The New and Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[Bomber0104]

The stats showed that they were playoffs bubble teams as long as they got decent goaltending.


And the one year they got decent goaltending, they made the playoffs.

"The stats" showed the Leafs were an alleged playoff team despite completely tanking in the standings (dead last, 5th last, 8th last)...

What a weird discrepancy?

Must mean "the stats" weren't very good.

Or the interpreter?

I know what I think and I also can see that nothing has changed

 

[zeke]

"The stats" showed the Leafs were an alleged playoff team despite completely tanking in the standings (dead last, 5th last, 8th last)...

What a weird discrepancy?

Must mean "the stats" weren't very good.

Or the interpreter?

I know what I think and I also can see that nothing has changed

The stats clearly showed that the Leafs biggest problem all those years was goaltending. And then unsurprisingly, the one year they got good goaltending they made the playoffs.

 

[Bomber0104]

The stats clearly showed that the Leafs biggest problem all those years was goaltending. And then unsurprisingly, the one year they got good goaltending they made the playoffs.

"The stats" should get a better read on goaltending then, no?

It might save oneself from spending a lot of their time and energy proclaiming a team to be a playoff team when in fact they're actually going to end up in last place, yeah?

"The stats" can clearly miss the mark quite widely, if we can establish anything, yeah?

 

[zeke]

"The stats" should get a better read on goaltending then, no?

It might save oneself from spending a lot of their time and energy proclaiming a team to be a playoff team when in fact they're actually going to end up in last place, yeah?

"The stats" can clearly miss the mark quite widely, if we can establish anything, yeah?

Goaltending is very important, yes. And can be unpredictable.

And I definitely thought we'd get better from the likes of Raycroft and Toskala than we did. Did not expect them to implode into non-nhl caliber goalies as soon as the joined the leafs.

 

[Bomber0104]

Goaltending is very important, yes. And can be unpredictable.

And I definitely thought we'd get better from the likes of Raycroft and Toskala than we did. Did not expect them to implode into non-nhl caliber goalies as soon as the joined the leafs.

"The stats" are very wrong.

So wrong that they can mistake a last placed team for a playoff team, as some have before.

You tend to get what you pay for in life, as they say.

Internet hockey stats that one can pull for free, made by someone who got paid nothing to do it, will by in nature be next to worthless...

Stats that work aren't published for free on the internet.

 

[zeke]

"The stats" are very wrong.

So wrong that they can mistake a last placed team for a playoff team, as some have before.

You tend to get what you pay for in life, as they say.

Internet hockey stats that one can pull for free, made by someone who got paid nothing to do it, will by in nature will be worthless...

That must be why they never work.

The stats tell us perfectly what the good parts and bad parts of the team is. All the best teams in the league are heavily invested in the use of them.

Ignoring them is exactly why Burke then Nonis gradually dismantled what was good about the team while never addressing what was bad about it.

 

[Bomber0104]

The stats tell us perfectly what the good parts and bad parts of the team is. All the best teams in the league are heavily invested in the use of them.

Ignoring them is exactly why Burke then Nonis gradually dismantled what was good about the team while never addressing what was bad about it.

If the free internet stats (that no NHL team uses) tells you a last place team is a playoff team, something is seriously wrong.

A good data scientist would look at that horrible, horrible variance and try to correct why they led that person horribly, horribly astray...

Or they won't and continue using those terrible stats every single year, and interpreting them equally as bad...

Last place teams look like playoffs teams and playoff teams look like last place teams.

Who cares!

 

[Stonehands1990]

I'm not too worried about them leaving but with their contract lengths being what they are and what a struggle it's been to keep anybody at a lower tier, if you mix in a little losing and turmoil you never know.

Their contract lengths are in line with about 1/2 of what young stars sign out of ELC
Crosby 5 years
Kane 5 years
Toews 5 years

 

[Stonehands1990]

The stats tell us perfectly what the good parts and bad parts of the team is. All the best teams in the league are heavily invested in the use of them.

Ignoring them is exactly why Burke then Nonis gradually dismantled what was good about the team while never addressing what was bad about it.

Burke is a keynote speaker at MITs conference on statistics. Please stop slandering the man’s name.

Just because people who played and understand the game at a higher level (it’s called hockey IQ for a reason) don’t weight it as heavily doesn’t mean they’re being ignored. Also nobody knows for sure how heavily someone like Sakic or Brisebois weights them


MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Speaker | Brian Burke

 

[Stonehands1990]

I don't think we got any more value out of Nick Foligno than we did Eemeli Rasanen.

Another failed Hunter pick. I want to see what the Dubas drafts will yield

 

[FiveHoleo]

Dig deeper into my questions though.

Is it the coach making these decisions, truly, in your mind?

If you have something to say, just say it instead of being all mysterious like you're some sort of ancient monk trying to explain ridiculous stuff to Tom Hanks with a riddle. The coach has a job to determine the lineup every night. If you are saying somebody else is actually making that decision then that is just your weird conspiracy and it has nothing to do with what I'm saying about Keefe being a terrible coach and Dubas standing by this terrible coach. Whatever you are trying to say about Keefe's reptilian/alien heritage or whatever doesn't apply to the reality I live in, sorry.

 

[sparxx87]

If you have something to say, just say it instead of being all mysterious like you're some sort of ancient monk trying to explain ridiculous stuff to Tom Hanks with a riddle. The coach has a job to determine the lineup every night. If you are saying somebody else is actually making that decision then that is just your weird conspiracy and it has nothing to do with what I'm saying about Keefe being a terrible coach and Dubas standing by this terrible coach. Whatever you are trying to say about Keefe's reptilian/alien heritage or whatever doesn't apply to the reality I live in, sorry.

It’s not a weird conspiracy. Some who focus on tactics are confused why someone with NHL playing experience can’t spot or adjust.

Given the nature of the relationship and the lack of any high level experience from the GM, it appears to a number of people that Keefe has been neutered. Dubas even said something about not changing because the numbers would normalize in the Montréal series.

Sometimes when people deny the obvious, rather than telling them, it’s more effective to ask questions and allow them to arrive at the answer on their own.

 

[Gary Nylund]

People shouldn't kid themselves, Nylander is a mercenary just like his old man, and Matthews loves the SouthWest US.

I'm not saying they're both leaving for sure, but IMO, it wouldn't be the least bit surprising.

In a vacuum, I'd say they likely stay but no guarantees. In real life though, a lot depends on how the team does. Have some playoff success and it's highly likely they stay. Not guaranteed but highly likely. But fail again for the next two years and the atmosphere in this town will be close to unbearable so taking the easy way out and going to a new place that's a bit less of a pressure cooker becomes much more of a possibility.

If Matthews leaves, I think a high profile place (like NY) is much more likely but again, you just never know.

 

[ULF_55]

Goaltending is very important, yes. And can be unpredictable.

And I definitely thought we'd get better from the likes of Raycroft and Toskala than we did. Did not expect them to implode into non-nhl caliber goalies as soon as the joined the leafs.

Vesa Toskala Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Looks like he was okay year 1, and then 2008 there had to have been something change for him to plummet like he did.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If you had listened to the Bob McCown podcast, Dubas actually made those comments about organizational change and job security vs the performance of the team when asked about the possibility of getting fired. Nothing special to be sure, but just a straight forward and honest admission that if the vision doesn't pay off, there could be real consequences. That doesn't necessarily mean he's axed the day after the Leafs season ends but it does imply it's not a business as usual season.

I listened to that portion of the podcast, and it was nothing more than a pretty standard response to a pretty awkward question. Nobody has said that this is a "business as usual" season, and nobody has suggested that there won't eventually be changes within the organization if playoff success doesn't follow. However, there is nothing to suggest that Dubas' future with the organization hangs entirely on this season's playoff outcome.

 

[egd27]

If Matthews leaves, I think a high profile place (like NY) is much more likely but again, you just never know.

I see Nylander more likely to land in a larger northeast market, and Matthews heading for the warmer climate. But as you say, who knows.

 

[ottomaddox]

I know it's a pay sight, the title of the article speaks loudly.

 

[IPS]

I see Nylander more likely to land in a larger northeast market, and Matthews heading for the warmer climate. But as you say, who knows.

Any reasoning for that at all? I believe they both re-sign with the Leafs without issue.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Any reasoning for that at all? I believe they both re-sign with the Leafs without issue.

Not sure but it seemed to me like he was speculating on where they'd go, IF they went (which doesn't mean he's predicting they'd leave). Or maybe I just think that, because that's what I was doing with what I said about Matthews.

 

[egd27]

Any reasoning for that at all? I believe they both re-sign with the Leafs without issue.

Not really, just an opinion. I can envision AM wanting to be in the US and closer to his family, and I see Nylander's old man instilling the same "money comes first" attitude that he displayed.

 

[ToneDog]

I know it's a pay sight, the title of the article speaks loudly.

No surprise optimism among Leaf fans is on the decline. This year's value signings on paper are not going to move the needle before they start playing some games for keeps.

 

[zeke]

No surprise optimism among Leaf fans is on the decline. This year's value signings on paper are not going to move the needle before they start playing some games for keeps.

What might be surprising to some of the people posting the same overwhelming anger in every thread here, though, is how positive those numbers are for leafs nation as a whole.

 

[ToneDog]

What might be surprising to some of the people posting the same overwhelming anger in every thread here, though, is how positive those numbers are for leafs nation as a whole.

Truth is some Leaf fans haven't gotten over the collapse to the Habs (I have). The only thing that will change that will be a good start to the season.

 

[egd27]

I know it's a pay sight, the title of the article speaks loudly.

What are the highlights for those of us without access?

 

[ottomaddox]

Truth is some Leaf fans haven't gotten over the collapse to the Habs (I have). The only thing that will change that will be a good start to the season.

Or if they can score like The Blue Jays.