The Management Thread | We live Page to Page here

[vancityluongo]

Just so we're clear here, I'm going to count the number of mistakes, logical failures or outright dumb things Jim Benning managed to say in these 3 sentences :

1) He's attributing that a guy who hasn't performed at a top pairing level in a long time is a top pairing defender and a 'matchup guy' despite being destroyed in far easier minutes than that last year.

2) He's putting unfair pressure and expectations on the player by claiming that he's a #1 guy rather than just by saying he can be a good part of the group here. Juolevi=Lidstrom all over again.

3) He's invested nearly $50 million in cap space in a guy, when he 'doesn't know why' that player has struggled. Like, doesn't even attempt to have an opinion on it.

4) He's apparently using raw +/- as a key evaluation tool.

5) Despite not knowing why his +/- was bad in Arizona, he just makes a magical assumption it will get better in Vancouver.

6) Even after virtually every UFA he's signed into his 30s has blown up in his face - in particular Eriksson - he still believes that 30 is young and that OEL has 5-6 quality seasons left. Has learned absolutely nothing.

3 sentences. Incredible. Vapid is the exact word for it. Saying that Benning shows bad reasoning is actually a compliment to him because it implies that any reasoning at all is happening. This is a profoundly stupid man who doesn't even attempt to find logic and reasoning to make a move. It's the general out-of-date populist takes of the casual fan coupled with a healthy helping of blind hope.

The most charitable take on that quote from Benning is that he's saying he doesn't know in the sense that he has some suspicisions, they've done their research, talked to the relevant parties but nothing is ever a guarantee. And I suspect that's what he intended to have come across, but yeah, 8 years in, his worst quality as a GM is that he simply cannot publicly speak. Here are my counterpoints on behalf of Jim:

1) He will almost certainly play #1 minutes out of training camp, and regardless of how he performs in those minutes or whether or not it stays that way by November, let alone in year 6 of the remainder of the contract, I'd bet Jim Benning thinks "munching minutes" is the most important trait a defenseman can have.

2) Counterpoint: OEL isn't a just drafted 18 year old, but a seasoned, ex-captain who probably felt underappreciated in his last few years and *wants* to take leadership here. ie. wouldn't be surprised if he gets Edler's A right off the bat.

3) See above.

4) I can't spin this Maybe it's because the majority of morons in the Vancouver hockey market still value +/- ?

5) Well, yeah. They *have to* be assuming he'll be better, because otherwise the trade is just f***ing bonkers. Jim doesn't need to get into the deep (hypothetical) "analysis" that went into projecting a bounceback performance from OEL off the cuff - he's just saying they expect he will be better, acknowledging that he needs to be better than he was last year. This is, incredibly, maybe the most defensible point of everything you've highlighted.

6) But the last 30 year old wasn't a cerebral Swedish defenseman that is pals with the Sedins. But really, all he had to say here is that a guy like Tanev just had a great year at that age once he was able to get some health stuff sorted out and they feel OEL could be the same. It doesn't really bear out when you look at the entire data set of 30 year old defensemen, but most casual fans or even relatively dialed-in fans don't really know that, and a big part of Jim's job is to be a cheerleader.

I'm not sure how people have any faith in the guy, but it makes sense that the general market would gobble up the OEL acquisition. It has all the elements of "success" in the eyes of a casual hockey fan. Exactly as you said - out-of-date populist takes. OEL is the Wall.

 

[F A N]

So the savior of the defensive structure is only going to be working with forwards and PP? And the defence is going to be run by the guy that’s overseen the last few years of train wreck. Sounds good! Plenty to be hopeful about.

The hope is that Shaw would have lots of input. Baumer "running the defense" doesn't mean that Shaw can't be an influential voice and have the Canucks playing with more structure.

I don't think anyone should be surprised by this. It was reported by Kuzma right from the beginning and Shaw himself has talked about the opportunity to essentially try something new. Baumer has to do something. He's Green's right hand man.

 

[rypper]

It's been said before, but it feels like a forgone conclusion that if the team stumbles out the gate Green and Baumgartner get the axe and Shaw takes over. I imagine they'll give King a longer look, and Gustafson will move to the bench.

 

[BrentSopelsHair]

I think top 4 Dmen are better able to maintain their play than forwards into their 30s. You rarely see a Louie Eriksson or Wayne Simmonds type drop in performance in Dmen due to age.

An aging top 4 Dman can still be effective relying on their skill, experience, and hockey IQ. Doesn't work as well for top 6 forwards.

I mean, I am not super motivated to search for the oldest players in hockey so I can't really back up anything I'm about to say with facts, but I would bet that while it's probably a quite similar aging/talent curve, it's probably just far more apparent in forwards, who likely have plunging counting stats when they decline whereas defenders getting less mobile leads to them getting scored on more, which shows in plus/minus and advanced stats but not so much in the stats that are discussed by most fans.

 

[MS]

So the savior of the defensive structure is only going to be working with forwards and PP? And the defence is going to be run by the guy that’s overseen the last few years of train wreck. Sounds good! Plenty to be hopeful about.

Like I said in another thread, this whole summer has just been about ignoring truth and reality and inventing totally false comforting narratives about how awesome everything is.

NARRATIVE : Brad Shaw is this super-awesome new assistant coach who will totally fix everything about our blueline, the players on that blueline, and our defensive system!

REALITY : Brad Shaw is the new PP coach and nobody hyping him had ever even heard of him 2 months ago. Columbus was 24th in the NHL defensively last year and all of Jones/Werenski/Savard were flatlining or regressing over multiple prior seasons. And how did the 'Magic Ian Clark' thing work out last year in fixing Holtby?

NARRATIVE : Jason Dickinson is an elite shutdown 3rd line C!

REALITY : Dickinson played most of last year on the wing, has never been a 3rd line C in the NHL for any extended period, and it sounds like Green is planning on using him as a winger (predictably, given his 44% faceoff record).

NARRATIVE : OEL was super-stressed out having to be the saviour #1D in Arizona. He'll do way better being just one of the group on a better team!

REALITY : OEL was being tasked with being the #3 defender in Arizona (and failed miserably last year). He's leaving a lower-pressure situation in a non-hockey market to come to a major hockey market where the GM has anointed him the team's new #1 defender. He's going to be asked to do more on a worse blueline with more pressure on him.

NARRATIVE : Last season was a write-off due to the COVID outbreak!

REALITY : The team was basically eliminated from the playoffs when COVID hit and then had a better record after the outbreak than before. This isn't remotely an excuse for anything.

 

[F A N]

I mean, I am not super motivated to search for the oldest players in hockey so I can't really back up anything I'm about to say with facts, but I would bet that while it's probably a quite similar aging/talent curve, it's probably just far more apparent in forwards, who likely have plunging counting stats when they decline whereas defenders getting less mobile leads to them getting scored on more, which shows in plus/minus and advanced stats but not so much in the stats that are discussed by most fans.

Well the oldest player last year was Chara followed by Thornton and Marleau. That isn't quite relevant since we're talking about 30-35 age range.

I think it's easy to see how a top 4 Dman losing some mobility can still defend and make a good first pass whereas a top 6 forward losing some mobility might translate to him not getting into the areas of the ice that he is use to getting to and lose time and space which is the difference between being able to score and not being able to score. Plunging counting stats is the key though. A former top 6 player who has slowed down and doesn't produce offensively can be adequately replaced by a younger guy who brings more speed. It's not quite the same for Dmen. It's easier to insert a Hawryluk type into your lineup to replace a bottom 6 player than a Chatfield into a defensive pairing. You can go around the league and see how many teams have a 34-35 year old Dman who is still playing at a level of a top 4 Dman vs forwards. Last season we had one in Edler. Montreal went to the Finals with Weber. When St. Louis won the Cup, Bouwmeester and Chara were playing prominent roles in the Finals.

You can even look at our 2011 team. All our top 4 calibre Dmen except Ehrhoff were still legitimately top 4 calibre Dmen in their 34-35 aged years: Edler, Hamhuis, Bieksa, and Salo. Given the season Tanev had last season I think he'll age pretty well too. Heck, even Ballard might have continued playing if not for his concussions. Before that, Ohlund and Mitchell were also pretty effective at age 34-35.

 

[Melvin]

Like I said in another thread, this whole summer has just been about ignoring truth and reality and inventing totally false comforting narratives about how awesome everything is.

NARRATIVE : Brad Shaw is this super-awesome new assistant coach who will totally fix everything about our blueline, the players on that blueline, and our defensive system!

REALITY : Brad Shaw is the new PP coach and nobody hyping him had ever even heard of him 2 months ago. Columbus was 24th in the NHL defensively last year and all of Jones/Werenski/Savard were flatlining or regressing over multiple prior seasons. And how did the 'Magic Ian Clark' thing work out last year in fixing Holtby?

NARRATIVE : Jason Dickinson is an elite shutdown 3rd line C!

REALITY : Dickinson played most of last year on the wing, has never been a 3rd line C in the NHL for any extended period, and it sounds like Green is planning on using him as a winger (predictably, given his 44% faceoff record).

NARRATIVE : OEL was super-stressed out having to be the saviour #1D in Arizona. He'll do way better being just one of the group on a better team!

REALITY : OEL was being tasked with being the #3 defender in Arizona (and failed miserably last year). He's leaving a lower-pressure situation in a non-hockey market to come to a major hockey market where the GM has anointed him the team's new #1 defender. He's going to be asked to do more on a worse blueline with more pressure on him.

NARRATIVE : Last season was a write-off due to the COVID outbreak!

REALITY : The team was basically eliminated from the playoffs when COVID hit and then had a better record after the outbreak than before. This isn't remotely an excuse for anything.

NARRATIVE: The team was really good the year before, in a completely normal, 82 game season.

REALITY: The team in 2019-20 was outplayed almost every night but rode extraordinary health and elite goaltending to a spot in the standings where they were barely clinging to a playoff spot (7-9-2 with 4 regulation wins in 18 games) when Tanev and Markstrom got hurt and COVID conveniently paused the season at the perfect moment.

 

[MS]

NARRATIVE: The team was really good the year before, in a completely normal, 82 game season.

REALITY: The team in 2019-20 was outplayed almost every night but rode extraordinary health and elite goaltending to a spot in the standings where they were barely clinging to a playoff spot (7-9-2 with 4 regulation wins in 18 games) when Tanev and Markstrom got hurt and COVID conveniently paused the season at the perfect moment.

It was a 17th place finish, and plummeting.

17th place.

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

NARRATIVE: The team was really good the year before, in a completely normal, 82 game season.

REALITY: The team in 2019-20 was outplayed almost every night but rode extraordinary health and elite goaltending to a spot in the standings where they were barely clinging to a playoff spot (7-9-2 with 4 regulation wins in 18 games) when Tanev and Markstrom got hurt and COVID conveniently paused the season at the perfect moment.

NARRATIVE: The team showed they could compete with the best teams in the bubble and have added pieces to help them take the next step.

REALITY: Berube helped Vancouver by sticking with Jordan Binnington who put up a 4.20 GAA and a .800SV% in a playoff series despite having Jake Allen on the bench who helped St Louis win 2 games and get back into the series. Vancouver continued to get severely outplayed thereafter getting outshot 273 to 169 over 7 games with Vegas and relying Demko and his .985 SV% to at least give them a chance.

 

[F A N]

Lots of story tellers on this board.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

“another level” means to the NHL level?

 

[Hit the post]

“another level” means to the NHL level?

Has OJ legitimately advanced beyond the AHL level or been gifted this opportunity?

 

[F A N]

“another level” means to the NHL level?

As a bonafide NHL regular? There's value if Juolevi can continue to develop. Even if he's not a top 4 Dman, he's young, has talent, and he's cheap.

Has OJ legitimately advanced beyond the AHL level or been gifted this opportunity?

I think so. I thought he played pretty well in his minutes. Green didn't really trust him but again, I think we should try and exact value out of the Juolevi types where we can have him in his prime years for cheap. That's one reason why I was hoping for 2 years.

 

[supercanuck]

It's been said before, but it feels like a forgone conclusion that if the team stumbles out the gate Green and Baumgartner get the axe and Shaw takes over. I imagine they'll give King a longer look, and Gustafson will move to the bench.

Didn't they just sign new deals though? Would Aquilini be willing to pay them for doing nothing while also paying for new coaches?

 

[rypper]

Didn't they just sign new deals though? Would Aquilini be willing to pay them for doing nothing while also paying for new coaches?

2 year deals. So this year and next. Shaw and Gustafson are under contract already and they'll probably cheap out and put Higgins or Jarvis on a coaching role.

 

[Peen]

I don't like having to go into seasons with the mindset of "if everything goes right, we will still have this fairly limited ceiling".

especially when you consider the amount of long term salary we added and futures given up the past three years.

 

[Peen]

2 year deals. So this year and next. Shaw and Gustafson are under contract already and they'll probably cheap out and put Higgins or Jarvis on a coaching role.

@HiggsBroson would disagree that that's cheaping out

 

[rypper]

@HiggsBroson would disagree that that's cheaping out

Perhaps there's another recently or otherwise retired Canuck that could take that position.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

Perhaps there's another recently or otherwise retired Canuck that could take that position.

Sven Butenschon is coaching at UBC...

Sven Butenschon - Men's Hockey Coach - University of British Columbia Athletics

 

[F A N]

I don't like having to go into seasons with the mindset of "if everything goes right, we will still have this fairly limited ceiling".

especially when you consider the amount of long term salary we added and futures given up the past three years.

If everything goes right do we have a fairly limited ceiling? Personally, I think if everything goes right we could make a deep run in the playoffs.

 

[MS]

If everything goes right do we have a fairly limited ceiling? Personally, I think if everything goes right we could make a deep run in the playoffs.

Not with that blueline.

 

[F A N]

Not with that blueline.

I think they can.

 

[Peen]

If everything goes right do we have a fairly limited ceiling? Personally, I think if everything goes right we could make a deep run in the playoffs.

I guess I agree somewhat because of how variable hockey playoffs are.

If everything hits and OEL is his old #1D self of 5 years ago and Poolman was hiding as Chris tanev, and all the other variables improve - then we'll probably be a top ten team that could make a run.

But - I just don't like when teams do what we did (again by process and not the actual targets we had on D) unless they're at least in that ~7-10 range and they've got some depth in the prospect pool and it's sustainable. We were a bottom five team trying to push for a playoff spot. Not to even win the division or get far - the bar is at "let's make the playoffs and hope to get lucky"

It's just poor practice and I don't think you can convince me otherwise. There's just too much "hope". No one with hope and optimism is being realistic. I don't think we'll be as bad as we were this past season, but it's just frustrating because I don't see people realistically account for stagnation or regression. It's all "THIS GUY IS GOING TO IMPROVE AND EVERYONE IS GONNA GET BETTER"

 

[MS]

I think they can.

With the exception of Buffalo and maybe Detroit it's the worst blueline group in the NHL. It's awful.

There isn't a single guy you'd be comfortable with in high-leverage minutes and there isn't a single guy I'd call a #1 or #2 or even a #3 defender. Every single LS defender needs to be sheltered to be effective.

If by 'going right' you mean OEL finishes top-5 in Norris voting and Poolman is the new Tanev and Rathbone wins a Calder ... I guess? But in a realistic 'things go right' - which would be stuff like 'OEL bounces back a bit as a decent #3 defender - that blueline still sucks.

And they still have the same coach, same defensive coach, and same system that has consistently made bluelines worse than the sum of their parts for the past several years.

 

[Fatass]

Clearly we are in for another disastrous season. So does Green get replaced by Shaw by game 20 or 40?
Does Benning get the axe during the season, or after?