The Core Has To Go

[ULF_55]

The only one of the core 4 that can go via trade is really Nylander without tuning this upside down.

JT has a bullet proof non buyout contract with a full NMC that he claims he isn't going anywhere with at his recent end of season PC. If that is his position to play out his contract in TO then his NMC gives him full control to do so.

Both Marner and Matthews have NMC that kick in July 1st .. If Leafs trade Auston's best pal Mitch in the coming weeks that increases the odds Matthews also departs thereafter. So trading Marner likely to cost them both players anyways,

If the Leafs trade Matthews they're moving on from their best player and weakening the team, the cause and effect of essentially shooting themselves in the foot and then all else that follows in that wake undetermined and uncertain.

IMO, marner won't leave if Matthews leaves, or because Matthews is traded prior to July.
He's under contract for another 2 years, and he's had his way here since the beginning.
If Matthews won't sign if marner is traded, then he'll likely walk, or he'll agree to a sign and trade so the receiving team can get an 8 year deal.

No rush on Nylander he can be traded anytime, the NTC, when it kicks in, isn't that strict.

I do have a concern about Matthews ability to stay healthy.

 

[seventieslord]

Yeah that’s nice in theory, but who?
Free agent signings?

Would love to see everyone’s reaction if we managed to move JT and brought in 2nd line C Monahan and replacement D John Klingberg instead.

Ride out the JT contract, he’s a PPG C still. Give me JT + Schenn over Monahan/ROR + Klingberg/Dumba any day. All of which will get much longer contracts than 2 years.

I'm not necessarily advocating for UFAs and certainly not those ones in particular. That's not the only way to acquire players. There are hockey trades that can be made as well, involving the likes of Marner and Nylander. One could foresee a scenario in which we take back the same amount of salary, or even more, in an effort to balance the team. This is a GM's job, not mine.

Riding out the JT contract is an admission and acknowledgement that the next two years are a complete writeoff in which we will not seriously contend for a cup, and when you have AM/MM/WN at 25-27 during that time, that's completely unacceptable.

 

[Mess]

IMO, marner won't leave if Matthews leaves, or because Matthews is traded prior to July.
He's under contract for another 2 years, and he's had his way here since the beginning.
If Matthews won't sign if marner is traded, then he'll likely walk, or he'll agree to a sign and trade so the receiving team can get an 8 year deal.

No rush on Nylander he can be traded anytime, the NTC, when it kicks in, isn't that strict.

I do have a concern about Matthews ability to stay healthy.

I agree Marner the local Ontario kid that grew up on the Leafs is the least likely fear of walking away even if the Leafs dealt Matthews in the upcoming weeks.

On Matthews timing is everything because as an American born player he has no long term loyalty to a foreign country and returning home to USA more likely a outcome or desire. If they traded his linemate and pal Mitch that adds another strike to staying on long-term and once July 1st kicks in he has full control of that outcome.

Willy is also a happy go lucky Swede and so Canada and Toronto also not his 'real home" He heads back to Sweden the day after the Leafs seasons ends and returns for work purposes a few days before camp starts and so he can do that from any market CDN or USA that is willing to pay him on his next contract. Can't count on long term loyalty.

JT contract as mentioned is written in stone and as a local kid that grew up in Leafs PJs and dreaming of playing here, now that he returned and is captain is playing out that contract and likely even wanting a new deal after this one to finish his career here.

All things considered Willy would be the easiest to trade but that doesn't fix 3 X $11 mil cap hit players on the same team. So if you really want to move on from this core then moving their #1 and franchise center Matthews through process of eliminaton due to risk of loss for nothing, and next $$ contract, and injury history and you would need to do that in the next 6 weeks.

What can you get for a Rocket and Hart #1C with 1 year left on his contract?

 

[Boxscore]

Not a chance. If he wants to play, there's a contract waiting for him somewhere. Not for anything close to 11 million but for a good two or three million more than he's worth, I'm quite certain.

He's not the first good player whose skating sucks. They all found ways to extend their careers and so will he.

Tavares will absolutely continue playing in the NHL after his deal with the Leafs. He will likely go the way of Joe Pavelski and Corey Perry. In fact, he'll likely be a brilliant depth piece for a contender and win a Cup towards the end of his career.

 

[rumman]

The only one of the core 4 that can go via trade is really Nylander without tuning this upside down.

JT has a bullet proof non buyout contract with a full NMC that he claims he isn't going anywhere with at his recent end of season PC. If that is his position to play out his contract in TO then his NMC gives him full control to do so.

Both Marner and Matthews have NMC that kick in July 1st .. If Leafs trade Auston's best pal Mitch in the coming weeks that increases the odds Matthews also departs thereafter. So trading Marner likely to cost them both players anyways,

If the Leafs trade Matthews they're moving on from their best player and weakening the team, the cause and effect of essentially shooting themselves in the foot and then all else that follows in that wake undetermined and uncertain.

So, I say let the culling begin, no sense slowly taking the bandage off, if the three amigos have to go better now than never, they already have too much leverage imo………

 

[RoadWarrior]

Ii would but they wont


I want him gone today.

Trading Rielly would be idiotic.

The only one of the core 4 that can go via trade is really Nylander without tuning this upside down.

JT has a bullet proof non buyout contract with a full NMC that he claims he isn't going anywhere with at his recent end of season PC. If that is his position to play out his contract in TO then his NMC gives him full control to do so.

Both Marner and Matthews have NMC that kick in July 1st .. If Leafs trade Auston's best pal Mitch in the coming weeks that increases the odds Matthews also departs thereafter. So trading Marner likely to cost them both players anyways,

If the Leafs trade Matthews they're moving on from their best player and weakening the team, the cause and effect of essentially shooting themselves in the foot and then all else that follows in that wake undetermined and uncertain.

Trading Huberdeau didn’t hurt the Panthers. It all depends on the return.

 

[Warden of the North]

The leafs could re-sign Tavares but it’s almost a guarantee he will be bought out of his current contract. It would be strange if a team re-signed a guy they just bought out of a contract. Tavares doesn’t need the money. He‘ll likely retire.

I don't think a team is allowed re-sign a player they just bought out.

 

[thusk]

Did you watch the Tampa/Leafs series ?? Go back and watch games 2,3, and 4 and tell me how good Vasi was. Hedman missed most of game #1 and #2. Cernak missed all but 11 minutes of the series. Vasi was bad and playing behind a thin defense. Our guys took advantage.

Riddle me this, what other goalie have the Leafs lit up in 7 playoff runs ??

Ullmark was trash in the later half of the Bruins/Panthers series. May have been hurt. Tkachuk just scored 2 OT goals out of the 5 total goals the Panthers scored against a solid Canes' team in round #3. When the chips are down, I'll take MT over any current Leaf.

Gm 2 the entire lightning team was trash and totally outplayed by leafs, vasilevskiy effect just dont work there

Gm 3 and 4 lets see wich goal was weak.. oreilly goal and rielly goal for game 3 and rielly goal gm 4, the r3st was pretty high level stop... you can remove 2 pass

Yep hedman and cernak was injured, do you removed credit to tkachuk who didn't had to play against the best defensive foward of the NHL.

Kampf and Lafferty did.
ROR and Kerfoot did.
Bunting and Knies did.
Woll did.

Honestly, what are you trying to say, that AM, MM, JT and Willie are good and it is the support that didn’t show up or they are being out goalied. Our top and most expensive guys didn’t show up while other teams guys did.

Let’s not pretend we were shutout for four games.
If AM, MM, JT and Willie can score just two more goals in the Panthers series, we would most likely still be playing right now.

I really don’t know what games you are watching but the remaining four teams are playing in a higher intensity level than what the boys showed against the Panthers. If the boys maintained the same level they had against TB, they would be up 2-0 against the Canes.

You can’t show up for one series and completely disappeared in the next one. Then expect to advance to the next round.

Give it a rest. The top guys didn’t show up when it matters again. Right now they are trending toward being really good role player on a Cup Winning team instead the top dogs on a team.

2nd, 3nd and 4th line scored 6 for toronto in 2nd round... number of goal leafs scored when matthews and marner was not on the ice in 2 round is 15

2nd round goal from Bottom 9 of
florida 8
Carolina 19
Dallas 15
Vegas 9

The only thing i said is you cant expect than 1 line will carry the team all playoff long. You will never win that way whatever how good they are because it will happen everytime...

Marner/Matthews duo had been on the ice for 55% of leafs goal 1st+2nd round and we talked about him who didn't get the job done and didn't made difference for leafa

Tkachuk had been on the ice for 40% of panthers goal 1st and 2nd round and we talked about how good he was and how much he changed absolutly everything for Florida...

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

This will probably be a long post.
This is what a I would do, but understand few would likely agree.

To me, this all starts and ends with JT not Matthews when charting the course for the Leafs.

I ask JT to provide 6 teams he would go to. If he declines are we can’t move him - I blow it all up and make sure he knows how crappy it will be.

He can be Tank Commander Captain for 2 years where we collect picks and trade for youth and a clean cap. This contact (JT) will ruin any hope of doing anything for the next 2 years.

Gone:
Matthews, Willy and Marner, I also ask Rielly to waive.

Play all the kids and get top 5 picks.

Buy short term bad contracts for picks/ players.

Build talent (through the trades) and take a run at McDavid in FA.

Now - If JT agrees to be traded:

I believe we can do a mini-rebuild with Matthews and Nylander staying. Trade Marner for Dman. Use JT cap dollars to get a 2C.

New management hopefully brings a culture change going to a more playoff style team and roster.

I can’t see winning anything with 91 and the value loss of that contract.

Only problem with the trading JT idea is that we would probably have to retain around 50% in order to move him....that would put a huge dent in trying to do a mini rebuild. I am in some ways in favor of blowing this up completely. Reason being, the well is spoiled and I am not sure if you can really do a patchwork job on this team even with AM staying...he might even be part of the problem in the first place for all we know....or it could be Marner...I just don't know.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Only problem with the trading JT idea is that we would probably have to retain around 50% in order to move him....that would put a huge dent in trying to do a mini rebuild. I am in some ways in favor of blowing this up completely. Reason being, the well is spoiled and I am not sure if you can really do a patchwork job on this team even with AM staying...he might even be part of the problem in the first place for all we know....or it could be Marner...I just don't know.

I'd hang on to JT for now and dangle AM and MM - but only if AM seems like he's the entitled I'll see player I think he is

 

[Gabriel426]

Gm 2 the entire lightning team was trash and totally outplayed by leafs, vasilevskiy effect just dont work there

Gm 3 and 4 lets see wich goal was weak.. oreilly goal and rielly goal for game 3 and rielly goal gm 4, the r3st was pretty high level stop... you can remove 2 pass

Yep hedman and cernak was injured, do you removed credit to tkachuk who didn't had to play against the best defensive foward of the NHL.

2nd, 3nd and 4th line scored 6 for toronto in 2nd round... number of goal leafs scored when matthews and marner was not on the ice in 2 round is 15

2nd round goal from Bottom 9 of
florida 8
Carolina 19
Dallas 15
Vegas 9

The only thing i said is you cant expect than 1 line will carry the team all playoff long. You will never win that way whatever how good they are because it will happen everytime...

Marner/Matthews duo had been on the ice for 55% of leafs goal 1st+2nd round and we talked about him who didn't get the job done and didn't made difference for leafa

Tkachuk had been on the ice for 40% of panthers goal 1st and 2nd round and we talked about how good he was and how much he changed absolutly everything for Florida...

Nobody expect them to do all the scoring but it would be nice if AM, JT and MM score more than ONCE in 5 games.

They dropped the ball and they know it.
The fact that they combined for 106 goals in the regular with AM having a down year, that’s more than a goal per game from those three and they ended up getting ONE in 5 games with close to all the PP time.

That’s a reason why they are being paid over 10mil plus per year. Guys like Kampf, Lafferty, Acciari, ROR, ZAR, Bunting, Knies, Kerfoot and Willie did carry the load bc they scored 7 of 10 goals in the second round when they combined to make around 22mil.

AM, MM and JT needs to do more than just ONE goal in 5 playoffs games. The fact that fans like yourself is giving them a pass is puzzling to say the least. Bc they don’t deserve a pass after yet another failed in the playoffs. I would not even use the word choke anymore bc in order to choke, you have to have it in them but I don’t think they ever had it to begin with. They are really just guys who crack under pressure and needs other players to lead them.

 

[Dayjobdave]

New coach, new system, new supporting cast, maybe we keep the 4 and see who performs.

 

[sxvnert]

I don't think a team is allowed re-sign a player they just bought out.

Only after a year.

 

[rielledup]

As I posted in another thread, I like the idea of trading Marner for a 1d to a team that needs help scoring and has good depth on d and might consider doing that. Not an elite 1d that is a potential Norris nominee but just a legit solid 1d. I think Noah Dobson and the Islanders fit that description. Then you use the extra cap space on a solid top 6 winger who hopefully is also big and physical and hope that knies can be a solid top 6er next season. Your top six would still be looking really good but the team would be much more balanced.

 

[myleafs]

Hypothetically we move JT out and then what?
Who do we fill his spot with? More overpaid UFA signings?

Keep JT, let him take a massive hometown discount after these next 2 years.

Why would you assume that? How about 2 decent hardworking battlers with a bit of skill? Or 6-8 milly player and use some of that cap elsewhere.....etc etc

 

[Eye Test]

If the leafs don’t sign Matthews by July1st then he needs to be traded. We absolutely cannot risk him just walking. But the setup of this situation just sucks given even Marner has a NMC kicking in July 1st, so to me even decisions on Marner ideally have to be done by July 1st. Such an annoying situation. We need someone with balls to make a bold move here. Fact is this group is not getting it done, a bit of a culture reset needs to happen as well- results need to be the thing that talks, these guys have been given ample opportunity

Nah wait even marner has a NMC? And it kicks in the same time Matthews does?

Jesus Christ Dubas is a goof..?

 

[BallardEra]

New coach, new system, new supporting cast, maybe we keep the 4 and see who performs.

Wouldn’t this be their third coach now? Plus I highly doubt a new GM is going to come in and keep the status quo.

 

[Eye Test]

34 is a loser but I still sign him to a fair contract 8 years. If we lose him blow it up. We’re not retooling around marner or nylander get real lol.

 

[Dayjobdave]

Wouldn’t this be their third coach now? Plus I highly doubt a new GM is going to come in and keep the status quo.

Maybe third time is a charm.

we were in the second round playing a possession game that doesn’t work with prison rules playoff hockey. Regular season has been fine. Get some grunts and protect our stars. Let’s see what we can do.

Hey I was in the Seth Jones for Marner camp so what do I know. Maybe Werenski for Nylander.

But maybe get the core a good coach

 

[Superstar]

Why would you assume that? How about 2 decent hardworking battlers with a bit of skill? Or 6-8 milly player and use some of that cap elsewhere.....etc etc

How about a $5 million 40 goal LW? I wish we had a chance at a player like Jared McCann...

 

[hockeywiz542]

The Maple Leafs’ 10 biggest priorities for the next GM: Auston Matthews’ extension, star trade, coach, more

The next Maple Leafs GM — whoever that may be — has a lot to do and almost no time to do it.

theathletic.com

2. Assess market for star trade/make star trade

Tavares is a tricky one obviously. He makes a lot — at $11 million on the cap for the next two seasons — and he’ll be 33 in the fall. He can, crucially, decline to go anywhere, what with his no-movement clause.

A contending team might be interested if the Leafs retained money in the deal and attached assets. A bad/rebuilding team could be interested to take on the full deal (maybe?) if the Leafs really make it worth their while with picks, prospects etc.

In which case, it stops making sense for the Leafs.

Could the Leafs make a Tavares trade but also get a helpful player, maybe on a bad contract himself, in return? (My first thought on that was San Jose and Logan Couture, who has an $8 million cap hit. Problem No. 1: Couture has four years left on his contract. Problem No. 2: Couture is 34. So, the Leafs would be netting $3 million in cap space for the next two seasons but adding two more problematic seasons after that. So yeah, probably a no.)

And again, there’s Tavares, who won’t be inclined to leave his hometown team to play for a cellar dweller or any other team for that matter in all likelihood.

Which means it’s almost certain that one of either Marner or Nylander moves. And what that decision may boil down to is which path is preferable to the Leafs GM:

1. Keep Nylander, pay Nylander, trade Marner

2. Don’t pay Nylander, trade Nylander, keep Marner

Nylander can sign an extension on July 1 and you have to assume he’ll be looking for $9 million-plus on a long-term deal. (Word of warning to the next Leafs GM: Nylander’s agent Lewis Gross won’t be pushed around.)

If the Leafs and their new GM don’t want to pay that kind of price for Nylander then he feels like the likelier star to go. But wait, you might say! Wouldn’t he have less trade value than Marner, what with the single year left on his contract? Yes.

However, it’s reasonable to assume that any team parting with assets to acquire Nylander is a team that wants to be in the Nylander business for the long haul. In other words, that team might well be interested in executing a sign-and-trade with the Leafs, which would obviously help greatly in the return.

That team would be getting Nylander at $6.9 million on the cap for next season, superb value, and years and years after that.

Nylander has a limited no-trade clause that kicks in on Canada Day, so there’s that to keep in mind. However, the Leafs will obviously know what they’re going to do with him and his contract by then.

If they do decide to extend Nylander, Marner would be the piece to move. Which is, well, a big meatball. Marner has a no-movement clause that also kicks in on Canada Day, at which point he’ll have total say on his future.

He’s got two years left at $10.9 million on the cap. He can sign an extension next summer, which will be much larger in size. That’s another part of this conversation: Are the Leafs interested in paying his next contract? Or would they rather pay Nylander instead?

Which player nets more in return: Marner with the two years left on his deal or Nylander in a sign-and-trade? It might still be Marner, the superior all-around player. But you could argue for Nylander too. And that’s what the Leafs will have to explore in trade talks.

Could the Leafs trade both? I suppose, but that feels unlikely.

Part of the conversation for the next Leafs GM should be determining which player they believe will deliver more in future postseasons. Nylander probably has the slight edge from the past few playoffs, but it’s close, what with the value that Marner delivers defensively.

Another part of the conversation: What exactly do the Leafs want in return? Ideally, it’s a talented young forward (ideally, a centre) who can help replace the outgoing production at a lesser price, not to mention other stuff like picks and prospects and maybe even ready-made help on defence.

Trading Marner might well net even more cap space.

Maybe (likely?) it’s a blockbuster with lots of names involved.

 

[KMNRB]

It has been well documented that our 2nd round series was lost in the first 2 minutes of the 2nd period of Game 2. In light of the theme of the money talk revealed in Shanahan's press conference, it just occurred to me that the couple of terrible plays by Nylander/Marner/Matthews might be a reflection of our stars playing scared because they care more about their contracts than winning. They had just endured 4 periods of head hunting by a couple of crazy dudes (Bennett and Tkachuk), and witnessed the concussion suffered by Knies. Just think, how would a concussion affect their upcoming contract negotiation?

If players care more about their contracts than about winning (not that they don't care about winning, but just not as much as their next mega contracts), it is human nature to be scared. (I mean, if I were in their shoes, I would too). This would explain the uncharacterized bad plays in those two minutes.

This is perhaps also reflected in the end of season press. They all talked more about the contract status than how devastated they were about the loss (in comparison to the oilers stars).

And that's also how this core folded in the Montreal series, when Montreal decided to hit the hell out of you.

If my hypothesis is true, then the core won't win anything with this mentality. Once money and star status become more significant than winning, the negativity of such attitude would spread from contract talks to folding in hard playoff games. Maybe once they net the next big contracts that would change, but not if they sign a four to five year contract vs an eight-year contract.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Mr Knies Guy]

The only one of the core 4 that can go via trade is really Nylander without tuning this upside down.

JT has a bullet proof non buyout contract with a full NMC that he claims he isn't going anywhere with at his recent end of season PC. If that is his position to play out his contract in TO then his NMC gives him full control to do so.

Both Marner and Matthews have NMC that kick in July 1st .. If Leafs trade Auston's best pal Mitch in the coming weeks that increases the odds Matthews also departs thereafter. So trading Marner likely to cost them both players anyways,

If the Leafs trade Matthews they're moving on from their best player and weakening the team, the cause and effect of essentially shooting themselves in the foot and then all else that follows in that wake undetermined and uncertain.

According to CJ’s cast today, Shanny all but told core four they are safe, said (paraphrasing) that he doesn’t think there is intention to move them.

Wonder if Dubas was finally willing to move off them and Shanny and board were going to veto anything

 

[saltming]

According to CJ’s cast today, Shanny all but told core four they are safe, said (paraphrasing) that he doesn’t think there is intention to move them.

Wonder if Dubas was finally willing to move off them and Shanny and board were going to veto anything