The Case For Bringing Back The Core

[Antropovsky]

In hindsight JT was a $9m player but he was a UFA and Lou had offered $11mx8=$88m. JT did not ask for $88m over 7 years like some UFAs ask for.

Even so, $11.64 x 5 is how much over 8 years for a player who just reached 1 PPG. IMO it should have been Eichel money for 5 years or McDavid money for 8 years but "we can and we will" thought he was smarter than everybody else.

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Then getting bent over by Skip, was the cherry on top and we were done.

Matthews had 37 goals and 73 points playing with johnsson, Kapanen and Marleau that year. His point totals are incredible given his linemates. He would've had 88 points in 82 games had he played 82 games. Marner had 94 playing with 28 year old Tavares and Hyman

 

[4thline]

I'm sure they wanted it, but would they have been able to demand or get it if Tavares hadn't been given so much first? At worst, his contract certainly made it a lot easier for their agents.

If Dubas hadn't signed Tavares, and the highest salary on the team was Marleau at $6.25M instead of JT at $11M, would Matty and Mitch have gotten as much?

Yes. If Matthews gave one single shit about on team comparables vs. his league wide value and playing his hand for all its worth he wouldn't have signed for as much as he did. JT's contract as signed would be better used by the team in negotiation than Matthews agent

 

[seanlinden]

There was an Elliotte Friedman quote to something along the lines of "they want to de-prioritize the core 4".... and I think that's absolutely the correct vision. For too long, pretty much every other forward position on the roster has been given somewhat of a "free pass" in terms expected contribution.... they don't necessarily need to all score, but the team needs a much "deeper" identity.

The problem is -- you spend all that money on the core 4, and you have to have a revolving door of depth behind them.... anyone who establishes their worth prices themselves out.

The Salary cap went up $1m from 21-22 to 22-23... but pretty much that entire increase went towards the goaltending position in going from Campbell & Mrazek to Murray & Samsonov.

There is a path for 23-24 -- figure you can get Samsonov at $3.5m, you have Woll at $767k, get rid of Murray, and that's

Even if you figure you can get Samsonov on a $3.5m deal, get rid of Murray, and that's $2.2m of additional space, plus the $1m cap increase, where you can go to work a little bit with $3.3m of incremental space.

The challenge is, as I see it, it's shortlived. Matthews probably wants $1.5m more, Nylander probably wants a $3.5m increase. They've just undone your savings from the previous year, and sure, the cap is probably going to go up $3-4m -- that's just going to have UFA salaries skyrocket that year.


As for Matthews... to me, it's all about the money. If he wants to do a short term deal to ensure he remains in control of his career, that's one thing & workable. If he wants to do a short term deal to ensure he's keeping up with salary cap inflation, then I think you've gotta trade him. You can't win with a marquee player who is focused on ensuring he has the highest cap hit possible throughout, as that same player is also ensuring that the team around him is as non-competitive as possible.

To me, if Matthews wants to sign a 2 or 3 year deal -- great, 2 years at $11.5m or 3 years at $12m. His last deal was signed based on signed a deal based on the assuming the cap would jump substantially, which it obviously hasn't. Give the Leafs a legitimate chance to win with him, and be underpaid for a couple of years.

 

[rumman]

So far but if Simba gets paid large, the Hyenas will be right behind.
The Cap was constructed out of whack and the shorter term deals ensured it probably stays that way.

the situation seems hopeless until you consider trading away your cap issues imo............

Yes and unfortunately we are on our 3rd round of contracts, usually what guys are getting paid after they’ve won and depleted most of the depth in the organization.

We’ve skipped the winning and went straight to deplete and pay.

shortcuts................

 

[rumman]

I mean, the case is simple. The team is really good as functionally constructed.

not come spring unless your definition of success is the President's Trophy............

 

[rumman]

Oh come on now, Marner and Matthews were greedy and wanted to take all they could. They only thought of themselves

Well, I guess we will see with their next contract negotiations if they are in it to win it, or in it for the money. It can’t be both!

I really hate these players taking the team to the woodshed, but it's the GM's job to ensure it doesn't happen. I hate greedy players, but I really hate greedy players that don't live up to their contracts............

I don’t see any quotes, did you?

fishing stories, tall tales from scuttlebutt lodge............

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

It wouldn't have changed anything, because UFA contracts have nothing to do with post-ELC contracts.

Then why did we pay so much and get so little term from our 3 young RFA playing guys? We were told that we had to buy up the UFA years at premium prices....seems we were the only ones who did that. Everyone else had their RFA's sign much lengthier and reasonable deals. I remember a certain young GM saying that the league had changed and everyone had to start paying the RFA's bigger money....seems like the email went to the spam box of every other team.

 

[rumman]

No.
Matthews wanted all he could get.
Marner wanted to be treated as equal to Matthews.

JT didn't factor into it

have to agree with this statement...........

 

[rumman]

5 healthy scratch him until they can trade him

they don't have the stones to trade him, doubt they have the stones to sit him. It's business what player would consider signing here after seeing that tacit employed? Ditto for the scenarios of whatever evil form of punishment proposed to get JT to waive his NMC, you ask him if he says no you live with the contract term the team proposed to him like a moral organization does..........

 

[Dekes For Days]

So Dubas could have said "you're post ELC and JT was UFA, so there's no way you are getting anywhere near what we gave him"?
Wow! That makes his deals to them even worse!

I'm sure the agent would know what a comparable is, and wouldn't have to be told by the GM to use appropriate ones.
Which is why they got contracts consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts, not UFA contracts.

Then why did we pay so much and get so little term from our 3 young RFA playing guys?

We paid the biggest contracts because they had some of the best pre-signing periods of any young players throughout the cap era. That's how this works.
Matthews and Marner got the 6th and 10th highest value post-ELC contracts in the cap era, term considered.
Their pre-signing periods ranked higher than that, and their careers are trending to rank higher than that.

 

[ToneDog]

Matthews had 37 goals and 73 points playing with johnsson, Kapanen and Marleau that year. His point totals are incredible given his linemates. He would've had 88 points in 82 games had he played 82 games. Marner had 94 playing with 28 year old Tavares and Hyman

88 points in 82 games does not merit $11.640mx5. Willie had 87 in 82 this season, he's not getting anywhere near that.

 

[4thline]

88 points in 82 games does not merit $11.640mx5. Willie had 87 in 82 this season, he's not getting anywhere near that.

I think a lot of fans (not just Leaf) are going be extremely vexed as post covid rising cap allows the distortion from backdiving deals to finally unwind and stars to get back to their pre-2013 earnings levels

 

[ToneDog]

I'm sure the agent would know what a comparable is, and wouldn't have to be told by the GM to use appropriate ones.
Which is why they got contracts consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts, not UFA contracts.

We paid the biggest contracts because they had some of the best pre-signing periods of any young players throughout the cap era. That's how this works.
Matthews and Marner got the 6th and 10th highest value post-ELC contracts in the cap era, term considered.
Their pre-signing periods ranked higher than that, and their careers are trending to rank higher than that.

This is your go-to line. Care to give us some examples ??

 

[Dekes For Days]

Care to give us some examples ??

What would you like an example of? I already explained above how both their contracts and pre-signing periods compare to the history of post-ELC contracts.

 

[ToneDog]

What would you like an example of? I already explained above how both their contracts and pre-signing periods compare to the history of post-ELC contracts.

You said, "Matthews and Marner got the 6th and 10th highest value post-ELC contracts in the cap era, term considered."

So which players got the 1st to 5th highest? Don't forget shorter term brings the AAV down.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So which players got the 1st to 5th highest?

Crosby, Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, Malkin, and McDavid.

 

[ToneDog]

Crosby, Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, Malkin, and McDavid.

Are you talking cap % and normalizing it to 8 years term ?? My understanding is Matty was getting a higher AAV than McDavid for 8 years but they brought the term down to 5 years to get it to 11.640.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Because the Islanders were willing to overpay so their franchise player didn't walk for nothing. And the Sharks were acting in foolish desperation and shortly after paid an injured Erik Karlsson 11.5 as a free agent, ultimately watching their team crumble before their eyes due to spending like drunken sailors.

Just because those two teams were foolish enough to offer Tavares even more, the Leafs should not be vindicated for moderately-to-massively overpaying for a luxury in Tavares on the open market. Especially when the Leafs supposedly had leverage because Tavares wanted to play in Toronto.

Not only was the Tavares deal an overpayment, but the halo effect it had on signing our own young players was detrimental. Like I said in real time when it happened -- the Tavares deal was a disaster before the ink dried. Shanny and Dubas just couldn't help themselves. They wanted to be the smartest guys in the room and make the big splash as opposed to sound hockey decisions.

Read my entire post. That was not what I was saying. I even said they shouldn’t have signed him. The point I was trying to make was that our two prima donnas showed their true colours in those negotiations, wanting more because we gave it to Tavares, and they may even do so in these next ones.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Are you talking cap % and normalizing it to 8 years term ?? My understanding is Matty was getting a higher AAV than McDavid for 8 years but they brought the term down to 5 years to get it to 11.640.

Of course we're talking cap hit percentage. There's nothing else to discuss. Matthews would have had a higher AAV for 8 years, because he signed under a higher cap, but his cap hit percentage still would have been below McDavid's, even with McDavid taking a full percentage point off his contract post-negotiation.

 

[ToneDog]

Of course we're talking cap hit percentage. There's nothing else to discuss. Matthews would have had a higher AAV for 8 years, because he signed under a higher cap, but his cap hit percentage still would have been below McDavid's, even with McDavid taking a full percentage point off his contract post-negotiation.

So then the question is whether Matty deserved the cap % he was given based on the production 2.75 years into his ELC (I believe he signed his 5 year deal in Feb of that season), I'd say no and am pretty sure I am not alone.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Yes. If Matthews gave one single shit about on team comparables vs. his league wide value and playing his hand for all its worth he wouldn't have signed for as much as he did. JT's contract as signed would be better used by the team in negotiation than Matthews agent

Do you think "we overpaid him, so we won't overpay you" is a better strategy than "you overpaid him, so overpay me too"?

How many other 2C players made $11M at that time?

 

[Dekes For Days]

So then the question is whether Matty deserved the cap % he was given based on the production 2.75 years into his ELC (I believe he signed his 5 year deal in Feb of that season)

Yes, he signed Feb 5th of that season, while on a 50 goal, 100 point pace, which many seem to forget.
Who, other than Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid, and Malkin have even an argument for a better pre-signing period?
How does the at worst 5th best pre-signing period not deserve the 6th highest value contract? And how could anybody consider it to be so outrageous that we should continue to be upset about it 4 years later, even after they've continued to grow into a Hart winner and trend to be one of the best players in the cap era?

 

[notDatsyuk]

I'm sure the agent would know what a comparable is, and wouldn't have to be told by the GM to use appropriate ones.
Which is why they got contracts consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts, not UFA contracts.

We paid the biggest contracts because they had some of the best pre-signing periods of any young players throughout the cap era. That's how this works.
Matthews and Marner got the 6th and 10th highest value post-ELC contracts in the cap era, term considered.
Their pre-signing periods ranked higher than that, and their careers are trending to rank higher than that.

I'm confused.

I keep hearing that we had to overpay JT because you have to pay more for UFAs than for RFAs.

Then I hear we have to pay more for RFAs because they're younger.

And we have to pay more for less term? Or more for longer term? Either way, we seem to have paid more than other teams.

From what I can tell, these requirements for higher payments seem to only apply to Toronto.

 

[ToneDog]

Yes, he signed Feb 5th of that season, while on a 50 goal, 100 point pace, which many seem to forget.
Who, other than Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid, and Malkin have even an argument for a better pre-signing period?
How does the at worst 5th best pre-signing period not deserve the 6th highest value contract? And how could anybody consider it to be so outrageous that we should continue to be upset about it 4 years later, even after they've continued to grow into a Hart winner and trend to be one of the best players in the cap era?

Matty ended up with 73 points in 68 games. Pasta just ended the season with 60+g and 115 points and signed for $11,250mx8. Has the cap risen that much in 4 years ?? Matty was paid as a generational player like McDavid and Eichel were. I expected him to come in between Eich and McD for 8 years. As for fans being upset, could it be because he has failed to be the player he claimed to be in the playoffs and he is due to ring the bell again ??

At the end of the day, Matty can do himself a favour and save himself a lot of grief. Take $100K more than MacKinnon for 8 years like MacKinnon took $100K more than McDavid. Now we wait and see what this guy is made of.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm confused.
I keep hearing that we had to overpay JT because you have to pay more for UFAs than for RFAs.
Then I hear we have to pay more for RFAs because they're younger.
And we have to pay more for less term? Or more for longer term?
Either way, we seem to have paid more than other teams.

You will generally have to pay more for a UFA than would for an equivalent player that is an RFA, though the discrepancy is often exaggerated, and is most pronounced in the middle class of the NHL, not the upper class.
As for term, on a post-ELC contract, increasing term generally means increasing the cap hit, since you are adding on years that are the most valuable.
On a UFA contract, increasing term generally means decreasing the cap hit, since you are adding on years that are the least valuable.
We haven't seemed to have paid more than other teams at all.