The Fall of Pierre

[DaveMatthew]

Fair enough, though we did have Greig who would likely be here before that 4 year deal was done. And neither Paul or Formenton looked like truly top 6 wingers, so they were signing him for the 3rd line slot, not the top 6. Whether we had DeBrincat or not, you can bet we were looking to improve the top 6 long term.

I think we kind of knew that we had the inside track on Giroux, so if we had just made that move, we were improving our top 6. I don't know if you can call Debrincat a long term improvement either. He's not signed, so all he is right is a short term improvement.

Let's imagine this alternate reality:

• Sign Paul to $3Mx4
• Keep Brown for the season
• Trade 7th OA to New Jersey for John Marino + Miles Wood + something else
• Make all the other moves we made (Talbot, Motte, Formenton unsigned, etc)

Tkachuk - Stützle - Giroux
Paul - Norris - Batherson
Wood - Pinto - Brown
Motte - Kastelic - Watson
Kelly

Chabot - Zub
Sanderson - Marino
Brannstrom - Hamonic

Are we a better, more balanced team? Maybe.

Debrincat was obviously the sexier and more exciting move. But adding him and Giroux at a combined $16M is salary for this season means we had to make pretty big tradeoffs in other areas.

And I know it's much easier to say with hindsight. But that's how teams, GMs and coaches are ultimately judged. With hindsight.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

Connor Brown makes 4M in actual salary. Motte makes 1.35M. I am thinking they probably just couldn't afford Brown after signing Giroux and DCat.

I am not saying the moves have worked out all that well this season. Letting Paul go for Joseph was a mistake. Talbot hasn't worked out.

But I think there are a lot of posters that refuse to acknowledge the budget constraints put on Dorion.

 

[Micklebot]

This is part of my issue with Dorion. I loved that he aggressively pursued and got Cat, but getting Cat was a luxury given how bad our defense was. Dorion gambling that Hamonic would be good enough for 2RD is another 'vision' complaint.

Sure, but youngish RHD are not on the market too often, and certainly not the variety that carry the value of 7oa.

I mean, people would have flipped out if we sent 7oa out for Marino, even if in hindsight it might have made sense.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Connor Brown makes 4M in actual salary. Motte makes 1.35M. I am thinking they probably just couldn't afford Brown after signing Giroux and DCat.

I am not saying the moves have worked out all that well this season. Letting Paul go for Joseph was a mistake. Talbot hasn't worked out.

But I think there are a lot of posters that refuse to acknowledge the budget constraints put on Dorion.

Right, but those budget constraints were there because his major move was acquiring a LWer who makes $9M in salary this year.

Would we have been better off keeping Brown at his $4M salary and trading the 7th OA pick (or lesser pick) for a D who makes $5M in salary (ie Marino)

Would Marino (4.4M) + Brown (4M) have been better than Debrincat (9M)?

Sure, but youngish RHD are not on the market too often, and certainly not the variety that carry the value of 7oa.

I mean, people would have flipped out if we sent 7oa out for Marino, even if in hindsight it might have made sense.

You can be more creative. Trade the 7th OA to move down and acquire a later 1st + additional picks/prospects. Trade the later 1st for Marino.

Would that have done it? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe Pittsburgh just loved Ty Smith and no other team could top that.

The main thing is that Dorion's big move was to trade a 7th OA pick for a LWer who made $9M in salary. So he dealt our best trade chip and used up a large amount of budget. That can be criticized.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Asset management will always be important, but there's always going to be a tradeoff. To be dismissive of cricisms of asset management can be just as absurd as the the initial complaint about managing the assets in the first place.

There are fair criticisms of how assets have been used during Dorion's tenure, and there are unfair ones. Personally I think the idea we should have held onto Brown is valid in a vacuum, but might not work out as well in real life when all the hidden variables come out.

As for it being unfair to him to play Brown on a third line, boo hoo. Lots of better players than him have played on third lines.

Hoffman and Havlat would eat Brown's lunch in the offensive zone and they were both buried on the 3rd line for much of their time in Ottawa. Vermette could be another mention but he wasn't here long. I'm sure the list would be very long around the league.

 

[Micklebot]

I think we kind of knew that we had the inside track on Giroux, so if we had just made that move, we were improving our top 6. I don't know if you can call Debrincat a long term improvement either. He's not signed, so all he is right is a short term improvement.

Well DeBrincat is under our control for at least another year, and we can flip him if he can't be extended. It didn't have to be DeBrincat either, I'm just saying we'd be looking for better top 6 options.

Let's not pretend that Paul looked like he belonged in a top 6 while here, he was on pace for 25 pts despite playing 17:22! mins a night,

There wasn't really a long term for for him on our third line imo. We had more room on the right side, I don't really think that's debatable.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Well DeBrincat is under our control for at least another year, and we can flip him if he can't be extended. It didn't have to be DeBrincat either, I'm just saying we'd be looking for better top 6 options.

Let's not pretend that Paul looked like he belonged in a top 6 while here, he was on pace for 25 pts despite playing 17:22! mins a night,

There wasn't really a long term for for him on our third line imo. We had more room on the right side, I don't really think that's debatable.

I don't think Paul would have ever produced like a "top 6" guy. But that doesn't mean he can't be in your top 6. Your top two lines don't have to be all offence.

If you have Stützle, Tkachuk, Giroux, Norris and Batherson as your top 5 (all 0.8-1+ PPG players) - you could have Paul as the LWer on the 2nd line no problem, IMO.

The heyday of this franchise saw Magnus Arvedson and Andy Dackell playing in the top 6.

I was as excited as Debrincat as anyone. After years of trading stars, it was awesome to bring one in. But if you look at it objectively, adding him probably wasn't the best use of assets/budget considering the makeup of the rest of the roster.

 

[swiftwin]

Would Marino (4.4M) + Brown (4M) have been better than Debrincat (9M)?

I'm not so sure, to be honest. First of all, Brown is a RW, while DeBrincat is a LW. Hamonic has been good enough in his role. Marino is obviously much better, but I think the difference between DeBrincat and Brown is greater than the difference between Marino and Hamonic.

Then there's also the aspect of next season. Brown was almost definitely going to UFA and getting a big pay raise, where as Hamonic is the opposite, we're either letting him go for nothing, or re-signing him for alot less money and likely bumping him down to the bottom pair.

What's better next season?

Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
Paul-Norris-Batherson
Grieg(?)-Pinto-???
Kelly-Kastelic-?

Chabot-Marino
Sanderson-Zub
Brannstrom-JBD

-or-

Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
DeBrincat-Norris-Batherson
Grieg(?)-Pinto-Joseph
Kelly-Kastelic-?

Chabot-JBD
Sanderson-Zub
Brannstrom-Hamonic

Option A leaves a ton of holes in our lineup, severely lacking depth. It also leaves us with less future potential for subsequent seasons.

I don't think Paul would have ever produced like a "top 6" guy. But that doesn't mean he can't be in your top 6. Your top two lines don't have to be all offence.

Our 2nd line for the first few months last season was:

Stutzle-Paul-Brown

And it was god awful.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I'm not so sure, to be honest. First of all, Brown is a RW, while DeBrincat is a LW. Hamonic has been good enough in his role. Marino is obviously much better, but I think the difference between DeBrincat and Brown is greater than the difference between Marino and Hamonic.

Then there's also the aspect of next season. Brown was almost definitely going to UFA and getting a big pay raise, where as Hamonic is the opposite, we're either letting him go for nothing, or re-signing him for alot less money and likely bumping him down to the bottom pair.

What's better next season?

Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
Paul-Norris-Batherson
Grieg(?)-Pinto-???
Kelly-Kastelic-?

Chabot-Marino
Sanderson-Zub
Brannstrom-JBD

-or-

Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
DeBrincat-Norris-Batherson
Grieg(?)-Pinto-Joseph
Kelly-Kastelic-?

Chabot-JBD
Sanderson-Zub
Brannstrom-Hamonic

Option A leaves a ton of holes in our lineup, severely lacking depth.


Our 2nd line for the first few months last season was:

Stutzle-Paul-Brown

And it was god awful.

On the 2nd line from last year... yeah it was awful. But Stützle was a completely different player at LW. Very limited. Having him at C is a very different conversation.

Personally, I'd prefer:

Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
Paul-Norris-Batherson
Grieg-Pinto-???
Kelly-Kastelic-?

Chabot-Marino
Sanderson-Zub
Brannstrom-JBD

Especially if you could upgrade Brannstrom with a bigger more defensive oriented guy, that'd be a very formidable D core.

 

[Answer]

Well DeBrincat is under our control for at least another year, and we can flip him if he can't be extended. It didn't have to be DeBrincat either, I'm just saying we'd be looking for better top 6 options.

Let's not pretend that Paul looked like he belonged in a top 6 while here, he was on pace for 25 pts despite playing 17:22! mins a night,

There wasn't really a long term for for him on our third line imo. We had more room on the right side, I don't really think that's debatable.

Trading Paul for Joseph is not a mistake. This moves makes sense for us. Joseph is fast and defensively good and can, at very minimum match Paul's production

Formenton would've replaced Brown but we all know what happened there

We also acquired Motte for good measure, and Pinto was coming back this year, as well.

Pinto/Formenton/Joseph/Motte >>> Brown/Paul

The love affair with Paul is just mind boggling

 

[Micklebot]

I don't think Paul would have ever produced like a "top 6" guy. But that doesn't mean he can't be in your top 6. Your top two lines don't have to be all offence.

If you have Stützle, Tkachuk, Giroux, Norris and Batherson as your top 5 (all 0.8-1+ PPG players) - you could have Paul as the LWer on the 2nd line no problem, IMO.

The heyday of this franchise saw Magnus Arvedson and Andy Dackell playing in the top 6.

Paul was in our top 6 in terms of icetime and was not cutting it.

Arvedson was a runner up for the Selke, finished 96th league wide in scoring in 98-99, Dackell was 81st in scoring.

Meanwhile Paul finished 262nd in scoring last year and is 174th this year. I'm not really seeing the comparison here....

 

[swiftwin]

On the 2nd line from last year... yeah it was awful. But Stützle was a completely different player at LW. Very limited. Having him at C is a very different conversation.

Personally, I'd prefer:

Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
Paul-Norris-Batherson
Grieg-Pinto-???
Kelly-Kastelic-?

Chabot-Marino
Sanderson-Zub
Brannstrom-JBD

Especially if you could upgrade Brannstrom with a bigger more defensive oriented guy, that'd be a very formidable D core.

I agree that Stutzle at C is a different story, but I still much much prefer DeBrincat over Paul on the 2nd line. Paul is just not the right fit for this team at this point in the rebuild-contender cycle. Similar story to Pageau. He belongs and will thrive on a cup contender, but he's at the absolute peak of his career right now, and will start declining when the core of this team reaches its peak. Choosing Marino + Paul over DeBrincat is very short-sighted IMO. You're selling DeBrincat way short. We have nobody in the system that is on DeBrincat's level. But we have JBD that can fill Marino's role in the near future.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Paul was in our top 6 in terms of icetime and was not cutting it.

Arvedson was a runner up for the Selke, finished 96th league wide in scoring in 98-99, Dackell was 81st in scoring.

Meanwhile Paul finished 262nd in scoring last year and is 174th this year. I'm not really seeing the comparison here....

Paul was in a top 6 that did not have Giroux or today's versions of Stützle and Tkachuk. Not really fair to compare.

Paul is currently on pace for 47 points and 29 goals. He's playing 16:40 a night in Tampa, 6th amongst their forwards in ice time. In the playoffs last year, he played 18:18 a night (6th in ice time).

A team with a top 6 of:

Tkachuk - Stützle - Giroux
Paul - Norris - Batherson

Could absolutely make a wildcard spot, assuming they had a solid defense. Win the cup? Maybe not. But baby steps here.

I agree that Stutzle at C is a different story, but I still much much prefer DeBrincat over Paul on the 2nd line. Paul is just not the right fit for this team at this point in the rebuild-contender cycle. Similar story to Pageau. He belongs and will thrive on a cup contender, but he's at the absolute peak of his career right now, and will start declining when the core of this team reaches its peak. Choosing Marino + Paul over DeBrincat is very short-sighted IMO. You're selling DeBrincat way short. We have nobody in the system that is on DeBrincat's level. But we have JBD that can fill Marino's role in the near future.

The question is not Debrincat vs Paul. The question is Debrincat vs Paul + $5M/year defenseman.

We also don't have Debrincat signed long-term, so I wouldn't say he's a long-term solution.

JBD should not be in a top 4 role until 24/25, at the earliest. If he's a top 4 on this team next year, we're going to suck again. If he's on the 3rd pairing playing 15-16 minutes a night with a steady partner? We'll have a chance.

 

[swiftwin]

The question is not Debrincat vs Paul. The question is Debrincat vs Paul + $5M/year defenseman.

We also don't have Debrincat signed long-term, so I wouldn't say he's a long-term solution.

JBD should not be in a top 4 role until 24/25, at the earliest. If he's a top 4 on this team next year, we're going to suck again. If he's on the 3rd pairing playing 15-16 minutes a night with a steady partner? We'll have a chance.

I still choose DeBrincat instead of Paul + $5M defenseman. Maybe Paul + $5M D makes us a slightly better team today, it makes us a far worse team in the future, for example 24/25 when we could have our top 4 nailed down with Chabot/Sanderson/Zub/JBD, and have an insane top 6 that is inching closer to their peak. We're not in a position to be going all in right now.

The core of this team is Stutzle, Sanderson and Tkachuk. We need to build the future around them. Paul + an older $5M D does not fit that at all. DeBrincat does.

Also, I'm confident we can sign DeBrincat long term if we need to.

 

[bicboi64]

The core of this team is Stutzle, Sanderson and Tkachuk. We need to build the future around them. Paul + an older $5M D does not fit that at all. DeBrincat does.

Sanderson's back would break from carrying our D, just the watch Chabot seems to have after carrying for the last few years.

Prior to Cat, we had 4 legit top 6 forwards and only two top 4 defenders. I'd like to even it out cuz its easier to develop forwards than defenders, which is why I'd prioritize having a stronger blue line. With all of our fire power, we're not even in the upper half of the conference

 

[Micklebot]

Paul was in a top 6 that did not have Giroux or today's versions of Stützle and Tkachuk. Not really fair to compare.

Paul is currently on pace for 47 points and 29 goals. He's playing 16:40 a night in Tampa, 6th amongst their forwards in ice time.

He can cut it there but not here?

And again, I'm not saying that Paul in our top 6 would make us a cup contender. But we're just trying to make a wildcard spot at this point. The Islanders are tied for a wildcard spot and they're playing Cal Clutterbuck on their "2nd line". Why? They've allocated more resources to their defense.

Tampa as a team can score, so having Paul 170th in scoring isn't a big deal,

Arvedson and Dackel could score for their era, acting like Paul on pace for 50 today is the same as Dackell scoring 50 in our heyday during the deadpuck era just isn't realistic. It was a very different era.

It's also missing the point that what Paul is doing today is very different from realistic expectations for what we could expect from Paul, he was pacing at 25 pts here, got time with Stützle and brown so it's not like he was with complete plugs, it's revisionist to look at him today in Tbay and think we could have reasonably expected similar results had we kept him here.

 

[bicboi64]

My argument for keeping Paul in the top 6 would be to have him help cover for the complete lack of defensive awareness some of our forwards have (Tkachuk and Bath at least). Having a big body that never takes a night off like Paul lets the more offensive minded players do their thing without hurting the team. Cat and Giroux aren't good enough two way to cover for some of our forwards that magically forgot how to play defense lately

 

[swiftwin]

Sanderson's back would break from carrying our D, just the watch Chabot seems to have after carrying for the last few years.

Prior to Cat, we had 4 legit top 6 forwards and only two top 4 defenders. I'd like to even it out cuz its easier to develop forwards than defenders, which is why I'd prioritize having a stronger blue line. With all of our fire power, we're not even in the upper half of the conference

What are you talking about? Chabot will still be around.

All I'm saying is that the 3 players with the highest potential peak are Stutzle, Sanderson and Tkachuk. They are all still very very young. Stutzle is signed until 2031. Sanderson is likely going to also get a similar contract that will take him well into the 2030's. We're not in a rush to be mortgaging the future to help the team today.

 

[bicboi64]

What are you talking about? Chabot will still be around.

All I'm saying is that the 3 players with the highest potential peak are Stutzle, Sanderson and Tkachuk. They are all still very very young. Stutzle is signed until 2032. Sanderson is likely going to also get a similar contract that will take him well into the 2030's. We're not in a rush to be mortgaging the future to help the team today.

Getting defensive help doesn't have to be mortgaging the future though. Chabot has been declining in defensive play and plateauing in offensive production. We have a plethora of winger prospects that can be put into a position to succeed, not many decent defensive prospects which is why I would prefer that Dorion prioritize RD over LW, and why I'm not too big on the DeBrincat acquisition.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Tampa as a team can score, so having Paul 170th in scoring isn't a big deal,

Arvedson and Dackel could score for their era, acting like Paul on pace for 50 today is the same as Dackell scoring 50 in our heyday during the deadpuck era just isn't realistic. It was a very different era.

It's also missing the point that what Paul is doing today is very different from realistic expectations for what we could expect from Paul, he was pacing at 25 pts here, got time with Stützle and brown so it's not like he was with complete plugs, it's revisionist to look at him today in Tbay and think we could have reasonably expected similar results had we kept him here.

I guess the crux of my argument is that Stützle, Tkachuk, Norris, Giroux and Batherson are talented enough to drive scoring in the top 6, and will be for the next several years (Stützle especially has 40G, 100P+ potential), so having a defence-oriented presence like Paul as the 6th guy wouldn't have been a problem. While Debrincat is a big upgrade offensively on Paul, he wasn't a necessary one.

If we had allocated the $6M (difference between Debrincat's and Paul's salaries) to our D core, we would have been better served this season and next.

And that still might happen. With new management, I wouldn't be surprised to see Dbc swapped out for help on D, and a 30-40pt checker brought in to round out the top 6 next year. Any line with Batherson on it could certainly use the help in our own end.

It's especially likely if we end up with a top 10 pick, which means we probably take a forward (considering the calibre of D in this draft class).

*With all that said, maybe management didn't think Tkachuk was going to take that next step offensively and would top out as a 65-70 point guy, and thought Stützle was still a year or two away from really breaking out. If they did, that would make their acquisition of Debrincat more understandable.

 

[swiftwin]

Getting defensive help doesn't have to be mortgaging the future though. Chabot has been declining in defensive play and plateauing in offensive production. We have a plethora of winger prospects that can be put into a position to succeed, not many decent defensive prospects which is why I would prefer that Dorion prioritize RD over LW, and why I'm not too big on the DeBrincat acquisition.

I'm inclined to say the opposite. We have nobody of DeBrincat's caliber in our system. In fact, most teams don't have a player of his caliber in their system. I think you're selling him way short. Were as we do have JBD in our system who has the potential to be a solid #4 RD.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I'm inclined to say the opposite. We have nobody of DeBrincat's caliber in our system. In fact, most teams don't have a player of his caliber in their system. I think you're selling him way short. Were as we do have JBD in our system who has the potential to be a solid #4 RD.

That'll change as soon as this summer. We're on our way to a top 10 pick in a draft stacked with offensive forwards and lacking in D.

 

[swiftwin]

That'll change as soon as this summer. We're on our way to a top 10 pick in a draft stacked with offensive forwards and lacking in D.

Good. That just means we'll have a replacement ready for when Giroux falls off.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Good. That just means we'll have a replacement ready for when Giroux falls off.

We'll see. I bet new management comes in and DBC or Batherson is flipped for budget space and D.

I don't think both are on the team next year.

 

[JD1]

They traded him when his value was probably its lowest. It simply didnt make sense especially with the Formenton situation.

A player of his ilk at the deadline returns way more than a 2nd. Even if he doesnt re -sign if they are in it they keep him. Great. If they are out they trade him for a better return. I dont know how anyone defends the deal. Had Formenton been a lock to return I get it but he wasnt and management knew it.

All Nick Paul wanted was 3 million and the team wouldnt come up. He is a big player that was still improving, terrible cap and player management.

We don't know what the situation was with Paul. Was it just putting more dollars on the table? And more term? Personally I would have rather kept him. But cap mgmt is a balancing act.

We also don't really know the Brown situation. Did he ask to be moved? Did he say he wasn't coming back? Was their budget dollars?

I'm really not much for looking back in time and reassessing what should have been done to move forward. That's simply a great way to live your life with regret and I simply don't operate that way.