The Never Too Early 2021 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Is anyone else frustrated by the amount of picks Dubas traded away at the deadline? Did the players he acquired even do anything? Wtf

It's the Foligno trade that really irks me. Rittich, Hutton, Nash, Noesen, fine, whatever. It's a lot of picks for those depth guys but in the case of a long run (lol) they'd have been fine additions and the price for them, a 7th (turned 6th because the Leafs are incompetent in the playoffs), a 5th, a 4th, and a 3rd is a high volume of picks but shouldn't break you as an organization. Shrewd drafting can see those picks reacquired in the future when you have an excess of prospects and nowhere to put them.

The 1st (and 4th) for Foligno though is brutal, absolutely got bent over in that trade. You don't trade a 1st round pick for an old grinder who can't score and has injury concerns. There was much much better value to be had with that pick either at this TDL or at this upcoming draft to try and improve the team for next season. Instead it was wasted on a guy that could barely skate and didn't do jack shit to help the team get over that 1st round hump.

Stupid trade. f*** Columbus, I don't think the Leafs have ever come away from a deal with them on the right side of it.

 

[Morgs]

Can this thread be stickied again? Still unsure why it was taken off.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

It's the Foligno trade that really irks me. Rittich, Hutton, Nash, Noesen, fine, whatever. It's a lot of picks for those depth guys but in the case of a long run (lol) they'd have been fine additions and the price for them, a 7th (turned 6th because the Leafs are incompetent in the playoffs), a 5th, a 4th, and a 3rd is a high volume of picks but shouldn't break you as an organization. Shrewd drafting can see those picks reacquired in the future when you have an excess of prospects and nowhere to put them.

The 1st (and 4th) for Foligno though is brutal, absolutely got bent over in that trade. You don't trade a 1st round pick for an old grinder who can't score and has injury concerns. There was much much better value to be had with that pick either at this TDL or at this upcoming draft to try and improve the team for next season. Instead it was wasted on a guy that could barely skate and didn't do jack shit to help the team get over that 1st round hump.

Stupid trade. f*** Columbus, I don't think the Leafs have ever come away from a deal with them on the right side of it.

There were a lot of people who loved that trade. I was not one of them.

Ever since the Leafs lost against Columbus and we turned to "need to find that killer instinct" narrative, Dubas has probably made the worst moves of his entire tenure. Foligno trade and signing Thornton to be anything more than a 13th forward were two things that really hurt us this year.

You don't buy killer instinct. You go to your stars and tell them to figure their crap out at this point, and you bring in guys like Bogosian who can play at a good level but have also won. Otherwise, you make moves like Brodie to fill holes, even if they have never won anything.

If Dubas stuck with analytics and skill, we would be past the 1st round. Foligno and Thornton were not analytics moves. Same with Simmonds, and he did not really work out either, but at least he had some upside. We may not have won the Cup, but I think we would have beat the Habs and Jets for sure.

 

[Morgs]

There were a lot of people who loved that trade. I was not one of them.

Ever since the Leafs lost against Columbus and we turned to "need to find that killer instinct" narrative, Dubas has probably made the worst moves of his entire tenure. Foligno trade and signing Thornton to be anything more than a 13th forward were two things that really hurt us this year.

You don't buy killer instinct. You go to your stars and tell them to figure their crap out at this point, and you bring in guys like Bogosian who can play at a good level but have also won. Otherwise, you make moves like Brodie to fill holes, even if they have never won anything.

If Dubas stuck with analytics and skill, we would be past the 1st round. Foligno and Thornton were not analytics moves. Same with Simmonds, and he did not really work out either, but at least he had some upside. We may not have won the Cup, but I think we would have beat the Habs and Jets for sure.

Getting Foligno was one thing. He's still a good player. Trading a 1st for a rental forward that is simply a defensive player at this point in his career was quite easily his worst move even without foresight. We were a good defensive team. We needed depth scoring.

Made no sense then. Makes just as little sense now.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Getting Foligno was one thing. He's still a good player. Trading a 1st for a rental forward that is simply a defensive player at this point in his career was quite easily his worst move even without foresight. We were a good defensive team. We needed depth scoring.

Made no sense then. Makes just as little sense now.

Sure, he was good enough to be in our lineup as a bottom 6 guy. He had 3rd round pick value at best, and that was with retention.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

There were a lot of people who loved that trade. I was not one of them.

Ever since the Leafs lost against Columbus and we turned to "need to find that killer instinct" narrative, Dubas has probably made the worst moves of his entire tenure. Foligno trade and signing Thornton to be anything more than a 13th forward were two things that really hurt us this year.

You don't buy killer instinct. You go to your stars and tell them to figure their crap out at this point, and you bring in guys like Bogosian who can play at a good level but have also won. Otherwise, you make moves like Brodie to fill holes, even if they have never won anything.

If Dubas stuck with analytics and skill, we would be past the 1st round. Foligno and Thornton were not analytics moves. Same with Simmonds, and he did not really work out either, but at least he had some upside. We may not have won the Cup, but I think we would have beat the Habs and Jets for sure.

I remember the night of the trade it was rumoured that Foligno could garner a first. Most of us laughed in the Trade rumours thread like “what dumbass team would trade a 1st for Foligno?”

The Leafs. The Leafs were that dumbass team.

 

[Gallagbi]

I remember the night of the trade it was rumoured that Foligno could garner a first. Most of us laughed in the Trade rumours thread like “what dumbass team would trade a 1st for Foligno?”

The Leafs. The Leafs were that dumbass team.

Pretty sure there were 3+ teams in that area offering firsts.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

It's the Foligno trade that really irks me. Rittich, Hutton, Nash, Noesen, fine, whatever. It's a lot of picks for those depth guys but in the case of a long run (lol) they'd have been fine additions and the price for them, a 7th (turned 6th because the Leafs are incompetent in the playoffs), a 5th, a 4th, and a 3rd is a high volume of picks but shouldn't break you as an organization. Shrewd drafting can see those picks reacquired in the future when you have an excess of prospects and nowhere to put them.

The 1st (and 4th) for Foligno though is brutal, absolutely got bent over in that trade. You don't trade a 1st round pick for an old grinder who can't score and has injury concerns. There was much much better value to be had with that pick either at this TDL or at this upcoming draft to try and improve the team for next season. Instead it was wasted on a guy that could barely skate and didn't do jack shit to help the team get over that 1st round hump.

Stupid trade. f*** Columbus, I don't think the Leafs have ever come away from a deal with them on the right side of it.

I was in favor of deal .. but I did not realize he had severe back issues .. what we got in a guy who could barely skate was complete robbery .. but a mid to late 1st rounder in 2021 is not a big deal .. in fact if you are not picking #1 basically da worst draft of kids ever to come to pro hockey .. now I am sure a few will develop over COVID but no one will really know who they are anywho .. but we should have got someone who could do more than Foligno did just for da lucky pick

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Pretty sure there were 3+ teams in that area offering firsts.

First, has that been confirmed or is that like the “Tavares was offered more” or the “Matthews/Marner offer sheet threat” rumours that only exist to paint the Leafs more positively for overpaying on contracts?

Second, even if true it doesn’t change the fact that one of those teams would have been dumb to do so. Leafs were just the ones “lucky” enough to get him.

 

[Gallagbi]

First, has that been confirmed or is that like the “Tavares was offered more” or the “Matthews/Marner offer sheet threat” rumours that only exist to paint the Leafs more positively for overpaying on contracts?

Second, even if true it doesn’t change the fact that one of those teams would have been dumb to do so. Leafs were just the ones “lucky” enough to get him.

Confirmed in the respect that it was rumored before and after by insiders close to the situation that are not just Leafs reporters. Like Tavares, basically an understood reality of the situation.

The Marner/Matthews offer sheets are in a MUCH different category IMO.

That understanding that his value was a first doesn't change the effectiveness of the trade, but it sets the understanding of market, which many people struggle with.

 

[Mess]

Can this thread be stickied again? Still unsure why it was taken off.

With the playoffs coming to an end we can move this back to the sticky section as it becomes relevant.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Who's Jonathan Toews / Brayden Point but in the 2nd round?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

First, has that been confirmed or is that like the “Tavares was offered more” or the “Matthews/Marner offer sheet threat” rumours that only exist to paint the Leafs more positively for overpaying on contracts?

Second, even if true it doesn’t change the fact that one of those teams would have been dumb to do so. Leafs were just the ones “lucky” enough to get him.

All of those things were confirmed by reputable insiders (and not just Leafs ones either) , and I think Foligno and Tavares were confirmed by the players themselves. Foligno specifically said that Columbus came to him with 3 teams and told him to pick one, and he picked us (Colorado was one of the other teams for sure, but I am not sure who the other two were).

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Who's Jonathan Toews / Brayden Point but in the 2nd round?

I like Manix Landry a lot more than most.

No one is really like those two though. Stankoven may be the closest thing to Point this year, but he is likely going to go fairly high and Point was a better prospect at the time IMO.

I think the Leafs are more likely to get another guy like Sam Girard if a guy like Zellweger falls.

This draft has a lot of solid but unspectaculars. Guys who can play top 6/4, but won't be game breakers, and a lot of guys you would love to have as your 4/5 or on a 3rd line. That is somewhat the opposite of 2020 which had a lot of long shot boom-busts.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Confirmed in the respect that it was rumored before and after by insiders close to the situation that are not just Leafs reporters. Like Tavares, basically an understood reality of the situation.

The Marner/Matthews offer sheets are in a MUCH different category IMO.

That understanding that his value was a first doesn't change the effectiveness of the trade, but it sets the understanding of market, which many people struggle with.

Just because the market dictated a certain price does not mean you have to pay that price. The appropriate response to Jarmo telling Kyle he’s got two other teams offering a first for Foligno is “Good luck with that” and hanging up.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I like Manix Landry a lot more than most.

No one is really like those two though. Stankoven may be the closest thing to Point this year, but he is likely going to go fairly high and Point was a better prospect at the time IMO.

I think the Leafs are more likely to get another guy like Sam Girard if a guy like Zellweger falls.

This draft has a lot of solid but unspectaculars. Guys who can play top 6/4, but won't be game breakers, and a lot of guys you would love to have as your 4/5 or on a 3rd line. That is somewhat the opposite of 2020 which had a lot of long shot boom-busts.

All the credit in the world to Sam Girard, good player but we need some nasty on that blue line and nothing is coming. Could use some nasty...even if the upside isn't super amazing, we're seeing that grit actually isn't cheap to acquire.

 

[Gallagbi]

Just because the market dictated a certain price does not mean you have to pay that price. The appropriate response to Jarmo telling Kyle he’s got two other teams offering a first for Foligno is “Good luck with that” and hanging up.

That's your price if you want the player, so the question is whether or not it is worth it. It wasn't in this case.

 

[Morgs]

I like Manix Landry a lot more than most.

No one is really like those two though. Stankoven may be the closest thing to Point this year, but he is likely going to go fairly high and Point was a better prospect at the time IMO.

I think the Leafs are more likely to get another guy like Sam Girard if a guy like Zellweger falls.

This draft has a lot of solid but unspectaculars. Guys who can play top 6/4, but won't be game breakers, and a lot of guys you would love to have as your 4/5 or on a 3rd line. That is somewhat the opposite of 2020 which had a lot of long shot boom-busts.

Completely agree. There are a bunch of guys that will probably be impact NHL'ers, but I don't see the "star" upside outside of maybe 6 guys, but really I'm only confident in Eklund and Beniers.

I'd die of happiness if we got Zellweger with our pick. I'm putting the finishing touches on my "month out" top-64, and I currently have him top-15. Just lunacy he's ranked late 2nd/early 3rd most places.

 

[Morgs]

Does anyone actually believe Owen Power is going to be special? Maybe the weirdest thing about this draft I've found is that Owen Power is simply 1OA on almost everyone's list because there is nobody else to challenge him.

His offensive numbers were great (3rd for defenseman in NHLe I tracked) as a Freshman in the NCAA, but I haven't seen a single report where someone believes he has a high offensive ceiling. I actually see more questions about if the offense will translate. Then all I hear is it's mitigated by his ability to move the puck with his high IQ, but I see complaints about puck skills being below average. They say he'll be good defensively, but the main thing I see as a negative for him is his defense. I don't know if I'm crazy or if people have kinda just accepted a 6'6" guy who is basically average across the board with good IQ to be the 1st OA because there isn't a guy that would arguably go top-5 last year. Not that I studied the draft back then, but it feels more like Erik Johnson than it does Ekblad or Dahlin.

And it's not to say he's bad. I think he's worthy of a top-5 pick. I think he's probably a lock to be a top-4 guy at the NHL level. I just don't get why a) people have him above Luke Hughes, and b) how people have him above some of the F (Beniers, Eklund, Guenther, and maybe Johnson) who have legitimate star potential imo.

 

[cupcrazyman]

No 1st
2nd
No 3rd
No 4th
5th
6th
No 7th

Thanks Dumbass

 

[aingefan]

No 1st
2nd
No 3rd
No 4th
5th
6th
No 7th

Thanks Dumbass

And +5 picks in ‘20.

 

[Fonzieleaf]

No 1st
2nd
No 3rd
No 4th
5th
6th
No 7th

Thanks Dumbass

And IIRC only 3 picks in next year's draft as well. 6 draft picks in total over 2 drafts.

Brutal.

His excuse was that we drafted a shit load of players in 2020 so the prospect pipeline is deep.

 

[Fonzieleaf]

https://thehockeywriters.com/5-maple-leafs-2nd-round-targets-2021-draft/

This is a good read about who we could snag with the 2nd round pick. Pretty in depth with each player.

 

[stickty111]

And +5 picks in ‘20.

If you ask scouting people, they are high on our system.

 

[Morgs]

https://thehockeywriters.com/5-maple-leafs-2nd-round-targets-2021-draft/

This is a good read about who we could snag with the 2nd round pick. Pretty in depth with each player.

....I'm kinda shocked at how much I like that list. THW is not exactly known for sparkling insight.

Zellweger and Martino are arguably my two favourite picks at our spot right now (for guys I reasonably expect to be there), and I like Johnson a bunch.

Petrov seems.... like a stretch? I could see him there in the 5th for us. Good production, good tools, not the best skater. Doubt he's the best player available when we pick in the 2nd but we could do much worse imo.

Bar, I don't get the love. Doubt I have him in my first three rounds, let alone a 2nd round pick. I don't like players who can't play with the puck.