We are in a bind and it all started with the Tavares contract, which completely falls on Shanahan and Dubas. That was their moment in time to set the tone for how the organization was going to operate from a commitment standpoint.
Tavares insisted he only left the Islanders so he could come home and live out his dream of playing with the Leafs. But he did so at the expense of signing the 2nd largest cap hit in the NHL at the time behind McDavid. This was a massive fail by Shanny and Dubas considering...
The following summer Nikita Kucherov (coming off an Art Ross winning 128 point season) signed a long-term, team-friendly extension at 9.5 million per in order to keep the Bolts core in place. Yzerman was quoted as saying, "From a team's perspective, it helps us going forward knowing the (NHL salary) cap numbers of the players, knowing the commitment we have to make other decisions accordingly." This was in complete contrast to the way the Leafs brass handled their business with Tavares.
The Leafs, loaded with their own homegrown talent pool similar to the Lightning, decided to make a huge splash in free agency before taking care of their own soldiers. When Shanahan and Dubas gave Tavares the 2nd largest cap hit in the NHL and stitched the C on his chest, the precedent was set.
Shanahan immediately followed the Tavares signing with his infamous, "Our players are going to have to take less to play for the Toronto Maple Leafs" quote and agents across the league LOL'd. What followed was nothing short of a cap disaster, including a lost game of chicken with Nylander, a moderate-to-high overpayment of Marner, and a complete submission to Matthews in both cap hit and term.
And it all started with paying John Tavares an $11 million cap hit when they could have made him a fair but firm "do you really wanna come home and be a part of this budding team" offer of a $9.5 million annual deal, which was exactly what a more talented and proven Kucherov agreed to a year later. In fact, all of the Bolts historically took less to keep the core together -- Hedman, Stamkos, Kucherov, Vasilevskiy, and Point. The Leafs had their chance to set the tone and they failed miserably.
If Tavares declines, so what? That means he was more interested in a severe overpayment from San Jose or Long Island and not truly motivated by living out his dream of playing in Toronto. Or, even worse, he has no backbone and was unwilling to tell his agent, "Get it done with the Leafs" the way Kevin Shattenkirk did a year later when he took a lot less as a UFA to sign with the Rangers.
If Tavares agrees to a $9.5 cap hit, it immediately sets the tone for the young Leafs to follow his lead, which likely equals $6.25 for Nylander, $9.25 for Marner, and $10 mil for Matthews (on a longer term). That also means the Leafs have an extra $5+ million a year in cap space to upgrade the core with more adequate depth to compete for a Cup. Most importantly, it establishes a winning culture in Toronto like it did in Tampa and Colorado, where everyone was willing to take a bit less for the betterment of the team. Instead, Shanny and Dubas unlocked the vault, opened it for Tavares, and the young stars lined up to get their cuts. To our chagrin, they handed Matthews the keys to the getaway car.
Now we're stuck. Shanny and Dubas made their bed and Dubas was jettisoned before the house collapses. This is now all on Shanahan. The only way this can end well is if Matthews resets the culture and leaves a ton of cap and term on the table with his next contract so the core can remain with money left over for improvements. Then Nylander and Marner must follow his lead. If not, we're just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic until the next rebuild is upon us.
Unfortunately, at this point, Shanny needs to handle Matthews the same way he handled Dubas -- no more pampering, no more caving, no more conceding. If Auston truly wants to remain a Leaf he needs to show it. If he demands $14 or $15+ mil a year to stay instead of $12.75 or $13 (and being the highest cap hit in the NHL) then his priorities are not aligned with winning a Cup, period. And if so, the Leafs need to make some very tough but honest decisions about him and any other player who isn't willing to right the ship.
This core has been given everything they have asked for and then some. They've been spoiled financially, in the room, off the ice, in the media, and by the fans. It's time they do their part.
