Player Discussion: The Elvis Thread

[NotWendell]

Or maybe he knows a thing or 2 more about the team than we do.

Let's run with that possibility a bit.

There's a distinct possibility that Legace became too much like the manager that wants everyone to like them. So much that they can't hold their direct reports accountable or say what needs to be said because his relationship is familial instead of supervisory. The galvanization that must have occurred after the Kivi accident could have played a role in this (possible) blurring of the lines. We'll likely never know.

So replacing the goalie coach, and getting Tarasov back healthy (if he can stay that way), MAY be an example of a possibility like that you described. So maybe? We'll find out soon enough.

 

[emptyNedder]

The galvanization that must have occurred after the Kivi accident could have played a role in this (possible) blurring of the lines. We'll likely never know.

I was really curious to see what CBJ fans think about Elvis. Yours is the only recent comment to mention the tragedy. it seems pretty obvious to an outsider that Merzlikins was at least showing potential to be a 1A in his first two seasons and his play the past two seasons has a lot to do with the mental struggle from what happened.

Again as an outsider, it wouldn't be surprising that after two years Elvis has overcome/dealt with most of the trauma. Or his on-ice struggles could continue. My guess is his numbers this year end up similar to 20/21.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I was really curious to see what CBJ fans think about Elvis. Yours is the only recent comment to mention the tragedy. it seems pretty obvious to an outsider that Merzlikins was at least showing potential to be a 1A in his first two seasons and his play the past two seasons has a lot to do with the mental struggle from what happened.

Again as an outsider, it wouldn't be surprising that after two years Elvis has overcome/dealt with most of the trauma. Or his on-ice struggles could continue. My guess is his numbers this year end up similar to 20/21.

I'm not making predictions. He will be what he will be this year. He wasn't good but the defense in front of him was tragic as well. Steps were made to improve the defense on paper. We'll see it is actually is better. Whatever happens will happen. I think last year was more of the sh*t team than personal trauma but I do think a new goalie coach is very important. The team made steps to try to allow him to be successful. It's up to him at this point.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I'm not making predictions. He will be what he will be this year. He wasn't good but the defense in front of him was tragic as well. Steps were made to improve the defense on paper. We'll see it is actually is better. Whatever happens will happen. I think last year was more of the sh*t team than personal trauma but I do think a new goalie coach is very important. The team made steps to try to allow him to be successful. It's up to him at this point.

An excellent summary.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

I'm not making predictions. He will be what he will be this year. He wasn't good but the defense in front of him was tragic as well. Steps were made to improve the defense on paper. We'll see it is actually is better. Whatever happens will happen. I think last year was more of the sh*t team than personal trauma but I do think a new goalie coach is very important. The team made steps to try to allow him to be successful. It's up to him at this point.

Well put. This coming season will be his last shot to prove himself as a starter though.

 

[CBJx614]

Well put. This coming season will be his last shot to prove himself as a starter though.

Maybe in Columbus, but someone, somewhere will see him as a reclamation project for the right price(especially if he's bought out)

 

[Indy18]

Maybe in Columbus, but someone, somewhere will see him as a reclamation project for the right price(especially if he's bought out)

He probably wouldn't be bought out as that's a nasty buyout term:

Elvis Merzlikins Buyout Results - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Elvis Merzlikins buyout results and details including cost calculations, savings and final cap hit

www.capfriendly.com

Depending on how bad he is its better to bury it, exchange "reclamation" contracts with another team or, most likely result, use picks to rid you of him at that point. I am a bit shocked there wasn't more out of Anaheim with Gibson because I am sure he is annoyed there. Both players are in need of a new scenery and I am sure the Ducks would rather have a Peeke than a Lyubushkin as I am sure Peeke would had been part of that package between us and Anaheim.

 

[CBJx614]

He probably wouldn't be bought out as that's a nasty buyout term:

Elvis Merzlikins Buyout Results - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Elvis Merzlikins buyout results and details including cost calculations, savings and final cap hit

www.capfriendly.com

Depending on how bad he is its better to bury it, exchange "reclamation" contracts with another team or, most likely result, use picks to rid you of him at that point. I am a bit shocked there wasn't more out of Anaheim with Gibson because I am sure he is annoyed there. Both players are in need of a new scenery and I am sure the Ducks would rather have a Peeke than a Lyubushkin as I am sure Peeke would had been part of that package between us and Anaheim.

It would be next season that it happens. They are counting on him rebounding with an actual system and healthy defense in front of him.


Not necessarily at you but I know someone will bring up how Korpi played well in front of the same defense yada yada yada, but they were in two completely different situations. One had a guaranteed and a bad state of mind while Korpi was playing for a new contract and possibly one of his last NHL contracts.

 

[Monstershockey]

It would be next season that it happens. They are counting on him rebounding with an actual system and healthy defense in front of him.


Not necessarily at you but I know someone will bring up how Korpi played well in front of the same defense yada yada yada, but they were in two completely different situations. One had a guaranteed and a bad state of mind while Korpi was playing for a new contract and possibly one of his last NHL contracts.

So now Korpi played better because he was playing for a contract. Had nothing to do with playing pain free from a fixed bad hip for the first time in who knows how long.

 

[CBJx614]

So now Korpi played better because he was playing for a contract. Had nothing to do with playing pain free from a fixed bad hip for the first time in who knows how long.

There's always multiple factors when looking at numbers, it's never just one thing. Players performing well in contract years happens every single season. There's a ton of players who have had career seasons in a contract year.

Athletes' performance declines following contract years

A professor has determined that the contract year performance boost is real, but they caution team managers and coaches that it might be followed by a post-contract performance crash -- a two-year pattern they call the "contract year syndrome."

www.sciencedaily.com

"We tested whether or not there was a bump in an athlete's performance during the contract year and found that to be true for some scoring statistics," Sheldon said. "We also found a lingering negative impact. In this case, there was a general drop-off in performance after contracts were signed. This holds true for both NBA and MLB players and follows the patterns found in past laboratory research. Armed with this information, owners and general managers could perhaps tie large raises to contingencies that require the athlete to maintain the same productivity in the future instead of slacking off. Or at least, fans could be prepared to expect a let-down in the performance of their team's star who just re-signed."

Researchers compiled information on NBA players who played at least 500 minutes and MLB players who played at least 300 innings in each season examined. To be included in the study, players must not have had back-to-back contract years; if players had two contract years within the period studied, only the first contract year was included. More than 230 NBA and MLB players were studied over a 10-year period.

 

[Monstershockey]

There's always multiple factors when looking at numbers, it's never just one thing. Players performing well in contract years happens every single season. There's a ton of players who have had career seasons in a contract year.

Athletes' performance declines following contract years

A professor has determined that the contract year performance boost is real, but they caution team managers and coaches that it might be followed by a post-contract performance crash -- a two-year pattern they call the "contract year syndrome."

www.sciencedaily.com

I know players have good years and some have bad years in contract years. If you base signing a guy because he had a good contract year, you are probably asking for trouble, especially if it was a much better year than normal. As far as Korpi playing well because it was a contract year, I find that doubtful. He had other reasons to play well, like finding his form after a major surgery. Last year could have easily ended up like Tarasovs.

 

[Jovavic]

Getting a big contract after having a much better than normal year? Bahgawd, that's Todd Marchant's music!

 

[CBJx614]

I know players have good years and some have bad years in contract years. If you base signing a guy because he had a good contract year, you are probably asking for trouble, especially if it was a much better year than normal. As far as Korpi playing well because it was a contract year, I find that doubtful. He had other reasons to play well, like finding his form after a major surgery. Last year could have easily ended up like Tarasovs.

I agree that being healthy has an impact in the same way that Elvis' mental health could and likely has negatively affected his last couple seasons. I don't think Korpi (or any player) went through the season with the mindset that they need to play well to get paid more. But in leagues where guaranteed pay is a thing, it definitely happens.

You can doubt it all you want, but that study literally proves that players will over perform in contract years and will likely under perform in the year or two after the contract.

I do like his idea to put incentives or qualifiers in the year or two following the deal to keep players motivated and performing at that high level

 

[Monstershockey]

I agree that being healthy has an impact in the same way that Elvis' mental health could and likely has negatively affected his last couple seasons. I don't think Korpi (or any player) went through the season with the mindset that they need to play well to get paid more. But in leagues where guaranteed pay is a thing, it definitely happens.

You can doubt it all you want, but that study literally proves that players will over perform in contract years and will likely under perform in the year or two after the contract.

I do like his idea to put incentives or qualifiers in the year or two following the deal to keep players motivated and performing at that high level

I wasn't doubting the study, I was doubting Korpi playing for a contract. He had too much on his plate just trying to get back up to speed after missing a lot of time, and recovering from his surgery.
I have seen plenty of guys have big years in their contract year. While Korpisalo had a good year, he didn't over perform.

The study has some vagueness to it. Doesn't really say what players were picked, or how they were picked. Did they just happen to pick guys at random, or did they have a plan on which type of players. Playing at least 500 minutes or 300 innings suggests there were plenty of bench players and/or not everyday players involved. Maybe if they set the criteria higher it may mean more. Like use more everyday guys, or guys that have some star power. For example, they can take a guy like Manny Ramirez who had a nice contract year with the Indians. He hit 38 HR's and knocked in 122 in 118 games. Going to Boston the next 2 years his production in those two categories dropped per game, 41/125/142, 33/107/120. He fit the model of the study exactly, but I don't think anyone in Boston cared, as his numbers were still very good. The study may have proved what they wanted it to, but depending on the situation, sometimes it doesn't mean anything.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

You can doubt it all you want, but that study literally proves that players will over perform in contract years and will likely under perform in the year or two after the contract.

fwiw those studies (which i'm not disagreeing with) may be a bit skewed thanks to players who sign elsewhere having an adjustment period in their new city/organization.

the data shows correlation, the causation people infer is that contract years have some kind of mythological added motivation that wanes when they get their signing bonus, but it's likely due more to guys just struggling in their new surroundings. it happens all the time in pretty much every sport – trea turner and xander bogaerts are obvious examples of this in baseball. can definitely point to some examples in hockey (gaudreau, huberdeau, kadri, etc).

with korpi, there's a much bigger variable (health) at play, which is the more likely explanation for his resurgence.

 

[stevo61]

Korpi had physical issues and Merzlikins has mental. Both can be fixed in many cases but its a wait and see. I think getting the constant reminder with Legace out and someone a little more detached in can help. Who knows how their relationship changed after that event, maybe Legace got soft on him, maybe there was no change and Merzlikins got lost in his own head. Either way they have to try and get him back on track to the goalie he can be and hopefully Babcock+improved team+Backstrom can do that. He doesnt even need to get back to the .923 in the rookie season, if he can get to .910ish for now that would be big for us and him.

 

[majormajor]

It would be next season that it happens. They are counting on him rebounding with an actual system and healthy defense in front of him.


Not necessarily at you but I know someone will bring up how Korpi played well in front of the same defense yada yada yada, but they were in two completely different situations. One had a guaranteed and a bad state of mind while Korpi was playing for a new contract and possibly one of his last NHL contracts.

So now Korpi played better because he was playing for a contract. Had nothing to do with playing pain free from a fixed bad hip for the first time in who knows how long.

Korpi was in a "contract year" the year before last as well. Two straight years. So it doesn't tell you much.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

We'll never be able to move past the whole goalie situation if we can't stop comparing the two. For the love of all things holy and whatever you choose to pray to, let Korpisalo go. He's not here anymore. Focus on the guy who is here.

 

[CBJx614]

We'll never be able to move past the whole goalie situation if we can't stop comparing the two. For the love of all things holy and whatever you choose to pray to, let Korpisalo go. He's not here anymore. Focus on the guy who is here.

WE HAVE NOTHING ELSE TO TALK ABOUTTT.

Seriously though. The season can't get here soon enough.

 

[JacketsDavid]

We'll never be able to move past the whole goalie situation if we can't stop comparing the two. For the love of all things holy and whatever you choose to pray to, let Korpisalo go. He's not here anymore. Focus on the guy who is here.

if Elvis plays well we will be past it.
if Elvis continues to suck then expect every sort of drama about the contract he was given, picking the wrong goalie, etc.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

if Elvis plays well we will be past it.
if Elvis continues to suck then expect every sort of drama about the contract he was given, picking the wrong goalie, etc.

And yet none of that changes anything if he does suck. We don't talk about Wennberg's contract on a daily basis or his replacements around here. The endless comparisons between the 2 players is just getting old and doesn't accomplish anything.

 

[JacketsDavid]

And yet none of that changes anything if he does suck. We don't talk about Wennberg's contract on a daily basis or his replacements around here. The endless comparisons between the 2 players is just getting old and doesn't accomplish anything.

Difference is Wennberg is one of 12-13 forwards and honestly his contract didn't prevent us from signing other forwards. You can bury a forward and let him come around at times.
Elvis is the goalie. We know with his contract we can't afford a 1A goalie. You can't bury a goalie on the bench if you can't afford a regular goalie.

it's much more in comparison to the Horton uninsured contract and what that led to (trade for the worst contract in the NHL just to have a guy who could play and then giving up picks to Vegas to take him).

 

[koteka]

A bad contract is a bad contract. I’d loan him back to Europe or send him to the AHL next season if this season doesn’t work. I’d so the same with a skater with a similar contract. I don’t care that he is a goalie. If we had a chance to sign a good goalie for a decent contract right now, I wouldn’t even consider the Elvis contract. I just see it as about $4 million/year of overpayment and the position doesn’t matter.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

A bad contract is a bad contract. I’d loan him back to Europe or send him to the AHL next season if this season doesn’t work. I’d so the same with a skater with a similar contract. I don’t care that he is a goalie. If we had a chance to sign a good goalie for a decent contract right now, I wouldn’t even consider the Elvis contract. I just see it as about $4 million/year of overpayment and the position doesn’t matter.

But since you personally don't have to manage a salary cap its much easier said than done.

 

[koteka]

But since you personally don't have to manage a salary cap its much easier said than done.

Yup. But we should be nowhere near the limit the next couple of years. We are a bottom 5 team in the Eastern conference this upcoming season. I am not buying the guy out too early and hurting the team when we might be competitive in a few seasons.