The New and Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[Racer88]

Not really, just an opinion. I can envision AM wanting to be in the US and closer to his family, and I see Nylander's old man instilling the same "money comes first" attitude that he displayed.

Yup and now that we see that Marner is simply a me first mercenary as well who knows where he will end up

 

[Racer88]

I know it's a pay sight, the title of the article speaks loudly.

I sure hope they are not shocked by a decline in leafs fan optimism. They have done nothing to change that

 

[Dreakmur]

Truth is some Leaf fans haven't gotten over the collapse to the Habs (I have). The only thing that will change that will be a good start to the season.

I’m not sure that would change many minds either. I know I won’t be fooled again.

I can’t believe in this team until they win in the playoffs.

 

[Trapper]

Truth is some Leaf fans haven't gotten over the collapse to the Habs (I have). The only thing that will change that will be a good start to the season.

This is a really big year.
The fate of the Shanaplan, Dubas and the core could be on the line.

They will be under a fine microscope and failure could bring change. It will also lead to the start of a new season where it is the last year before the Matthews NMC.

I expect the same regular season from Matthews/Marner we’ve seen. The difference will be how good are the other teams around us and how is our killer instinct come playoff time? Which again, leads to the first part. The regular season isn’t under the gun.

 

[justashadowof]

If you think uniformity of thought would increase activity, you're sadly mistaken. I will concede that individuals can ruin sites. There was this medical support group site I started a little less than 20 years ago. Controls of it exchanged hands several times. It was a lovely place for years but in the past couple of years some wicked individual took it over and began posting political garbage, now no one goes there any longer. Completely ruined.

 

[ottomaddox]

I’m not sure that would change many minds either. I know I won’t be fooled again.

I can’t believe in this team until they win in the playoffs.

All my years as a leaf fan I watched every playoff game. Last May was the first time I've tuned them out before the series was over. It was just so disheartening watching TOR roll over in game 6 that I didn't watch game 7. Dubas, The Big 4, and Keefe's coaching is enough to make me care less now.

 

[zeke]

All my years as a leaf fan I watched every playoff game. Last May was the first time I've tuned them out before the series was over. It was just so disheartening watching TOR roll over in game 6 that I didn't watch game 7. Dubas, The Big 4, and Keefe's coaching is enough to make me care less now.

Didn't watch game 7 but spent all summer yelling about it on the internet.

Hmm.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Yeah so this was never about the coaching strategy I see.

You have a bone to pick with me for some strange weirdly personal reason lol.

Not biting.

Answer my initial question, or again, make like a tree...

"Schtick"

Keeping the shtick going -- good job!

You want me to answer a really stupid question that has Keefe being a human zombie as its premise? I'll get right on it.

The stats always clearly show what the leafs did wrong tho.

Your shtick mixes well with his.

 

[yubbers]

All my years as a leaf fan I watched every playoff game. Last May was the first time I've tuned them out before the series was over. It was just so disheartening watching TOR roll over in game 6 that I didn't watch game 7. Dubas, The Big 4, and Keefe's coaching is enough to make me care less now.

Thankfully I didn't watch at all last season. I was done after the Babs firing season. I can't believe Dubas made it out of last year with his job. So sadly another year I'll have no interest in my leafs. The management, therefore leadership is being pathetic. This team has no chance of doing anything until we get real leaders.

 

[Menzinger]

Burke is a keynote speaker at MITs conference on statistics. Please stop slandering the man’s name.

Just because people who played and understand the game at a higher level (it’s called hockey IQ for a reason) don’t weight it as heavily doesn’t mean they’re being ignored. Also nobody knows for sure how heavily someone like Sakic or Brisebois weights them


MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Speaker | Brian Burke

Eh, Burke attends these every once in a while but basically says the same talking points every time - that he's not a fan of analytics.

I'm not really sure I'd say that attendance is a evidence he's evaluating them in good faith ect.

I remember a Nonis interview that's always stuck with me (think it was on the eve of the 2013 draft).where he flat out said ownership had set aside a budget for stays analysis and he could never think of a way to spend it.

 

[sparxx87]

Eh, Burke attends these every once in a while but basically says the same talking points every time - that he's not a fan of analytics.

I'm not really sure I'd say that attendance is a evidence he's evaluating them in good faith ect.

I remember a Nonis interview that's always stuck with me (think it was on the eve of the 2013 draft).where he flat out said ownership had set aside a budget for stays analysis and he could never think of a way to spend it.

And you think someone with his education (he’s a lawyer, in case you forgot) and his professional experience would attend an event like that to dismiss analytics without doing his homework on them?

Seriously?

The bullshit level on this board is next level. Interesting how some will talk out their ass but then have the nerve to tell others their opinions are speculative.

 

[zeke]

And you think someone with his education (he’s a lawyer, in case you forgot) and his professional experience would attend an event like that to dismiss analytics without doing his homework on them?

Seriously?

Obviously yes. Have you ever heard of Brian Burke at all?

 

[Stephen]

Eh, Burke attends these every once in a while but basically says the same talking points every time - that he's not a fan of analytics.

I'm not really sure I'd say that attendance is a evidence he's evaluating them in good faith ect.

I remember a Nonis interview that's always stuck with me (think it was on the eve of the 2013 draft).where he flat out said ownership had set aside a budget for stays analysis and he could never think of a way to spend it.

I always go back to the Moneyball source material when I think of analytics in sports. Like how do you run a competitive sports franchise on a smaller budget but maximize the dollar cost average on a run, a goal, a win, etc.

With a flat cap the Leafs surely need to squeeze value out of every penny assigned to their roster in a way they’ve never had to seriously before, but I’ve always found a bit of a tension between a big market team that can afford both a top heavy roster full of superstars and the mortgage on a Robidas Island to underwrite big mistakes. I guess long story short. How committed are we to analytics at all?

 

[sparxx87]

Obviously yes. Have you ever heard of Brian Burke at all?

I have. If you knew what you were talking about you wouldn’t be calling him unprepared.

Arrogant, cocky, there’s a few unflattering words to describe him… but unprepared or uninformed don’t apply.

But hey, great job telling me you don’t know without saying you don’t know.

 

[zeke]

I have. If you knew what you were talking about you wouldn’t be calling him unprepared.

Arrogant, cocky, there’s a few unflattering words to describe him… but unprepared or uninformed don’t apply.

But hey, great job telling me you don’t know without saying you don’t know.

I guarantee you he hasn't done any "research" into the numbers he has dismissed from the start.

 

[sparxx87]

I guarantee you he hasn't done any "research" into the numbers he has dismissed from the start.

Based on what? The same instinct that led you to believe a player faked an injury in a contract year?

Perspective is important. I can’t stress that enough with you.

 

[zeke]

Based on what? The same instinct that led you to believe a player faked an injury in a contract year?

Perspective is important. I can’t stress that enough with you.

Faking an injury got Fred a surprisingly nice contract this offseason.

Well played, Freddy.

 

[Stephen]

I have. If you knew what you were talking about you wouldn’t be calling him unprepared.

Arrogant, cocky, there’s a few unflattering words to describe him… but unprepared or uninformed don’t apply.

But hey, great job telling me you don’t know without saying you don’t know.

Just wanted to elaborate on my earlier post about sports analytics and the original Moneyball premise. For a small market, shoe string budget team like the Oakland A's, analytics was an existential problem. Survive and thrive in a league vs financial juggernauts like the New York Yankees by getting the most mileage out of every dollar spent, bring in cheap productive players like David Justice and Scott Hatteberg to replace free agents like Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon.

In the Leafs example, we are the Yankees. We have Jason Giambi AND Johnny Damon. But because of the flat cap we also need guys like David Justice and Scott Hatteberg because we've spent too much on a top heavy roster, so the value of analytics and the pressure to use it is a little different. It's also a very different sport. So you're not likely to let Morgan Rielly go to free agency and find some random journeyman to perform at his level like you might in baseball.

Tying it all back to Brian Burke vs Dubas/Shanahan in a money sense (which is a big part of the analytics equation), Brian Burke was a very conservative spender. Remember how he never seemed to go after the big fish in free agency, would never cap circumvent, would never give out the extra years. Contrast that with the Shanaplan, where it seems like the organization has unlocked a level of spending we've never seen before, whether it's going after Tavares or opening up Robidas Island to get rid of bad contracts.

 

[sparxx87]

Just wanted to elaborate on my earlier post about sports analytics and the original Moneyball premise. For a small market, shoe string budget team like the Oakland A's, analytics was an existential problem. Survive and thrive in a league vs financial juggernauts like the New York Yankees by getting the most mileage out of every dollar spent, bring in cheap productive players like David Justice and Scott Hatteberg to replace free agents like Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon.

In the Leafs example, we are the Yankees. We have Jason Giambi AND Johnny Damon. But because of the flat cap we also need guys like David Justice and Scott Hatteberg because we've spent too much on a top heavy roster, so the value of analytics and the pressure to use it is a little different. It's also a very different sport. So you're not likely to let Morgan Rielly go to free agency and find some random journeyman to perform at his level like you might in baseball.

Tying it all back to Brian Burke vs Dubas/Shanahan in a money sense (which is a big part of the analytics equation), Brian Burke was a very conservative spender. Remember how he never seemed to go after the big fish in free agency, would never cap circumvent, would never give out the extra years. Contrast that with the Shanaplan, where it seems like the organization has unlocked a level of spending we've never seen before, whether it's going after Tavares or opening up Robidas Island to get rid of bad contracts.

From my perspective, the inability to bring in the Justice and Hatteberg has been most puzzling to me. I mean, wasn’t he going to find value in players that nobody else saw through his numbers?

Still waiting on that fruit.

I had the pleasure to have met Burke a few times. One time in particular I stood and talked to him for about 5 minutes at T1 baggage claim. I came away impressed thinking that’s one of the most measured and intelligent people I’ve ever met. Hard for me to believe he’d walk in as a speaker and not have researched the topic. That’s ridiculous and would go against everything I know to be true both first and second hand.

 

[Menzinger]

And you think someone with his education (he’s a lawyer, in case you forgot) and his professional experience would attend an event like that to dismiss analytics without doing his homework on them?

Having a law degree doesnt make one prepared to analyse sports stats.

Burke's professional resume is filled with instances of him having a very loud mouth on different hockey related issues, and not always holding the most nuanced of opinions on certain things.

 

[zeke]

From my perspective, the inability to bring in the Justice and Hatteberg has been most puzzling to me. I mean, wasn’t he going to find value in players that nobody else saw through his numbers?

Still waiting on that fruit.

Campbell, Spezza, Holl, Mikheyev, Bogosian, Galchenyuk, Thornton say hi.

 

[yubbers]

I always go back to the Moneyball source material when I think of analytics in sports. Like how do you run a competitive sports franchise on a smaller budget but maximize the dollar cost average on a run, a goal, a win, etc.

With a flat cap the Leafs surely need to squeeze value out of every penny assigned to their roster in a way they’ve never had to seriously before, but I’ve always found a bit of a tension between a big market team that can afford both a top heavy roster full of superstars and the mortgage on a Robidas Island to underwrite big mistakes. I guess long story short. How committed are we to analytics at all?

Moneyball doesn't work in hockey. There are too many variables. Baseball is for more static.

 

[sparxx87]

Having a law degree doesnt make one prepared to analyse sports stats.

Burke's professional resume is filled with instances of him having a very loud mouth on different hockey related issues, and not always holding the most nuanced of opinions on certain things.

No, but his experience provides perspective that allows him to intelligently critique them.

This is something a large portion of this board struggles with.

 

[Stephen]

Campbell, Spezza, Holl, Mikheyev, Bogosian, Galchenyuk, Thornton say hi.

Not really sure how many of those names would classify as analytics finds and not simply formerly high pedigree players who were available on the cheap.

The best analytics story I've come across lately re: the Leafs is actually Petr Mrazek. In Goal Magazine did a deep dive on Clear Site Analytics and mentioned that Mrazek thrives behind the type of defense the Leafs like to play, so that will be interesting to track.

 

[sparxx87]

Campbell, Spezza, Holl, Mikheyev, Bogosian, Galchenyuk, Thornton say hi.

These are what you’d consider players who nobody else saw value in?

Campbell was a gimme. Dubas botched the goaltending situation for a year and a half. Kings are selling? That’s a gimme. Spezza wants to play at home for league min? Gimme. Holl and Mikheyev the jury is still out. Bogosian was an easy one (I recall you and I among few who endorsed the signing from the start). Galchenyuk is a low IQ player who hurt more than he helped, and Thornton was a bust in Toronto. Neither is a ringing endorsement.

Do you have any examples that actually fit the criteria? Undervalued by everyone else?