The Jarmo Thread

[Cowumbus]

- getting werenski back
- getting provorov + putting him in a more suitable role
- getting severson to help out werenski
- giving one of jiricek/boqvist a real d-partner in provorov
- going from larsen to babcock
- in-house bottom six upgrades (voronkov/texier)

Yes they will be better next year.

- getting a future 1C with the 3rd overall pick (2024 ETA)
- experience/an offseason of growth for the young guys
- the expectation of better injury luck next year

Hopefully

they've transformed the top four without actually giving any players up or putting themselves in a cap crunch. they still have a ton of surplus assets – especially young right-handed defenseman now, which they can use to address the center position.

What top6 C are you getting for Peeke and picks??

it's a bit harder to see it right now, but assuming they're not done making moves, whatever they do next will make them immensely better in 23-24.

I’m not saying they won’t be better in 23-24. They would have been better bringing back the exact same roster just due to injuries.

then, in 24-25, without any other moves being made:
- 2023 3OA will be ready
- mateychuk will likely be NHL ready
- same with svozil (who i expect to be an NHL regular by the end of this season)
- another year of growth for young guys

instead of putting that all on those young guys, though, they'll be on a better team with way more solid veterans around the lineup.

you said you don't know what the long-term plan is – this is it. it's pretty clear. they don't have all of the pieces in place yet, but they're adding some of those pieces now, and have the means to add the rest later.

I am not talking about their timeline to compete. I don’t understand signing Severson to an 8 year deal, while Boqvist is 22 years old, Jiricek in the system and Gudbranson stuck on the roster for 3 more years. Peeke under contract too. What is the plan for Boqvist? Does this signify that they are giving up on him, or is Jiricek playing in the minors? If Jiricek is playing in the minors that’s great, but I don’t have faith in the CBJ org to do that. There is talk that we want a C, do we not believe in KJ as a center now? Are we not going to give him a chance? If a stop gap until he’s ready, why not continue to use Roslovic? The goaltending is still not fixed either, idk what to do about that, but less cap space = less likely to buy out Elvis.

The jackets are going to have a boatload of cap space in 2 years as is much of the league. The money their spending is just fine

Are they? Raises for Texier, Marchenko, Johnson, Sillinger, Tarasov, Chinakhov, Voronkov, with Jiricek the year after.

Roslovic, Robinson, Bean come off the books in 2 years but Robinson just made 1.6, and I think all the players listed above are worth more than him.

Maybe you’re right, but if Kent Johnson has another season like last year he will get like 5 million minimum.

 

[Cowumbus]

I think the Severson trade is a case where they're trading some of their potential 6-8 years out (when Jiricek/KJ/Carlsson? will be in their primes). They'll be slightly less capable of surrounding them with elite players in what might be the cup window because they have so much cap committed to a mid-30s D-man.

But you acquired the late 1st in the first place by trading one of your two remaining top 4D, because you couldn't sign him. Parlaying that back into a top 4D is reasonable and keeps it even. Keeping the pick at the expense of the roster would actually be a step more towards a nuclear rebuild, which I think would be a too risky strategy long term in addition to entailing more pain in the next few years.

At that point Gudbranson will be gone so we will be used to playing with an anchor

You could also just keep the pick and just sign a D via UFA. A healthy D core improves the team easily.

 

[BB88]

I think a young team with a bunch of good draft picks needs to be thinking of how people are going to slot in. Next year we have KJ’s contract. Do we go the Jack Hughes/Leon Draisaitl route and try to lock him up for 8 years? Do we risk bridging him and then he plays himself into a better contract? When you have high draft picks, there are different issues than when you are managing a playoff caliber team. You better be thinking about the cap 5 years from now if you are the GM.

Toronto gave too much money to their core and it has hurt their team. Edmonton, however, did a great job on contracts with the core and then wasted cap space on bad contracts for ancillary players. I hope we are not going to follow the Edmonton path.

You keep it in mind but it can’t be the driving factor, it’s too far away& too many things are going to happen between.

Columbus cap is set up really well moving forward

 

[Byrral]

I don't know if any of these recent moves will work but I will give Jarmo some props for getting a couple more NHL players on the roster. I don't care about the contracts as it's not my money. I want to see a more competitive team and these moves help. It also allows them the opportunity to let the young defenseman marinate elsewhere. I support most attempts to improve the current on ice product because last season was an embarrassment.

 

[majormajor]

You could also just keep the pick and just sign a D via UFA. A healthy D core improves the team easily.

Sure and then you're probably paying in term instead of with the pick. Like Ryan Graves on a six year deal is probably worse than trading a late 1st for Provorov on a two year deal. Graves is really slowing down (in a way that Severson isn't yet) and you would regret that deal I think. Same for most of the LD on the market. I had hopes that maybe we could do a $7.5m x 2 type deal with Orlov, because he's older, but even at his age will likely get term somewhere.

 

[Cowumbus]

Sure and then you're probably paying in term instead of with the pick. Like Ryan Graves on a six year deal is probably worse than trading a late 1st for Provorov on a two year deal. Graves is really slowing down (in a way that Severson isn't yet) and you would regret that deal I think. Same for most of the LD on the market. I had hopes that maybe we could do a $7.5m x 2 type deal with Orlov, because he's older, but even at his age will likely get term somewhere.

I wanted Soucy! But yeah who knows

 

[BB88]

Sure and then you're probably paying in term instead of with the pick. Like Ryan Graves on a six year deal is probably worse than trading a late 1st for Provorov on a two year deal. Graves is really slowing down (in a way that Severson isn't yet) and you would regret that deal I think. Same for most of the LD on the market. I had hopes that maybe we could do a $7.5m x 2 type deal with Orlov, because he's older, but even at his age will likely get term somewhere.

If Orlov was willing to go for less term either Was or Boston would have him signed already.

Every rumour around him has suggested he wants term

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

I think a young team with a bunch of good draft picks needs to be thinking of how people are going to slot in. Next year we have KJ’s contract. Do we go the Jack Hughes/Leon Draisaitl route and try to lock him up for 8 years? Do we risk bridging him and then he plays himself into a better contract? When you have high draft picks, there are different issues than when you are managing a playoff caliber team. You better be thinking about the cap 5 years from now if you are the GM.

Toronto gave too much money to their core and it has hurt their team. Edmonton, however, did a great job on contracts with the core and then wasted cap space on bad contracts for ancillary players. I hope we are not going to follow the Edmonton path.

Are you kidding me? Edmonton has been a good Dman and Goalie away from going deep. Hockey doesn't get much more exciting than Edmonton on the power play with Leon and Conner... granted I do like a little Defense with my coffee, but for God's sake lets net criticize other teams mgmt right now. Unless you want to rip the crap out of Chicago that is always going to be fair game... said the guy that grew up as a kid with Bobby Hull and Stan Makita pj's.

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

My biggest question right now is if the guys will buy into a Babcock system. If the players buy in & he doesn't act the fool... we might really start to turn this thing around. I think we would have been much better regardless but these changes: coaching, and defense should really pay off. Hope they all come here with a chip on their shoulder. Columbus getting the outlet pass to Laine and Gudreau... let the breakaways come many and often.

 

[NotCommitted]

They should be tanking for 6 more years, then break the bank in 2030! Imagine the top9 with
(26 & 24 first interchangeable depending on chemistry / match ups)

26 1st - Carlsson - 25 first
24 1st - Johnson - Marchenko
27 1st - Sillinger - 29 1st

I'm not being serious.

 

[NotCommitted]

Gaudreau is 29, Jenner is 29, Laine is signed through the 25-26 season. By that time the current prospects / young players, including 23 1st should be ready to contribute. That's a pretty natural window to aim for. Not saying they should be sacrificing "everything" for that, but that's not what they're doing. If you want any chance of being competitive while Gaudreau is still in his prime (and Jenner for that matter) then the team needs to be start improving now, they don't have to become a contender through 1 off season worth of moves, but they need to get to a position where the young guys are not expected to turn the ship around by themselves. It's not a winning strategy to hope your rookie D-men or freshly drafted forwards are going to fix everything.

 

[5th Line Fanatic]

They should be tanking for 6 more years, then break the bank in 2030! Imagine the top9 with
(26 & 24 first interchangeable depending on chemistry / match ups)

26 1st - Carlsson - 25 first
24 1st - Johnson - Marchenko
27 1st - Sillinger - 29 1st

I'm not being serious.

We'd be assured of 10 straight Cups! How can we not choose this option?

 

[EDM]

There continues to an obsession with the idea that KJ, who has not played center since high school, will be an NHL center. But there is one very important person who does not talk about KJ as a center:Jarmo.

 

[CBJx614]

There continues to an obsession with the idea that KJ, who has not played center since high school, will be an NHL center. But there is one very important person who does not talk about KJ as a center:Jarmo.

When he plays, he's naturally taking up the responsibilities of the center. He plays down low and helps start the breakout, he's not up high waiting at the point or blue line for the breakout.

And to be honest everything that happened last season is out the window. New coach, new system, new plan. I'm curious to see how Babs slots the offense

You already brought up one of the biggest questions, the other is what happens to Laine? Is the C experiment still on or will Babs immediately shut it down? And what will happen with Silly? I'd love if they forced him to work his way up from the AHL next season.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

They should be tanking for 6 more years, then break the bank in 2030! Imagine the top9 with
(26 & 24 first interchangeable depending on chemistry / match ups)

26 1st - Carlsson - 25 first
24 1st - Johnson - Marchenko
27 1st - Sillinger - 29 1st

I'm not being serious.

I knew. But thanks for confirming it.

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

There continues to an obsession with the idea that KJ, who has not played center since high school, will be an NHL center. But there is one very important person who does not talk about KJ as a center:Jarmo.

Didn’t he say KJ was a center on draft night?

 

[Monk]

There continues to an obsession with the idea that KJ, who has not played center since high school, will be an NHL center. But there is one very important person who does not talk about KJ as a center:Jarmo.

You know who else talks about Kent Johnson being a center? Kent Johnson.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

You know who else talks about Kent Johnson being a center? Kent Johnson.

Then lets make sure he plays there from now on and not be wishy washy on if he plays on the wing or not. It's time to stop babying the development and let him do the job with no regrets.

 

[EDM]

That comment from Jarmo was 2 years ago. But there has been nothing in the way the team has used him since then that suggests they still see him as a legit center candidate. As I said earlier this off-season, if KJ shows up for training camp packing an additional 10-15 pounds of muscle, I bet Jarmo would be willing to give him a shot.

 

[MoeBartoli]

That comment from Jarmo was 2 years ago. But there has been nothing in the way the team has used him since then that suggests they still see him as a legit center candidate. As I said earlier this off-season, if KJ shows up for training camp packing an additional 10-15 pounds of muscle, I bet Jarmo would be willing to give him a shot.

Was Johnson not playing center because of Jarmo? Or was it Lars?

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

That comment from Jarmo was 2 years ago. But there has been nothing in the way the team has used him since then that suggests they still see him as a legit center candidate. As I said earlier this off-season, if KJ shows up for training camp packing an additional 10-15 pounds of muscle, I bet Jarmo would be willing to give him a shot.

It isn’t Jarmo’s call.

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

It isn’t Jarmo’s call.

It is if he *wants* it to be.

But let’s hope he trusts his new HC hire.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

It is if he *wants* it to be.

But let’s hope he trusts his new HC hire.

So we have evidence of Jarmo forcing his head coach to utilize a player a certain way? (Not rumor. Not conjecture. Not as an explanation of a roster decision “I” don’t understand.)

 

[cbjthrowaway]

What top6 C are you getting for Peeke and picks??

they can very easily get a medium-term stopgap top six center (hayes, kuznetsov) without even giving up peeke.

even so, they can (and should) look to move some of their roster players for picks. peeke does stand out as the obvious choice there, as does robinson. they'll get something (even if it's not much) for roslovic. if they want to swing a bit bigger, something around boqvist + chinakhov as a base could appeal to a lot of teams.

I don’t understand signing Severson to an 8 year deal, while Boqvist is 22 years old, Jiricek in the system and Gudbranson stuck on the roster for 3 more years. Peeke under contract too. What is the plan for Boqvist? Does this signify that they are giving up on him, or is Jiricek playing in the minors?

instead of forcing both jiricek and boqvist into top four roles, they can now pick one and do a better job of setting them up to succeed by putting them in a second pair role next to provorov.

they can move boqvist if they find a deal they like. if not, they can keep jiricek in the AHL. pretty straightforward.

then if jiricek really pops off in the next year, severson slides down to the second pair and helps mateychuk adjust after provorov moves on. again, pretty clear plan.

There is talk that we want a C, do we not believe in KJ as a center now? Are we not going to give him a chance? If a stop gap until he’s ready, why not continue to use Roslovic?

a few reporters mentioned cbj having big concerns with jack's work ethic. that's not going to fly under babcock or mesh with the "elevate the standard" talk.

as for KJ as a center… i don't think you want to force him into it or prevent him from having the chance. acquiring a guy like hayes (who, along with kj and jenner, can play either center or wing) gives them flexibility. so the stopgap approach absolutely still works.

The goaltending is still not fixed either, idk what to do about that, but less cap space = less likely to buy out Elvis.

giving elvis another year gives them more options. the ingredients are there for him to bounce back to some degree. he will either:
1. bounce back so much that they don't need to move him (unlikely, but possible)
2. bounce back a little bit + have less money left = become moveable (most likely outcome)
3. not get any better, but have less money left = gets bought out (unlikely imo)

either way, it makes more sense to do that for one more year just to see. then 2024-25 is when they aim for the competitive window to open. this year is house money, but positioning the team to succeed this year better equips them to succeed beyond this year.

Raises for Texier, Marchenko, Johnson, Sillinger, Tarasov, Chinakhov, Voronkov, with Jiricek the year after.

jiricek's ELC slid so we have three more seasons before he even hits RFA. marchenko will get a bridge deal – his SH% was unsustainably high but his overall production was lower than people realize (~40 point pace).

the best player on that list by far is kent johnson, but a manageable aav bridge deal makes sense for both sides, given that:

1. he'll be a 10.2(c) RFA: ineligible to sign an offer sheet or go to arb (i.e. CBJ has all the leverage)
2. an 8-year deal isn't in CBJ's best interest – he'd be 29 at expiry and have leverage to push for an 8 year deal or test UFA. better to bridge him, then go 8 years after the bridge, and have him hit UFA at 31-33.
3. KJ's camp will look to cash in on a bigger cap in a few years

sillinger, voronkov (2 years left), texier and chinakhov are destined for bottom six roles at best (and AHL at worst) to start the season. they'll get cheap bridge deals. tarasov has two years left and bad NHL + AHL results to date.

if two of those guys (let's say sillinger + chinakhov) really pop off and earn top six roles… that's 1) a good problem to have and 2) is an easy problem to solve – they'd just trade laine's $8.7m cap hit since they'd need to free up a spot for the 3rd overall pick (another ELC) anyway.

literally nothing to worry abou with any of these.

Roslovic, Robinson, Bean come off the books in 2 years but Robinson just made 1.6, and I think all the players listed above are worth more than him.

Maybe you’re right, but if Kent Johnson has another season like last year he will get like 5 million minimum.

Out:

• Roslovic: $4m
• one of Peeke/Boqvist (trade): $2.7m
• Bean: $2.2m
• Robinson: $1.6m
• NET: $10.5m freed up cap space

Increases:

• KJ bridge: $5m (+$4.075m over his ELC)
• Marchenko bridge: $4m (+$3.075m over ELC)
• Sillinger bridge: $2m (+$1.075m over ELC)
• Chinakhov bridge: $2.5m (+1.7m over current)
• Texier bridge: $2.5m (+$1m over current)
• NET: $10.95m new cap hit

I went high on the estimates for some of those (given that the last three guys listed will be in bottom six roles) and didn't account for other moves (i.e. both of Peeke/Boqvist), cap growth (again, likely) or their current cap space (about $6m).

they. will. be. fine.

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

So we have evidence of Jarmo forcing his head coach to utilize a player a certain way? (Not rumor. Not conjecture. Not as an explanation of a roster decision “I” don’t understand.)

I’m not saying there’s evidence. I’m saying Jarmo is the boss of the HC. He *can* tell the HC what to do, if he pleases.

This is fairly common in other sports, as well. As front offices improve their analytics, they get more involved. MLB FO’s give the managers lineup cards. NFL FO’s give coaching staffs weekly notes. How forceful they are, really just depends on the org.

I doubt we’d be too privy to specific examples of Jarmo forcing a HC’s hand re: lines and positions. But it’s probably happened at least once over the years.