The Jarmo Thread

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Robert

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Jarmo needs to go, JD should never have been brought back and believe it or not Mike Priest and the Foundation are still meddling in the Blue Jacket organization... The CBJ fans are the best tho, one of the few NHL fan bases that enjoy watching a losing team....
 

KCbus

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I think Jarmo's on a knife's edge.

He's had ten full seasons as GM. We've made the playoffs in half of them. That's certainly better than his predecessors. But we're 0 for the last 3, and it can certainly be argued that he needs to prove he can be successful without John Tortorella, which is when he had his only real competitive teams.

His seat has to be getting warm. And if it isn't, then ownership needs to sell to someone who gives a shit. The Kraken are in their second season of existence, and they're in the playoffs in a league with a bigger field. Vegas made the damn Finals in their first year of existence. We've won one playoff series (not counting the bubble year). It's not enough for this team to be "a playoff contender, sorta, kinda, sometimes, in the mix" team anymore. Management needs to either make progress or make way.

Now, we're starting from such a low point that we can "make progress" and still miss the playoffs next season. But there has to be significant improvement, and the playoffs are a MUST in '24-'25.
 
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Robert

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I think Jarmo's on a knife's edge.

He's had ten full seasons as GM. We've made the playoffs in half of them. That's certainly better than his predecessors. But we're 0 for the last 3, and it can certainly be argued that he needs to prove he can be successful without John Tortorella, which is when he had his only real competitive teams.

His seat has to be getting warm. And if it isn't, then ownership needs to sell to someone who gives a shit. The Kraken are in their second season of existence, and they're in the playoffs in a league with a bigger field. Vegas made the damn Finals in their second year of existence. We've won one playoff series (not counting the bubble year). It's not enough for this team to be "a playoff contender, sorta, kinda, sometimes, in the mix" team anymore. Management needs to either make progress or make way.

Now, we're starting from such a low point that we can "make progress" and still miss the playoffs next season. But there has to be significant improvement, and the playoffs are a MUST in '24-'25.
Jarmo, Priest and the foundation influence needs to go.... It's NHL hockey not a day care center...
 
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ViD

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Do you guys feel if the Jackets don’t show many signs of life next year, Jarmo is gone ? He’s currently the fourth longest tenured GM in the league, but the lack of success might end his 10 year career with the CBJ.

Making play offs in 23-24 seems like an impossible task, but if we’re fighting for a lottery lead again and guys like Elvis, Gud are not improving much , it might be time…
 
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stevo61

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Do you guys feel if the Jackets don’t show many signs of life next year, Jarmo is gone ? He’s currently the fourth longest tenured GM in the league, but the lack of success might end his 10 year career with the CBJ.

Making play offs in 23-24 seems like an impossible task, but if we’re fighting for a lottery lead again and guys like Elvis, Gud are not improving much , it might be time…
like if they flop the season? Maybe. I wonder if Dubas interests them. Regardless though I bet he gets to atleast finish his contract
 

squashmaple

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Do you guys feel if the Jackets don’t show many signs of life next year, Jarmo is gone ? He’s currently the fourth longest tenured GM in the league, but the lack of success might end his 10 year career with the CBJ.

Making play offs in 23-24 seems like an impossible task, but if we’re fighting for a lottery lead again and guys like Elvis, Gud are not improving much , it might be time…
I don’t think Jarmo will be the GM any longer at the end of his current contract. Now, whether it’s because he is fired or because JD retired and he is promoted remains to be seen.
 

stevo61

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I’d rather lose games next years and develop players than make short term moves to make the team win an extra 10-15 games and hurt the future. I hope the powers that be understand that.
I think it depends on how it looks. You cant be developing multiple kids in the NHL in a season like last year back to back. I dont think we will be a playoff contender but I dont think we can afford to be sub 60 point team again. Moves for now can help the future also
 
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CBJWerenski8

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Do you guys feel if the Jackets don’t show many signs of life next year, Jarmo is gone ? He’s currently the fourth longest tenured GM in the league, but the lack of success might end his 10 year career with the CBJ.

Making play offs in 23-24 seems like an impossible task, but if we’re fighting for a lottery lead again and guys like Elvis, Gud are not improving much , it might be time…
I think the only way jarmo is gone is if the season goes as bad as it was this year and the next coach is a complete failure from the jump. Typically I think a new coach buys you at least 2 years. I highly doubt jarmo actually thinks this roster is good enough to make the playoffs this coming season (right now at least). So it’s about making progress, which should be pretty easy.

TLDR I think he has two seasons minimum barring disaster.
 

Cyclones Rock

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I think the only way jarmo is gone is if the season goes as bad as it was this year and the next coach is a complete failure from the jump. Typically I think a new coach buys you at least 2 years. I highly doubt jarmo actually thinks this roster is good enough to make the playoffs this coming season (right now at least). So it’s about making progress, which should be pretty easy.

TLDR I think he has two seasons minimum barring disaster.
Maybe for a GM who hasn't been on the job 11 years. However.........

It's Columbus. It's McConnell. It's Priest. It's John "I love NY" Davidson. So you're probably right.
 

EspenK

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I think it depends on how it looks. You cant be developing multiple kids in the NHL in a season like last year back to back. I don't think we will be a playoff contender but I dont think we can afford to be sub 60 point team again. Moves for now can help the future also
Which is why guys shouldn't be rushed into the league. Let them develop on a really good, strong Monsters team and fill in with one year deals. Sillinger, Chinakov, Bemmstrom,maybe Jiricek, maybe Carlsson all should be in Cleveland to start. Only bring them up if they are really ready.
 

CalBuckeyeRob

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In a sport where they reach free agency based on age and not NHL service time, I think you have to test them in the NHL sooner rather than later. Especially when you have a lot of prospects competing for opportunities. Being great at Cleveland won't tell you if they can handle the NHL.
 

Cowumbus

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On this topic of whether or not Jarmo is the draft wizard he claims to be, I did some research. For purposes of this research, I’m defining NHL players to be either players slated to play a full season for a team this year, or have 100+ GP in the NHL since they were drafted. I’m also only going to count draft years 2013-2017, because that’s really what would create an accurate sample size as it’s too soon to judge either 2018 or 2019.
In the period of 2013-2017:
Jarmo has drafted the following players with 100+ GP in the NHL:
  • Wennberg
  • Dano
  • Bjorkstrand
  • Milano
  • Werenski
  • Nutivaara
  • PLD
In addition, he has drafted the following players slated to play a full season with the team this year:
  • Gavrikov
  • Texier
  • Bemstrom
  • Elvis
There is also these guys playing NHL games for other teams this year, but for the purpose of this analysis I won’t count them because it’s still somewhat presumptuous that they will be NHL players:
  • Abramov
  • Davidsson
Players who still look to have NHL potential drafted in this timeframe:
  • Peeke
  • Tarasov
  • Stenlud (maybe)
  • Carlsson (maybe)
In a 5 year span, Jarmo has found players already in the NHL on 11/36 picks, and debatable NHL players on 6/36 picks. I’m willing to only count the 11 current NHL players for this, but that’s anywhere from 11-17 NHL players out of 36 draft picks.

How many other GM’s have a 31%-47% success rate in finding NHL players in that timeframe?

ANH: 10/28
ARI: 9/38
BOS: 8/33
BUF: 9/42
CAL: 7/33
CAR: 9/37
CHI: 7/42
COL: 5/35
DAL: 8/36
DET: 9/39
EDM: 8/38
FLA: 9/34
LAK: 8/34
MIN: 5/32
MTL: 9/32
NSH: 6/38
NJD: 9/37
NYI: 7/32
NYR: 5/32
OTT: 7/29
PHI: 8/40
PIT: 5/27
SJS: 6/35
STL: 7/34
TBL: 8/39
TOR: 9/38
VAN: 9/35
WSH: 6/27
WPG: 9/39

Based on the criteria I set up, only Anaheim has a better track record of finding NHL players through the draft in that time period than Jarmo does, in terms of % hit. The only caveat there is 2/10 of those Ducks players were taken beyond the first two rounds of the draft, whereas 4/11 of CBJ guys were taken 3rd round or later. That track record should speak for itself. I'd also be happy to go through and see how many NHL players each team has drafted from 3rd round and beyond in that timeframe. That's not even counting Vehvilainen and TFW from 2018 either. So yeah, I'm not super convinced that Jarmo isn't at the very least an extremely above average GM when it comes to drafting.
Be curious to see how this actually works out now vs then (as of Nov 2019).

Because by my calculations 2014-2019, I wouldn’t call Jarmo a draft wizard or at least an extremely above average GM when drafting. We had a lot of draft picks though.

 
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GoJackets1

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Be curious to see how this actually works out now vs then (as of Nov 2019).

Because by my calculations 2014-2019, I wouldn’t call Jarmo a draft wizard or at least an extremely above average GM when drafting. We had a lot of draft picks though.


This is cool, thank you for taking the time to respond to this.

In regards to the data, I noticed a couple of things. First, you note 2013-2019, but 66 picks. I believe that 66 picks is the count between 2013-2022, where 45 is the correct amount for 2013-2019. Second, the "over 150 games" requirement excludes Elvis, who is at 150 games. IMO, we should count 11 players in that category. It's also a bit steep of a requirement for the 2018/2019 drafted guys, but I'm fine to leave that as is for now.

So in terms of ratio, that would give Jarmo an 11/45 rate in finding NHL players who have already played over 150 games in that timeframe. I think the implication here is that Carolina is a very good drafting team, and they have a 14/55, which is essentially the exact same ratio in that timeframe.

I could stop there, but our 11 omits Marchenko, Foudy, Texier, and Stenlund as well who are all currently lineup regulars that will reach that 150 threshold. Their 14 omits Jack Drury and Jake Bean- both of whom will also likely reach that threshold soon, since they are lineup regulars. 15/45 vs 16/55 in that category.

You are absolutely correct that Jarmo needs to hit more home runs, as I believe I may have said in my initial post. But he is still definitely above average if not top 3-5 in the league at finding NHL quality players. And with how high we've been drafting recently, I can only imagine that this % will go up, looking back in another 3-4 years to include 2020-2023.
 

Monk

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This is cool, thank you for taking the time to respond to this.

In regards to the data, I noticed a couple of things. First, you note 2013-2019, but 66 picks. I believe that 66 picks is the count between 2013-2022, where 45 is the correct amount for 2013-2019. Second, the "over 150 games" requirement excludes Elvis, who is at 150 games. IMO, we should count 11 players in that category. It's also a bit steep of a requirement for the 2018/2019 drafted guys, but I'm fine to leave that as is for now.

So in terms of ratio, that would give Jarmo an 11/45 rate in finding NHL players who have already played over 150 games in that timeframe. I think the implication here is that Carolina is a very good drafting team, and they have a 14/55, which is essentially the exact same ratio in that timeframe.

I could stop there, but our 11 omits Marchenko, Foudy, Texier, and Stenlund as well who are all currently lineup regulars that will reach that 150 threshold. Their 14 omits Jack Drury and Jake Bean- both of whom will also likely reach that threshold soon, since they are lineup regulars. 15/45 vs 16/55 in that category.

You are absolutely correct that Jarmo needs to hit more home runs, as I believe I may have said in my initial post. But he is still definitely above average if not top 3-5 in the league at finding NHL quality players. And with how high we've been drafting recently, I can only imagine that this % will go up, looking back in another 3-4 years to include 2020-2023.

This is the shit I'm here for. Great posts.
 

Cowumbus

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This is cool, thank you for taking the time to respond to this.

In regards to the data, I noticed a couple of things. First, you note 2013-2019, but 66 picks. I believe that 66 picks is the count between 2013-2022, where 45 is the correct amount for 2013-2019.
You are right, I messed that up :facepalm:
Second, the "over 150 games" requirement excludes Elvis, who is at 150 games. IMO, we should count 11 players in that category.
See below
It's also a bit steep of a requirement for the 2018/2019 drafted guys, but I'm fine to leave that as is for now.

So in terms of ratio, that would give Jarmo an 11/45 rate in finding NHL players who have already played over 150 games in that timeframe. I think the implication here is that Carolina is a very good drafting team, and they have a 14/55, which is essentially the exact same ratio in that timeframe.
I’m not sure where either fall WRT the entire NHL, the Metro took me long enough.
I could stop there, but our 11 omits Marchenko, Foudy, Texier, and Stenlund as well who are all currently lineup regulars that will reach that 150 threshold. Their 14 omits Jack Drury and Jake Bean- both of whom will also likely reach that threshold soon, since they are lineup regulars. 15/45 vs 16/55 in that category.

You are absolutely correct that Jarmo needs to hit more home runs, as I believe I may have said in my initial post. But he is still definitely above average if not top 3-5 in the league at finding NHL quality players. And with how high we've been drafting recently, I can only imagine that this % will go up, looking back in another 3-4 years to include 2020-2023.
Probably should have said this before, I took out goalies from all draft picks. Also, I am only counting the GP and stats for the team that originally drafted them. Bean will count for Carolina, Stenlund for us.
 
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Viqsi

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Let the record show, I think Jarmo is pushing all the chips in much too early.

We will see how it plays out over the next few years.
I don't think so. I think this is more of a "get the vets in to eat the heavy minutes so the kids have room to grow" approach. The highest value future we've traded away so far was the LA pick; we still have all our prospects and our 3rd overall, and our 2nd this year.

If he starts eating into those reserves I'll be a bit more concerned, but as it is this all looks aboveboard to me.
 

Crede777

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I don't think so. I think this is more of a "get the vets in to eat the heavy minutes so the kids have room to grow" approach. The highest value future we've traded away so far was the LA pick; we still have all our prospects and our 3rd overall, and our 2nd this year.

If he starts eating into those reserves I'll be a bit more concerned, but as it is this all looks aboveboard to me.
The issue is the spending which isn't a problem right now but I'm sure the message from ownership is if you're spending then you better be winning.

This move gets the Jackets back to the mushy middle. The real question is if you think Marchenko, Johnson, Jiricek, and 3rd OA developing can push us above the mushy middle. If you think they need another 1st or 2nd OA pick in there to actually escape the middle, then this is a bad move. If you (like me) think the guys we have can do it, then it's a sensible move.
 

JohnnyJacket13

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Let the record show, I think Jarmo is pushing all the chips in much too early.

We will see how it plays out over the next few years.

I disagree. The future hasn’t been compromised (at least yet). We still will be picking 3rd this year and adding to a top-3 prospect pool. The cap will be going up 5-6M next off-season and another 5M the year after, so I am not concerned about being squeezed. If the goal was to add bonafide NHLers to the roster to insulate the perpetual youth while still aiming to be competitive for the next 10 years, I think this offseason is off to a great start. Just need to clear out the glut of D and leverage a few assets for a top center (Boqvist+Sillinger+’24 1st has to have a lot of value around the league).
 

Cowumbus

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I don't think so. I think this is more of a "get the vets in to eat the heavy minutes so the kids have room to grow" approach. The highest value future we've traded away so far was the LA pick; we still have all our prospects and our 3rd overall, and our 2nd this year.

If he starts eating into those reserves I'll be a bit more concerned, but as it is this all looks aboveboard to me.
It depends what they give up for Hayes

I disagree. The future hasn’t been compromised (at least yet). We still will be picking 3rd this year and adding to a top-3 prospect pool. The cap will be going up 5-6M next off-season and another 5M the year after, so I am not concerned about being squeezed. If the goal was to add bonafide NHLers to the roster to insulate the perpetual youth while still aiming to be competitive for the next 10 years, I think this offseason is off to a great start. Just need to clear out the glut of D and leverage a few assets for a top center (Boqvist+Sillinger+’24 1st has to have a lot of value around the league).
This is exactly what we SHOULD NOT be doing.
 
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