WTFMAN99
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The Never Too Early 2021 NHL Entry Draft Discussion
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Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Alright, I think I have my first 5 tiers done. I doubt the tiers will change much, but I may tinker with the order inside a bunch. I'll probably split 45-96 with another tier, but right now I'd like to see if anyone has any thoughts.
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| Tier | Rank | Player Name | D-Age | Height | Weight | POS | League | Team | D0 NHLe | D-1 NHLe |
| 1 | 1 | Eklund, William | 18.9 | 5'10" | 172 | C/W | SHL | Djurgårdens | 23.1 | 8.2 |
| 1 | 2 | Guenther, Dylan | 18.4 | 6'2" | 171 | W | WHL | Edmonton | 26.6 | 13.5 |
| 1 | 3 | Beniers, Matthew | 18.9 | 6'0" | 175 | C | NCAA | Michigan | 18.9 | 9.7 |
| 2 | 4 | Hughes, Luke | 18.0 | 6'2" | 160 | LHD | USHL | USDP | 8.1 | 4.5 |
| 2 | 5 | Power, Owen | 18.8 | 6'5" | 210 | LHD | NCAA | Michigan | 11.7 | 8.6 |
| 2 | 6 | Clarke, Brandt | 18.6 | 6'1" | 181 | RHD | Slovakia | HC Nove Zamky | 6.6 | 8.5 |
| 2 | 7 | Johnson, Kent | 18.9 | 6'1" | 170 | C | NCAA | Michigan | 19.7 | 12.6 |
| 2 | 8 | Wallstedt, Jasper | 18.8 | 6'3" | 212 | G | SHL | Luleå | 0.908 | 0.923 |
| 3 | 9 | Sillinger, Cole | 18.3 | 6'0" | 187 | C | USHL | Sioux Falls | 14.4 | 14.7 |
| 3 | 10 | Lucius, Chaz | 18.4 | 6'1" | 180 | C | USHL | USDP | 14.5 | 6.7 |
| 3 | 11 | Stankoven, Logan | 18.6 | 5'8" | 170 | W | WHL | Kamloops | 22.1 | 10.8 |
| 3 | 12 | McTavish, Mason | 18.6 | 6'1" | 196 | C | Swiss D1 | EHC Olten | 3.5 | 9.4 |
| 3 | 13 | Zellweger, Olen | 18.0 | 5'9" | 165 | LHD | WHL | Everett | 15.7 | 2.7 |
| 3 | 14 | Cossa, Sebastian | 18.8 | 6'4" | 212 | G | WHL | Edmonton | 0.941 | 0.921 |
| 3 | 15 | Pastujov, Sasha | 18.2 | 6'0" | 181 | W | USHL | USDP | 14.0 | 8.7 |
| 3 | 16 | Coronato, Matthew | 18.8 | 5'10" | 181 | W | USHL | Chicago | 16.1 | 8.6 |
| 3 | 17 | Edvinsson, Simon | 18.6 | 6'4" | 187 | LHD | SHL | Frolunda | 4.0 | 5.3 |
| 3 | 18 | Olausson, Oskar | 18.9 | 6'2" | 181 | W | SHL | HV71 | 10.0 | 5.4 |
| 4 | 19 | Ceulemans, Corson | 18.4 | 6'2" | 188 | RHD | AJHL | Brooks | 8.1 | 4.7 |
| 4 | 20 | Lambos, Carson | 18.7 | 6'1" | 197 | LHD | U20 Sarja | JYP | 5.1 | 7.5 |
| 4 | 21 | Bourgault, Xavier | 19.0 | 5'11" | 166 | C | QMJHL | Shawinigan | 18.0 | 14.7 |
| 4 | 22 | Lysell, Fabian | 18.7 | 5'10" | 176 | W | SHL | Lulea | 4.6 | 3.8 |
| 4 | 23 | L'Heureux, Zachary | 18.4 | 5'11" | 196 | W | QMJHL | Halifax | 15.4 | 12.6 |
| 4 | 24 | Svechkov, Fyodor | 18.5 | 6'0" | 179 | W | VHL | Lada | 8.7 | 3.5 |
| 4 | 25 | Othmann, Brennan | 18.7 | 5'11" | 166 | W | Swiss D1 | EHC Olten | 1.9 | 7.6 |
| 4 | 26 | Roy, Joshua | 18.1 | 6'1" | 192 | C | QMJHL | Sherbrooke | 13.0 | 9.6 |
| 4 | 27 | Chayka, Daniil | 18.9 | 6'2" | 173 | LHD | KHL | CSKA | 9.3 | 7.7 |
| 4 | 28 | Chibrikov, Nikita | 18.6 | 5'10" | 165 | W | KHL | SKA | 6.4 | 7.0 |
| 4 | 29 | Räty, Aatu | 18.8 | 6'1" | 171 | C | Liiga | Karpat | 5.1 | 9.9 |
| 5 | 30 | Bolduc, Zachary | 18.6 | 6'1" | 175 | C | QMJHL | Rimouski | 14.0 | 12.3 |
| 5 | 31 | Martino, Ayrton | 19.0 | 5'10" | 170 | W | USHL | Omaha | 14.3 | 7.3 |
| 5 | 32 | Kisakov, Alexander | 18.9 | 5'10" | 141 | W | MHL | Dynamo | 16.7 | 7.4 |
| 5 | 33 | Samoskevich, Mackie | 18.8 | 5'9" | 172 | W | USHL | Chicago | 9.9 | 7.0 |
| 5 | 34 | Robertsson, Simon | 18.6 | 6'0" | 181 | W | J20 Nationell | Skelleftea | 9.4 | 5.2 |
| 5 | 35 | Dean, Zachary | 18.7 | 5'11" | 168 | C | QMJHL | Gatineau | 11.3 | 10.5 |
| 5 | 36 | Behrens, Sean | 18.5 | 5'9" | 174 | LHD | USHL | USDP | 7.6 | 6.6 |
| 5 | 37 | Nadeau, Olivier | 18.7 | 6'2" | 205 | W | QMJHL | Shawinigan | 17.3 | 5.2 |
| 5 | 38 | Poltapov, Prokhor | 18.6 | 5'10" | 161 | W | MHL | Krasnaya | 11.9 | 7.3 |
| 5 | 39 | Rosen, Isak | 18.5 | 5'10" | 155 | W | SHL | Leksands | 1.8 | 6.5 |
| 5 | 40 | Johnston, Wyatt | 18.4 | 5'11" | 155 | C | OHL | Windsor | 0.0 | 7.2 |
| 5 | 41 | Boucher, Tyler | 18.7 | 6'1" | 201 | W | USHL | USDP | 9.7 | 4.4 |
| 5 | 42 | Johnson, Brent | 18.5 | 5'11" | 165 | RHD | USHL | Sioux Falls | 6.6 | 2.3 |
| 5 | 43 | Pinelli, Francesco | 18.4 | 6'0" | 176 | C | AlpsHL | HDD Jesenice | 3.9 | 8.8 |
| 5 | 44 | Salminen, Samu | 18.4 | 6'3" | 190 | W | U20 Sarja | Jokerit | 9.2 | 5.2 |
cupcrazyman
Stupid Sexy Flanders
Fonzieleaf
Registered User
Yeah. Imagine if we had the opportunity to draft Wallstedt?
Would’ve been good but we are too good to draft that high.
AcerComputer
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Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Yeah. I personally think he's more expected to go #1 because there's no real "star" in this draft and is arguably the safest top-6/top-4 guy available with some chance of being a top-pair guy (more in the Erik Johnson-mould).
I think both Hughes and Clarke have better chances at being top-pairing/stars, but their bust potential is also higher. I also think forwards in general are inherently more valuable than defenseman, so it wasn't hard justifying the three potential star forwards over him.
nuck
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SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
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Upside is questionable and missed most of this year with an injury.
57 is a solid range for him, but I imagine there are going to be teams that take a flier on him before then.
Surprised to see Koivunen left off your list considering you seem to put a premium on HIQ. His smarts are undoubtably his most standout trait and most outlets have him in the 35-50 range. Do you think his skillset is too bland?
I like the Zellweger shoutout but there's no way in my mind he becomes a better NHL defender than Edvinsson. Even if you question Edvinsson's decision-making (I think it's an overblown concern), his floor will still give him a lengthy NHL career, at worst, and i'd argue even his ceiling is higher than Zellweger considering the physical tools of Edv.
LaPlante94
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I believe it's his lack of upside and he's one of those players who is probably one of the smartest in the draft but his skill isn't the greatest.
SeaOfBlue
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Putting up a hot WJC tournament production-wise has helped Tuomaala, Heimosalmi, and Koivunen's cases, but teams want to see these guys against men... Especially today where the Liiga has fallen off a little bit in quality vs. 10 years ago. None of these guys played against men, and in Tuomaala and Heimosalmi's case, they did not even dominate U20 competition in Finland. Koivunen was the only one to make an All-Star team in the U20 this year, and it was the 2nd team.
Right now there are three Finns in the NHL who break the trend of playing Liiga full time at 18 (if they played in Finland): Sami Vatanen, Joonas Donskoi, and Esa Lindell.
Sami Vatanen was on the U18 squad as a 17 and 18-year old and was stuck on the depth chart of the team that was ultimately the Liiga Champions that year. He probably would have been playing full time in the Liiga anywhere else, even though there are half the number of spots available for defensemen vs. forwards. Drafted 106th overall.
Donskoi still played half of the season in the Liiga as an 18 year old, played in the U20 league as a 17 year old, was a PPG+ in the U18's in his draft year, and dominated the U20 league in his draft year. He still only went 99th overall and went unsigned by Florida (the team that originally drafted him) before figuring it out a few years later. He's now a solid/high end 3rd line player for Colorado.
Lindell was a 6'3", 190 lbs puck moving defensive defenseman who put up a PPG+ in the U20 league as an 18 year old defenseman, and followed that up with a near PPG performance at the U18 tournament that same year. I think taking a swing on him with the 74th overall pick was a worthwhile risk, especially since, like Vatanen, he was stuck on the depth chart of a really high end team: Jokerit. They won the Bronze medal in the Liiga in his DY.
Compare that to the 2021 guys:
Heimosalmi played in the Assat system. Assat did not even make the Liiga playoffs. Their defense, for the most part, was a mess. If he was a high end prospect like some are claiming, he should have been a top 4 defenseman on that team this year. Instead, he couldn't even crack the team at all. He was solid, but unspectacular, at every point until he got to the U18 tournament. He did well there, and that is the only reason (besides maybe Covid messing things up this year) I even considered him as more than a fringe prospect. I have him as a long shot defenseman with complimentary top 4 defenseman upside.
Koivunen and Tuomaala played for a deeper Karpat system, but they are forwards. There are more spots for them. Raty played full time for Karpat this year, yet I have seen Tuomaala ranked above him a bunch of times. There are more opportunities for them. Once again, U18's (and Covid) are the only reason why they are even on the radar right now. I have them both as long shot high end 3rd line players similar to Donskoi right now.
SeaOfBlue
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I'll post this separately. I have Raty (in my top 25, but I wouldn't be shocked if he goes late 20's/early 30's), Salminen (top 50, although could be late 50's/early 60's), Vilen (top 75, should go in the top 75), and Helenius (top 75, should go top 75) all ahead of Koivunen, Tuomaala, and Heimosalmi. Raty, Vilen, and Helenius are all full time Liiga players. Salminen dominated the U20 league and I think the only reason he did not play pro this year is because he is going the NCAA route with Denver.
Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
The only crazy ranking is Savage but I have him in the second round. Bader's rankings are so interesting to me as it uses NHLe exclusively to figure out the likelihood of a player being a star/NHLer and completely takes out the scouting side of the equation.
Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
I'm not at my laptop so I'll edit this later with my koivunen opinion and the range I currently have him. I do believe I still have him I the 2nd, but if not he's early third.
As for Zellweger, the guy has some of the best stats tracked by Mitch Brown, has the highest NHLe of any defenseman in the draft, and Baders 2nd highest star% (behind only Clarke). Watching him is an entirely different thing in the fact he's an efficient and strong defender with good/great skating to go along with well above average puck skills. If anyone remembers, I had an almost obsession with Ty Smith (had him 3rd ranked behind Dahlin/Svech) and Zellweger is the (slightly) lite version of him. I believe he'd be a consensus top-15 pick if he was 2/3 inches taller. Instead I believe he may be available to the Leafs in the 50s.
As for Edvinsson I like him. I like him a lot, but the more I kept putting together my list the more I kept pushing him down because I couldn't justify having him over any player above him. Like I have in all my rankings, my tiers are pretty close to interchangeable. I could justify him being 9th, I just don't think he has the upside of anyone above him but his floor might be the highest in the tier. Pretty much the only thing I love is his skating for his size, and other than that he's pretty much average across the board. I like him a lot more than Guhle/Schneider last year but I don't see his upside being anything more than a defensive top-4 guy with some puck moving ability. He'll be taken top-10 though.
SeaOfBlue
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I find Edvinsson too low. The Hedman comparisons are ridiculous, and even comparing him to an OEL is maybe a little bit much since I don't think he has that kind of offensive upside, but I think he can become another Brodin/Klefbom/Lindholm level defender. Solid, low end top pairing upside but may end up as a high end 2nd pairing defenseman. For a 6-10 pick, you take that every day and run... Especially when it comes in a 6'4" package.
Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Yeah but Bader ranks based on his star% and nhl%. It's no surprise Edvinsson is that low because he doesnt show his value with points. I'm just shocked with the Savage ranking because even though he crushed it this year he normally has a better way to contextualize (is that a word?) production.
HarrisonFord
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I’ve got my eye on Knies at 56
hockeynorth
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LaPlante94
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Who are the Chicago Steel players who might be available to us. Seems like we target at least 1 player from that program.
Sean Tschigerl. Just posting the name because he sounds like an interesting/possible late round gem and I don't want to forget his name when I look more stuff up on him later or this weekend.
Sean Tschigerl. Just posting the name because he sounds like an interesting/possible late round gem and I don't want to forget his name when I look more stuff up on him later or this weekend.
Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
I feel like having only a second we need to be damn confident either way. Of the guys I expect to be available at our pick, Zellweger and Martino have Baders highest star%/nhl%. Either one are very good bets to have 1st round value at a late 2nd pick.
hockeynorth
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Agreed. I feel nervous for this draft, not super confident in any guys and we don’t have a first or third. Zellweger is up there for me, I think I actually wouldn’t mind Boucher either. Stillman could be interesting too
Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Probably drafted Steel players:
Matthew Coronato (F) - Top-20 pick
Mackie Samoskevich (F)- Top-40 pick
Jackson Blake (F) - Top-90 pick
Ryan Ufko (RHD) - Top-90 pick
Jack Bar (RHD) - Top-90 pick
If Samoskevich somehow falls that's a crazy pickup for us. Blake and Ufko are very interesting. Bar I'm not a big fan of, but getting him in the 5th or 6th would be nice.
Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Yeah I like Boucher too. Guy has serious Tom Wilson vibes in that he's a wrecking ball with actual talent. Can't stay healthy though so he might have to slow down, which could make him less effective. I also fully expect him to be gone by our pick because of how much teams value that type of player even if he isn't close to BPA.
Stillman I'm a fan of, I just can't see a world where he's BPA in the 2nd round. Good/Great D-1 season in the O, good season this year in Denmark.
Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Ah okay, Koivunen. 18.3 on draft day, okay production in a relatively weak league. 11% star chance based on Bader's model. My notes say "weak skater, fun puck skills, plus IQ, loves to play in the slot".
I haven't been able to rank guys, but he's currently in my 45 - 96 group. Very hard to differentiate between those guys without me doing more research, but like I said, I think he'll probably end up being a late 2nd, early 3rd rounder in my rankings.
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