The Fate of Dubas

[Strangle]

Surely I can't be the only one bothered by his recent moves

Like the guy is actually wasting his time with these fringe NHLer signings Malgin, Benn, Mete

What is the game plan here? He's rounding up the roster with fringe NHLers on cheap deals and our team looks way worse on paper

I can't see him lasting till the end of the season

What do you expect him to do?

 

[killer1980]

What do you expect him to do?

Dump Nylander and Tavares and build a team, not a bunch of self-entitled players who only care about personal awards and $$$$$.

 

[andora]

I think i remember this crosby % argument from 2 years ago

 

[Throw More Waffles]

What would be "skewed" would be looking at a cap hit percentage based on a cap that didn't exist and wasn't known at time of signing, and pretending it's based off of that. Signings are based off of the cap at time of signing. Crosby signed a 17.30% x 5 year contract - the highest value post-ELC contract ever.

Ah, I see we're back to this wildly inaccurate description of the players.

So when Dubas signed all of those unprecedented dramatic overpayments based on the argument "the cap will increase significantly", that's fair, right?

But when Crosby's agent negotiated a year early for a cap percentage for his client, he can't base things on projected cap increases? Only Dubas can? Are you serious? Why would ANY player sign a year early if it's literally just less cap percentage? How does that make sense?

Can't wait to see this one...

 

[Funk21]

I could see a slow start to the season and shaky goaltending from Murray and Samsonov being the catalyst for a Dubas/Keefe dismissal a la Babcock two months into in 2019-20.

But I think it would be for the slow erosion of talent in the Leafs system and drift away from the original trajectory of the Shanaplan than what happened in free agency this year.

Well he put his faith in them and none of the 4 has stepped in the way they should have. They took the money, neither management nor the players knew a pandemic would cripple this team due to a flat cap.

It’s time they returned the favour. If we take a step back and have to reset then so be it.

It’s not likely the same management team or coach will likely continue on unless we make it to the ECF or SC. There are still core pieces that are just about entering their prime. If a few of the prospects actually pan out(Liljegren, Sandin, Knies, etc) things aren’t as bleak as they seem. Biggest question remains in goal. I don’t think we would win anything with either Andersen or Campbell. Who knows if either Murray or Samasonov will be the answer but both have much higher pedigrees.

Biggest question remains if we can deal Kerfoot and perhaps Muzzin next summer. He is done IMO.

 

[Legion34]

So when Dubas signed all of those unprecedented dramatic overpayments based on the argument "the cap will increase significantly", that's fair, right?

But when Crosby's agent negotiated a year early for a cap percentage for his client, he can't base things on projected cap increases? Only Dubas can? Are you serious? Why would ANY player sign a year early if it's literally just less cap percentage? How does that make sense?

Can't wait to see this one...

Because if you have one. You have to use the other

Facts.

1.) Auston Matthews and crosby BOTH signed prior to the start of their deals. Cap friendly uses the same figure

So according to cap friendly they are the same standard.

2.) both expected the cap to go up. In fact. Matthews waited until the official projection of the cap was 83.5. With the option for the players to use the escalator to go up to 86.

Both Crosby and Matthews projected the cap. Dubas actually made the safer bet that the cap was going up by waiting until the official projection was out.

Then the first time in history the players refused to use the escalator at all. Going into that draft they were still planning on 83.5. Then it changed.

You are making the mistake of conflating people rightly saying the unprecedented pandemic changed things long term and applying it to the 1 year early cap %.

Facts are. At the time of signings crosby signed for 17. Matthews signs for 14. Both guessed the cap was going up. Crosby’s yesr the players voted for the escalator. Matthews they didn’t.

 

[Racer88]

What would be "skewed" would be looking at a cap hit percentage based on a cap that didn't exist and wasn't known at time of signing, and pretending it's based off of that. Signings are based off of the cap at time of signing. Crosby signed a 17.30% x 5 year contract - the highest value post-ELC contract ever.

Ah, I see we're back to this wildly inaccurate description of the players.

Wait a minute. Some people say that Dubas couldn’t have know that the cap wouldn’t be going up when he signed the expensive 3 so he gets a pass but your saying Crosby’s percentage has to be based on what the current year he signed it because the future cap didn’t exist yet.
sounds like a double standard

 

[Dekes For Days]

So when Dubas signed all of those unprecedented dramatic overpayments based on the argument "the cap will increase significantly"

Dubas never signed "unprecedented dramatic overpayments". Dubas signed contracts based on the cap at time of signing that were consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts.

Why would ANY player sign a year early if it's literally just less cap percentage?

It's a trade-off. You sign for what is likely to be a little less in overall dollars, in order to lock in financial security, and take away the risk of a downturn in the 3rd year. Unfortunately, with Babcock abusing our young stars and holding them back offensively, there was likely less incentive for our players to want to sign early.

Some people say that Dubas couldn’t have know that the cap wouldn’t be going up when he signed the expensive 3 so he gets a pass but your saying Crosby’s percentage has to be based on what the current year he signed it because the future cap didn’t exist yet.

You're discussing two different things. Players are signed based on the cap at time of signing. Both Crosby and our RFAs did this. Throughout the history of the cap, the cap rises, and that percentage of the cap decreases over the life of the contract. Unfortunately, due to the unforeseen global pandemic creating a multi-year stagnant cap, the Leafs did not experience this lessening of the cap hit percentage for their players like every prior team did throughout the cap era with their players and contracts - making things unexpectedly tighter.

 

[Bomber0104]

So when Dubas signed all of those unprecedented dramatic overpayments based on the argument "the cap will increase significantly", that's fair, right?

But when Crosby's agent negotiated a year early for a cap percentage for his client, he can't base things on projected cap increases? Only Dubas can? Are you serious? Why would ANY player sign a year early if it's literally just less cap percentage? How does that make sense?

Can't wait to see this one...

The difference is in motivation.

Crosby wants to win Cups.

Our players want to earn the most money possible through their prime years.

It's all about them first.

 

[Dreakmur]

Wait a minute. Some people say that Dubas couldn’t have know that the cap wouldn’t be going up when he signed the expensive 3 so he gets a pass but your saying Crosby’s percentage has to be based on what the current year he signed it because the future cap didn’t exist yet.
sounds like a double standard

Is anyone really surprised? That dude will twist himself into a pretzel to defend every move Dubas has ever made. Totally shameless.

 

[rocketman588]

Is anyone really surprised? That dude will twist himself into a pretzel to defend every move Dubas has ever made. Totally shameless.

You're arguing with a dude who once claimed that our first round loss against Tampa was "basically the conference final" to justify Dubas's failures

It's ok though he'll be lighting up the Sudbury Wolves message board trying to justify why Dubie gave up 7 picks for a Russian import that will never play in the OHL by this time next year

 

[thewave]

I think Dubas' fate after the Leafs will be to live a good comfortable life out in the Soo. Not long from now he will be sitting pretty and telling stories of the time he was an NHL GM.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Is anyone really surprised? That dude will twist himself into a pretzel to defend every move Dubas has ever made.

Personally, I'm not surprised that you jumped into this thread, ignored the discussion at hand, and started throwing around lies and personal attacks about me because I discussed something accurately instead of conforming to your personal hatred of everything the GM does. There was nothing "twisted", and it wasn't even about Dubas, much less "defending" him. The only thing I'm interested in defending is the truth.

That individual was referencing two different things. Players are signed based on the cap at time of signing. Both Crosby and our RFAs did this. Throughout the history of the cap, the cap rises, and the percentage of the cap that a contract takes up decreases over the life of the contract. Unfortunately, due to the unforeseen global pandemic creating a multi-year stagnant cap, the Leafs did not experience this lessening of the cap hit percentage for their star players like every prior team did throughout the cap era with their star players and contracts - making things unexpectedly tighter.

 

[Legion34]

Wait a minute. Some people say that Dubas couldn’t have know that the cap wouldn’t be going up when he signed the expensive 3 so he gets a pass but your saying Crosby’s percentage has to be based on what the current year he signed it because the future cap didn’t exist yet.
sounds like a double standard

Again this is incorrect.

Matthews contract was negotiated the season before when the official projection was known to be 83.5-86

It was unprecedented that the players didn’t use any escalator.

Matthews signed for 14.3% of the cap when it was
Expected to go up. Crosby signed for 17.2%

That’s the same standard.

 

[ACC1224]

Is anyone really surprised? That dude will twist himself into a pretzel to defend every move Dubas has ever made. Totally shameless.

Everyone is aware of their schtick by now. Still think it’s an act, or at least we hope it is.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Everyone is aware of their schtick by now. Still think it’s an act, or at least we hope it is.

Players that sign a year earlier are basing their cap percentage on the projected cap ceiling. If Dubas is defended for signing contracts based on future cap projections, you damn well better believe that Crosby's agent would be doing the same thing when calculating cap percentage.

So the cap percentage argument for people like Crosby is skewed when comparing them to players that didn't sign early.

In 2007/08, Crosby's cap percentage was not 17%. Nope. THAT season, his cap percentage was 1.7%. It can't be both. His new contract started the following season. Crosby made 15.2% of cap. He never ONCE was actually paid 17% of cap. Never.

Again, one percent lower than Matthews. One had a career high of 120 points, the other 69 points. Yikes...

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Dubas never signed "unprecedented dramatic overpayments". Dubas signed contracts based on the cap at time of signing that were consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts.

It's a trade-off. You sign for what is likely to be a little less in overall dollars, in order to lock in financial security, and take away the risk of a downturn in the 3rd year. Unfortunately, with Babcock abusing our young stars and holding them back offensively, there was likely less incentive for our players to want to sign early.

You're discussing two different things. Players are signed based on the cap at time of signing. Both Crosby and our RFAs did this. Throughout the history of the cap, the cap rises, and that percentage of the cap decreases over the life of the contract. Unfortunately, due to the unforeseen global pandemic creating a multi-year stagnant cap, the Leafs did not experience this lessening of the cap hit percentage for their players like every prior team did throughout the cap era with their players and contracts - making things unexpectedly tighter.

Can you show me the actual year that Crosby's cap hit was 17% of the cap? What year was that? I don't mean a number floating around on web sites. I mean the actual season that Crosby's aav counted 17% towards the cap.

This ought to be good...

 

[TheGoldenJet]

I think Dubas' fate after the Leafs will be to live a good comfortable life out in the Soo. Not long from now he will be sitting pretty and telling stories of the time he was an NHL GM.

“I tell ya son, I doobled up so many trades in my hey day as a GM…”

 

[Leaf Fans]

I think Dubas' fate after the Leafs will be to live a good comfortable life out in the Soo. Not long from now he will be sitting pretty and telling stories of the time he was an NHL GM.

Sure, like you telling people how you were on the hockey future board. And about winter. I don't think he retires to the Soo. But 20 or 30 years from now who knows. I disagree that he will spend his whole career in Toronto. He may go to another team after his contract expires. I guess it is possible he re-signs and stays, but usually a GM will have several stints as an NHL GM.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Can you show me the actual year that Crosby's cap hit was 17% of the cap?

Crosby's cap hit percentage was 17.30% of the cap when he signed. He signed for 5 years.

 

[koyvoo]

Indeed, and all Crosby did to earn that was lead his team to a Stanley Cup final, scoring 27 pts in 20 playoff games. It’s as similar at are the sun and the moon.

 

[justashadowof]

We're getting close to that inflection point that happens when younger teams in the division hit their stride and start qualifying for the playoffs. Dubas will absolutely need to have a playoff run with his team before having to meet the likes of a rising Detroit or Ottawa or maybe even Montreal. Dubas and Shanahan have survived a lot of 1st round losses but what they couldn't possibly survive is losing a 1st round playoff series to some division rival that hasn't made the playoffs in 5 or 6 years.

 

[Legion34]

Indeed, and all Crosby did to earn that was lead his team to a Stanley Cup final, scoring 27 pts in 20 playoff games. It’s as similar at are the sun and the moon.

Crosby is the better and more accomplished player. That’s why he got 17%.

3% of AAV is actually a substantial difference 14% is star money (kopitar/price/Tavares). 15% is superstar money (malkin/Kane/toews…. As over rated as he was).

Matthews should be closer to 15-16% as the best player in the league. He signed for reasonable at the time. But a good deal now

 

[Legion34]

The difference is in motivation.

Crosby wants to win Cups.

Our players want to earn the most money possible through their prime years.

It's all about them first.

1.) crosby took way more on his second contrwct

2.) when crosby signed he just came off a massive concussion after missing 2 years with a head/neck injury.

He took 100 million front loaded with no guarantee he would stay healthy

Can you show me the actual year that Crosby's cap hit was 17% of the cap? What year was that? I don't mean a number floating around on web sites. I mean the actual season that Crosby's aav counted 17% towards the cap.

This ought to be good...

Can you show me the actual year matthews cap hit was 14.64% of the cap? I don’t mean the number floating around on web sites. I mean the actual season that Matthews AAV counted 14.64% of the cap.

This ought to be good….

 

[zeke]

We're getting close to that inflection point that happens when younger teams in the division hit their stride and start qualifying for the playoffs. Dubas will absolutely need to have a playoff run with his team before having to meet the likes of a rising Detroit or Ottawa or maybe even Montreal. Dubas and Shanahan have survived a lot of 1st round losses but what they couldn't possibly survive is losing a 1st round playoff series to some division rival that hasn't made the playoffs in 5 or 6 years.

Those young teams better get going soon if they want to catch those old leafs.