Salary Cap: The Endless Speculation Edition

[HandshakeLine]

I mean, it was two CBAs ago. People also had the right to trial-by-combat in certain parts of Europe over 4 centuries ago, but try to ask for that option to challenge a parking ticket and you'll get told to pound sand.

It was a different time, in part because of contracts like Hossa's which were later deemed cap circumvention by the league and struck out of the next CBA.

 

[Peat]

He's not a guy that's really hurting for money, and if he can get a good shot at a Cup making Geno-tier money ($9.5 million-ish) I think he'll absolutely take it over making Panarin or McDavid money for a perennial bottom feeder.

It'd be an interesting question what Hall would do if it came to that, but I can't help but think there's at least one competitive team out there who'd make it moot by offering something in the middle.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

It'd be an interesting question what Hall would do if it came to that, but I can't help but think there's at least one competitive team out there who'd make it moot by offering something in the middle.

Oh, he's not gonna be signing a deal to just scrape by or anything. He's still, imo, going to get something from a contender close to Geno's $9.5 million AAV and for half a dozen years at least. That's still leaving a good chunk on the table though, which was the point I was trying to make. He won't sign for peanuts because it's his job and his responsibility to set himself and his family up for generations (and I'm sure the NHLPA would have a thing or two to say about a guy like Hall signing at a huge discount), but I do think he'll leave a good bit of money on the table to have a shot at a Cup, like others have in the past.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Oh, he's not gonna be signing a deal to just scrape by or anything. He's still, imo, going to get something from a contender close to Geno's $9.5 million AAV and for half a dozen years at least. That's still leaving a good chunk on the table though, which was the point I was trying to make. He won't sign for peanuts because it's his job and his responsibility to set himself and his family up for generations (and I'm sure the NHLPA would have a thing or two to say about a guy like Hall signing at a huge discount), but I do think he'll leave a good bit of money on the table to have a shot at a Cup, like others have in the past.

This actually raises an interesting point, BFD-- namely, what are the mechanisms that a player, if they wanted to give a discount, could actually use these days, given how the last two CBAs have closed a lot of the old loopholes? I'm not trolling or anything, just genuinely curious, but I'm not a lawyer or an accountant.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

This actually raises an interesting point, BFD-- namely, what are the mechanisms that a player, if they wanted to give a discount, could actually use these days, given how the last two CBAs have closed a lot of the old loopholes? I'm not trolling or anything, just genuinely curious, but I'm not a lawyer or an accountant.

f*** if I know, my man. I just know that the NHLPA would raise Hell if Hall tried to sign for something like $5 million a year, because I'm sure it has widespread ramifications with regard to other clients and the overall money players get, yadda yadda yadda.

It's one reason I never took Jagr seriously when he went all word diarrhea with the "sign for league minimum as a thank you to Mario" stuff. I mean, not that I ever take Jagr's word seriously, but you know what I mean. There's no way I could see the NHLPA allowing Jagr, a dude who was a $3 million to $5 million AAV kind of guy at the time, signing for like $500k or whatever the league minimum was at the time.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Speaking of which, anyone remember the case of the star who tried to give a team a discount and the NHLPA stepped in a few years back?

 

[KIRK]

How comes I'm allowed to post here at all then?

You were grandfathered in.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I mean, it was two CBAs ago. People also had the right to trial-by-combat in certain parts of Europe over 4 centuries ago, but try to ask for that option to challenge a parking ticket and you'll get told to pound sand.

It was a different time, in part because of contracts like Hossa's which were later deemed cap circumvention by the league and struck out of the next CBA.

A more recent example is John Tavares. Talk is San Jose offered $13 million per year, but he preferred Toronto's situation and took $11 million per year. That's the kind of cut I was saying Hall might take *IF* he's being honest about how he's tired of losing and values playing for a contender.

 

[KIRK]

A more recent example is John Tavares. Talk is San Jose offered $13 million per year, but he preferred Toronto's situation and took $11 million per year. That's the kind of cut I was saying Hall might take *IF* he's being honest about how he's tired of losing and values playing for a contender.

Yeah, that's technically an example (if the word is true), although I'm not sure Tavares at 11M is what I'd call a 'discount' per se.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Yeah, that's technically an example (if the word is true), although I'm not sure Tavares at 11M is what I'd call a 'discount' per se.

I think it was a guy leaving some money on the table for sure, but I think it was more about playing for his hometown team as opposed to gunning for a Cup.

 

[Factorial]

**** if I know, my man. I just know that the NHLPA would raise Hell if Hall tried to sign for something like $5 million a year, because I'm sure it has widespread ramifications with regard to other clients and the overall money players get, yadda yadda yadda.

It's one reason I never took Jagr seriously when he went all word diarrhea with the "sign for league minimum as a thank you to Mario" stuff. I mean, not that I ever take Jagr's word seriously, but you know what I mean. There's no way I could see the NHLPA allowing Jagr, a dude who was a $3 million to $5 million AAV kind of guy at the time, signing for like $500k or whatever the league minimum was at the time.

There were rumblings from the players association when Mario came back paying himself, from what I remember, $5mm but nothing ever came of it.

 

[KIRK]

I think it was a guy leaving some money on the table for sure, but I think it was more about playing for his hometown team as opposed to gunning for a Cup.

Agreed. I'm just not sure that qualifies as a 'discount' in the context most people think about when discussing the concept of 'taking a discount'. As I said, 11M for Tavares . . . I just can't wrap my head around calling THAT a 'discount'.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Even with a case like Duchene where he takes $8 million AAV with the Preds as opposed to something like $9.5 million AAV with a bottom feeder, over the course of a seven year deal, that's more than $10 million left on the table.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Agreed. I'm just not sure that qualifies as a 'discount' in the context most people think about when discussing the concept of 'taking a discount'. As I said, 11M for Tavares . . . I just can't wrap my head around calling THAT a 'discount'.

Yeah, for sure. These "discounts" aren't guys making peanuts or anything, just dudes not taking the max in order to play for a contender as opposed to getting absolute top dollar from a bottom feeder.

When I say that I think Hall will leave a significant chunk on the table in order to have a better shot at winning a Cup, I think he'll still make Geno-tier money (~$9.5 million), which is a ton. I just think he could get offers around $11 million or so elsewhere, but he'll be in the same situation he's been in where it'll be with a team circling the drain and getting lottery picks annually.

 

[KIRK]

Even with a case like Duchene where he takes $8 million AAV with the Preds as opposed to something like $9.5 million AAV with a bottom feeder, over the course of a seven year deal, that's more than $10 million left on the table.

True, but Tennessee has no state income tax for wages. Playing in Nashville versus a state with an income tax or in Canada is worth about 5M recouped. Then you add in the cost of living factor. When all is said and done, it's MAYBE a 300-400K per year 'discount'.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

True, but Tennessee has no state income tax for wages. Playing in Nashville versus a state with an income tax or in Canada is worth about 5M recouped. Then you add in the cost of living factor. When all is said and done, it's MAYBE a 300-400K per year 'discount'.

That's fair, but I think that's just icing on the cake. Play for a contender that needs you while still making a ton, and in a state with no income tax? Easiest decision of Duchene's life.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Yeah, that's technically an example (if the word is true), although I'm not sure Tavares at 11M is what I'd call a 'discount' per se.

In comparison to what he could have gotten, and in the context of this discussion, I'd say it is. Because the argument against Hall taking $2 million less per year (or $14 million less over the course of 7 years) in order to go to a winning situation doesn't happen. Tavares leaving that exact amount on the table suggests it does, albeit rarely.

 

[Peat]

In comparison to what he could have gotten, and in the context of this discussion, I'd say it is. Because the argument against Hall taking $2 million less per year (or $14 million less over the course of 7 years) in order to go to a winning situation doesn't happen. Tavares leaving that exact amount on the table suggests it does, albeit rarely.

Tavares didn't do to Toronto for a winning situation, he went there to fulfil his childhood dreams. The fact Toronto could win was secondary, because teams like San Jose could win as well. It was that emotional attachment that trumped the money. It's a bit of a nitpick but it's a crucial part of the argument. Very, very few players pick on who's going to win more.

 

[molon labe]

Even with a case like Duchene where he takes $8 million AAV with the Preds as opposed to something like $9.5 million AAV with a bottom feeder, over the course of a seven year deal, that's more than $10 million left on the table.

I live in Florida...and my entire life I've witnessed the state get utterly swamped with northeasterners who are escaping cold weather and utterly ridiculous taxes (from what I've heard second hand). My uncle says he pays less in property tax now (living at the beach), on a condo that costs 3x what his house did in NY - than what he paid in NY 30 years ago for property tax. That's before taking into consideration vehicle inspections, income tax, etc.

At the end of the day, being 2M per year off in a contract might be completely negated being in a 'tax free' state....which is largely due to the overall governmental concepts of those places less the actual tax. When Seattle enters the league - Washington has no state tax but real estate in/around Seattle is not as cheap as Tampa/Sunrise/Nashville/Dallas. Some states get you with idiotic 'luxury taxes' as well where you'll pay a hefty tax on a vehicle due to it's price...so for some of these players that can represent some serious money too. Then there's always the day-to-day costs such as eating out, cleaning services, nanny costs, utility costs, etc.

 

[DeadPuckEra]

The Tavares situation may be a discount on the surface - OK San Jose offered him 2 mil more.

However, he and his wife wanted to be in Toronto. I don’t know that it was so much a “chance to win” as it was him wanting to live and raise a family where he wanted to.

Additionally, and I don’t have a specific number on this, but I can guarantee you the amount of money Tavares is making off endorsements alone in the GTA far supersede the 2 million dollars he left on the table in San Jose.

John Tavares should not be cited as proof that stars will take a discount to win.

Hall would be stupid to not go to FA and see what the offers are. San Jose is a perennial contender who doesn’t have cap space readily available and look what they made work for Erik Karlsson. Hall is 27, and will get the Tavares treatment where he has team executives flying in to rub his feet, offer him 10.5 a year for 7 years, make him team captain etc.

This is the contract (27-28 years old) where star players set themselves up for life, and being able to live out the rest of their lives in a lifestyle they are accustomed to.

 

[molon labe]

The Tavares situation may be a discount on the surface - OK San Jose offered him 2 mil more.

However, he and his wife wanted to be in Toronto. I don’t know that it was so much a “chance to win” as it was him wanting to live and raise a family where he wanted to.

Additionally, and I don’t have a specific number on this, but I can guarantee you the amount of money Tavares is making off endorsements alone in the GTA far supersede the 2 million dollars he left on the table in San Jose.

John Tavares should not be cited as proof that stars will take a discount to win.

Hall would be stupid to not go to FA and see what the offers are. San Jose is a perennial contender who doesn’t have cap space readily available and look what they made work for Erik Karlsson.

So what do you think it is then - money or location?

Hard to believe someone would actively choose to live in Toronto versus San Jose. Having a conversation with your agent about winning - well one could logically deduce that the East has only gotten stronger over the past 5 years whereas the West has been in a steady decline. So perhaps it was money? Toronto may have had multiple endorsement offers ready, idk. Hell - people like what they like I guess.

I agree though. Hall is entering a Summer where he's going to be the big ticket. He would be a little silly to not let himself get courted by every team in the league who think they can land him.

 

[DeadPuckEra]

So what do you think it is then - money or location?

Hard to believe someone would actively choose to live in Toronto versus San Jose. Having a conversation with your agent about winning - well one could logically deduce that the East has only gotten stronger over the past 5 years whereas the West has been in a steady decline. So perhaps it was money? Toronto may have had multiple endorsement offers ready, idk. Hell - people like what they like I guess.

I agree though. Hall is entering a Summer where he's going to be the big ticket. He would be a little silly to not let himself get courted by every team in the league who think they can land him.

Tavares grew up in the GTA. He and his wife wanted to live there, be near family, raise a family etc. I don’t think it was about winning at all. I’m sure Toronto being a contender didn’t hurt, but the dude was posting pictures of himself as a small child - wearing maple leaf pajamas.

Tavares likely knew, the day he put an islanders jersey on - that some day he would sign in Toronto if the opportunity presented itself.

I have to be candid here too, if I’m Taylor Hall and I am willing to take a “discount to win” - is Pittsburgh going to be my first or even second or third choice? If I’m giving up millions for an opportunity to win a cup, am I marrying myself to a team who’s core is quickly headed to the wrong side of 30?

 

[molon labe]

Tavares grew up in the GTA. He and his wife wanted to live there, be near family, raise a family etc. I don’t think it was about winning at all. I’m sure Toronto being a contender didn’t hurt, but the dude was posting pictures of himself as a small child - wearing maple leaf pajamas.

Tavares likely knew, the day he put an islanders jersey on - that some day he would sign in Toronto if the opportunity presented itself.

I have to be candid here too, if I’m Taylor Hall and I am willing to take a “discount to win” - is Pittsburgh going to be my first or even second or third choice? If I’m giving up millions for an opportunity to win a cup, am I marrying myself to a team who’s core is quickly headed to the wrong side of 30?

I tend to think that way too - though of course it's speculation [on Tavares].

Hall- I think he finds a way to go to the Avs. Pittsburgh has the pieces, but I don't see how we squeeze 8M+ into the offense unless we're moving on from MM. With winning, who knows? He could play with Sid or Geno here - and stack some major points for the next several seasons. My gut says he ends up in Colorado or Boston though [if Boston finds a ways to shed 1 year of Backes @ 6M - they're already likely losing Chara to retirement @2M..they might find a way]

 

[Andy99]

Tavares grew up in the GTA. He and his wife wanted to live there, be near family, raise a family etc. I don’t think it was about winning at all. I’m sure Toronto being a contender didn’t hurt, but the dude was posting pictures of himself as a small child - wearing maple leaf pajamas.

Tavares likely knew, the day he put an islanders jersey on - that some day he would sign in Toronto if the opportunity presented itself.

I have to be candid here too, if I’m Taylor Hall and I am willing to take a “discount to win” - is Pittsburgh going to be my first or even second or third choice? If I’m giving up millions for an opportunity to win a cup, am I marrying myself to a team who’s core is quickly headed to the wrong side of 30?

no one has ever wanted to come to Pittsburgh, even in Sid and G’s prime...we’ve lamented and wondered over that for years...just the way it is...not a desirable destination...we’ll either have to overpay like we did with Tanev or trade for help

 

[Shady Machine]

I mean, it was two CBAs ago. People also had the right to trial-by-combat in certain parts of Europe over 4 centuries ago, but try to ask for that option to challenge a parking ticket and you'll get told to pound sand.

It was a different time, in part because of contracts like Hossa's which were later deemed cap circumvention by the league and struck out of the next CBA.

Correct but that was the Hossa in Chicago contract. The reference was his 1 year deal in Detroit. Hossa situations aren't super common, but they also aren't as rare as some are making them out to be.

That said, Hall isn't coming here so probably not worth the debate space.