The Fate of Dubas

[Dekes For Days]

It's looking like Dubas has yet again overpaid. Coming into this offseason the Top 3 UFA defencemen would've been Klingberg, Lindholm & Rielly.

Klingberg at $7M per for 1
Lindholm at $6.5M per for 8
Rielly at $7.5M per for 8

Coming into this offseason? Rielly was signed over 9 months ago to a good deal. Not sure why you think a couple worse defensemen getting less money makes Rielly overpaid.

 

[Legion34]

Funny you mentioned McDavid, he signed a max term 8 year contract in 2018-2019, a year before Matthews for 12.5M per year.

McDavid will be 29 when his contract is up and he’s an RFA.

Matthews will be 26 and has a NMC in his last year before becoming an RFA.

I’d suggest Chiarelli signed a much better contract for the Oilers.

1.) he did. In my opinion Mcdavid has been better than Matthews. It’s much closer than people thought but Mcdavid is better. He has a better contract. I would trade Matthews for mcdavid in a second

2.) Matthews and Mcdavids contracts are fundamentally different for two reasons. -the tv deal and the success of Vegas.

-Mcdavid signed before Vegas was a hit. The history of nhl expansion in the south has been years of failure followed by occasional and transient success. People weren’t predicting a massive cap increase at the time
-the new tv deal coming up.

In Matthews year every single Rfa player singed for 3-6. With the cap going up like crazy. They wanted to time it.

Matthews and Mcdavid have the same agency. The idea that they would screw over the golden goose for Matthews is silly. The logistics changed.

This is well known.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Because through absolutely no fault of Matthews/crosby/dubas/ whoever

The cap went up a record 14.2% in the next year. Which crosby Had no bearing on.

2 years later the cap % dropped. It was up and down. Some won. Some lost.

Matthews the cap went up 2% when it was supposed to go up an extra 3-5 million. Which Matthews had no bearing on.

Crosby signed for what he was worth. The cap went up a ton then slowed.

Matthews signed what he was worth. The cap didn’t go up as much then pandemic.

This isn’t new

Edit. It is also important to note that Crosby’s cap hit was Always going to be 8.7 million. The guy probably has to shake it 87 times before he zips up.

The crosby example is disingenuous. Because he got what he was worth. But that was more of a happy accident. His cap hit is due to an obsession with the number 87 than anything else.

Do people really think he was going to not take 8.7 million if the cap didn’t go up?

Ah, so... in other words, when players sign a year early it skews things when looking at cap percentage? Wasn't that my original argument?

 

[Legion34]

Ah, so... in other words, when players sign a year early it skews things when looking at cap percentage? Wasn't that my original argument?

I don’t think you have. Any idea what any of your arguments have been for many years now.

At least you moved away from the unabomber style Caps and !!!¥£!’@&!!@&!
Schtick

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Crosby signed for 17.30% of the cap for 5 years. That was his valuation. It was the highest post-ELC valuation ever. What his contract took up relative to the growing cap throughout the life of the contract is a different matter, and is obviously going to be different for contracts that stretched throughout this unique and unexpected multi-year cap stagnation.

The year Crosby signed that contract his cap percentage was 1.4%. Not 17%;. It can't be both. If Crosby LITERALLY never ever was paid 17% of cap, why would you say he signed for 17% of cap? It makes no sense whatsoever.

Regardless of "bad luck" due to cap increases, we paid a proven 69 point player ONE PERCENT LESS OF CAP than a proven 120 point player. That's based on ACTUAL cap hits. Cap hits that actually affected cap management. Not "fake' 17% cap hits that literally never actually counted against the cap.

I don’t think you have. Any idea what any of your arguments have been for many years now.

At least you moved away from the unabomber style Caps and !!!¥£!’@&!!@&!
Schtick

So in trying to prove that signing a year early DOESN'T skew things... you responded by showing 100% that signing a year early DOES skew things. I've literally never seen anything like this before.

 

[PromisedLand]

Disagree on that but its a fair POV.

I expect McDavid win 3 of the big 4 awards next year. He's looking to challenge 99 and 66

McJesus is on another level man. He is the only player I've seen who just takes over the game by himself in recent memory.

Watching McDavid play is like watching basketball where on player just takes over lol

McDavid is at a different level.

 

[zeke]

GSVA had them at this level this year:

Rielly (27) +2.5 (~16th overall i.e. avg #1D)
Klingberg (29) +1.4 (~45th overall i.e. avg #2D)
Lindholm (27) +0.8 (~85th overall i.e. #3D)

Personally i think GSVA might underrate Lindholm a bit due to likely receiving extreme tough matchups (maybe) on a bad team but still unlikely enough to pull him up into Rielly territory.

Leafs fans just cant seem to understand that we have very good dmen.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The year Crosby signed that contract his cap percentage was 1.4%. Not 17%;

Contracts are based on the cap at time of signing. Crosby signed a 17.30% x 5 year contract. That was his valuation. It was the highest post-ELC valuation ever.

we paid a proven 69 point player ONE PERCENT LESS OF CAP than a proven 120 point player

1. That is a wildly, wildly inaccurate representation of what those two players were.
2. Matthews was paid around 3% of the cap less on the same term - an amount consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts.

 

[zeke]

.

Regardless of "bad luck" due to cap increases, we paid a proven 69 point player ONE PERCENT LESS OF CAP than a proven 120 point player.

Did you ever think that point totals might be a bad way to evaluate players?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Did you ever think that point totals might be a bad way to evaluate players?

It would just never EVER happen in reverse.

Imagine a leaf player scored 120 points and someone like me was using a proven 69 point player as a comparable (only 1 percentage of cap difference). Do you think these guys would accept that? Do you have any idea how much I would be mocked by them if I tried to do such a thing?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Contracts are based on the cap at time of signing. Crosby signed a 17.30% x 5 year contract. That was his valuation. It was the highest post-ELC valuation ever.

And, like I've shown, if a player signs a year early it skews things. Crosby was literally NEVER paid 17% of cap. Ever. It's just a made-up number that only exists on the internet. Everybody, including the gm, Crosby, and his agent knew he would never count 17% against the cap. He never did count as 17% against the cap. It's disingenuous and part of your usual tricks to try and suggest Crosby ever made 17% of cap.

 

[zeke]

It would just never EVER happen in reverse.

Imagine a leaf player scored 120 points and someone like me was using a proven 69 point player as a comparable (only 1 percentage of cap difference). Do you think these guys would accept that? Do you have any idea how much I would be mocked by them if I tried to do such a thing?

I think it happens all the time.

Rielly is a proven 20gl/70pt dman. Nobody suggested paying him like some other 20gl/70pt dmen.

 

[Americanadian]

Contracts are based on the cap at time of signing. Crosby signed a 17.30% x 5 year contract. That was his valuation. It was the highest post-ELC valuation ever.

1. That is a wildly, wildly inaccurate representation of what those two players were.
2. Matthews was paid around 3% of the cap less on the same term - an amount consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts.

That seems like a terrible and subjective way to evaluate contracts. Crosby's cap hit didn't kick in until the 2008-09 season so his cap hit in his first season was 15.3%. Never once in Crosby's career has he made 17.3% of the cap. With Matthews at 14.3% during the first year in his contract the statement you are quoting is correct. Matthews did come in 1% less than Crosby.

Crosby also signed after his 2nd season where he won the Hart, Art Ross, Lester Pearson awards. Matthews was almost exactly a point per game player in his 2nd season (and a half point per game in the playoffs). The contracts are objectively comparable. At that point in their careers the players were objectively not. I would argue that Matthews best season (2021-22) was just as good as any single Crosby season but overpaying players out of their ELC based off projection rather than performance is not a winning formula as the Leafs have proven year after year.

 

[Americanadian]

Did you ever think that point totals might be a bad way to evaluate players?

You are correct, points aren't the whole picture. If you look at Matthews' defensive impact on his ELC the discrepancy between him and Crosby gets even larger. EvolvingHockey's GAR only goes back to 2007-08 which was the final season on Crosby's ELC. Crosby was a positive defensive player in that year.

Matthews ELC years Defensive GAR:

2016-17: -3
2017-18: -2.2
2018-19: -3.2

I know you don't like GAR so feel free to provide any metric which says Matthews was a positive defensive player on his ELC.

 

[Havoc]

The best player in the league is determined over a time frame rather than 1 season. Otherwise Corry Perry would be the best player in the league in 2011.

McDavid had a historical playoff run too. 33 in 16, he put up video game numbers. We both know Matthews isn't putting up 2 pts a game in the western conference even if it's easier than the east.

Speak for yourself. I fully believe Matthews can put up 2 points a game in the playoffs if our opponents were from the Pacific. You really think McDavid is going to drop 14 points on Tampa and vasi? Oilers wouldn't even make it to the 7 games required for him to get 14 they'd be done in 4

 

[justashadowof]

I wonder if someone has written a browser plug in that blocks all references to obscure advanced statistics.

 

[rocketman588]

If you are ceding a concession that is meanless to you, it is usually a smart move.

I'll explain this to you slowly

He has more leverage in the next negotiations due to the nmc because we automatically lose him for nothing if he's not signed with a low ability to get assets if he's trying to squeeze us

So at that point can shake us down at a higher number because we'll be more desperate to sign him did to the higher likelihood that we will get pennies to the dollar on any return for him or nothing if he doesn't waive the nmc

 

[Notsince67]

I'll explain this to you slowly

He has more leverage in the next negotiations due to the nmc because we automatically lose him for nothing if he's not signed with a low ability to get assets if he's trying to squeeze us

So at that point can shake us down at a higher number because we'll be more desperate to sign him did to the higher likelihood that we will get pennies to the dollar on any return for him or nothing if he doesn't waive the nmc

Shake us down? You've really personalized this imagined slight. Do you think Marner and Dubas figured that they would get you good?

 

[hamzarocks]

Speak for yourself. I fully believe Matthews can put up 2 points a game in the playoffs if our opponents were from the Pacific. You really think McDavid is going to drop 14 points on Tampa and vasi? Oilers wouldn't even make it to the 7 games required for him to get 14 they'd be done in 4

He couldn't do it vs the jackets or the Habs

Mcdavids the 3rd greatest offensive player ever. Only guys ahead of him are 99 and 66.

He's got 4 rosses gonna end close to double digits when he's done. A legit GOAT caliber player.

No reason to expect Matthews to dominate the kings like McDavid did

And it wasn't just the Kings he dominated. He destroyed the Flames, and had I think 8 pts in 4 games vs the Avs (a better team than the bolts).

If we're being real, Mcdavid had the best non-99/66 playoffs ever, just didn't end up winning a ring. Had the Oilers gone to the final he'd have 40+ points.

Him and Draisaitl were undescribably dominant

 

[Legion34]

The dishonesty from the dubas fan boys know no bounds.

Legion needs to take the L and go home. Just looks ridiculously foolish.

Ummmm this has been gone over and over and over. There since the cap there have been multiple 5 year contracts. Nash. Kovy. Stamkos. Malkin. Crosby et al.

There were charts and graphs and percentages. This was the standard term for years. The numbers clearly show
That Matthews was well within his comparables.

Since like 1996 or something matthews was top 10 in goals. Goals per game. Points points per game.

Matthews contract of 14% AAV was absolutely fair.
It wasn’t the best. Stamkos was better (tax free) but he was well within comparables.

Literally the dumbest thing People can do is take a person with an actual disorder who is obsessed with the number 87 and pretend that that was a percentage based calculation. The second dumbest thing you can do is actually think that crosby and Matthews signing has any bearing on the cap next year.

Since that time Matthews has won the rocket x 2 (1 behind in a cut short season for a 3rd) Lindsay hart.

His contract was fair at the time and aged well.

facts don’t lie. Look up kovy. Nash. Tavares. Stamkos. Staal Kane all kinds of players

 

[CaptainCrunch17]

I wonder if someone has written a browser plug in that blocks all references to obscure advanced statistics.

It’s the new advanced Dubas logic stats.

Regular season wins and regular season points alone can determine how successful a season is—playoffs be damned.

If your team loses in the first round to a team that ultimately makes it to the Stanley Cup final then you effectively made it to the conference final and lost there.

If you sign a player to a 3 year contract, he plays terrible from day one and you have to give up your first round pick to unload him the same year, that’s a win.

Free sixth round draft picks are worthless compensation, even if they are effectively free.

Feel free to add to the list.

 

[Havoc]

He couldn't do it vs the jackets or the Habs

Mcdavids the 3rd greatest offensive player ever. Only guys ahead of him are 99 and 66.

He's got 4 rosses gonna end close to double digits when he's done. A legit GOAT caliber player.

No reason to expect Matthews to dominate the kings like McDavid did

And it wasn't just the Kings he dominated. He destroyed the Flames, and had I think 8 pts in 4 games vs the Avs (a better team than the bolts).

If we're being real, Mcdavid had the best non-99/66 playoffs ever, just didn't end up winning a ring. Had the Oilers gone to the final he'd have 40+ points.

Him and Draisaitl were undescribably dominant

You can bring up the habs and jackets series with a straight face after mcdavid got smacked around by the Jets only a year ago?

Let me guess Auston Matthews two time rocket winner and Hart winner can't get 9 points in 4 games against the 19/20 Hawks either ?

 

[andora]

You can bring up the habs and jackets series with a straight face after mcdavid got smacked around by the Jets only a year ago?

Let me guess Auston Matthews two time rocket winner and Hart winner can't get 9 points in 4 games against the 19/20 Hawks either ?

It took mcdavid two years losing in a row to wake up and be himself

Matthews we are waiting still.. he played fine this year but did not dominate

 

[Shooter2x]

He couldn't do it vs the jackets or the Habs

Mcdavids the 3rd greatest offensive player ever. Only guys ahead of him are 99 and 66.

He's got 4 rosses gonna end close to double digits when he's done. A legit GOAT caliber player.

No reason to expect Matthews to dominate the kings like McDavid did

And it wasn't just the Kings he dominated. He destroyed the Flames, and had I think 8 pts in 4 games vs the Avs (a better team than the bolts).

If we're being real, Mcdavid had the best non-99/66 playoffs ever, just didn't end up winning a ring. Had the Oilers gone to the final he'd have 40+ points.

Him and Draisaitl were undescribably dominant

Matthews dominated more overall in the jackets series than mcdavids points dominated the hawks. Outside of points Mcdavid was a liability.

Matthews dominated the Habs more than McDavid did the Jets. McDavid massive liability in the defensive end again.


You are coming up with some pretty serious conclusions moving forward based off one season of mcdavid stomping the kings and flames.

This is Auston Matthews you are talking about. Island by yourself if you think he can't achieve 2 points per in a series against a team from the Pacific

 

[Havoc]

It took mcdavid two years losing in a row to wake up and be himself

Matthews we are waiting still.. he played fine this year but did not dominate

It's just odd that because of two McDavid series, suddenly it's a fact Matthews can't put up 2 points a game if he faced a team from the West. Do you honestly think Matthews-Marner can't light up todays version of Quick? A Flames team that abandoned any sign of defence? Out of all statements said this off-season that one is up there as top head scratchers.

Neither of the Kings Flames or Oilers would have beat the Leafs in round 1 this year. I'll take this statement as closer to fact than his.