The Core Has To Go

[Willchel Marlynder]

He is the only leaf with a game winning goal in round 2 if you are looking at game impact.
To be clear, Marner has double the 5x5 production of points than Willy and 4x the primary assists.

Driving play is a metric we arent talking about. There is an interesting stat on moneypuck called created xgoals minus actual xgoals.
There are 7 players in the negative.
Rielly #1 in the positives, Marner tied with a few players at #2 with a few players with the forwards including Matthews and Knies

Willy is part of the group of 7. In that group...Tavares, O'Rielly, Kerfoot, Jarnkrok, ZAR and Acciari.
Bunting had a net of zero
So if Willy aint scoring a ton, what was he doing instead of that to drive play? He literally only had 1 more goal than Marner.

Marner is the NHL champion for expected statistics it seems. Would be curious what his xStanleyCups is if it could be calculated. Probably something's like 5 Expected Stanley Cups!

Only a team with 1 second round playoff win in who knows how many years would use a stat like "created xgoals minus actual xgoals" to create a hierarchy of flawed playoff performers.

 

[notDatsyuk]

He is the only leaf with a game winning goal in round 2 if you are looking at game impact.
To be clear, Marner has double the 5x5 production of points than Willy and 4x the primary assists.

Driving play is a metric we arent talking about. There is an interesting stat on moneypuck called created xgoals minus actual xgoals.
There are 7 players in the negative.
Rielly #1 in the positives, Marner tied with a few players at #2 with a few players with the forwards including Matthews and Knies

Willy is part of the group of 7. In that group...Tavares, O'Rielly, Kerfoot, Jarnkrok, ZAR and Acciari.
Bunting had a net of zero
So if Willy aint scoring a ton, what was he doing instead of that to drive play? He literally only had 1 more goal than Marner.

And Willy had twice as many goals as Mitch, Matty, and JT combined!

Boy, can really small sample sizes create some really meaningless stats, eh?

 

[Maple Leaf]

I changed my mind
Run it back
Let's do it

 

[sunstersun]

I'm down if Matthews is 13mil.

If he's 14, and Nylander comes in at 9.5. Then we gotta ship Marner out.

 

[Notsince67]

So are you thinking Marner should stay (I’m sure he is going to anyway)? And depending on how much Matthews wants, plus his term, as well as probably having JT for two more years, then Nylander should be traded? Am I correct in assuming we should get a top 4 dman and a top 9 forward for him! Or more? Or less? If that’s the case, we are probably still needing another top 6 forward, another top 4 dman (unless the latter part of the season and playoffs was a one off on Brodie).
And I guess we basically bring most of the boys back until JT’s contract comes off the books.
I know I’m assuming a lot. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see how the summer, the draft, and next season play out.
One thing for sure, though, I have a better feeling heading into this offseason with Tree than I would if we still had Dubas.

Trades are rarely Ala carte. They are usually opportunistic.
I do know that my idea of a top 4 D encompasses a range of players...some of which would be a poor return for Willy. Sames goes for a top 6 forward.
I would keep even Willy if the return wasn't good enough. A Muzzin type player would be great but I wouldn't overpay with a Nylander one for one.

 

[ACC1224]

Watching JT this playoffs is all I need to see to know there is a need for another 2nd line centre. If it's not Marner or Nylander that's fine, but it's gotta be someone because JT at centre is a disaster in the playoffs.

I agree. I think that’s going to be Nylander spot unless they bring someone else in.

 

[Notsince67]

And Willy had twice as many goals as Mitch, Matty, and JT combined!

Boy, can really small sample sizes create some really meaningless stats, eh?

Say what?

 

[JKG33]

Watching Florida get smacked around, after they smacked around this Leafs team, should leave little doubt that this core ain't it

 

[Racer88]

Watching Florida get smacked around, after they smacked around this Leafs team, should leave little doubt that this core ain't it

I’m watching too. Florida has no response to Vegas because Vegas is even tougher and meaner then Florida

 

[notDatsyuk]

Say what?

You said Mitch had the only GWG in round 2. I pointed out that in that same round, Willy had 2 goals - twice as many as Mitch, Matty and JT combined.

If you don't think that's too small a sample, then maybe Willy should be paid $67M (double what Mitch, Matty, and JT made)?

Or maybe it's too small a sample size to base anything on.

 

[facelessjoe1990]

I just realized that the Core had regular season success but the team didn't. No president's trophy or first in the division for the team.

 

[baton elevated]

I am not a fan of his elimination game performances at all. I don't like his compete and how he loses his composure when it matters most. That turning our brains to shambles comment he made once may be quite telling, or projecting what happens to him personally in some situations.

Agreed he could change and about the edge work etc.



I think that's very apparent to majority of fans right now. You don't see Mitch rallying the troops, you don't see him getting in anyones face with conviction or passion. Some of the stuff Marner has been on the ice and witnessed would have had guys like Dougie, Clark, Sundin heck even Dion rushing into the corner and face washing, throwing a shot, getting in the oppositions face putting them on notice. We don't have that, if you really think about it, who do we have that is a glue guy?

I think I have seen more glue type character out of Rielly than the rest of them as far as core goes.

Interesting that Mitch's idol was Dougie G, yet his game emulates no such characteristics. Gilmour was tough as nails and played in your face to go along with the talent. A true competitor that hated to lose all of 170lbs.
This is the crux of the problem with this team they do not possess the hate to lose element. In their post game interviews after loses it's very telling that they can't wait to hit the clubs.

 

[EXTRAS]

My opinion is a mini rebuild. Matthews and 28 to Anaheim for 2nd overall, Mintyukov, and Mctavish and their 2nd round pick. We get their 1st round pick lottery protected next year if he resigns.
Marner to Columbus for 3rd overall, David Jiricek, Kent Johnson, Sean Kuraly and Next year's 1st Top 5 protected.
Nylander to Minnesota for their 1st, Ryan O' Rourke, Markus Foligno

So out to lunch on value it hurts

 

[Boxscore]

I wonder how Nylander would look if he was the opponents primary focus like Matthews and Marner are?

We can speculate all day. But he's not, and in a cap world, he makes a lot less than either. So, to me, this comes down to value based on production vs. salary. Both Marner and Matthews are paid significantly more than Nylander because they are (or are expected to be) better players.

But if we're being honest, using the "opponents primary focus" to attack Nylander is more of an indictment of Marner and Nylander, no? Why is it that Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak, Nate McKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk, Sasha Barkov, etc. are able to produce in the playoffs but our two megastars aren't? Are they the only two stars being focused on and defended?

 

[Stephen]

It all depends when Dreger negotiates mathews new contract lol

He was way more active on the Marner file.

 

[Stephen]

Though in two seasons Tavares 11 mil cap is freed up. The core 4 will become the core three without a trade happening. Tavares only sticks around on a Gio level deal or a hair more

How comfortable would we be with Matthews and $28 million in new core players not named Nylander, Marner and Tavares?

 

[Boxscore]

How comfortable would we be with Matthews and $28 million in new core players not named Nylander, Marner and Tavares?

Here's the catch -- it's not just buying time. With each passing year, and playoff disappointments, the pressure and frustration mounts. I cannot imagine us having this same exact conversation two years from now -- if so, I think Matthews forces his way out unless he truly can care less about winning.

If Treliving runs the core back this year, I think a 1st round exist next year results in napalm being dropped on the team.

 

[Stephen]

Here's the catch -- it's not just buying time. With each passing year, and playoff disappointments, the pressure and frustration mounts. I cannot imagine us having this same exact conversation two years from now -- if so, I think Matthews forces his way out unless he truly can care less about winning.

If Treliving runs the core back this year, I think a 1st round exist next year results in napalm being dropped on the team.

Well. What needs to happen is gradual change, turnover and success.

 

[Boxscore]

Well. What needs to happen is gradual change, turnover and success.

Success being the key word. We need to take a huge step, make it to the Conference Finals, and even if we lose, it has to be a hard fought battle -- no disappearing acts or ghosting by the core. When you look at the teams who have punched above their weight class the last few years, there's no reason we couldn't have made runs with the core playing at their best. But therein lies the rub -- these kids have shown us they have no extra gear in the playoffs when other teams elevate.

 

[Notsince67]

You said Mitch had the only GWG in round 2. I pointed out that in that same round, Willy had 2 goals - twice as many as Mitch, Matty and JT combined.

If you don't think that's too small a sample, then maybe Willy should be paid $67M (double what Mitch, Matty, and JT made)?

Or maybe it's too small a sample size to base anything on.

The comment made was that marner had too many points in 2 games with Tampa and the poster chose to exclude them because they were apparently not impactful enough because they were a big loss and a big win. Now you apparently are OK with this exclusion and point to the games Willy scored where they lost because....just because...?

 

[Notsince67]

We can speculate all day. But he's not, and in a cap world, he makes a lot less than either. So, to me, this comes down to value based on production vs. salary. Both Marner and Matthews are paid significantly more than Nylander because they are (or are expected to be) better players.

But if we're being honest, using the "opponents primary focus" to attack Nylander is more of an indictment of Marner and Nylander, no? Why is it that Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak, Nate McKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk, Sasha Barkov, etc. are able to produce in the playoffs but our two megastars aren't? Are they the only two stars being focused on and defended?

Produce what exactly? What is it that these players produce that Matthews and Marner dont? Let's all get down to your definition of the word produce.

 

[horner]

Of the core 4 the one player that should go first ideally would be Tavares because of age and lack of speed and poor 5v5 play and mainly because his $11 mil is a boat anchor on Leafs Salary Cap.

Problem he has a full NMC and say he plans on playing it out.

Leafs Cap hell began with the luxuary purchase but not required/needed signing of JT to the highest UFA contract in a Salary cap world at the time and they could get themselves out if they could find a team Tavares would agree to go to.

You need to at least have a conversation with him about what needs to be done.
Let him know that his friend marner may have to be traded to keep him.
He'll Tampa won 2 cups and traded one of there best dman a different gm and culture.

 

[Mess]

Nylander's Leaf fate may be tied to his next asking price in combination to what Toronto is willing to give Matthews.

If Matthews asks for 3-5 years at $13-14 mil per and you already have JT at $11 and Marner at $10.9 mil X 2 years each, then how much cap space is there for Nylander?

You have to think coming off a 40 goal season and finishing 2nd in Leafs scoring that he is going to want his salary approaching his teammates.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Here's the catch -- it's not just buying time. With each passing year, and playoff disappointments, the pressure and frustration mounts. I cannot imagine us having this same exact conversation two years from now -- if so, I think Matthews forces his way out unless he truly can care less about winning.

If Treliving runs the core back this year, I think a 1st round exist next year results in napalm being dropped on the team.

It should be dropped already. Seven years is enough.

 

[Budz]

I changed my mind
Run it back
Let's do it

Pure insanity.