The Never Too Early 2021 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

[Morgs]

Also: I apologize if I'm dominating the convo a bit in here. It's just been a lot of research and I'm happy people are finally talking more about it!

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Probably drafted Steel players:

Matthew Coronato (F) - Top-20 pick
Mackie Samoskevich (F)- Top-40 pick
Jackson Blake (F) - Top-90 pick
Ryan Ufko (RHD) - Top-90 pick
Jack Bar (RHD) - Top-90 pick

If Samoskevich somehow falls that's a crazy pickup for us. Blake and Ufko are very interesting. Bar I'm not a big fan of, but getting him in the 5th or 6th would be nice.

Josh Doan as well.

Blake and Bar are not top 90 quality though.

Samoskevich is not all that impressive to me. He is top 75, but he has too much boom-bust potential to be a high 2nd round pick like where he is slotted.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Who are the Chicago Steel players who might be available to us. Seems like we target at least 1 player from that program.

Sean Tschigerl. Just posting the name because he sounds like an interesting/possible late round gem and I don't want to forget his name when I look more stuff up on him later or this weekend.

Tschigerl had a solid season after being underwhelming in his D-1. I question the upside so he is clearly a 4th round pick at best but he could be the type of guy who is a solid bottom 6 energy forward with a bit of skill some day.

He's always had the tenacity but unfortunately the skill and consistency has not translated yet... Could turn out to be a guy who really booms though.

 

[Morgs]

Josh Doan as well.

Blake and Bar are not top 90 quality though.

Samoskevich is not all that impressive to me. He is top 75, but he has too much boom-bust potential to be a high 2nd round pick like where he is slotted.

Eh that's where I think they'll be drafted. Bar is definitely not in my top-90. Blake is borderline but he's interesting.

I have no idea how you could think Mackie isn't even a 2nd rounder though.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Eh that's where I think they'll be drafted. Bar is definitely not in my top-90. Blake is borderline but he's interesting.

I have no idea how you could think Mackie isn't even a 2nd rounder though.

Top 75 still could make him a 2nd rounder. It's just a late 2nd rounder.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Jack Bar, not greatest skill, but BIG and FAST .. right shot .. saw him play once at St Andrew's .. we have to stop with skill drafting and focus on SPEED and SIZE .. guys have to be able to keep up to play

 

[Knies iT]

Putting up a hot WJC tournament production-wise has helped Tuomaala, Heimosalmi, and Koivunen's cases, but teams want to see these guys against men... Especially today where the Liiga has fallen off a little bit in quality vs. 10 years ago. None of these guys played against men, and in Tuomaala and Heimosalmi's case, they did not even dominate U20 competition in Finland. Koivunen was the only one to make an All-Star team in the U20 this year, and it was the 2nd team.

Right now there are three Finns in the NHL who break the trend of playing Liiga full time at 18 (if they played in Finland): Sami Vatanen, Joonas Donskoi, and Esa Lindell.

Sami Vatanen was on the U18 squad as a 17 and 18-year old and was stuck on the depth chart of the team that was ultimately the Liiga Champions that year. He probably would have been playing full time in the Liiga anywhere else, even though there are half the number of spots available for defensemen vs. forwards. Drafted 106th overall.

Donskoi still played half of the season in the Liiga as an 18 year old, played in the U20 league as a 17 year old, was a PPG+ in the U18's in his draft year, and dominated the U20 league in his draft year. He still only went 99th overall and went unsigned by Florida (the team that originally drafted him) before figuring it out a few years later. He's now a solid/high end 3rd line player for Colorado.

Lindell was a 6'3", 190 lbs puck moving defensive defenseman who put up a PPG+ in the U20 league as an 18 year old defenseman, and followed that up with a near PPG performance at the U18 tournament that same year. I think taking a swing on him with the 74th overall pick was a worthwhile risk, especially since, like Vatanen, he was stuck on the depth chart of a really high end team: Jokerit. They won the Bronze medal in the Liiga in his DY.

Compare that to the 2021 guys:

Heimosalmi played in the Assat system. Assat did not even make the Liiga playoffs. Their defense, for the most part, was a mess. If he was a high end prospect like some are claiming, he should have been a top 4 defenseman on that team this year. Instead, he couldn't even crack the team at all. He was solid, but unspectacular, at every point until he got to the U18 tournament. He did well there, and that is the only reason (besides maybe Covid messing things up this year) I even considered him as more than a fringe prospect. I have him as a long shot defenseman with complimentary top 4 defenseman upside.

Koivunen and Tuomaala played for a deeper Karpat system, but they are forwards. There are more spots for them. Raty played full time for Karpat this year, yet I have seen Tuomaala ranked above him a bunch of times. There are more opportunities for them. Once again, U18's (and Covid) are the only reason why they are even on the radar right now. I have them both as long shot high end 3rd line players similar to Donskoi right now.

Interesting. The ++HIQ and high motor signalled to me that he'd be a prime Dubas target, but clearly the ceiling is questionable due to a lack of standout tools and mediocre QOC.

I still think he's someone to keep tabs on if @Morgs is right about his projected range (~late 2nd). We've seen this management group go back to the same watering hole for prospects from the same team before: Robertson/Gogolev, Sandin/Hollowell, Kokkonen/Rindell, Abruzzese/Miller (moreso the Steel program as a whole), etc.

Koivunen comes from the same Karpat U20 system as Niemela and they've played together this past season. They've definitely had ample viewings of the guy to get a gauge.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Interesting. The ++HIQ and high motor signalled to me that he'd be a prime Dubas target, but clearly the ceiling is questionable due to a lack of standout tools and mediocre QOC.

I still think he's someone to keep tabs on if @Morgs is right about his projected range (~late 2nd). We've seen this management group go back to the same watering hole for prospects from the same team before: Robertson/Gogolev, Kokkonen/Rindell, Abruzzese/Miller (moreso the Steel program as a whole), etc.

Koivunen comes from the same Karpat U20 system as Niemela and they've played together this past season. They've definitely had ample viewings of the guy to get a gauge.

Niemela only played 6 games in the U20 league. Loponen played a lot more for Karpat U20.

It seems like the Leafs only like Finns who played in the Liiga, except for Miettinen (who was going the NCAA route) and Loponen (who was still a full time Mestis player and was taken in the 7th round as a result).

Kokkonen, Rindell, Hirvonen, and Niemela were all Liiga players when they were drafted. Rindell being a D+2 offensive defenseman made him go 6th round instead of the 2nd or 3rd like the others.

 

[LaPlante94]

Why do I feel the Bruins are going to get L'Heureux and we'll have another Marchand-lite player to deal with for years to come.

 

[93LEAFS]

Just got this years Black Book. Always a great deep dive. Weird cracking it open in the middle of July though.

 

[horner]

We need some true grit in our prospect pool.
We seem to be always drafting just small skilled players..
We need a few bottom six player that play hard nosed hockey .
And a few dman that play the same the same way hard nosed .

 

[aingefan]

I’m predicting the leafs will end up making six picks this year when all is said and done.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

Where is Chase Stillman expected to go, and what is the opinion on him? 6'1 18lbs, reports say he's a high motor player, like his father, might be available when the Leafs pick.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Where is Chase Stillman expected to go, and what is the opinion on him? 6'1 18lbs, reports say he's a high motor player, like his father, might be available when the Leafs pick.

Around our pick.

 

[Kiwi]

Just got this years Black Book. Always a great deep dive. Weird cracking it open in the middle of July though.

I get it every year as well but I'm struggling to get interested in this year's draft with our lack of picks

The black book is great for assessing the guys we pick but it doesn't look like we will have many of those this year

 

[Maplebeasts]

Pipe dream with our second but I would be so happy if we can get one of Zellweger or Samoskevich. Both are easy first rounders to me. Failing that I would love to get Scott Morrow.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Anybody have picks for goalies that they want? I wouldn't mind taking a shot at one of the Boyko/Alexander/Vrbetic as a long term big guy project but I really hope we avoid Lennox (who spent some time with the Marlies this year). He had one of the easiest workloads in the OHL in 19/20 and was still horrible.

 

[hockeynorth]

Anybody have picks for goalies that they want? I wouldn't mind taking a shot at one of the Boyko/Alexander/Vrbetic as a long term big guy project but I really hope we avoid Lennox (who spent some time with the Marlies this year). He had one of the easiest workloads in the OHL in 19/20 and was still horrible.

I love Gaudreau and don't really like Lennox

 

[Morgs]

Anybody have picks for goalies that they want? I wouldn't mind taking a shot at one of the Boyko/Alexander/Vrbetic as a long term big guy project but I really hope we avoid Lennox (who spent some time with the Marlies this year). He had one of the easiest workloads in the OHL in 19/20 and was still horrible.

Kolosov is my guy. Yes he's an OA, but I don't care.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Lennox is the kind of guy that a strong development team can turn into a starting goalie, but needs a ton of work. A team like LA could steal him in the late 2nd/early 3rd, but he is too risky to go higher than that.

Vrbetic is solid middle round goalie. He is large but he is not super athletic and he still needs a lot of refinement. I feel like he can be a quality backup or maybe a good 1B, but nothing more. Of course, who knows how much he improved off the ice. Boyko is a lot like Vrbetic in terms of his overall profile, but just offers a bit less to get you excited.

Boyko and Gerasimyuk are two of my top targets outside of the top 125 goalies I have (which includes Vrbetic).

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Kolosov is my guy. Yes he's an OA, but I don't care.

He is not huge, but I can see teams hyping him a bit. I want to see how he does in Erie before hyping him as a 2nd round talent, but late 3rd/ early 4th could be appropriate. I think he has more upside than Vrbetic right now.

 

[Mess]

How come more Leaf fans are not concerned at the carnage our GM has unleashed on our future to fuel the present? Never before in Leafs history have Leafs been left with so few future picks in the entry draft.

Here is the summary of Leafs return from future drafts of 2021 & 2022.

2021
1st - Traded to Columbus for Nick Foligno (UFA)
3rd -Traded to Los Angeles for Kyle Clifford - 2021 conditional 3rd round pick (originally second round if Clifford re-signs with Maple Leafs)
4th - Trade to San Jose - Stefan Noesen in a 3-team trade with Blue Jackets, Maple Leafs for salary retention on Nick Foligno.
7th - Traded to Boston - for 2020 seventh round pick (#212-Ryan Tverberg).

2022
3rd - Traded to Calgary for David Rittich - goalie (UFA).
4th - Traded to Columbus for Nick Foligno - forward (UFA).
5th - Traded to Anaheim for Ben Hutton- defense (UFA).
6th - Traded to Columbus for • Riley Nash - forward (UFA).

Leafs have only 3 picks in 2021 (2nd, 5th and 6th) and 3 picks in 2022 (1st, 2nd and 7th) that have survived the purge presently. The lack of picks is going to result in Leafs prospect pool falling to the near bottom of the league if you're not making many selections.

 

[hockeynorth]

How come more Leaf fans are not concerned at the carnage our GM has unleashed on our future to fuel the present? Never before in Leafs history has been left with so few future picks in the entry draft.

Here is the summary of Leafs return from future drafts of 2021 & 2022.

2021
1st - Traded to Columbus for Nick Foligno (UFA)
3rd -Traded to Los Angeles for Kyle Clifford - 2021 conditional 3rd round pick (originally second round if Clifford re-signs with Maple Leafs)
4th - Trade to San Jose - Stefan Noesen in a 3-team trade with Blue Jackets, Maple Leafs for salary retention on Nick Foligno.
7th - Traded to Boston - for 2020 seventh round pick (#212-Ryan Tverberg).

2022
3rd - Traded to Calgary for David Rittich - goalie (UFA).
4th - Traded to Columbus for Nick Foligno - forward (UFA).
5th - Traded to Anaheim for Ben Hutton- defense (UFA).
6th - Traded to Columbus for • Riley Nash - forward (UFA).

Leafs have only 3 picks in 2021 (2nd, 5th and 6th) and 3 picks in 2022 (1st, 2nd and 7th) that have survived the purge presently. The lack of picks is going to result in Leafs prospect pool falling to the near bottom of the league if you're not making many selections.

because we made a ton of picks last year and in all likely hood we will acquire more picks by then

 

[Morgs]

because we made a ton of picks last year and in all likely hood we will acquire more picks by then

Plus since he took over virtually every model has him as one of the best drafters who has created a top-10 pool without having lottery picks. Bader has him #1 getting more than an extra NHLer per expected.

It sucks he traded picks, but even if he only uses three I'm confident he isn't gonna waste them.

 

[horner]

Love to draft

Clutterbuck
Casey Cizikas
Coleman

Type of players

We need to draft some hard nis d players for bottom six roles.
Boys that love to hit