The Athletic has ranked their top 30 NHL teams... Leafs and Flames at the top

[Martin Skoula]

Lol at lumping in the idea of players being 'clutch' with quack medicine practitioners.

The idea of clutchness refers to human psychology, you know, also science.

Where these models (and STEM lords in general) constantly fall apart is that they forget that they are quantifying human behaviour, not which balls will pop out of a bingo bubble.

Of course some players are more clutch than others, have you ever in your life played a single sport? Ever noticed how some players are way better in practice, or way better when the stakes are low (like scoring a hattrick in an 8-3 win), but then disappear when the stakes are raised?

Because humans react to pressure differently. The absolute smugness of thinking that 'teh numberz' can predict everything and that there's no difference between who might score the 7th goal in a 7-1 win in January, versus an overtime game in game 7 just shows a hilariously naive misunderstanding of...well, several things.

But you can very easily measure who scores more in a blowout vs scoring twice in a 2-1 win and factor that in, game state adjustments are pretty freely available.

In the long run, clutch is basically the ability to stay on your million-rep muscle memory rather than the pressure putting you into "manual" mode. Even something as easy as breathing gets noticeably worse as soon as you start doing it consciously unless you have practice controlling it. That and willingness to take risks/sacrifice is all it is, we can make somewhat accurate comparisons of how good players are at doing that just off numbers. It's better than "I remember this guy scoring a big goal at the WJC so he's clutch" while ignoring that most of his points come late in blowouts against non-playoff teams in his pro caree anyway.

If you asked someone to name a clutch player off the top of their head, I would bet that Oshie, Eberle, and Williams would make up half the responses. Of those it's really only Williams that's really impressive and there's probably a handful of guys you'd never think of consistently breaking the game open or tying it under pressure.

 

[Rubi]

Moneypuck just came out with their playoff odds and they have the Avs, Leafs, Stars, Flames, Canes, and Panthers at or near the top. Dom's rankings are pretty much in the same ballpark as Moneypuck's..

 

[Based Anime Fan]

Did you watch the Leafs at all last year? I think there is a close to 0% chance the goaltenders play worse than Campbell/Mrazek last year.

Do you truly believe that 'Outscore your Defensive issues' is a valid team strategy?

 

[SurferBroChad]

once again proving that the athletic is full of idiots who justify their bizarre predictions with pie charts

 

[pabst blue ribbon]

Do you truly believe that 'Outscore your Defensive issues' is a valid team strategy?

They finished with 115 points last season

 

[Kennedys]

If the Leafs are #1 despite their goalie duo, does that mean they have the best collection of skaters ever assembled in the league history ?

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

Did you watch the Leafs at all last year? I think there is a close to 0% chance the goaltenders play worse than Campbell/Mrazek last year.

I did. Did you see much of Murray or Samsonov? When they are bad, they are catastrophic.

If Murray's lateral movement doesn't improve, and Samsonov doesn't get his head screwed on straight (or Murray gets hurt), it's going to be a long year in Leaf land.

To be clear, they are a good enough team that they will be in a top 3 spot in their conference even if their goaltending shits the bed (unless key injuries), but it could definitely be worse than last year.

But you can very easily measure who scores more in a blowout vs scoring twice in a 2-1 win and factor that in, game state adjustments are pretty freely available.

In the long run, clutch is basically the ability to stay on your million-rep muscle memory rather than the pressure putting you into "manual" mode. Even something as easy as breathing gets noticeably worse as soon as you start doing it consciously unless you have practice controlling it. That and willingness to take risks/sacrifice is all it is, we can make somewhat accurate comparisons of how good players are at doing that just off numbers. It's better than "I remember this guy scoring a big goal at the WJC so he's clutch" while ignoring that most of his points come late in blowouts against non-playoff teams in his pro caree anyway.

If you asked someone to name a clutch player off the top of their head, I would bet that Oshie, Eberle, and Williams would make up half the responses. Of those it's really only Williams that's really impressive and there's probably a handful of guys you'd never think of consistently breaking the game open or tying it under pressure.

Except that there are so many parts of hockey that numbers don't catch.

It's not just about who scored the goal, it's who did their job to the best of their ability. Did the D man have the courage to pinch at the right time, or passively give up a 2-on-1 where nobody watching will call him the culprit, but it was his hesitation that caused the loss?

Hockey is full of examples like that, which stats can't quantify. Especially since 'clutch' situations are, by definition, small sample sizes.

 

[Byron Bitz]

The team that won the cup sitting comfortably at #3.

The team that hasn't won a round since 2004? #1.

The team that won the cup just lost two important players to free agency

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

Moneypuck just came out with their playoff odds and they have the Avs, Leafs, Stars, Flames, Canes, and Panthers at or near the top. Dom's rankings are pretty much in the same ballpark as Moneypuck's..

The Rangers less than 50% to make the playoffs and 15% less probability to make them than the Devils. Noice!

 

[PuckG]

Toronto must be leading in some advanced stat they like.

It’s what they call “pace.”

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Leafs are #1 in the team rankings and Flames are #2.

2022-23 NHL team previews: Projections and ranking of every NHL team

Between Sept. 19 and Oct. 4, we’re previewing all 32 NHL teams in order of predicted regular-season finish, according to Dom’s model.

theathletic.com

Other noteworthy teams:
3. Colorado
4. Florida
5. Minnesota

10. Edmonton
18. Vancouver
21. Winnipeg
22. Ottawa
31. Montreal

How accurate are these rankings? I think it is hard to argue with the top 2.

Full list:

32. Arizona Coyotes
31. Montreal Canadiens
30. Chicago Blackhawks
29. Buffalo Sabres
28. Philadelphia Flyers
27. Columbus Blue Jackets
26. San Jose Sharks
25. Anaheim Ducks
24. Detroit Red Wings
23. Seattle Kraken
22. Ottawa Senators
21. Winnipeg Jets
20. New York Islanders
19. New Jersey Devils
18. Vancouver Canucks
17. St. Louis Blues
16. Los Angeles Kings
15. Vegas Golden Knights
14. New York Rangers
13. Dallas Stars
12. Washington Capitals
11. Nashville Predators
10. Edmonton Oilers
9. Pittsburgh Penguins
8. Carolina Hurricanes
7. Tampa Bay Lightning
6. Boston Bruins
5. Minnesota Wild
4. Florida Panthers
3. Colorado Avalanche
2. Calgary Flames
1. Toronto Maple Leafs

Yet winning one round would somehow be considered “good enough” for the leafs. I can think of no other sport where the topped rank team has such low expectations

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

once again proving that the athletic is full of idiots who justify their bizarre predictions with pie charts

MoneyPuck <> The Athletic, Pie chart is a simple but effective way to show many numbers <> justify

 

[Spirits]

I think it is hard to argue with the top 2.

Of course you do. Lmao. If Edmonton was IN the top ten the troll job would have been too obvious.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Is this the same model that had Seattle as a playoff team last year?

 

[Field of Dreams]

It makes alot of sense the leafs are rated high in an advanced analytic model, given that advanced analytics drive many of the leaf's decisions.

 

[Maitz]

Habs will finish last by far trust me.

 

[ijuka]

It makes alot of sense the leafs are rated high in an advanced analytic model, given that advanced analytics drive many of the leaf's decisions.

I guess they're yet to hire goaltending analysts, however.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Is this the same model that had Seattle as a playoff team last year?

It's kind of weird how these models were high on Seattle last year, but aren't as high this year when they've actually improved as a roster.

Almost like they had to go back and tweak something in their formula that was putting too much weight on whatever the hell it was that Seattle was supposed to be good at because they realized that (whatever it is) doesn't actually result in actual goals and wins.

 

[Halakitlikethat]

Calgary has a whole different group. They brought in some really good players, and lost some really good players. We don’t know how the team is going to gel, so I’d have a real tough time having them as number 2.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

It's kind of weird how these models were high on Seattle last year, but aren't as high this year when they've actually improved as a roster.

Almost like they had to go back and tweak something in their formula that was putting too much weight on whatever the hell it was that Seattle was supposed to be good at because they realized that (whatever it is) doesn't actually result in actual goals and wins.

Grubauer had the worst GSAA in the league last year. He had always had a positive one in prior years. Maybe they didn’t predict that and now the effect of Grubauer is much less positive on the models given the only year he played more than 40 games, last year, he threw a 0.889 sv%. That‘s my guess.

 

[Chairman Maouth]

Is The Athletic trying to go out of business?

 

[Pantokrator]

I say the gutsiest call in the whole thing is having the Flyers ahead of Buffalo, moving up to #27 overall! Tortorella turning the franchise around!

I'd say if everything goes right and with no injuries and everyone plays up to their potential, this is a REAL possibility. Flyers max out at #27! Success! Watch out Buffalo!

I wouldn't be surprised to hear our management come out and talk about how finishing #27 is a fantastic goal, and one that indicates the team is worth watching and has a future. Who knows, maybe in 5 years the team can shoot for the #26 spot.

 

[Nineteen67]

The Flames are everyone’s favourite off-season flavour.

I’m sure they’ll have a great season, but they’re not getting through Edmonton, or Colorado in the playoffs.

Edmonton downgraded their goaltending and Calgary got better….

 

[Three On Zero]

Top 30? My condolences to the 2 teams that are so bad they don’t even get a mention