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[logan5]

We've gone from 'it takes 7-9 years to become a consistent playoff team' to 'some teams take 7-9 years to become a consistent playoff team' and 'there are different definitions of a rebuild.'

I wonder what could have possibly led to this shift.

Go through my posts if you want, but I have consistently said that a lot of teams in rebuild mode have 7 to 9 year bad stretches, like Colorado, and some even longer than that, like Edmonton and Buffalo. And people here at HFBoards has a differing definition of what they think a rebuild is. That's just a fact I was stating.

What conclusions do you come to on rebuilding when you see so many teams in the cap era taking 7 to 9 years and longer, to become a consistent play-off team?

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

Go through my posts if you want, but I have consistently said that a lot of teams in rebuild mode have 7 to 9 year bad stretches, like Colorado, and some even longer than that, like Edmonton and Buffalo. And people here at HFBoards has a differing definition of what they think a rebuild is. That's just a fact I was stating.

What conclusions do you come to on rebuilding when you see so many teams in the cap era taking 7 to 9 years and longer, to become a consistent play-off team?

Honestly? I don't see 'so many' teams fitting this mold you've described. You like to bring up the Avalanche, but Sakic has been described as having launched a rebuild in like 2017 (I believe I even linked to an example of that.)

The problem is that things are never clear cut. I brought up the Flames as an example. The Canucks transitioning from WCE to Sedin/Luongo-era Canucks is another example. I would argue that there was never a proper rebuild as the Canucks moved from the WCE Era to the Sedin Era Canucks. There was a significant amount of roster churn, but it wasn't a wholesale thing. Players were graduating into roles as older players transitioned out. There was no need to go through a rebuilding phase.

The Leafs are another example. They went from post-lockout, one last hurrah, Sundin-led Leafs to a period where they were still trying to compete under Burke before eventually biting the bullet and opting for the Shanaplan.

As I keep -- repeatedly -- saying, there are way too many moving parts and things to consider that you can't just categorize things into a simple binary. EDIT: And just because there might be a couple of teams that fit this preconceived notion, it doesn't mean that it's a meaningful or definitive pattern.

 

[tantalum]

We've gone from 'it takes 7-9 years to become a consistent playoff team' to 'some teams take 7-9 years to become a consistent playoff team' and 'there are different definitions of a rebuild.'

I wonder what could have possibly led to this shift.

Not to mention the elephant in the room that in this case somehow it’s the same GM…not the 3rd or 4th. Because of course the 7-9 years tends to fall apart when you realize that the GMs in charge of the initial rebuilds screwed up. Hence the reason they were replaced.

 

[logan5]

Honestly? I don't see 'so many' teams fitting this mold you've described. You like to bring up the Avalanche, but Sakic has been described as having launched a rebuild in like 2017 (I believe I even linked to an example of that.)

The problem is that things are never clear cut. I brought up the Flames as an example. The Canucks transitioning from WCE to Sedin/Luongo-era Canucks is another example. I would argue that there was never a proper rebuild as the Canucks moved from the WCE Era to the Sedin Era Canucks. There was a significant amount of roster churn, but it wasn't a wholesale thing. Players were graduating into roles as older players transitioned out. There was no need to go through a rebuilding phase.

The Leafs are another example. They went from post-lockout, one last hurrah, Sundin-led Leafs to a period where they were still trying to compete under Burke before eventually biting the bullet and opting for the Shanaplan.

As I keep -- repeatedly -- saying, there are way too many moving parts and things to consider that you can't just categorize things into a simple binary.

This is what I meant by people having differing opinions on when or what a rebuild is. That is why I worded it as "bad stretches", or "years of consistently missing the play-offs". There is no spin doctoring around the fact that Colorado had a 9 year bad stretch, or pick whichever other team has had such a stretch.

So you have drawn your conclusions on what happened to Colorado over that stretch. I see that 9 year stretch by Colorado as rebuilding years, even if there were multiple GM's involved. Most people here don't see it that way though

 

[Hit the post]

Not to mention the elephant in the room that in this case somehow it’s the same GM…not the 3rd or 4th. Because of course the 7-9 years tends to fall apart when you realize that the GMs in charge of the initial rebuilds screwed up. Hence the reason they were replaced.

I wonder how long the list of NHL GMs would be in charge that long without any kind of real post-season success (and no, I don't consider winning a few rounds in a COVID year "success").

 

[ProstheticConscience]

Dimjim has to be gone when they miss again, has to be.

I'd really like to believe this, but after the last seven years I just can't. Benning is the Pulford to AQ's Bill Wirtz. The Garth Snow to his Charles Wang. For whatever weird reason, they've clearly got some kind of synergy going that defies logic, reason, and results. They're just made for each other, and the rest of us be damned. Sucks but there it is.

 

[tantalum]

I'd really like to believe this, but after the last seven years I just can't. Benning is the Pulford to AQ's Bill Wirtz. The Garth Snow to his Charles Wang. For whatever weird reason, they've clearly got some kind of synergy going that defies logic, reason, and results. They're just made for each other, and the rest of us be damned. Sucks but there it is.

Pretty much what I think at this point. Jim will be gone when the rest of the family has had enough of FA running the Canucks and they step in to replace FA directly or force him to remove current management, hire an autonomous president and step back from the day to day.

 

[Johnny Canucker]

I wonder how long the list of NHL GMs would be in charge that long without any kind of real post-season success (and no, I don't consider winning a few rounds in a COVID year "success").

there was only 1 GM that had less success over a 7 year stretch statistically than JB in the last 20 years. It was Doug Armstrong.


How can you be in a rebuild for 7 years when you haven’t won anything? What are you rebuilding? lol. Also why is a rebuilding team spending to ceiling every year? Lastly a team that missed playoffs 6 of 7 years should have a ton of prospects right?

 

[BrentSopelsHair]

This is what I meant by people having differing opinions on when or what a rebuild is. That is why I worded it as "bad stretches", or "years of consistently missing the play-offs". There is no spin doctoring around the fact that Colorado had a 9 year bad stretch, or pick whichever other team has had such a stretch.

So you have drawn your conclusions on what happened to Colorado over that stretch. I see that 9 year stretch by Colorado as rebuilding years, even if there were multiple GM's involved. Most people here don't see it that way though

I feel like your definition of a rebuild is any period where a team does not have much success, while other posters are trying to make the point that a rebuild is a concerted effort to turn the team around, typically under a single manager. Likely this is where the disconnect is arising, because I see a rebuild as something proactive, that a team is choosing, whereas you might be saying that it is something passive that happens to teams during their competitive cycle

 

[bossram]

Dom L from the Athletic rated the OEL contract as 5th worst in the league, by his GSVA model.

 

[BrentSopelsHair]

Dom L from the Athletic rated the OEL contract as 5th worst in the league, by his GSVA model.

View attachment 460604

The writeup is not kind either

 

[racerjoe]

But we we will all laugh when he is a Norris candidate again this year!

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

But we we will all laugh when he is a Norris candidate again this year!

That's only if he's playing in the East, duh.

 

[bossram]

The writeup is not kind either

Same things we've been saying.

Tyler Myers was an "honourable mention" too lmao.

 

[logan5]

I feel like your definition of a rebuild is any period where a team does not have much success, while other posters are trying to make the point that a rebuild is a concerted effort to turn the team around, typically under a single manager. Likely this is where the disconnect is arising, because I see a rebuild as something proactive, that a team is choosing, whereas you might be saying that it is something passive that happens to teams during their competitive cycle

Yes. I called the Canucks rebuild “a rebuild by default” for those that kept arguing there was never a rebuild in Vancouver. If you are collecting high draft picks year after year, regardless of what the GM is saying, to me that’s a rebuild. I also think that GM’s lie through their teeth. It’s entirely possible, in my mind, that a GM will say they are trying to make the playoffs, for the purpose of season ticket sales, but they know the reality is they will be finishing near the bottom. Not just talking about Benning here.

 

[BrentSopelsHair]

Yes. I called the Canucks rebuild “a rebuild by default” for those that kept arguing there was never a rebuild in Vancouver. If you are collecting high draft picks year after year, regardless of what the GM is saying, to me that’s a rebuild. I also think that GM’s lie through their teeth. It’s entirely possible, in my mind, that a GM will say they are trying to make the playoffs, for the purpose of season ticket sales, but they know the reality is they will be finishing near the bottom. Not just talking about Benning here.

Okay sure. But I would say "rebuild by default" allows someone to project a plan onto a team/management group, using the results of the season to assume some sort of proactive, decided-upon process led them to that point. I think that is way too generous. If you believe in the "rebuild by default", I don't see how there can ever be a way for a management group to fail, because any time they are horrifically bad, one can assume that that was their plan all along.

I could honestly understand the point about messaging in a fickle market, saying "we want to compete, get playoff experience, etc" if that was purely messaging, and the actual hockey moves being made were in pursuit of a brighter future. Instead, in the Canucks case, their actions have pretty much always aligned with their statements about being "competitive", until the moment where reality catches up with them and they change the message to "building for the future" until they see a tall Dman in free agency and get all horned up once again

 

[canucksfan]

Dom L from the Athletic rated the OEL contract as 5th worst in the league, by his GSVA model.

View attachment 460604

And he won't be getting PP1 time while killing penalties, and playing the toughest minutes on the team with a group that can't defend well.

 

[Fatass]

And he won't be getting PP1 time while killing penalties, and playing the toughest minutes on the team with a group that can't defend well.

It’s such a sad situation for our club. As fans we know it’s going to be at least 2 years after that horrid OEL contract expires that a good GM could build a winner. Two bloody decades ruined by our current management.

 

[Hit the post]

It’s such a sad situation for our club. As fans we know it’s going to be at least 2 years after that horrid OEL contract expires that a good GM could build a winner. Two bloody decades ruined by our current management.

But Gillis!

 

[Samzilla]

I wonder how long the list of NHL GMs would be in charge that long without any kind of real post-season success (and no, I don't consider winning a few rounds in a COVID year "success").

The list is 3. There was an article on this.

-Milbury
-Maclean
-Benning

 

[timw33]

It's been a couple weeks and I still can't get over the Benning quote where he essentially says that he doesn't know why OEL's +/- has been so bad over the last few years.

The man just made a $50MM commitment, and paid premium assets in a package to acquire one of the worst contracts in the league, and just...doesn't know why he was so bad.

 

[Fatass]

But Gillis!

Our owner fires Gillis, clearly our most successful GM ever, and replaces him with Jethro friggin’ Bodine.

 

[Fatass]

It's been a couple weeks and I still can't get over the Benning quote where he essentially says that he doesn't know why OEL's +/- has been so bad over the last few years.

The man just made a $50MM commitment, and paid premium assets in a package to acquire one of the worst contracts in the league, and just...doesn't know why he was so bad.

 

[bossram]

And he won't be getting PP1 time while killing penalties, and playing the toughest minutes on the team with a group that can't defend well.

Surely these (more difficult) factors will cause his game to turn around!

 

[Melvin]

The list is 3. There was an article on this.

-Milbury
-Maclean
-Benning

I'm not really sure what Jarmo does to always be left off of these lists. That was funny when they swept Tampa in the first round but was essentially the high water mark and the team looks to be terrible again.