The Case For Bringing Back The Core

[Dekes For Days]

Matty ended up with 73 points in 68 games. Pasta just ended the season with 60+g and 115 points and signed for $11,250mx8.

I'm not sure what you hope to accomplish by cherry picking a 21-year old statline that occured after signing a post-ELC contract, and comparing it to a cherry picked 26-year old statline that occured after signing a UFA contract, that doesn't accurately represent the player and what he's been.

Matty was paid as a generational player like McDavid and Eichel were. I expected him to come in between Eich and McD for 8 years.

Matthews was not paid like a generational player. He was paid like the 6th best player at time of signing in the cap era. And he was that, at least.
Buffalo and Edmonton didn't really have the same cap considerations that we did at that time, so they opted to pay more in cap hit for more term.
We opted to go the route that countless successful teams before us did, with 5 and 6 year terms to leave a bit of room to more immediately surround them.

 

[rumman]

I think a lot of fans (not just Leaf) are going be extremely vexed as post covid rising cap allows the distortion from backdiving deals to finally unwind and stars to get back to their pre-2013 earnings levels

Anyone assuming the cap will go up doesn’t understand betting on long shots is usually a stupid strategy, it kills me how naive some people are……..

 

[hullsy47]

The Dubasites argued 5 years and then 8 was better than 8 and then 8 because you get the best 13 years of his career. Now he has all the leverage and probably isn't even entertaining 8 years. LOL.

u got it.dubas was so arrogant he thought he'd have a cup or 2

 

[Nineteen67]

they don't have the stones to trade him, doubt they have the stones to sit him. It's business what player would consider signing here after seeing that tacit employed? Ditto for the scenarios of whatever evil form of punishment proposed to get JT to waive his NMC, you ask him if he says no you live with the contract term the team proposed to him like a moral organization does..........

There’s that.

Unless they pull a rabbit out of a hat, next year probably doesn’t matter so if he’s not part of the future keep him away from the team as much as possible.

 

[Maple Leaf]

maybe you can dissolve them 1 for 2 mid players each and get a core 8

 

[baton elevated]

I'm not sure what you hope to accomplish by cherry picking a 21-year old statline that occured after signing a post-ELC contract, and comparing it to a cherry picked 26-year old statline that occured after signing a UFA contract, that doesn't accurately represent the player and what he's been.

Matthews was not paid like a generational player. He was paid like the 6th best player at time of signing in the cap era. And he was that, at least.
Buffalo and Edmonton didn't really have the same cap considerations that we did at that time, so they opted to pay more in cap hit for more term.
We opted to go the route that countless successful teams before us did, with 5 and 6 year terms to leave a bit of room to more immediately surround them.

If we underscore your phrasing of AM being paid as a top 6 player in the league when he signed the first deal, shouldn't we also consider that today? The Leafs pay him as a top 6 player in the league not as THEE top player in the league. A slight raise from here if at all is all that is warranted. Otherwise we simply have to move on.

 

[4thline]

Do you think "we overpaid him, so we won't overpay you" is a better strategy than "you overpaid him, so overpay me too"?

How many other 2C players made $11M at that time?

No, I think that "we just signed an elite 1c ufa coming off an 84 point season for 11x7, therefore you an rfa pacing 88 points are not worth the 13x8 you claim" is a far more rational statement than "you just signed a elite 1c ufa coming off an 84 point season for 11x7 there fore I, an rfa 1c pacing 88 points am clearly worth 13x8"

I also think that anyone that considered either of those players a 2c level player in 2018 an idiot, and anyone that watched the previous 3 cups go to crosby/malkin, crosby/malkin, backstrom/kuznetsov and still clung to the idea that the 2nd best c on a team should be paid like/ becomes a 2c level player... also an idiot

 

[Trapper]

Anyone assuming the cap will go up doesn’t understand betting on long shots is usually a stupid strategy, it kills me how naive some people are……..

Look how much people are willing to accept and the excuses they will come up. Not surprised at all.
People have seen the events of the last 5 years but still don’t see it

 

[rumman]

Look how much people are willing to accept and the excuses they will come up. Not surprised at all.
People have seen the events of the last 5 years but still don’t see it

 

[4thline]

Anyone assuming the cap will go up doesn’t understand betting on long shots is usually a stupid strategy, it kills me how naive some people are……..

Unless you think that either
A- the league is going to retract
B- the league is going to let the real price of tickets/merchandise fall in an inflationary economy

It's fairly safe to assume a certain level of growth of top line HRR which contractually leads to a rising cap.

Couple that with pandemic escrow payback ending, the multi-decade growth trends of pro-sports in general, the multi-decade trend of the NHL cap and I'd say that anyone who characterizes the prospect of the cap going up over the next several years as a "long-shot" is the naive one. Cap increases will almost certainly be a factor in negotiations.

NHL salary cap could increase by at least $4 million in 2023-24 | NHL.com

Contingent upon escrow debt from players being repaid in full by end of season, Commissioner Bettman says

www.nhl.com

NHL salary cap expected to rise $1 million for next season | NHL.com

Commissioner Bettman also talks Senators sale, fan code of conduct at BOG meeting

www.nhl.com

5.7 Billion in HRR translates to an 89 million dollar cap.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If we underscore your phrasing of AM being paid as a top 6 player in the league when he signed the first deal, shouldn't we also consider that today? The Leafs pay him as a top 6 player in the league not as THEE top player in the league. A slight raise from here if at all is all that is warranted. Otherwise we simply have to move on.

I think you misunderstood what was meant. We're talking about the entire cap era, not just the current league.
Relative to everybody that signed a post-ELC contract in the cap era, Matthews had earned, at worst, the 5th highest value contract, and he received the 6th highest value contract.
And now for his next contract, the Leafs would be paying him for how he fits within the UFA contract landscape throughout the cap era, and while I haven't done as much research into that as I have for post-ELC contracts, I've yet to find much that would be deserving of a bigger UFA contract than Matthews, given his quality and age.
Because of how contracts work in the NHL, giving Matthews the highest current AAV wouldn't be suggesting that he's the best player in the league. Just like Mackinnon getting the highest AAV didn't mean he was the best player in the league.

 

[baton elevated]

I think you misunderstood what was meant. We're talking about the entire cap era, not just the current league.
Relative to everybody that signed a post-ELC contract in the cap era, Matthews had earned, at worst, the 5th highest value contract, and he received the 6th highest value contract.
And now for his next contract, the Leafs would be paying him for how he fits within the UFA contract landscape throughout the cap era, and while I haven't done as much research into that as I have for post-ELC contracts, I've yet to find much that would be deserving of a bigger UFA contract than Matthews, given his quality and age.
Because of how contracts work in the NHL, giving Matthews the highest current AAV wouldn't be suggesting that he's the best player in the league. Just like Mackinnon getting the highest AAV didn't mean he was the best player in the league.

Hope you are right, for the teams sake.

 

[notDatsyuk]

You will generally have to pay more for a UFA than would for an equivalent player that is an RFA, though the discrepancy is often exaggerated, and is most pronounced in the middle class of the NHL, not the upper class.
As for term, on a post-ELC contract, increasing term generally means increasing the cap hit, since you are adding on years that are the most valuable.
On a UFA contract, increasing term generally means decreasing the cap hit, since you are adding on years that are the least valuable.
We haven't seemed to have paid more than other teams at all.

So for Tavares, we gave maximum term (so we should have had a lower cap hit), but still paid a higher cap hit, unless you think $11M wasn't an overpayment. even though he was a middle class, because he was a UFA.

And we paid a higher cap hit for Marner and Matthews, even though we got shorter term.

And you don't think any of the three were overpayments?

 

[notDatsyuk]

No, I think that "we just signed an elite 1c ufa coming off an 84 point season for 11x7, therefore you an rfa pacing 88 points are not worth the 13x8 you claim" is a far more rational statement than "you just signed a elite 1c ufa coming off an 84 point season for 11x7 there fore I, an rfa 1c pacing 88 points am clearly worth 13x8"

I also think that anyone that considered either of those players a 2c level player in 2018 an idiot, and anyone that watched the previous 3 cups go to crosby/malkin, crosby/malkin, backstrom/kuznetsov and still clung to the idea that the 2nd best c on a team should be paid like/ becomes a 2c level player... also an idiot

OK - I'm confused. Who is the "elite 1c ufa'? I thought we were talking about Tavares.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So for Tavares, we gave maximum term (so we should have had a lower cap hit), but still paid a higher cap hit, unless you think $11M wasn't an overpayment. even though he was a middle class, because he was a UFA.
And we paid a higher cap hit for Marner and Matthews, even though we got shorter term.

Higher and lower cap hit than what? Matthews, Marner, and Tavares aren't equal players. Tavares was in their range in cap hit because he was UFA.
13.84% of the cap for the age 28-34 seasons of Tavares. That doesn't seem unreasonable or inconsistent with history.

 

[Captain Crunch]

I would like to trade Nylander and keep the other 3. I would preferably like to get rid of JT but I can’t see anyone touching his contract without major retention or draining our assets.

i’ve seen reports that Bunting is as good as gone . I would love to try and sign Tyler bertuzzi as a UFA .

Also try and trade for Clayton keller . Both players are gritty and would balance what we have and complement our needs

Bertuzzi Matthews Marner
Knies JT Keller

Would love to see this top 6

Keller makes $7.15 million, not sure how much Bertuzzi was making, but both would have to be more than what Nylander will get. So where will the money come from to improve our d, resign Samsonov or acquire another goalie, and fill out the rest of our bottom six?

 

[rumman]

Unless you think that either
A- the league is going to retract
B- the league is going to let the real price of tickets/merchandise fall in an inflationary economy

It's fairly safe to assume a certain level of growth of top line HRR which contractually leads to a rising cap.

Couple that with pandemic escrow payback ending, the multi-decade growth trends of pro-sports in general, the multi-decade trend of the NHL cap and I'd say that anyone who characterizes the prospect of the cap going up over the next several years as a "long-shot" is the naive one. Cap increases will almost certainly be a factor in negotiations.

NHL salary cap could increase by at least $4 million in 2023-24 | NHL.com

Contingent upon escrow debt from players being repaid in full by end of season, Commissioner Bettman says

www.nhl.com

NHL salary cap expected to rise $1 million for next season | NHL.com

Commissioner Bettman also talks Senators sale, fan code of conduct at BOG meeting

www.nhl.com

5.7 Billion in HRR translates to an 89 million dollar cap.

Or people stop buying tickets, I know if I had to feed my family or watch hockey what my priority would be………

 

[4thline]

OK - I'm confused. Who is the "elite 1c ufa'? I thought we were talking about Tavares.

Yes, John Tavares. The guy that was top 2 amongst NHL C's in goals and points over the 3 years before signing, top 10 since entering the league.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Greedy is one thing, but if Dubas had not signed Tavares, or had signed him for about $9M instead of $11M, would Marner have taken $8.9M instead of $10.9M? Would Matthews have taken $9.6M instead of $11.6M?

Certainly their agents couldn't have pointed to JT's contract and used that as a comparable for such overpayments. Of course a competent GM wouldn't have folded that easily, but that's another story.

That was the unfortunate thing, as much as JT wanted to come to Toronto, he wasn't taking that big of a discount. Again, that was the first step that should not have happened, signing JT. And I totally agree that Dubas should not have been handling those negotiations. But here is where I'm torn in regards to Shanahan (and MLSE for that matter), weren't they the ones ultimately responsible for all this happening? Not to mention, they were ready to sign Dubas to a contract extension after these playoffs! I'm not sure we have seen the end of this total screw up!!!

 

[Captain Crunch]

I'd love to see Tre try to build a deep team around the big 4. It's not going to happen. A team like Vegas is way better than Toronto and they don't have as much "talent" as the big 4 forwards. You need to re-balance this team. Look at how a team like Florida game planned against us. And now they are getting dismantled by Vegas, a vastly superior team. How can there be a case for keeping the core 4?

Anyone with half a brain should have been able to see that by paying 3 forwards over $33 million, it would be next to impossible to build the necessary depth in the other areas. This is what concerns me with Shanahan and the board, they were prepared to extend Dubas after all these failed playoff attempts.
Can you see how things are going to be different? The more I think about it, I can't see that they will be.

 

[ToneDog]

Anyone with half a brain should have been able to see that by paying 3 forwards over $33 million, it would be next to impossible to build the necessary depth in the other areas. This is what concerns me with Shanahan and the board, they were prepared to extend Dubas after all these failed playoff attempts.
Can you see how things are going to be different? The more I think about it, I can't see that they will be.

They still refuse to see it.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Unless you think that either
A- the league is going to retract
B- the league is going to let the real price of tickets/merchandise fall in an inflationary economy

It's fairly safe to assume a certain level of growth of top line HRR which contractually leads to a rising cap.

Couple that with pandemic escrow payback ending, the multi-decade growth trends of pro-sports in general, the multi-decade trend of the NHL cap and I'd say that anyone who characterizes the prospect of the cap going up over the next several years as a "long-shot" is the naive one. Cap increases will almost certainly be a factor in negotiations.

NHL salary cap could increase by at least $4 million in 2023-24 | NHL.com

Contingent upon escrow debt from players being repaid in full by end of season, Commissioner Bettman says

www.nhl.com

NHL salary cap expected to rise $1 million for next season | NHL.com

Commissioner Bettman also talks Senators sale, fan code of conduct at BOG meeting

www.nhl.com

5.7 Billion in HRR translates to an 89 million dollar cap.

Bally Sports. Look up those words.

 

[TOGuy14]

Anyone with half a brain should have been able to see that by paying 3 forwards over $33 million, it would be next to impossible to build the necessary depth in the other areas. This is what concerns me with Shanahan and the board, they were prepared to extend Dubas after all these failed playoff attempts.
Can you see how things are going to be different? The more I think about it, I can't see that they will be.

I don't think it is the cost so much as the type of players.

You can drop a dump truck of dollars at the feet of guys like McDavid and Drai because they go like gangbusters in the playoffs and will carry you through a couple rounds alone.

Looking at Matthews / Marner / Tavares though we got three high paid stars who just wilt under pressure...

 

[Captain Crunch]

I don't think it is the cost so much as the type of players.

You can drop a dump truck of dollars at the feet of guys like McDavid and Drai because they go like gangbusters in the playoffs and will carry you through a couple rounds alone.

Looking at Matthews / Marner / Tavares though we got three high paid stars who just wilt under pressure...

Agreed! However, it is still difficult to build a Cup contender with that cap allotment.

 

[rumman]

They still refuse to see it.