The case for trading Igor (at some point)

[Machinehead]

The presentation is a bit ranty, but OP isn't wrong. Under no circumstances would I give Igor his next contract.

Goaltending doesn't matter and the only thing poisoning the discourse right now is Vasilevskiy. He's very good but he played on a team that didn't need goaltending to win.

Vasi's goals saved above expected were nothing to write home about in 2019, 2020, 2021, or 2022. That's because he's not expected to give up many - the team doesn't give up chances.

By far his best season by that metric was 2023. What happened to the Lightning?

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

The next two years of this contract are this teams window full stop.

If they can’t win before then, the entire team needs to be reconfigured

Same situation as Hank where they’re going to be paying him an exorbitant amount but what can you do

 

[irishlaxburger2]

The next two years of this contract are this teams window full stop.

If they can’t win before then, the entire team needs to be reconfigured

Same situation as Hank where they’re going to be paying him an exorbitant amount but what can you do

Yep, there’s still surplus value in his current deal. It’s unlikely to exist for long in his next one.

 

[LokiDog]

I agree with the OP.

I would HATE to trade Shesty. I love him, I think he’s better than he was this regular season - closer to his Vezina form - and was great in the playoffs.

But the difference between a 2.10 goalie and a 2.73 goalie is 51 goals a year, and that’s IF they played all 82 games which no goalie does. So let’s call it 40 goals a year. I’d rather spend 5.5-6.5M on goaltending than 10M on goaltending and simply build a team that can win with a 2.60 goaltender.

This year Ullmark was an outlier at 1.89 and the next starter was at 2.10. The 32nd “best” goalie in the league (20+ starts) was at 2.94. The difference between 2nd and 32nd is .84 goals per game. Vasilevsky was 16th (middle) at 2.65. Shesterkin was at 2.48.

I’d rather pay a goalie who posts a 2.55-2.75 GAA 6M per year than pay a goalie 10M to have a 2.25 GAA. It just doesn’t make sense.

Shesterkin is my favorite goalie in the league bar-none. What he does, especially considering he isn’t a 6’4 monster like most of these top goalies these days is awesome. He’s entertaining and he’s a beast. I just don’t think it’s good cap management to pay a goalie more than 7M absolute maximum, and Shesty will turn 30 years old 3 months into his next contract. Giving Shesterkin 9-10M (more if the cap goes up a lot) from 30-37 is not smart cap management. Sucks to accept that reality, but it’s very difficult to argue against it, honestly.

 

[Synergy27]

How many Cups did Tampa win after Vasi got paid?

 

[Synergy27]

I agree with the OP.

I would HATE to trade Shesty. I love him, I think he’s better than he was this regular season - closer to his Vezina form - and was great in the playoffs.

But the difference between a 2.10 goalie and a 2.73 goalie is 51 goals a year, and that’s IF they played all 82 games which no goalie does. So let’s call it 40 goals a year. I’d rather spend 5.5-6.5M on goaltending than 10M on goaltending and simply build a team that can win with a 2.60 goaltender.

This year Ullmark was an outlier at 1.89 and the next starter was at 2.10. The 32nd “best” goalie in the league (20+ starts) was at 2.94. The difference between 2nd and 32nd is .84 goals per game. Vasilevsky was 16th (middle) at 2.65. Shesterkin was at 2.48.

I’d rather pay a goalie who posts a 2.55-2.75 GAA 6M per year than pay a goalie 10M to have a 2.25 GAA. It just doesn’t make sense.

Shesterkin is my favorite goalie in the league bar-none. What he does, especially considering he isn’t a 6’4 monster like most of these top goalies these days is awesome. He’s entertaining and he’s a beast. I just don’t think it’s good cap management to pay a goalie more than 7M absolute maximum, and Shesty will turn 30 years old 3 months into his next contract. Giving Shesterkin 9-10M (more if the cap goes up a lot) from 30-37 is not smart cap management. Sucks to accept that reality, but it’s very difficult to argue against it, honestly.

You and I wouldn’t make good real life friends because we agree on everything.

Well, we agree about Shesty and Panarin at least.

This is exactly how I feel. It also adds to the pain when we lose against rando goalies and get to see our HOFers dealing with the mental anguish associated with that.

 

[apoptygma]

Looks like most agree that we should not be the team signing Igors next contract (if he does sign to market value). The question then remains if we should let him play out his contract or trade him this summer or next. Personally I'm against letting any major UFA contract play out, and only trading for minor cheap rentals, but we does not have any sure fire decent young goalies in the pipeline now.

 

[LokiDog]

You and I wouldn’t make good real life friends because we agree on everything.

Well, we agree about Shesty and Panarin at least.

This is exactly how I feel. It also adds to the pain when we lose against rando goalies and get to see our HOFers dealing with the mental anguish associated with that.

That’s funny because I was just reading this post of yours in the other thread:

I don’t even care about having a dynasty. I was excited because I thought we were going to be able to watch a great player day in and day out for 15 years.

I watch the NHL to be entertained. One team a year wins the Cup, and that’s nice, but the real pleasure is in getting to watch these great players do great things. Watching McDavid is a privilege. Rooting for him with your favorite team is on another level than that.

I’m not jealous that we don’t have a dynasty. I’m jealous that the guys we got when we finally got to pick high are just guys. They don’t do anything crazy/entertaining like the rest of the league’s elite do.

Maybe they’ll get there one day. I have my doubts because rooting for this team is just pain.

and I was like damn, this guy just gets it. This is exactly how I feel. I’d definitely be “happier” as a fan if we were like a bubble team that was f***ing flat out exciting to watch. Pre-Covid shutdown Rangers hockey was exciting for a few months there and everything recent that was before or after has just been like watching paint dry.

 

[Fitzy]

The 'goalies don't matter' may be the Quants worst take. And they have several.

 

[Synergy27]

The 'goalies don't matter' may be the Quants worst take. And they have several.

And nobody serious has this take.

Goalies obviously matter. What is less obvious, and less predictable, is that basically any random goalie can run hot for an extended stretch and put up better numbers than the elite at the position. This doesn’t happen at other positions. Jimmy Vesey is never going to go on a heater and outscore McDavid.

I won’t even get into the incremental differences between good and great goalies and how that should be valued with respect to the cap. Not will I bring up how goaltending success is greatly impacted by how the team in front of him plays, and how that needs to be a major consideration when allocating scarce cap space.

 

[Luger]

The only 2 big time players who should remain are Igor and Fox because they have long careers ahead of them (goalies start later, play longer).

The rest needs to be blown up in favor of kids and picks so for once we build properly: Mika, Kreider, Panarin, Trochek, Trouba all need to get traded due to their age.

 

[Machinehead]

The 'goalies don't matter' may be the Quants worst take. And they have several.

I'll keep that in mind when the SCF is Sergei Bobrovsky who hasn't cracked .915 is six years versus Vegas and whichever of their like, five backups Bruce Cassidy pulled out of the tumbler that round.

 

[NickyFotiu]

We missed the playoffs for 7 years largely because of bad goaltending. Many of those teams got slammed for their bad defense but it was more bad goaltending. If those team had good goaltending we would have made the playoffs in most those years.

 

[Mandar]

Ah yes....the loony off season threads have begun...

Let's contact Mike Dunham to come back and trade Igor....

 

[Machinehead]

Maybe this analogy helps.

It's been long understood in baseball that first base doesn't matter. In terms of defensive analytics, it's barely better than being a DH.

If you watch baseball, the importance of the position is clear - they touch the ball on every infield play and are relied on to save their teammates when a questionable throw is made.

It's not that the position isn't important, it's that everyone is good at it. You can teach any major leaguer to play first base.

Similarly, it's actually hard to find a goaltender that isn't a solid starter. The position has been technically perfected to the point where anybody with the athleticism can be taught to do it an NHL level. There's way more good goalies in pro hockey than positions to fill.

"Tell that to the Devils!!" They beat us. It wasn't exactly a hard series for them and their shitty goaltending posted like a .970.

 

[Machinehead]

Or, put more simply, it matters as a game mechanic.

It doesn't matter as a roster building goal.

 

[Fitzy]

We missed the playoffs for 7 years largely because of bad goaltending. Many of those teams got slammed for their bad defense but it was more bad goaltending. If those team had good goaltending we would have made the playoffs in most those years.

And as long as everyone in this thread is already selecting on the dependent variable, it bears noting that the Flyers are celebrating a Stanley Cup championship with someone not named "Leighton" between the pipes.

 

[Leonardo87]

Really goes to show how good Hank was, since he did not have a stacked team like this in front of him. But Igor is more than fine, no reason to trade him.

 

[Fitzy]

Really goes to show how good Hank was, since he did not have a stacked team like this in front of him. But Igor is more than fine, no reason to trade him.

I think if I was to make the case for trading Shesterkin, it'd be as follows.

Let's say he goes gangbusters again next season. .930+

The guy is looking at a 8 year, 10+ million dollar contract on his next deal. (Possibly a lot more)

Is that the appropriate investment? Setting aside emotional attachment to the notion of NYR as a franchise with a legacy of 'career goaltenders' (Eddie, Beezer, Richter, Hank)

The question is whether that money might be better allocated elsewhere. I think that's a legitimate conversation we should be having. The downside is that goalies get shit in terms of trades.

 

[Leonardo87]

I think if I was to make the case for trading Shesterkin, it'd be as follows.

Let's say he goes gangbusters again next season. .930+

The guy is looking at a 8 year, 10+ million dollar contract on his next deal. (Possibly a lot more)

Is that the appropriate investment? Setting emotional attachment to the notion of NYR as a franchise with a legacy of 'career goaltenders' (Eddie, Beezer, Richter, Hank)

The question is whether that money might be better allocated elsewhere. I think that's a legitimate conversation we should be having. The downside is that goalies get shit in terms of trades.

I don't think he will put those numbers up, but if he does, then it certainly is a discussion.

 

[bl02]

Competent goaltending is still very important and how can not every single Ranger fan not also be a huge fan of Igor? Problem is in a cap world we can not allocate 10/11 million plus to a goalie. Yeah yeah I know if this is the year Bob wins it making 10 million plus why can't we? well it makes it super hard to build the right team when your goalie is eating up that much money.

I think if I was to make the case for trading Shesterkin, it'd be as follows.

Let's say he goes gangbusters again next season. .930+

The guy is looking at a 8 year, 10+ million dollar contract on his next deal. (Possibly a lot more)

Is that the appropriate investment? Setting aside emotional attachment to the notion of NYR as a franchise with a legacy of 'career goaltenders' (Eddie, Beezer, Richter, Hank)

The question is whether that money might be better allocated elsewhere. I think that's a legitimate conversation we should be having. The downside is that goalies get shit in terms of trades.

Yep hate to say it but it's probably gonna be ride or die with Shesty until his contract is up. Love him and his competitiveness but we can't give any goalie 10 million plus for 8 years.

 

[irishlaxburger2]

We missed the playoffs for 7 years largely because of bad goaltending. Many of those teams got slammed for their bad defense but it was more bad goaltending. If those team had good goaltending we would have made the playoffs in most those years.

Would making the playoffs have helped out those teams or this organization at all? We weren't winning a Cup those years.

If anything, average to below-average Ranger teams *making* the Playoffs due to goaltending and at the expense of building a strong 5v5 roster may actually be the problem.

 

[SA16]

The problem isn't paying a goalie. It's paying the goalie and then trying to insulate him with good defense. If you have a top goalie you should be playing as high variance as possible run and gun back and forth up the ice trading chances.

 

[duhmetreE]

"The case for trading your best player"

my case would be....

"how about we actually build a competent team with competent coaching in front of him"

 

[Peltz]

The only 2 big time players who should remain are Igor and Fox because they have long careers ahead of them (goalies start later, play longer).

The rest needs to be blown up in favor of kids and picks so for once we build properly: Mika, Kreider, Panarin, Trochek, Trouba all need to get traded due to their age.

I’d say Miller is maybe in the conversation of “big time” player that you keep if you consider a top 4 defensemen “big time”.

He has a bad end of the year but I think he bounces back to elite form next season. The suspension messed him up.