Player Discussion: The Elvis Thread

cbjthrowaway

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Why would you even care about Vezina talk if it's meaningless because of fat journalists and whatnot?


"Since the 1981–82 season, the Vezina Trophy has been awarded to the league’s outstanding goalie, as determined by a poll of all NHL general managers."
ok but those are just general managers! what do they know about hockey?
 

thebus88

19/20 Columbus Blue Jackets: "It Is What It Is"
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Why would you even care about Vezina talk if it's meaningless because of fat journalists and whatnot?

1st, is that people around here say that Vezina’s never get talked about regarding Elvis. I’m told to “show the posts” regularly.

Sorry, I don’t mean to personally attack journalists, but, overall they LACK actual hockey/sport’s knowledge, even after watching hundreds of games.

The REAL ISSUE, is that ELVIS is still talking about the Vezina stuff, as if it’s reality or his actual goal. He needs to work on FUNDAMENTALS. He is SO FAR AWAY from being a Vezina goalie, that if HE doesn’t see that, THAT is clearly PART of the issue.

Some fans and him still act as if he is 21 and has all this room for growth. Than again, Elvis himself says he’s now done listening to those who says he needs to change anything, and that’s supposed to be looked at as “promising” or him looked at favorably in any way after his performance and “statistics” the last couple year??


"Since the 1981–82 season, the Vezina Trophy has been awarded to the league’s outstanding goalie, as determined by a poll of all NHL general managers."
I’ll take the “L” here. It would be nice to see how many votes/points he actually got, ALONG with a list of notable “bad” goalies that have gotten votes themselves in the past. He got the shutouts -WOOHOO-, yet the impact that “luck” and his teammates actually had during a literally unprecedented and unsustainable run, is just dismissed for no good reason other than optimism.

He was LITERALLY lucky to get the amount of shutouts he got in the amount of games he played, which made his numbers seem MUCH better than his overall play (and skill/ability) actually was.

Goalie statistics ARE IMPACTED GREATLY BY THE TEAM. Vezina votes ARE IMPACTED GREATLY BY THE STATISTICS.

The general managers make idiotic decisions all the time. Signing Merzlikins based on -what I’m assuming WAS those Vezina votes- is a PERFECT example. I’m more blown away that the CBJ would give him the contract they did after watching him regularly, than some other GM’s who watched him play less than 10 times giving some Vezina votes.
 
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Double-Shift Lasse

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I agree with you that I'd prefer Elvis not be talking about the Vezina. I mentioned in an earlier post that his openness is a double-edged sword - I love some of the heart-on-sleeve things we get from him but I think there are some things I'd prefer just remain unsaid.

To put a cap on my participation in this specific discussion, I've said before and say again here, I imagine that this is his last opportunity to prove he can be an at least competent NHL goalie.
 
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Double-Shift Lasse

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clap.gif
 

thebus88

19/20 Columbus Blue Jackets: "It Is What It Is"
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I agree with you that I'd prefer Elvis to not be talking about the Vezina. I mentioned in an earlier post that his openness is a double-edged sword - I love some of the things we get from him but I think there are some things I'd prefer just remain unsaid.

To put a cap on my participation in this specific discussion, I've said before and say again here, I imagine that this is his last opportunity to prove he can be an at least competent NHL goalie.

Just to add, I’ve tried to be pretty quiet on my comments regarding the dude recently, but, those goals in that 1st preseason game isn’t just 1st game jitters. It’s day 1 NHL Merzlikins, IMO.

Then, that interview. MY GOD. I’m sorry, there is a difference between confidence and arrogance. Also to be clear, the issue IS NOT the “language barrier” either. What he is saying and HOW he says it is ALL bad. Again, please anyone, go back and watch some of the highlights from the games of “old Elvis” and tell me if you really see a good goalie.

There is a mindset and level of COMPOSURE you need your goaltender to have, at ANY level, let alone the NHL. He DOES NOT have it. He got bumped a bit in that 1st game and already started freaking out, while play is still going on and there was NO potential for a goalie interference call. He simply does not have the technical skill set to make up for any of his mental issues that are vast.

As somebody who was also bashed as a “Bobrovsky hater”, it should be noted that HE DID have consistency issues. He was also simply a MUCH BETTER goalie than Merzlikins, and his level of “confidence” that he displayed was more than acceptable in relation to his performance and everything he brought to the team on the ice. That said, when he was literally vocal about “wanting out”/ not coming back, he should have been moved.

The questions regarding Bobrovsky was if his cap money, nearly double of Elvis, could be used to improve the team elsewhere, and subsequently if Korpisalo (or another acquisition I guess) could adequately fill in as the #1. Korpisalo+$7 million cap dollars vs Bob

And it wasn’t so much, “playoff Bob”, so much that it was HE DID have issues against the best teams (offenses) in the league. Just so happened that we had a TEAM that was good enough to end up always having to plays these teams when it came down to it. The question was if we could get there WITHOUT him, could we add somebody with that extra money to get past the Penguins/Capitals of the world.

Elvis won’t even get this team back to a level of MEDIOCRITY that the fans around here already classified as unacceptable.
 

cbjthrowaway

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Goalie statistics ARE IMPACTED GREATLY BY THE TEAM. Vezina votes ARE IMPACTED GREATLY BY THE STATISTICS.
this is true to an extent, but the narrative that 2019-20 elvis was somehow a product of the team in front of him doesn't have any juice. his individual GSAA that year was 12.1, as a TEAM, the blue jackets GSAA was… 11.6. meaning that their goaltending was below average when he wasn't in the net, and significantly above when he was in the net.

he was a good goalie that season, albeit one who had moments where he took too many risks… but there are a ton of objectively very good goalies throughout the league (and in the history of the league) who are both good AND aggressive. good and aggressive are not mutually exclusive traits in a goalie.
Signing Merzlikins based on -what I’m assuming WAS those Vezina votes- is a PERFECT example.
the contract wasn't based on vezina votes, it was based on his market.

i had a longer comment about this in another thread, but here is what the goalie market looked like at the time (all signed $5-6m aav contracts in 2021)

Two-year samplesGoalie AGoalie BGoalie CGoalie DGoalie E
SV%.911.916.920.919.913
GP9254517643
GSAA5.811.119.020.86.3
GSAA/GP0.060.210.370.270.14

A: Jordan Binnington ($6m x 6 years)
B: Linus Ullmark ($5m x 4 years)
C: Elvis Merzlikins ($5.4m x 5 years)
D: Philipp Grubauer ($5.9m x 6 years)
E: Cal Peterson ($5m x 3 years)

elvis had the best stats in that cohort and the contract he signed with the jackets was the median for that dataset (two bigger ones, two smaller ones). he signed a market-value contract. the issue here was never that columbus 'picked the wrong goalie' (korpi was REALLY bad for a long stretch until turning it around last year) – it's that they gave term to any goalie.

four of the five contracts in that cohort aged poorly. there are plenty of examples outside of that cohort that are famously bad (dipietro, bobrovsky, price) – you can live with a high-AAV goalie, but they're so volatile that term is more likely to make a contract age poorly rather than age well.
 

thebus88

19/20 Columbus Blue Jackets: "It Is What It Is"
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this is true to an extent, but the narrative that 2019-20 elvis was somehow a product of the team in front of him doesn't have any juice. his individual GSAA that year was 12.1, as a TEAM, the blue jackets GSAA was… 11.6. meaning that their goaltending was below average when he wasn't in the net, and significantly above when he was in the net.

“GSAA” means NOTHING to me. 12.1/11.6 is also meaningless and 1 of the “stats” where my sarcastic “decimals” jokes/comments originate from. I’d LOVE to go back and watch the game film of those shutouts games and other games from back then. I wish the CBJ had a Canadian sized fanbase where more people would have been willing and able to scrutinize the play of Elvis over the years, through YT/compilation videos or other means.

The team AND COACH was more responsible for his above average/shutout numbers than he was that year. I stand by it now as I did then. You think it’s a coincidence all those shutouts happened in like 2 weeks?? Or did Torts had them change the way they played for a period of time??

he was a good goalie that season, albeit one who had moments where he took too many risks…


. the issue here was never that columbus 'picked the wrong goalie' (korpi was REALLY bad for a long stretch until turning it around last year) – it's that they gave term to any goalie.

ALSO, some of you guys seemingly conveniently “forget”, while you continue to claim Korpisalo has been so bad for so long before this year… HE OUTPLAYED ELVIS IN 2019/20, and Torts RIGHTFULLY choose him as the starter in the playoffs and he played the vast majority, where Korpisalo AGAIN played quite well.

We had the debate back then who the better goalie was that year, and it was much more split before the majority bought into the BS and Elvis’ “personality”. Korpisalo played more games, had a better record and quite clearly had the harder matchups/schedule. The shutouts are what made Elvis look “statistically” better, but, his play was NOT. Again, .25 and .12 mean nothing.

Your ideas of players ability or skill changing so vastly year to year, is NOT accurate. Due to many different things, from known or unknown injuries, off ice personal matters, lineup and playing time decisions, and just plain “luck”, a players performance and results can vary, during a season or over a matter of years.

What DOES NOT CHANGE, is their actual skill or ability. Another thing Merzlikins has always been given the benefit of the doubt -for no apparent reason- is his miraculous ability to somehow change how good of an actual player he is this late in his career. He’s always been treated as a “young” goalie yet him and Korpisalo are the same age. Since he’s come over he’s always been treated as if he’s much younger than he actually is.

There is physical growth/strength an actual young player, or player who didn’t give 100% to fitness prior, can gain that can help them, and certain “traits” you can teach OUT of a young player, but, you CANNOT change the “style” of player or the “skill” and make them “better” at anything, especially at 25+ years old, and even more especially if that person seemingly doesn’t think they’re the 1 that has to change anything.

Elvis’ solution to the unidentified problem is quite literally, “I’m gonna be me”. Well, that’s a shitty goalie.
 
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cbjthrowaway

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The team AND COACH was more responsible for his above average/shutout numbers than he was that year. I stand by it now as I did then. You think it’s a coincidence all those shutouts happened in like 2 weeks?? Or did Torts had them change the way they played for a period of time??
there is empirical evidence that the blue jackets were a below-average team in net that season (by all goalie metrics that normalize for team performance) except when elvis was in net, as they were far above average in those games.

you are arguing that the blue jackets were somehow a different team in front of elvis that season than they were in front of korpisalo or kivlenieks. but you have nothing to back that up beyond ~vibes~ because you don't think any stat means anything.

this past season, korpisalo clearly outperformed elvis. did the team play a different game in front of him? or was it largely the same team in front of both goalies?

ALSO, some of you guys seemingly conveniently “forget”, while you continue to claim Korpisalo has been so bad for so long before this year… HE OUTPLAYED ELVIS IN 2019/20
he literally did not.

SV%GAAadjGAAGA%- (lower = better)GSAA
Korpisalo.9112.602.77991.1
Elvis.9232.352.488512.1

i know you just said you don't care about GSAA, but GSAA normalizes for team performance/structure. it takes into account what types of shots they're facing, and where those shots are coming from.

according to GSAA, elvis was 10x better than korpisalo that season. korpisalo's stats still looked good, but according to GSAA he faced significantly easier shots (i.e. the team played better for korpisalo than they did for elvis).

GA%- is a measure of goalie save percentage compared to the league average (think of OPS+ in baseball). according to that measure, korpisalo (99) was basically dead-on league average, while elvis was 15% better than the league average (in sv% terms that is massive).

in other words: there is empirical evidence to disprove your theory that elvis was somehow a factor of strong team performance that season.

i know this is a message board and you're just staying true to that energy (and, tbh, props dude) but it's wild to say "player X is CLEARLY better than player Y" despite every single statistic saying otherwise, then acting like it's the statistics' fault.

Your ideas of players ability or skill changing so vastly year to year, is NOT accurate. Due to many different things, from known or unknown injuries, off ice personal matters, lineup and playing time decisions, and just plain “luck”, a players performance and results can vary, during a season or over a matter of years.
i am not saying that goalie skill levels or abilities change year-to-year.

i am saying that goaltender performance is extremely volatile year-to-year.

those are different things, and is part of why good goalies have bad years, and vice versa. longer contracts are going to be subject to more volatility (or outright decline) with goalies than they are with other positions. it's why korpisalo's contract, for example, will likely end up being seen as a huge mistake by ottawa in the coming years.
 

thebus88

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there is empirical evidence that the blue jackets were a below-average team in net that season (by all goalie metrics that normalize for team performance) except when elvis was in net, as they were far above average in those games.

you are arguing that the blue jackets were somehow a different team in front of elvis that season than they were in front of korpisalo or kivlenieks. but you have nothing to back that up beyond ~vibes~ because you don't think any stat means anything.

this past season, korpisalo clearly outperformed elvis. did the team play a different game in front of him? or was it largely the same team in front of both goalies?
Empirical Evidence vs Vibes

HA!

I would love to hear your explanation on why the wins/loss records were what they were in 2019/20 and this past year….

You don’t like wins and losses as a “stat”?? Not enough BS “mathematics” involved??

And why did Torts choose Korpisalo in the playoffs and why are you ignoring this? What were Korpisalo’s numbers in those playoffs?? Were they different from the regular season? Again, why??


he literally did not.

SV%GAAadjGAAGA%- (lower = better)GSAA
Korpisalo.9112.602.77991.1
Elvis.9232.352.488512.1

i know you just said you don't care about GSAA, but GSAA normalizes for team performance/structure. it takes into account what types of shots they're facing, and where those shots are coming from.

In other words, ITS BULLSHIT!!

“Normalize for team performance/structure”, means WHAT exactly?? The values given to these shot types and locations that are plugged into these models ARE NOT ACCURATE, in regards to “danger” of the shot/chance and many of the locations themselves aren’t even correct.

according to GSAA, elvis was 10x better than korpisalo that season. korpisalo's stats still looked good, but according to GSAA he faced significantly easier shots (i.e. the team played better for korpisalo than they did for elvis).
Yeah, again, bullshit.

GA%- is a measure of goalie save percentage compared to the league average (think of OPS+ in baseball). according to that measure, korpisalo (99) was basically dead-on league average, while elvis was 15% better than the league average (in sv% terms that is massive).

in other words: there is empirical evidence to disprove your theory that elvis was somehow a factor of strong team performance that season.

i know this is a message board and you're just staying true to that energy (and, tbh, props dude) but it's wild to say "player X is CLEARLY better than player Y" despite every single statistic saying otherwise, then acting like it's the statistics' fault.

Again, these “statistics” are BS. I am at the very least in the process of being proven correct about what I’ve said regarding the goalies from “day 1”, to continue to dismiss my opinion on the matter at this point is quite fascinating, IMO.
i am not saying that goalie skill levels or abilities change year-to-year.

i am saying that goaltender performance is extremely volatile year-to-year.

those are different things, and is part of why good goalies have bad years, and vice versa. longer contracts are going to be subject to more volatility (or outright decline) with goalies than they are with other positions. it's why korpisalo's contract, for example, will likely end up being seen as a huge mistake by ottawa in the coming years.
Both goalies are still much closer to what they were in 2019-20 than most give them credit for. They are the same goalies. 1 is good, 1 is not. Perception has changed DRAMATICALLY regarding them, nothing else.

Korpisalo has just as good of a chance to be looked at as a GREAT signing. The same statistical arguments you are trying to make defending Elvis regarding EVERYTHING, for some reason doesn’t come into play regarding Korpisalo??
 
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cbjthrowaway

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I would love to hear your explanation on why the wins/loss records were what they were in 2019/20 and this past year….

regarding elvis's regression: he has declined as a goalie since then. when he came to north america he was confident and his game was based on feeling/reacting. now he's overthinking and overplaying his angles. his physical abilities haven't changed, but goaltending is mostly mental and the loss of kivlenieks + the subsequent struggles have destroyed that part of his game.

regarding win/loss records… well, more on that below:

You don’t like wins and losses as a “stat”?? Not enough BS “mathematics” involved??
it's the exact same as pitcher wins in baseball – it's a bad metric for evaluating individual performers at that position because it is equally reliant on offensive outcomes at the other end of the ice.

luckily there is a way to measure it:

CBJ Goals forGoalie TOIGS/60Goalie recordPoints percentage
19-20 w/Korpisalo942125:542.6519-12-5.597
19-20 w/Merzlikins711815:082.3513-9-8.567

in other words: they had a slightly better record with korpisalo despite elvis having better performance because they simply scored more when korpisalo was in net (which seems to refute your "korpi had harder matchups" theory).

baseball, to its credit, has moved on from caring about pitcher wins as a metric – and for good reason.

And why did Torts choose Korpisalo in the playoffs and why are you ignoring this? What were Korpisalo’s numbers in those playoffs?? Were they different from the regular season? Again, why??
no one can say except for john tortotella, but:
  1. elvis had dealt with injuries in the weeks leading up to the covid pause, and
  2. elvis was a rookie, and korpisalo had more experience
you are also ignoring that elvis also played in the bubble and played exceptionally well putting up remarkably similar numbers to korpisalo when he was out there:

MinutesSV%GAAHDSV%Rebound att
against/60
Shots
Against/60
Bubble Korpi599.9411.90.8674.0132.05
Bubble Elvis123.9461.96.9331.4736.17

in some rate metrics (rebounds given up, sv% on high-danger chances) elvis was was even better, all while facing more frequent shots.

(also, for someone who complains a lot about shutouts skewing results for elvis's season, you sure don't seem to mind that they did the same to korpisalo's postseason line.)

In other words, ITS BULLSHIT!!
those certainly are words, yes.
“Normalize for team performance/structure”, means WHAT exactly??
it means that it compares their performance to the league average performance against the same volume/placement/type of shots that they faced.
The values given to these shot types and locations that are plugged into these models ARE NOT ACCURATE, in regards to “danger” of the shot/chance and many of the locations themselves aren’t even correct.
[citation needed]

any project that includes data entry will be prone to individual errors. unless you are somehow saying that all of the data is input incorrectly, though – and have facts to support that – this can only be read as sour grapes.
Korpisalo has just as good of a chance to be looked at as a GREAT signing. The same statistical arguments you are trying to make defending Elvis regarding EVERYTHING, for some reason doesn’t come into play regarding Korpisalo??
because the arguments i'm making for defending the elvis signing were based on it being aligned with the goalie market at the time.

here is the goalie market this summer:

Two-year samplesGoalie AGoalie BGoalie CGoalie D
SV%.915.901.911.915
GP105615286
GSAA28.9-8.47.222.2
GSAA/GP0.28-0.140.14.26

Goalie A = Tristan Jarry (5 years, $5.375m aav)
Goalie B = Joonas Korpisalo (5 years, $4m aav)
Goalie C = Adin Hill (2 years, $4.9m aav)
Goalie D = Frederik Andersen (2 years, $3.4m aav)

korpisalo had, by far, the worst performance of that cohort, and ended up getting the second biggest contract of the group, by a huge margin over hill and andersen. it is an egregious contract given the market, which was not the case for merzlikins.
 
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I3LI3

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this was posted on reddit but…. yikes.


It’s the exact same thing every time.

December 2022


February 2023


April 2023


June 2023


And then this one —

Edit: that is just within the last year “

elvis continues to sing the same story and posts worse results. hopefully this is the year where it all clicks..
 

Jovavic

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Still can't believe that Korpi contract, most goalies for a five year term is crazy, especially one with a lengthy injury history and such poor play, but good for him for finding a sucker to offer him that. Forsberg always was the better goalie, he gets to prove it again.

It's hard to take some posters seriously when they caps lock every fifth word on average, makes it really easy to skip over when they're in one of their moods.
 
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NotWendell

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Can I see the stat for wins? I can't remember the last time one of our goalies stole a game for us.

The answer between Elvis and Korpi is C. None of the above.
 
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majormajor

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Elvis is teaching a masterclass in how to think if you want to be fragile. Unrealistic goals and a battle with your haters. There are going to be rough times, bad goals let in, how do you keep your calm? It appears there will be no calm.

This club is heading towards another lost season.
 

Byrral

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^^^^^^^^^^

Unfortunately true.

It's merely the third week of training camp and scapegoats are already being lined up to play the blame game with and the season is surely headed for disaster because of what Elvis said to a reporter(s).

This board has become a toxic mess where every thread seems to have less constructive debate about the topic at hand and replaced with personal grievances and over the top opinions.

I'm not a fan of Elvis or of Jarmos decision to not re-tool the goaltending position but I'm not going to crucify Elvis before a real game has been played or because someone elses translation of what Elvis said to a reporter(s) is different than what I believe he really meant.

My hope is that he turns a corner and stops some pucks this season. If not he may go down as the final straw that doomed this current management team and to that I wouldn't be disappointed at all.
 

WADEugottaBELAKthat

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“GSAA” means NOTHING to me. 12.1/11.6 is also meaningless and 1 of the “stats” where my sarcastic “decimals” jokes/comments originate from. I’d LOVE to go back and watch the game film of those shutouts games and other games from back then. I wish the CBJ had a Canadian sized fanbase where more people would have been willing and able to scrutinize the play of Elvis over the years, through YT/compilation videos or other means.

The team AND COACH was more responsible for his above average/shutout numbers than he was that year. I stand by it now as I did then. You think it’s a coincidence all those shutouts happened in like 2 weeks?? Or did Torts had them change the way they played for a period of time??



ALSO, some of you guys seemingly conveniently “forget”, while you continue to claim Korpisalo has been so bad for so long before this year… HE OUTPLAYED ELVIS IN 2019/20, and Torts RIGHTFULLY choose him as the starter in the playoffs and he played the vast majority, where Korpisalo AGAIN played quite well.

We had the debate back then who the better goalie was that year, and it was much more split before the majority bought into the BS and Elvis’ “personality”. Korpisalo played more games, had a better record and quite clearly had the harder matchups/schedule. The shutouts are what made Elvis look “statistically” better, but, his play was NOT. Again, .25 and .12 mean nothing.

Your ideas of players ability or skill changing so vastly year to year, is NOT accurate. Due to many different things, from known or unknown injuries, off ice personal matters, lineup and playing time decisions, and just plain “luck”, a players performance and results can vary, during a season or over a matter of years.

What DOES NOT CHANGE, is their actual skill or ability. Another thing Merzlikins has always been given the benefit of the doubt -for no apparent reason- is his miraculous ability to somehow change how good of an actual player he is this late in his career. He’s always been treated as a “young” goalie yet him and Korpisalo are the same age. Since he’s come over he’s always been treated as if he’s much younger than he actually is.

There is physical growth/strength an actual young player, or player who didn’t give 100% to fitness prior, can gain that can help them, and certain “traits” you can teach OUT of a young player, but, you CANNOT change the “style” of player or the “skill” and make them “better” at anything, especially at 25+ years old, and even more especially if that person seemingly doesn’t think they’re the 1 that has to change anything.

Elvis’ solution to the unidentified problem is quite literally, “I’m gonna be me”. Well, that’s a shitty goalie.
Dude you are on fire. Preach on from the pulpit brother. I mean I would LOVE for you to be wrong but you are so obviously right that I am going to just assume your last few posts as the biblical Truth wrt Elvis.
 
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