I would love to hear your explanation on why the wins/loss records were what they were in 2019/20 and this past year….
regarding elvis's regression: he has declined as a goalie since then. when he came to north america he was confident and his game was based on feeling/reacting. now he's overthinking and overplaying his angles. his physical abilities haven't changed, but goaltending is mostly mental and the loss of kivlenieks + the subsequent struggles have destroyed that part of his game.
regarding win/loss records… well, more on that below:
You don’t like wins and losses as a “stat”?? Not enough BS “mathematics” involved??
it's the exact same as pitcher wins in baseball – it's a bad metric for evaluating individual performers at that position because it is equally reliant on offensive outcomes at the other end of the ice.
luckily there
is a way to measure it:
| CBJ Goals for | Goalie TOI | GS/60 | Goalie record | Points percentage |
19-20 w/Korpisalo | 94 | 2125:54 | 2.65 | 19-12-5 | .597 |
19-20 w/Merzlikins | 71 | 1815:08 | 2.35 | 13-9-8 | .567 |
in other words: they had a slightly better record with korpisalo despite elvis having better performance because they simply scored more when korpisalo was in net (which seems to refute your "korpi had harder matchups" theory).
baseball, to its credit, has moved on from caring about pitcher wins as a metric – and for good reason.
And why did Torts choose Korpisalo in the playoffs and why are you ignoring this? What were Korpisalo’s numbers in those playoffs?? Were they different from the regular season? Again, why??
no one can say except for john tortotella, but:
- elvis had dealt with injuries in the weeks leading up to the covid pause, and
- elvis was a rookie, and korpisalo had more experience
you are also ignoring that elvis
also played in the bubble and played
exceptionally well putting up remarkably similar numbers to korpisalo when he was out there:
| Minutes | SV% | GAA | HDSV% | Rebound att
against/60 | Shots
Against/60 |
Bubble Korpi | 599 | .941 | 1.90 | .867 | 4.01 | 32.05 |
Bubble Elvis | 123 | .946 | 1.96 | .933 | 1.47 | 36.17 |
in some rate metrics (rebounds given up, sv% on high-danger chances) elvis was was even better, all while facing more frequent shots.
(also, for someone who complains a lot about shutouts skewing results for elvis's season, you sure don't seem to mind that they did the same to korpisalo's postseason line.)
In other words, ITS BULLSHIT!!
those certainly are words, yes.
“Normalize for team performance/structure”, means WHAT exactly??
it means that it compares their performance to the league average performance against the same volume/placement/type of shots that they faced.
The values given to these shot types and locations that are plugged into these models ARE NOT ACCURATE, in regards to “danger” of the shot/chance and many of the locations themselves aren’t even correct.
[citation needed]
any project that includes data entry will be prone to individual errors. unless you are somehow saying that
all of the data is input incorrectly, though – and have facts to support that – this can only be read as sour grapes.
Korpisalo has just as good of a chance to be looked at as a GREAT signing. The same statistical arguments you are trying to make defending Elvis regarding EVERYTHING, for some reason doesn’t come into play regarding Korpisalo??
because the arguments i'm making for defending the elvis signing were based on it being aligned with the goalie market at the time.
here is the goalie market this summer:
Two-year samples | Goalie A | Goalie B | Goalie C | Goalie D |
SV% | .915 | .901 | .911 | .915 |
GP | 105 | 61 | 52 | 86 |
GSAA | 28.9 | -8.4 | 7.2 | 22.2 |
GSAA/GP | 0.28 | -0.14 | 0.14 | .26 |
Goalie A = Tristan Jarry (5 years, $5.375m aav)
Goalie B = Joonas Korpisalo (5 years, $4m aav)
Goalie C = Adin Hill (2 years, $4.9m aav)
Goalie D = Frederik Andersen (2 years, $3.4m aav)
korpisalo had, by far, the worst performance of that cohort, and ended up getting the second biggest contract of the group, by a huge margin over hill and andersen. it is an egregious contract given the market, which was not the case for merzlikins.