The Fate of Dubas

[therealkoho]

First you tell Nylander that if he wants to stay his training camp is going to pure hell. Otherwise we can trade you today. If he wants to stay and will change his attitude then you tell Tavares that it hasn’t worked here and that his greatest value to the team is his cap space. Ask him to provide a list of teams he’d prefer and tell him you’ll try to accommodate.

Pick up phone and start calling other teams.

Not opposed to this strategy in the least, somebody has to take control and stock pile some 2023 picks

on July 1st 2023 you offer Mr Matthews 8 years with an AAV of 14.25m
A NMC for years 1 through 5
Year 6 a 15 team NTC
Years 7 and 8 a 10 team NTC

if he hasnt signed by Nov 1st start calling people

Same deal for Mr Marner but with an AAV of 12.75

These guys either want to be Leafs or they don't, it's time to fish or cut bait.

 

[arso40]

Dubas needs to go. And I'm not even a Dubas hater. He has a lot of strengths. And he's done a lot of things I like.

But he's shown a complete lack of understanding of how to build a winning team. The moves he's made this offseason are uninspiring to say the least.

Look at how this team is built...

You've got Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares. I like that part. But behind them you've got Bunting, Kerfoot, Robertson, Jarnkrok, Malgin, Engvall, Kampf, Aube-Kubel and Gaudette.

Do you know how many goals our bottom NINE forwards have scored in the playoffs? A combined 15 goals in 192 games! That is just atrocious. Over an 82 game season that is a 6 goal pace.

And people wonder why we can't win in the playoffs. There's literally no mystery. It's clear as day. And Dubas either can't see it or is too stubborn to adapt.

Love the first three captains gotta go he’s holding us bac we could have riellys partner and a second line center or top six forward with nylander playing center which forces him to be defensively responsible and not a cheater we then can get rid of Brodie though I like him he’s not a top pairing dman he was let go from Calgary after playing on there third pair he’s done a decent job but he’s a stop gap not the solution but yet still I rather keep him then must last thing I need is to be reminded on why durzi is a king and not a leaf if we didn’t get muzzin we would have stayed the course and looked really good by now thank the boys for rushing greatness

 

[centipede2233]

Not opposed to this strategy in the least, somebody has to take control and stock pile some 2023 picks

on July 1st 2023 you offer Mr Matthews 8 years with an AAV of 14.25m
A NMC for years 1 through 5
Year 6 a 15 team NTC
Years 7 and 8 a 10 team NTC

if he hasnt signed by Nov 1st start calling people

Same deal for Mr Marner but with an AAV of 12.75

These guys either want to be Leafs or they don't, it's time to fish or cut bait.do you really think the leafs win a round much less a cup with matthews at a 14.25 mil caphit and marner at 12.75…the answer is no

 

[therealkoho]

@centipede2233

Once the cap is at 92 then yes, if the cap is still 82 then no

The cap will stay static for one more season at the very least, after which it will start to rise, so by season 2024/25 it should be at 92+. Extensions for Matthews and Marner could only kick in by 24/25 and no sooner.

 

[Srsly]

High risk signings like Murray and Samsonov are definitely things that could come back to bite him given this is an important follow up season. If Campbell puts up 915 goaltending on an Oilers squad with even worse defense than us and both our new goalies are sub 900 within the first two or three months j could see him terminated.

That said, signing depth forwards and defensemen with NHL experience for debatably less than market value isn’t ground for termination. I feel like most of those guys are set to push the kids on the Marlies and perhaps worse case scenario act as a short term NHL stopgap if those Prospects aren’t ready. If someone like Niemela can’t steal a spot from Benn, he’s simply not ready

 

[Nineteen67]

Not just favourites, but Montreal and Columbus were statistically the worse playoff team respectively ….still couldn’t win

Columbus had the same number of points as the Leafs

 

[centipede2233]

@centipede2233

Once the cap is at 92 then yes, if the cap is still 82 then no

The cap will stay static for one more season at the very least, after which it will start to rise, so by season 2024/25 it should be at 92+. Extensions for Matthews and Marner could only kick in by 24/25 and no sooner.

The problem with your theory is that covid infections don’t come back. the pattern seems to be covid cases rise drastically during the cold months (ie.during the nhl season). If covid can shutdown or limit fan attendance before, it can happen again which in turn would extend the flat cap scenario for years.

 

[therealkoho]

The problem with your theory is that covid infections don’t come back. the pattern seems to be covid cases rise drastically during the cold months (ie.during the nhl season). If covid can shutdown or limit fan attendance before, it can happen again which in turn would extend the flat cap scenario for years.

Yeah well I'm just trying to look on the bright side of life

 

[Tak7]

Sure but relying on guys like that to consistently make an NHL team is wishful thinking

We aren't relying on those guys? They are depth pieces on 1-year deals that can be buried at no cap hit.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Good Lord! Every good team is in cap trouble... some of the bad ones too. No one could possibly have anticipated what the pandemic has done to salary management in the NHL. The Leafs have had winning percentages of .688 and .701 for the past two seasons. They're not exactly struggling.

Remind me how many playoff series they've won again? Oh yeah, none.

Participation Ribbons and respect in the handshake line aren't good enough.

 

[Bust]

Surely I can't be the only one bothered by his recent moves

Like the guy is actually wasting his time with these fringe NHLer signings Malgin, Benn, Mete

What is the game plan here? He's rounding up the roster with fringe NHLers on cheap deals and our team looks way worse on paper

I can't see him lasting till the end of the season

I’m going to ramble here…

I think that’s subjective. I mean, our paper tiger teams of the past have garnered us constant results. Maybe this is a better mix for Dubas. Who knows.

I think it all boils down to pressure and culture. I think there’s a certain personality type out there that we need to be chasing. Unlike other clubs, I truly think this is an area we’ve overlooked. I think we get caught up in “player types” (power forward, playmaker, big-RHD, ext) vs “personally types” that we should be focusing on.

We got really, really lucky with Matthews. Outside of him being an absolute elite, high end player, he’s a gamer in the truest sense. He loves the spotlight. He loves the cameras on him. He’s built for it. He’s a rockstar. I think we got lucky with Reilly aswell, while he’s not that “franchise” level of player - he consistently plays his game and plays very well under pressure. Muzzin is cut from that same cloth.

Even if we compare these guys directly to some of our other high end players, you can certainly see the difference in how they deal with pressure. Let’s take Marner for example: the kid is unreal, some of the best vision and hockey IQ I’ve ever seen in a player. But we’ve all seen it, the puck over the glass, the “D-zone” gaffs while on the power play, the slowwwww start he got off too after the contract when he knew fans/media were questioning him.

Look at all the players we’ve “broken”/couldn’t cut it over the last few years: Andersen, Campbell, Mzarek, Gardiner, Kessel (his last season), phaneuf, Barrie, the list goes on. I think it’s VERY telling that we chew up goalies and Dmen, the pressure is immense on these positions.

But that is never going to change here; what needs to change is how we’re vetting these guys. I hate to be that guy, but we need more
Toronto born players, leaf fans, guys that not only get it, but have a track record of “getting it”. Players and coaches with swagger, tough guy energy. Players and coaches who exude what it takes to win IN TORONTO.

As for culture, we are way too nice. I’m sick of it. I love Willy, I was at his first ever game. I love the guy. But the fact that he talks about the promise dubas made that he won’t be traded while dubas is GM, I’m sorry but that’s bullshit. And that’s not on Nylander. Accountability needs to come from the top.

I love JT. I love that he came home. I love that he walked in, as our first legitimate top-line captain since Sundin and had a monster season. Love the guy. I was ready to hurt someone after the first NYI game. But none of the boys showed up. No guts. No balls. And that’s been a constant since JT was named captain. It’s a culture - again, that needs to come from the top.

How can guys gain confidence from that soft, nurturing, elementary culture, who may not have those levels to their personality? They can’t. When it’s all pats on the back in the room afterwards. There’s no aggression, no passion, no commitment to each other. Everyone is safe.

I knew it after the NYI game and especially after the MTL series. This isn’t the team. I’m sorry boys this just isn’t it.

Sorry for the ramble.

 

[andora]

I’m going to ramble here…

I think that’s subjective. I mean, our paper tiger teams of the past have garnered us constant results. Maybe this is a better mix for Dubas. Who knows.

I think it all boils down to pressure and culture. I think there’s a certain personality type out there that we need to be chasing. Unlike other clubs, I truly think this is an area we’ve overlooked. I think we get caught up in “player types” (power forward, playmaker, big-RHD, ext) vs “personally types” that we should be focusing on.

We got really, really lucky with Matthews. Outside of him being an absolute elite, high end player, he’s a gamer in the truest sense. He loves the spotlight. He loves the cameras on him. He’s built for it. He’s a rockstar. I think we got lucky with Reilly aswell, while he’s not that “franchise” level of player - he consistently plays his game and plays very well under pressure. Muzzin is cut from that same cloth.

Even if we compare these guys directly to some of our other high end players, you can certainly see the difference in how they deal with pressure. Let’s take Marner for example: the kid is unreal, some of the best vision and hockey IQ I’ve ever seen in a player. But we’ve all seen it, the puck over the glass, the “D-zone” gaffs while on the power play, the slowwwww start he got off too after the contract when he knew fans/media were questioning him.

Look at all the players we’ve “broken”/couldn’t cut it over the last few years: Andersen, Campbell, Mzarek, Gardiner, Kessel (his last season), phaneuf, Barrie, the list goes on. I think it’s VERY telling that we chew up goalies and Dmen, the pressure is immense on these positions.

But that is never going to change here; what needs to change is how we’re vetting these guys. I hate to be that guy, but we need more
Toronto born players, leaf fans, guys that not only get it, but have a track record of “getting it”. Players and coaches with swagger, tough guy energy. Players and coaches who exude what it takes to win IN TORONTO.

As for culture, we are way too nice. I’m sick of it. I love Willy, I was at his first ever game. I love the guy. But the fact that he talks about the promise dubas made that he won’t be traded while dubas is GM, I’m sorry but that’s bullshit. And that’s not on Nylander. Accountability needs to come from the top.

I love JT. I love that he came home. I love that he walked in, as our first legitimate top-line captain since Sundin and had a monster season. Love the guy. I was ready to hurt someone after the first NYI game. But none of the boys showed up. No guts. No balls. And that’s been a constant since JT was named captain. It’s a culture - again, that needs to come from the top.

How can guys gain confidence from that soft, nurturing, elementary culture, who may not have those levels to their personality? They can’t. When it’s all pats on the back in the room afterwards. There’s no aggression, no passion, no commitment to each other. Everyone is safe.

I knew it after the NYI game and especially after the MTL series. This isn’t the team. I’m sorry boys this just isn’t it.

Sorry for the ramble.

That was beautifully said

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I’m going to ramble here…

I think that’s subjective. I mean, our paper tiger teams of the past have garnered us constant results. Maybe this is a better mix for Dubas. Who knows.

I think it all boils down to pressure and culture. I think there’s a certain personality type out there that we need to be chasing. Unlike other clubs, I truly think this is an area we’ve overlooked. I think we get caught up in “player types” (power forward, playmaker, big-RHD, ext) vs “personally types” that we should be focusing on.

We got really, really lucky with Matthews. Outside of him being an absolute elite, high end player, he’s a gamer in the truest sense. He loves the spotlight. He loves the cameras on him. He’s built for it. He’s a rockstar. I think we got lucky with Reilly aswell, while he’s not that “franchise” level of player - he consistently plays his game and plays very well under pressure. Muzzin is cut from that same cloth.

Even if we compare these guys directly to some of our other high end players, you can certainly see the difference in how they deal with pressure. Let’s take Marner for example: the kid is unreal, some of the best vision and hockey IQ I’ve ever seen in a player. But we’ve all seen it, the puck over the glass, the “D-zone” gaffs while on the power play, the slowwwww start he got off too after the contract when he knew fans/media were questioning him.

Look at all the players we’ve “broken”/couldn’t cut it over the last few years: Andersen, Campbell, Mzarek, Gardiner, Kessel (his last season), phaneuf, Barrie, the list goes on. I think it’s VERY telling that we chew up goalies and Dmen, the pressure is immense on these positions.

But that is never going to change here; what needs to change is how we’re vetting these guys. I hate to be that guy, but we need more
Toronto born players, leaf fans, guys that not only get it, but have a track record of “getting it”. Players and coaches with swagger, tough guy energy. Players and coaches who exude what it takes to win IN TORONTO.

As for culture, we are way too nice. I’m sick of it. I love Willy, I was at his first ever game. I love the guy. But the fact that he talks about the promise dubas made that he won’t be traded while dubas is GM, I’m sorry but that’s bullshit. And that’s not on Nylander. Accountability needs to come from the top.

I love JT. I love that he came home. I love that he walked in, as our first legitimate top-line captain since Sundin and had a monster season. Love the guy. I was ready to hurt someone after the first NYI game. But none of the boys showed up. No guts. No balls. And that’s been a constant since JT was named captain. It’s a culture - again, that needs to come from the top.

How can guys gain confidence from that soft, nurturing, elementary culture, who may not have those levels to their personality? They can’t. When it’s all pats on the back in the room afterwards. There’s no aggression, no passion, no commitment to each other. Everyone is safe.

I knew it after the NYI game and especially after the MTL series. This isn’t the team. I’m sorry boys this just isn’t it.

Sorry for the ramble.

THIS^.

 

[CupcakeSprinkles]

I thought dubas has done a pretty good job overall. I didn’t love the Mrazek contract, but he’s managed pretty well considering we lost to the finalists / defending cup champs in 7

Team needs to make the next step though and we’ll see again next season else he’s fried

 

[horner]

Surely I can't be the only one bothered by his recent moves

Like the guy is actually wasting his time with these fringe NHLer signings Malgin, Benn, Mete

What is the game plan here? He's rounding up the roster with fringe NHLers on cheap deals and our team looks way worse on paper

I can't see him lasting till the end of the season

Depth if we need extra players for the playoffs alot of teams throw veterans in the minors.

 

[CaptainCrunch17]

@centipede2233

Once the cap is at 92 then yes, if the cap is still 82 then no

The cap will stay static for one more season at the very least, after which it will start to rise, so by season 2024/25 it should be at 92+. Extensions for Matthews and Marner could only kick in by 24/25 and no sooner.

When the cap goes up, salaries go up. When the cap goes down, salaries go down. When the cap is flat, salaries stay flat.

The flat cap argument is just a convenient excuse for people trying to defend Dubas who allocated too high of a percentage of his available cap space to too few players.

If Dubas is still around in a few years when it’s time to resign Matthews, Marner and Nylander, their salaries will go even higher and the combined total will probably command a similar percentage of the salary cap as they do now.

It’s a relative.

Let me ask this.

If the cap was 200 million right now, would Giordano have signed for close to league minimum?

How about Spezza last season?

I don’t think so.

Tavares is the only player who’s salary will likely decline from where it is now and that’s because his production will have declined when his contract ends.

It became apparent Dubas had a completely flawed cap strategy, when he signed Tavares and thought he could keep Marner, Matthews and Nylander on the roster too and still round out the team with enough quality players to be successful.

His only chance might have been if he had found a way to have had entry level players coming up being paid league minimum that actually made a significant impact. But he traded away any chance of that happening trying to be creative at the trade deadline with picks and prospects.

Dubas’s approach hasn’t worked and it won’t work.

But it appears Shanahan is going to let Dubas run things his way until the bitter end and it’s categorically proven it will never and can never work.

It seems stupid to me as it’s likely to waste the Matthews era, but that seems to be where we are.

 

[ToneDog]

When the cap goes up, salaries go up. When the cap goes down, salaries go down. When the cap is flat, salaries stay flat.

The flat cap argument is just a convenient excuse for people trying to defend Dubas who allocated too high of a percentage of his available cap space to too few players.

If Dubas is still around in a few years when it’s time to resign Matthews, Marner and Nylander, their salaries will go even higher and the combined total will probably command a similar percentage of the salary cap as they do now.

It’s a relative.

Let me ask this.

If the cap was 200 million right now, would Giordano have signed for close to league minimum?

How about Spezza last season?

I don’t think so.

Tavares is the only player who’s salary will likely decline from where it is now and that’s because his production will have declined when his contract ends.

It became apparent Dubas had a completely flawed cap strategy, when he signed Tavares and thought he could keep Marner, Matthews and Nylander on the roster too and still round out the team with enough quality players to be successful.

His only chance might have been if he had found a way to have had entry level players coming up being paid league minimum that actually made a significant impact. But he traded away any chance of that happening trying to be creative at the trade deadline with picks and prospects.

Dubas’s approach hasn’t worked and it won’t work.

But it appears Shanahan is going to let Dubas run things his way until the bitter end and it’s categorically proven it will never and can never work.

It seems stupid to me as it’s likely to waste the Matthews era, but that seems to be where we are.

Of course he would have but the league minimum would be $2m.

Bang on post.

 

[Leafsguard]

It’s Matthews and Marner, but Marner is grossly overpaid IMO. By at least 2M when you look at what other guys have signed for. So I don’t know. I don’t think Ovi and Backstorm were ever considered so overpaid.

Think alot of ppl forget the taxes in Toronto and just how expensive it is. Look to sign in Toronto sometime it equates to overpay. Someone mentioned Rantanen's $9.5M Cap hit is where Marner's should be correct but with taxes you need to pay him more for him to get the $9.5 M.
There should be something in the CBA that takes the tax issue as teams in Florida/Tampa/Vega's with the no state tax their money is actually worth more!

 

[Shooter2x]

When the cap goes up, salaries go up. When the cap goes down, salaries go down. When the cap is flat, salaries stay flat.

The flat cap argument is just a convenient excuse for people trying to defend Dubas who allocated too high of a percentage of his available cap space to too few players.

If Dubas is still around in a few years when it’s time to resign Matthews, Marner and Nylander, their salaries will go even higher and the combined total will probably command a similar percentage of the salary cap as they do now.

It’s a relative.

Let me ask this.

If the cap was 200 million right now, would Giordano have signed for close to league minimum?

How about Spezza last season?

I don’t think so.

Tavares is the only player who’s salary will likely decline from where it is now and that’s because his production will have declined when his contract ends.

It became apparent Dubas had a completely flawed cap strategy, when he signed Tavares and thought he could keep Marner, Matthews and Nylander on the roster too and still round out the team with enough quality players to be successful.

His only chance might have been if he had found a way to have had entry level players coming up being paid league minimum that actually made a significant impact. But he traded away any chance of that happening trying to be creative at the trade deadline with picks and prospects.

Dubas’s approach hasn’t worked and it won’t work.

But it appears Shanahan is going to let Dubas run things his way until the bitter end and it’s categorically proven it will never and can never work.

It seems stupid to me as it’s likely to waste the Matthews era, but that seems to be where we are.

Flat cap is pro-Leaf, there is no excuse to be had anyways. There is not enough cap space for 90% of the league to keep up with the improvement in matthews marner and nylander. Dubas is shitting it away (so far) with his depth and goalie decisions.

 

[therealkoho]

Well holy old heck, is all I got to say

 

[TheProspector]

I don't know who needs to hear this, but the Leafs put up their best season ever last year, and this year, our division competition has weakened a lot more than we have. We'll have another 110+ point season as long as there is *someone* who can sorta stop the puck back there.

 

[Leafsguard]

I don't know who needs to hear this, but the Leafs put up their best season ever last year, and this year, our division competition has weakened a lot more than we have. We'll have another 110+ point season as long as there is *someone* who can sorta stop the puck back there.

Completely agree. If you look at the goalies in the NHL there are 2 Elite (TB/NYR), there are a few above average. When Jack was here the constant narrative was "Jack can't play 60 games, he is good to play 40-50" so why can't this work 2 goalies in Murray and Samsonov playing 41 games each. Ottawa did that years ago with Rhodes and Tugnutt then Tugnutt took the starter job. Samsonov and Murray are a good tandem.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I don't know who needs to hear this, but the Leafs put up their best season ever last year, and this year, our division competition has weakened a lot more than we have. We'll have another 110+ point season as long as there is *someone* who can sorta stop the puck back there.

Tampa and Boston have gotten weaker but a few other teams have got much stronger like Detroit and Ottawa. I'm expecting a little bit more balance to the conference which could take a few points away from us.

 

[Rubyblue]

Dubas has done an excellent job, correcting bad signings. Done as good as any GM could finding cheap players to fill the roster. Unfortunately his drafting is abysmal which highlites the amount of money given to too few players. No team has yet won the Cup with a 10 million dollar player on it and relatively speaking, probably never will. He's lucky he's got a loyal boss in Shanahan or he'd been gone a year ago.

 

[Stinger8]

Not opposed to this strategy in the least, somebody has to take control and stock pile some 2023 picks

on July 1st 2023 you offer Mr Matthews 8 years with an AAV of 14.25m
A NMC for years 1 through 5
Year 6 a 15 team NTC
Years 7 and 8 a 10 team NTC

if he hasnt signed by Nov 1st start calling people

Same deal for Mr Marner but with an AAV of 12.75

These guys either want to be Leafs or they don't, it's time to fish or cut bait.

EVERY big name free agent is signing for less than $10MM and you want to give one over $14MM and another almost $13MM??? This is the most preposterous thing I have read here in a looooong time