The New and really Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[ToneDog]

Wait. what's going on in here?

Are we gonna start talking about how Matthews got lucky he won the Rocket with his regression from 47 to 41 goals?
This is all jokes in here right?

Full marks for winning the Rocket. He was clearly the best goal scorer in the NHL last year but I doubt he puts up 0.79 G/GP (64 goals) playing against all 31 teams this year. I doubt McDavid puts up 1.88 P/GP (154 points) as well.

 

[egd27]

Shouldn't everyone expect that as a minimum now that Dubas has removed the stench of Lou's incompetence ?
It is his team now right? No more blaming Lou.

Well when you put it like that.

 

[egd27]

Though it's not as if Dubas' had any choice in that matter. His team could only perform within the structures set by the league - which one season involved limiting the number of GP and the other both GP and opponents. Seems unfair to dismiss results completely due to things beyond the control of the team.

He holds the record in a 56 game season against only Canadian teams. Full marks for doing so well in the situation that was presented.

He now has another shot at setting the club record in a full 82 season while playing the entire league. I hope the team does so well.

 

[Zybalto]

Full marks for winning the Rocket. He was clearly the best goal scorer in the NHL last year but I doubt he puts up 0.79 G/GP (64 goals) playing against all 31 teams this year. I doubt McDavid puts up 1.88 P/GP (154 points) as well.

He probably would have had an even higher pace if he had stayed healthy too.

I think he'll get 50-60(top end) this year if that happens.

 

[Zybalto]

He holds the record in a 56 game season against only Canadian teams. Full marks for doing so well in the situation that was presented.

He now has another shot at setting the club record in a full 82 season while playing the entire league. I hope the team does so well.

I think they are set up to do just that.

Over last two seasons that the biggest problems really have been health, the jekle and hyde PP and goaltending....and the biggest problem with goaltending was the inconsistency of Andersen.

I cant see the PP with this lineup not getting better and more reliable, we should be healthier based on pure chance and if Mrazek is just merely above average it's a huge win.

 

[diceman934]

Unfortunately there's a cap, which makes a declining Tavares a tough sell.

That's the problem. The guys who know hockey know Marner disappears when it counts. A garbage franchise may trade for him to get a perceived star in the lineup, but a well run franchise looking to win a Cup wouldn't pay top dollar to trade for him. But it's all hypothetical, so it's just one man's opinion vs another.

Marner disappears yet leads the Leafs in playoff points the last 5 years. The man is an elite player and would fetch an kings random-some.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Wait. what's going on in here?

Are we gonna start talking about how Matthews got lucky he won the Rocket with his regression from 47 to 41 goals?
This is all jokes in here right?

No. You have to go completely off topic and mention Lou in your post.

So, for example you could say:

Matthews got lucky he won the Rocket with his regression from 47 to 41 goals. It's Lou's fault of course.

That would suffice.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Marner disappears yet leads the Leafs in playoff points the last 5 years. The man is an elite player and would fetch an kings random-some.

How many points does Marner have in the past 3 playoffs?

 

[ToneDog]

How many points does Marner have in the past 3 playoffs?

19 GP 2 G 10 A 12 P -4 at least 2 over the glass penalties

 

[Dayjobdave]

I really like the approach the team is taking to talent development. Other than trading our firsts, I’ve liked a lot of the kids they have drafted. I hope that he gets to stick around because I want to see if it can work. I believe it can.

 

[Dave92]

Marner disappears yet leads the Leafs in playoff points the last 5 years. The man is an elite player and would fetch an kings random-some.

How about we just look at the last two years. Where he's been the highest paid winger in the playoffs.

Only 3 forwards have been on the team for 5 years

 

[Racer88]

Ignoring shootouts doesn't remove any games.

It ignores the point gained by a shootout win and when we are comparing points under different GM’s it has to be there as it’s part of the game and part of the result

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Full marks for winning the Rocket. He was clearly the best goal scorer in the NHL last year but I doubt he puts up 0.79 G/GP (64 goals) playing against all 31 teams this year. I doubt McDavid puts up 1.88 P/GP (154 points) as well.

Where does this notion come from that it will be harder for him to score goals against the rest of the league? Matthews is sneaky good with an unusual release and is deceptively quick. If anything, playing against teams that don't see him very often should benefit him since we've seen him take goalies and defenders by surprise. Teams that see him 12 times in a condensed schedule presumably get a good look at him and learn how to defend against him.

 

[Pookie]

Shouldn't everyone expect that as a minimum now that Dubas has removed the stench of Lou's incompetence ?
It is his team now right? No more blaming Lou.

Now.

no wait......................................... now!

 

[diceman934]

How about we just look at the last two years. Where he's been the highest paid winger in the playoffs.

Only 3 forwards have been on the team for 5 years

Lol. He is playing at 100 pts winger. How many of them are there in the NHL.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Now.

no wait......................................... now!

Haha. True Dat.

I've heard the same thing for 3 years running now.

 

[CDN24]

We were also one of the best defensive teams in the first round led by arguably the best defensive line in the first round, the Matthews/Marner line. It sure makes things easier to stop the puck when way more shots/chances are going the other way. Measured over the entire playoffs, we had the best defensive team out of all 16 (although I'd like to stick to the first round)

There are always multiple teams that fall in the first round for the reasons the Leafs did. The 1st place pens only lost to the Islanders because of the massive difference in net. Team save% in that series was 92.33% to 88.83% while the Pens had the better of the play and were also one of the best defensive teams in the first round. Thats how important goaltending is. Jarry was a disaster. You switch the goalies and the Isles dont make it out of the first IMO.The Oilers were a hyper version of goaltending difference and depth issues but that was more on their keeper being worse than Campbell though.......it didnt mean McDavid and Drai wernt two of the best players in the first round and Crosby had great underlying numbers too.....but it still remains he only has 5 points the past two playoffs due to facing Price and Varly playing lights out back to back while his keeping was subpar. On the surface it looks like Crosby played like crap though. He didnt.

It's true, gotta look at the complete picture.

Context matters, they were going up against Tatar-/Evans- Danault - Gallagher . That line put up 3 points against Toronto. Against The Jets after Tatar benched and Evans hurt in game one it was Evans/Lehkonen- Danault-Gallagher and they put up 8 points against jets. The lehkonen-Danault-Gallagher line put up 3 points against Vegas and 3 against Tampa.

Its not so much that Leafs were shutting them down as that line was only playing prevent and not actively trying to generate offense. Everyone but the Jets "shut" them down.

 

[ITM]

I agree 100% that Campbell was not the problem last playoffs but some posters claim that the Leafs dominated the Habs but just got beat by opposition goaltending. Some of them claim it has been the issue the last 3 playoffs.

Our fanbase has a problem that's bigger than this iteration of our club. Think back to how many times the same argument is rehashed. It's not as young as the most recent series and it's older than the Columbus series. Irrespective of the opponent, if the club doesn't get past the first round, there's a scorched Earth reaction. Forget Boston and Washington being veteran ladened and decorated. We're supposed to win and (simply) because we didn't, management, coaches, etc...to all points of contrary minutiae are to blame.

Montreal was a legitimate w...t...f. Three GAMES -- that's NINE periods -- for our offense to score one more goal than the other team. That's real. That's on the (now justifiably) usual suspects. But the past...questionable to impossible with respect to the same blame game model.

How on Earth anyone can blame Jack Campbell...If there was a legitimate way to vote fans out of the fanbase, that level of moronic insistence against fact should require a put of the torch moment and a boot to the arse.

 

[Zybalto]

Context matters, they were going up against Tatar-/Evans- Danault - Gallagher . That line put up 3 points against Toronto. Against The Jets after Tatar benched and Evans hurt in game one it was Evans/Lehkonen- Danault-Gallagher and they put up 8 points against jets. The lehkonen-Danault-Gallagher line put up 3 points against Vegas and 3 against Tampa.

Its not so much that Leafs were shutting them down as that line was only playing prevent and not actively trying to generate offense. Everyone but the Jets "shut" them down.

Context does matter. First things first, remember that softie Campbell gave up in game 7?..Those were the 3 points that line got. The reason you have "Tatar/" in front of Evans is that the Habs first line was getting wrecked so badly that Keefe didnt even work around the match up and the Habs had to blow the line up and ultimately benched Tatar.

I mean, you really think Danault changed his two-way game to get caved in in almost every way and just hope Price would start his Cinderella run playing Vezina level goaltending all the way to the final and Matthews would just end up hitting multiple posts with all the chances he got? You think he would want to get dominated on the boards worse than he ever has been in his career and end up with probably the most brutal 7 game stretch of analytics in his career?


Matthews ranking out of the 176 forwards with at least 50 minutes played in the first round this year:

Total Shots: 2nd highest out of 176
Shots/60: 8th highest out of 176

Individual Scoring Chances: 3rd highest out of 176
Individual Scoring Chances/60: 5th highest out of 176

Individual Expected Goals: 3rd highest out of 176
IndividualExpected Goals/60: 7th highest out of 176



Price going beast mode + a stupid amount of posts/near misses kept the injured Matthews from improving on his 5 points in 7 games.

Combine those numbers with his solid 5v5 underlying defensive metrics:

Goals against/60: 9th fewest out of 166

Overall Takeaways: 1st out of 176 by a mile
Overall Takeaways/60: 1st out of 176 by a mile

Best giveaway to takeaway ratio in the first round.



Here are Danault's 5v5 numbers against the Leafs:
CF%: 48.26
SF%: 40.10
SCF%: 39.82
HDCF%: 43.12
xGF%: 34.89
GF%: 0% (-1.59/60 goals against)


Danault 5v5 the rest of the playoffs:
CF%: 47.12
SF%: 52.13
SCF%: 48.35
HDCF%: 49.51
xGF%: 55.21
GF%: 57.03

Those numbers the rest of the way against the top players on great offensive teams (Jets/Knights/Bolts) are steller.

Matthews was by far the toughest matchup for Danault in the playoffs. He did a far better job against the other teams but in the end Price made a number of players good players look bad and players that were going through rough patches look better than what they were. When your goalie is standing on his head and you are winning, everyone looks pretty good I suppose. The Habs got a little of their own medicine in that Bolts series though as once you meet your match in net, the better team is going to come through.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If you play a game and are down 3-0 with 4minutes left would you say you played a good game?

There's more to the game that was played than just the final score, but that's also not the final score. The final score was 4-3 Leafs. The series was close.

 

[ToneDog]

Where does this notion come from that it will be harder for him to score goals against the rest of the league? Matthews is sneaky good with an unusual release and is deceptively quick. If anything, playing against teams that don't see him very often should benefit him since we've seen him take goalies and defenders by surprise. Teams that see him 12 times in a condensed schedule presumably get a good look at him and learn how to defend against him.

Who was the last player to score at a rate of 0.79 G/GP ?? Every team in the league knows Matty. He is not going to surprise anybody. Not saying Matty can't do it but I'd be willing to bet that he does not score more than 55 in an 82 game schedule.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Who was the last player to score at a rate of 0.79 G/GP ?? Every team in the league knows Matty. He is not going to surprise anybody. Not saying Matty can't do it but I'd be willing to bet that he does not score more than 55 in an 82 game schedule.

Just saying, there's no way playing against the same 6 teams explains it. We'll see what happens.

 

[Ashdown2]

Who was the last player to score at a rate of 0.79 G/GP ?? Every team in the league knows Matty. He is not going to surprise anybody. Not saying Matty can't do it but I'd be willing to bet that he does not score more than 55 in an 82 game schedule.

your going about this argument totally wrong . its not the goals per game that is unsustainable. its the shooting percentage
Matthews isn't going to shoot 18% for his career its impossible. Either way even if you set it to 14 to 15% below his career average he is pretty much guaranteed to score above 50.

i see similarities with ovechkin aswell. Ovy had his best scoring (G/P) season at 22years old.



all that being said ........ who cares , these are all projections and matthews could surprise everyone and score 70 next year.

 

[zeke]

Matthews isn't going to shoot 18% for his career its impossible.

His career shooting percentage is 16.2%. Over the last 2 seasons it's 17.2%.

 

[Sypher04]

Matthews isn't going to shoot 18% for his career its impossible.

His average shooting percentage right now through 5 years is 16% so not really that far off. He’s already played more than enough for that to normalize so to speak, so I don’t really see any reason to think he can’t maintain around what he’s shooting. Of course, if his wrist holds up for his career that is.