The Fate of Dubas

[Bomber0104]

The issue, initially, is that Dubas learmed the hard way by not doing great with contracts to star players. The guy lacked experience, but the years he spent in Toronto, it gave him plenty of opportunities to make mistakes, but Shanahan seems to love him. He now seems to know what he’s doing, but the leash is much shorter.

He knows what he’s doing?

Because we lost in the first round a bit better this past season?

 

[mikeyz]

LoL. Not very likely.

Yes. That’s very likely.

He knows what he’s doing?

Because we lost in the first round a bit better this past season?

It’s unreal how there are posters on here who are STILL defending Dubas.

It really is mind blowing.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Yes. That’s very likely.


It’s unreal how there are posters on here who are STILL defending Dubas.

It really is mind blowing.

No, it is not likely at all. It is however possible, but only slightly.

 

[mikeyz]

No, it is not likely at all. It is however possible, but only slightly.

Lol. Dude, have you really become this accepting to losing in the 1st round that you can’t see it??

Serious question.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Lol. Dude, have you really become this accepting to losing in the 1st round that you can’t see it??

Serious question.

LoL. I expect the team to compete for the Stanley Cup. I see that!

 

[mikeyz]

LoL. I expect the team to compete for the Stanley Cup. I see that!

You certainly have a weird way of showing it, lol.

 

[Leaf Fans]

You certainly have a weird way of showing it, lol.

Honesty is not weird. It is just underappreciated.

 

[mikeyz]

Honesty is not weird. It is just underappreciated.

Well, you seem to be defending the constant 1st round losses, so, forgive me for the misunderstanding.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Well, you seem to be defending the constant 1st round losses, so, forgive me for the misunderstanding.

It doesn't seem like that at all. How could you come to that conclusion?

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Fate of Dubas: Win a round in the playoffs, earn a reprieve. Another first round exit or even miss the playoffs? No chance he survives. This is his make or break year and he has to know it. I hope that doesn't lead to desperate moves. Probably his greatest strength so far has been to block out the noise and stay the course. Sometimes the ballsiest move is to do nothing and that's what he's done with this core and I happen to think that was the best move.

 

[thewave]

Sure, like you telling people how you were on the hockey future board. And about winter. I don't think he retires to the Soo. But 20 or 30 years from now who knows. I disagree that he will spend his whole career in Toronto. He may go to another team after his contract expires. I guess it is possible he re-signs and stays, but usually a GM will have several stints as an NHL GM.

I don't think he will be an NHL GM again. Honestly, if he was fired after the MTL series I think people would give him a shot. If this year is not a deep run it's probably over, maybe an AGM gig. David Nonis went on to become a special assignment Scout for the Ducks and he's a pretty good comparable.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I don't think he will be an NHL GM again. Honestly, if he was fired after the MTL series I think people would give him a shot. If this year is not a deep run it's probably over, maybe an AGM gig. David Nonis went on to become a special assignment Scout for the Ducks and he's a pretty good comparable.

I don't think he is a comparable at all. I guess it is possible that he doesn't get another GM job if he leaves the Leafs, retires or gets fired.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Fate of Dubas: Win a round in the playoffs, earn a reprieve. Another first round exit or even miss the playoffs? No chance he survives. This is his make or break year and he has to know it. I hope that doesn't lead to desperate moves. Probably his greatest strength so far has been to block out the noise and stay the course. Sometimes the ballsiest move is to do nothing and that's what he's done with this core and I happen to think that was the best move.

Not convinced yet this year is his last chance. Shanahan is so stupid he'd probably run it back forever with him until the board fires them both.

 

[thewave]

Crosby is the better and more accomplished player. That’s why he got 17%.

3% of AAV is actually a substantial difference 14% is star money (kopitar/price/Tavares). 15% is superstar money (malkin/Kane/toews…. As over rated as he was).

Matthews should be closer to 15-16% as the best player in the league. He signed for reasonable at the time. But a good deal now

I don't get caught up in the Matthews contract so much. It could have been a bit better but the Marner contract and JT contracts were silly. I even said the JT one was too rich when we brought him on. Nylander was a mere 1m overpay at the time. Basically in hindsight, JT at that money was a mistake and that's not the fault of the man. It's the fault of this continuously inept organizations management.

A lot of people point to Dubas and that's fair, but the reality is there is Shanahan and Larry T, Rogers and Bell above him. I would clear out the whole office top to bottom and restructure. No more Larry T walking the aisles and no more Shanahan or Kyle or any of them. They need to be a lean organization with a tight budget that is results oriented. Right now they are a printing press and know it, no incentive to work for their money because profits are baked into the cake.

 

[supermann_98]

If Murray and Sams play well and we improve on 4th and 100+ points… folks be saying, Dubas got lucky, still run him outta town.

You make it sound like the goal every season is regular season seeding and 100+ points ... when in fact the litmus test is the playoffs and the goal is the Stanley Cup.

If we qualify 8th in the conference and win the cup we're all happy with Dubas or whoever. If we qualify 1st with a President's trophy and have another 1st round failure, yes we will be wanting him run outta town.

Is this concept really so hard for Dubas Stan's to understand?

 

[Legion34]

I don't get caught up in the Matthews contract so much. It could have been a bit better but the Marner contract and JT contracts were silly. I even said the JT one was too rich when we brought him on. Nylander was a mere 1m overpay at the time. Basically in hindsight, JT at that money was a mistake and that's not the fault of the man. It's the fault of this continuously inept organizations management.

A lot of people point to Dubas and that's fair, but the reality is there is Shanahan and Larry T, Rogers and Bell above him. I would clear out the whole office top to bottom and restructure. No more Larry T walking the aisles and no more Shanahan or Kyle or any of them. They need to be a lean organization with a tight budget that is results oriented. Right now they are a printing press and know it, no incentive to work for their money because profits are baked into the cake.

The stats and comparables show that Matthews. JT and willy were all completely fair. At the time. Willy took too long.

Matthews has out performed his AAV. Willy has too. JT has not. Even then. A 27 year old 2 x hart finalist gets 13.8% of the cap every time.

He literally took the lowest offer on the day of ufa

Marner was about 1-1.25 over but he was mad at lou for bonus lies. He has out performed his contract but definitely hadn’t early all 10.93 at the time. He should have got the Rants contract plus whatever bonus money.

 

[WillyC]

You make it sound like the goal every season is regular season seeding and 100+ points ... when in fact the litmus test is the playoffs and the goal is the Stanley Cup.

If we qualify 8th in the conference and win the cup we're all happy with Dubas or whoever. If we qualify 1st with a President's trophy and have another 1st round failure, yes we will be wanting him run outta town.

Is this concept really so hard for Dubas Stan's to understand?

No, the goal is to win the Stanley cup… you are trying to make them sound like some sort of Cinderella team.

They’re legitimate contenders to win it all.

 

[thewave]

The stats and comparables show that Matthews. JT and willy were all completely fair. At the time. Willy took too long.

Matthews has out performed his AAV. Willy has too. JT has not. Even then. A 27 year old 2 x hart finalist gets 13.8% of the cap every time.

He literally took the lowest offer on the day of ufa

Marner was about 1-1.25 over but he was mad at lou for bonus lies. He has out performed his contract but definitely hadn’t early all 10.93 at the time. He should have got the Rants contract plus whatever bonus money.

Other teams are doing better than ours at getting team friendly deals. They are also doing a better job at balancing out the roster for playoff performance. We have a gamble in net right now. What team that is seriously competitive and in the hunt gambles in net outside Colorado last season. It's like 1 in 20 odds of winning once you make the SCF alone (with a tender brought in that way).

I know you can cherry pick all these contracts and % of this and that, but at the end of the day... Winning is all that matters and Tampa is one of the best teams at managing quality at position vs cap. They are always a PO threat and are winners. We are now, perennial first round exit specialists and hoping to change that by using the same strategies that failed us before.

I have a very red forehead from all the facepalming I am doing over this team.

 

[centipede2233]

Fate of Dubas: Win a round in the playoffs, earn a reprieve. Another first round exit or even miss the playoffs? No chance he survives. This is his make or break year and he has to know it. I hope that doesn't lead to desperate moves. Probably his greatest strength so far has been to block out the noise and stay the course. Sometimes the ballsiest move is to do nothing and that's what he's done with this core and I happen to think that was the best move.

Yeah because the definition of insanity is….

 

[justashadowof]

Not convinced yet this year is his last chance. Shanahan is so stupid he'd probably run it back forever with him until the board fires them both.

Something I've eluded to after the season is that corporations don't actually seem to really care what the end customer wants any longer. Corps have become emboldened. Corps now believe they've got a wrestle hold on messaging that is reinforced through their allies in all forms of media. Advertising isn't all that necessary any longer as long as the corporation minds its p's and q's and checks the current correct social agenda boxes. The "news" will promote your product if need be. The government will privilege your product and punish your competition. In the Toronto sports universe this means that no local corporate media entity is openly critical of the Toronto sports teams and are in essence little more than promotional arms for the local sports teams.

 

[centipede2233]

I don't get caught up in the Matthews contract so much. It could have been a bit better but the Marner contract and JT contracts were silly. I even said the JT one was too rich when we brought him on. Nylander was a mere 1m overpay at the time. Basically in hindsight, JT at that money was a mistake and that's not the fault of the man. It's the fault of this continuously inept organizations management.

A lot of people point to Dubas and that's fair, but the reality is there is Shanahan and Larry T, Rogers and Bell above him. I would clear out the whole office top to bottom and restructure. No more Larry T walking the aisles and no more Shanahan or Kyle or any of them. They need to be a lean organization with a tight budget that is results oriented. Right now they are a printing press and know it, no incentive to work for their money because profits are baked into the cake.

Whoever does the hiring for president and gm needs to effin go. Over and over the inept management of this franchise is on a staggering roll….

 

[Racer88]

The stats and comparables show that Matthews. JT and willy were all completely fair. At the time. Willy took too long.

Matthews has out performed his AAV. Willy has too. JT has not. Even then. A 27 year old 2 x hart finalist gets 13.8% of the cap every time.

He literally took the lowest offer on the day of ufa

Marner was about 1-1.25 over but he was mad at lou for bonus lies. He has out performed his contract but definitely hadn’t early all 10.93 at the time. He should have got the Rants contract plus whatever bonus money.

Each one of the expensive 3’s contracts are not horrible taken individuall, it’s when you have 3 of them in just the forward position and then add in Willy’s, that becomes a problem

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

Each one of the expensive 3’s contracts are not horrible taken individuall, it’s when you have 3 of them in just the forward position and then add in Willy’s, that becomes a problem

have to keep the nice assets you actually have. yes they are all in forward but who is this high paying elite dman we should have instead?

we never come across one. So take what you can have and figure out how to win with that no? We have a core that can win it but a GM who still thinks 4th line is not needed

 

[Legion34]

Other teams are doing better than ours at getting team friendly deals. They are also doing a better job at balancing out the roster for playoff performance. We have a gamble in net right now. What team that is seriously competitive and in the hunt gambles in net outside Colorado last season. It's like 1 in 20 odds of winning once you make the SCF alone (with a tender brought in that way).

I know you can cherry pick all these contracts and % of this and that, but at the end of the day... Winning is all that matters and Tampa is one of the best teams at managing quality at position vs cap. They are always a PO threat and are winners. We are now, perennial first round exit specialists and hoping to change that by using the same strategies that failed us before.

I have a very red forehead from all the facepalming I am doing over this team.

1.) tax free markets are doing a “better” job. Specifically when they provided full sb. High tax markets like NYR. LA. SJ. Chicago do NOT do a better job. They signed their players for higher percentage of the cap despite winning/American markets/ better weather.

2.) looking at the production of the players and comparing percentage of the cap is not “cherry picking”. It’s literally how it’s done.

3.) Tavares literally signed for less than confirmed offers. It’s not comparing similar players across markets at similar times. It’s literally the Same plater
On the same day. That is the best possible example.

4.) teams who signed players for “less” on their contracts pre pandemic were generally in line with production then blew up. Mack was worse than nylander and signed for more. Pasta was pretty much identical to willy.

We cherry pick those examples and ignore that dubas just got a 60 pt player for 950k x 2. Rielly signed for 2 million less than nurse

Toronto had the fortunate/unfortunate combo of 3 elite players blowing up at the same time. It’s “unforutunate” for this fan base as they complain about contracts.

But they ignote that. Mack missed the playoffs 5 times in 6 years.

No one looks at things objectively. Its just grass is greener.

 

[Nineteen67]

Fate of Dubas: Win a round in the playoffs, earn a reprieve. Another first round exit or even miss the playoffs? No chance he survives. This is his make or break year and he has to know it. I hope that doesn't lead to desperate moves. Probably his greatest strength so far has been to block out the noise and stay the course. Sometimes the ballsiest move is to do nothing and that's what he's done with this core and I happen to think that was the best move.

His entire focus is on winning one round and getting a contract extension, which is understandable from his point of view.

It’s far too early to predict, but the way the conference is looking they could win the Atlantic and draw a weak WC opponent.