The Core Has To Go

[Boxscore]

Not if you open up another good window 1 year from now. Marner and Nylander are still improving, if you start just surrounding them with talent, it might not even take 1 year. And then you have a bunch of entry-level contracts to keep opening some cap flexibility to add.

Cooley and Leonard are not playing this season and will likely spend 2024-25 being groomed or Cooley visiting the A. You simply cannot, under any circumstances, extract Auston Matthews from this team and believe you will contend for anything over the next three seasons. After that, if Cooley is a young Johnny Hockey and Leonard a young Brock Boeser, the Leafs will begin to improve again.

If you trade Matthews for futures -- and not win now players -- you need to reset the timeline. And, if so, the best play is (using your hypothetical model)...

Matthews for Cooley and Leonard.

*Marner for Wyatt Johnston and Thomas Harley.

*Nylander for Olen Zellweger and Top-10 protected 1st in 2024.

That puts Tavares on notice. Does he want to ride it out for a retool or is he willing to waive his NMC for a move to a contender? Him agreeing to waive would be the best case scenario. Does Rielly also want out? If so, you could move him for high-end future pieces that meet the revised 2025-26 timeline. Then in 3 years, the Leafs make a new push with a new, exciting core.

*These are only example deals that represent the "type" of return. I did not research the financials or Dallas and Anaheim contract situations or depth charts.

 

[SOLR]

Cooley and Leonard are not playing this season and will likely spend 2024-25 being groomed or Cooley visiting the A. You simply cannot, under any circumstances, extract Auston Matthews from this team and believe you will contend for anything over the next three seasons. After that, if Cooley is a young Johnny Hockey and Leonard a young Brock Boeser, the Leafs will begin to improve again.

If you trade Matthews for futures -- and not win now players -- you need to reset the timeline. And, if so, the best play is (using your hypothetical model)...

Matthews for Cooley and Leonard.

*Marner for Wyatt Johnston and Thomas Harley.

*Nylander for Olen Zellweger and Top-10 protected 1st in 2024.

That puts Tavares on notice. Does he want to ride it out for a retool or is he willing to waive his NMC for a move to a contender? Him agreeing to waive would be the best case scenario. Does Rielly also want out? If so, you could move him for high-end future pieces that meet the revised 2025-26 timeline. Then in 3 years, the Leafs make a new push with a new, exciting core.

*These are only example deals that represent the "type" of return. I did not research the financials or Dallas and Anaheim contract situations or depth charts.

It's way too much risk for no real benefit. Throwing the baby with the bath water imo. Marner and Willy you can build around for the next 8 years.

Where I think we disagree, is I think the return for Matthews is such that you can have what I'm proposing. Matthews will get 5 1st rounder equivalent. Cooley is 1.5 (3rd overall), (6th overall) Leonard is 1.2, 12th is 1st rounder - probably enough to get PLD and sign him, + 1 player worth a 1st rounder.

 

[rumman]

Cooley and Leonard are not playing this season and will likely spend 2024-25 being groomed or Cooley visiting the A. You simply cannot, under any circumstances, extract Auston Matthews from this team and believe you will contend for anything over the next three seasons. After that, if Cooley is a young Johnny Hockey and Leonard a young Brock Boeser, the Leafs will begin to improve again.

If you trade Matthews for futures -- and not win now players -- you need to reset the timeline. And, if so, the best play is (using your hypothetical model)...

Matthews for Cooley and Leonard.

*Marner for Wyatt Johnston and Thomas Harley.

*Nylander for Olen Zellweger and Top-10 protected 1st in 2024.

That puts Tavares on notice. Does he want to ride it out for a retool or is he willing to waive his NMC for a move to a contender? Him agreeing to waive would be the best case scenario. Does Rielly also want out? If so, you could move him for high-end future pieces that meet the revised 2025-26 timeline. Then in 3 years, the Leafs make a new push with a new, exciting core.

*These are only example deals that represent the "type" of return. I did not research the financials or Dallas and Anaheim contract situations or depth charts.

we've not been contending WITH Mathews, what's the difference...............

 

[Boxscore]

we've not been contending WITH Mathews, what's the difference...............

Asset management. Trading Matthews is trading the face of your franchise. The halo will be enormous on the ice, in the organization, and with the media and fans. It's also unrealistic to remove your star 1st line center and place even more pressure on kids like Marner and Nylander to carry the team for the next couple of years until help is on the way.

Swap Matthews for Pettersson and the Leafs could continue their path and hope the trade pans out. Swapping Matthews for kids who won't contribute for 2-3 years is a whole different approach.

 

[Hockeysawks]

When franchise players become available things can change quickly.

When people were saying paying JT that much money was a bad idea the slogan was "when you can sign a player like JT, you sign JT."
It's not the right time for them to make that trade.

 

[Trapper]

When people were saying paying JT that much money was a bad idea the slogan was "when you can sign a player like JT, you sign JT."
It's not the right time for them to make that trade.

Again signing JT wasn’t a problem. Paying 4 forwards half the cap and not balancing between D and G was one. Giving Tavares a NMC was two. Realizing it was his dream to come here and not standing fast with around a 9.1 mil take it or leave it contract was three.

 

[Stephen]

Asset management. Trading Matthews is trading the face of your franchise. The halo will be enormous on the ice, in the organization, and with the media and fans. It's also unrealistic to remove your star 1st line center and place even more pressure on kids like Marner and Nylander to carry the team for the next couple of years until help is on the way.

Swap Matthews for Pettersson and the Leafs could continue their path and hope the trade pans out. Swapping Matthews for kids who won't contribute for 2-3 years is a whole different approach.

Matthews has his flaws and his 2022-23 season was a big disappointment for me.

There’s no world where I move off Matthews before explore everything else including asking Tavares to leave. There’s no scenario where I would allow for a connection between letting our potential best player in franchise history walk because Tavares had a tiny little NMC we were too scared to ask him to waive.

Beyond that, Marner and Nylander would both be gone before I entertained a Matthews move (assuming he doesn’t want to leave).

 

[Hockeysawks]

Again signing JT wasn’t a problem. Paying 4 forwards half the cap and not balancing between D and G was one. Giving Tavares a NMC was two. Realizing it was his dream to come here and not standing fast with around a 9.1 mil take it or leave it contract was three.

The argument around signing JT was if Mathews and Marner show to be as good or better they will get JT money because thats how the payment structure works on NHL teams.
So it was THE PROBLEM

 

[rumman]

Asset management. Trading Matthews is trading the face of your franchise. The halo will be enormous on the ice, in the organization, and with the media and fans. It's also unrealistic to remove your star 1st line center and place even more pressure on kids like Marner and Nylander to carry the team for the next couple of years until help is on the way.

Swap Matthews for Pettersson and the Leafs could continue their path and hope the trade pans out. Swapping Matthews for kids who won't contribute for 2-3 years is a whole different approach.

if offered, I'd take some lesser yet quailty assets and the cap room over a one for one swap, but that's just me, I could care less about a player's marque status............

 

[Trapper]

The argument around signing JT was if Mathews and Marner show to be as good or better they will get JT money because thats how the payment structure works on NHL teams.
So it was THE PROBLEM

No it wasn’t the problem. They were all RFAs. It was up to the Leafs to set the internal structure, not the players.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Matty is very likely to resign .. i hope we don't overpay again with new GM .. his contract must be inline with MAC's .. and it will be long term too (5-8 years) .. JT will ride out his last 2 years at LW and it will drain our CAP situation (we knew this when he signed) .. da issues are Mitch and Willy???????????? .. we can't carry 4 forwards at half of CAP .. it can't continue .. new GM will need to rebalance team for both regular season and playoff success .. who knows where those discussions go?????????????? .. if it was me I would trade Mitchy for 2 pieces we need and a 1st rounder 2023 .. a big fast aggressive top 2 D and a big fast winger likely RWer who can pot 30 .. then resign ROR with savings as we need a 2C .. use pick from trade to draft a C in June 2023 and then draft a D with 2nd 1st rounder 2023 .. then resign Willy if he is reasonable at 8-9M AAV longer term .. team might lose a few points but still makes playoffs but be in a better position in playoffs

 

[mikeyz]

They have people calling them greedy worthless peices of poo in the streets millions of people posting and tweeting about them. The pressure and stress is off the charts compared to other players in less crazy cities and compared to normal people it's not even imaginable.

Hey Paul Marner. How’s it going?

 

[Hockeysawks]

Hey Paul Marner. How’s it going?

I'm not Paul nor am I a psychiatrist but I did stay at a holiday inn express last night and I think we should investigate why you hate a hockey player's dad just because said player is not as great at hockey as you think you deserve him to be

 

[keonsbitterness]

Wouldn’t it be a nice surprise if Shanahan hired a new GM AND President, falls on his sword and solves all the Leaf s problems from Ownership down……….

Can't see him ever neutering himself like that. The board also loves Shanahan, so he basically is ownership.

 

[Boxscore]

Matthews has his flaws and his 2022-23 season was a big disappointment for me.

There’s no world where I move off Matthews before explore everything else including asking Tavares to leave. There’s no scenario where I would allow for a connection between letting our potential best player in franchise history walk because Tavares had a tiny little NMC we were too scared to ask him to waive.

Beyond that, Marner and Nylander would both be gone before I entertained a Matthews move (assuming he doesn’t want to leave).

Agreed. The caveat is his camp floating a number out there that is not sustainable for long-term success. We simply cannot construct a legitimate Cup contender if Matthews insists on being paid more than Connor McDavid and Nate MacKinnon. In fact, he should sign a long-term deal equivalent to what Matthew Tkachuk just signed with Florida but that ship sailed. In no way, shape, or form can Auston Matthews be handed a blank check this time around, full stop.

That said, trading Matthews (if he wants to commit and give the Leafs a hometown discount) should not even be considered unless it's a blockbuster hockey deal that brings back an elite player who is a better fit -- and there might be 10 of those players on the planet, none of which likely available.

The only way you trade Matthews for futures is if:

A. The alternative is losing him for nothing as a UFA

B. You are nuking the entire core and resetting the timeline. A step back to take three steps forward approach.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Matthews is the bigger return and easiest to trade because he's a centre. There are also a number of teams sitting on draft assets + A-quality centre prospects. Arizona with Cooley and 2 first rounder in the top 12. San Jose with pick 4 and Bystedt. Etc.

If you could get Cooley + Leonard (6th overall) + PLD (trade with 12th overall) + X for Matthews do you really say no? Granted you'd have to wait 1-2 years to contend again, but there would be another window soon.

The prevailing logic is that the team that gets the better player wins the trade, and unless you are rebuilding or filling a specific need, you don't give up one good player for two lesser ones. Your suggestion is one for four. And again, one year and a huge cap hit aren't the easiest to trade.

 

[Peace Frog]

Let’s not kid ourselves, deep down we all know that the core is going to be back. I guess the only real question left is, who can we surround these guys with? Who can get these guys to break out when it really counts? God only knows!

When it comes to who the next GM is going to be, Treliving is likely going to get the nod and that doesn’t excite me very much.

What I’m even more interested in is, who our next coach will be? I’d be pretty surprised if Keefe is still here when the season starts.

Whoever the next coach is, is going to have to find a way to get every bit of commitment out of each and every player. Got to hold them all accountable and get them to all buy in to the program.

Going to be an interesting next couple of months. Hopefully it all works out.

 

[SOLR]

The prevailing logic is that the team that gets the better player wins the trade, and unless you are rebuilding or filling a specific need, you don't give up one good player for two lesser ones. Your suggestion is one for four. And again, one year and a huge cap hit aren't the easiest to trade.

1) It's a sign and trade obviously.

2) For the Leafs getting better is not correlated to star talent it's correlated to talent in all the right spots to win playoffs hockey games. This group isn't doing that and is not about to do that. By trading 1 guy for more overall talent in more positions the leafs become stronger and Cooley could be more useful than Matthews (speed, elusiveness) in the playoffs potentially. Arizona needs a 1C for Keller now, they have tons of middle 6 talent.

 

[notDatsyuk]

There’s no point even mentioning Tavares.

If Willy wants 10+ trade him. If he willl sign a fair deal then trade marner

There is if the discussion is about who is the better (or worse) player, which is what I was responding to originally.

If the discussion is about trading players, then no.

Personally, I'd rather give Willy 10 than Mitch, but I'd prefer to give either about 9.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think i would roll the dice if we could sneak in murray.

I think jones would consider toronto. It isnt such a downgrade of a city from chicago imo. I think nylander may be the better player but if we dump a little extra cap i think its worth it. He may be the best singular piece we can get on short notice. I think we can sign a top 6 easier and cheaper than a top pair rd. Jones might be able to put it together and be happier on a better team.

Rielly. Jones
Mccabe. Lilly
Gio. Brodie

Think Jones lived in Toronto as a kid too.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Not if you open up another good window 1 year from now. Marner and Nylander are still improving, if you start just surrounding them with talent, it might not even take 1 year. And then you have a bunch of entry-level contracts to keep opening some cap flexibility to add (they have to, in order to transition out of the Tavares situation)

My proposal is lateral enough, it gets both future and PLD as a "good enough" replacement for Matthews. Getting Petterson would get you far fewer assets and cap flexibility for little added benefits.

<== 2x core over 11m, 2x8 million players, but you are up 2 top 6 players on entry level
Tavares - PLD - Willy
Knies - Cooley - Marner
Leonard - X - X

Is vastly superior to this:
Tavares - Pettersson - Willy
Knies - X - Marner

You can't make a lateral move for Matthews, because the problem is the cap, not Matthews the player himself. There is no point in trading Matthews without creating cap flexibility, and entry-level contracts that can play in the top 6 are the solution (rare, so you need to be intentional about it)

In 1994, the Nordiques traded Mats Sundin from their core to the Leafs, they were back in contention in 1995, and won the cup a year after. They did this by keeping Sakic, shifting Sundin into Forsberg (entry level). They were hyper-salary limited, that's why they moved to Colorado. It's a similar situation.

I threw up a little when I saw Tavares on the top line - he's not much more than a 3rd liner now.

That lineup might not make the playoffs.

 

[SOLR]

I threw up a little when I saw Tavares on the top line - he's not much more than a 3rd liner now.

That lineup might not make the playoffs.

It does make the playoffs, easily. Tavares on the wings is fine, if you need to play Knies / others higher you do that. It's about managing Tavares time.


You are missing the point that this lineup gives you a lot more depth in the bottom 6 and D.

 

[Racer88]

The prevailing logic is that the team that gets the better player wins the trade, and unless you are rebuilding or filling a specific need, you don't give up one good player for two lesser ones. Your suggestion is one for four. And again, one year and a huge cap hit aren't the easiest to trade.

What if the 2 lessor players are more motivated and committed to win then the 1 better skilled player

 

[Gabriel426]

It’s quite sad that we are debating how bad our top 4 guys are instead of winning the Cup at this point of the season.

 

[ICBM]

The thing with this core is they are not smart players. Not a huge problem by itself. But they are s o f t. If they can't outsmart the opponent, there is no plan B. They can't storm the crease.