support the eye test. no doubt... relied on exclusively though, and you get fractions of the picture. whereas if you watch the game, you get the full picture.
just my 2 cents.

If you watch enough hockey you quickly find advanced stats to be useless. From my experience the people who watch the least amount of hockey rely the most on advanced stats. If you watch every player regularly you just develop a mental chart of who is better.

 

[zeke]

Why do you guys keep calling goals and shots "advanced stats"?

 

[NinjaKick]

Why do you guys keep calling goals and shots "advanced stats"?

no one in this thread even said that

 

[zeke]

no one in this thread even said that

We just had a whole stream of posts mocking advanced stats in response to the clear regular old traditional stats. Weird.

 

[NinjaKick]

We just had a whole stream of posts mocking advanced stats in response to the clear regular old traditional stats. Weird.

I don't care if they were mocked. no one said goals and shots were advanced stats but you

 

[zeke]

I don't care if they were mocked. no one said goals and shots were advanced stats but you

Then why is everyone talking about advanced stats all of a sudden?

 

[Racer88]

And who records the position of the shot?
When do they do it?
Is it someone different in each rink?
How do they ensure there is no home bias like there can be in hits (or even simple shot counts)?
How is it determined if the shot is from the "edge" of the HD area, is it in or out?

So many questions.

Exactly and that’s why stats like high danger shots, expected goals are pure nonsense and subjective just like shots on net some nights and at some rinks

 

[weems]

But have they outplayed the other team? I asked you this before, I don't believe you ever answered so I'll try again. Forget the stats for a moment, what was your impression of how we played in the series deciding games against CLB and MTL. My impression was that in both games (and especially the MTL game) we played uninspiring hockey, it looked like game 7 of a 7 game road trip against AZ where we just weren't um, I'll steal a phrase from Marner and say we didn't look like we were "engaged". The fact that that can happen in the most important game of the season completely blows my mind and is my #1 concern about this team. And IMHO, we certainly did NOT out play the other team in either game. Anyhow, just curious as to how you saw it.



Excellent point!

Good question!

Agreed. All this talk about luck ... after so many years of failure, I'm not buying it.



Exactly. I mean I guess you could say that all that stuff evens out over time and that's valid to a point. However over the course of one playoff series, those numbers mean very little to me and our results vs the stats over the last few years is a big reason why I feel that way.

I would definitely say we outplayed those teams but there also needs to be some context added in that both teams were more concerned with sitting back and playing almost a prevent type defense than pushing the game forward and trying to dictate.

This is what's somewhat concerning and yet to be determined. Do we have the personal to consistently overcome gameplans that involve playing safe, suffocating styles and getting timely saves from their goalie?